SWS MEMOS ON AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300170021-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 29, 2007
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: December 31, 1979
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2007/05/29: CIA-RDP83B01027R000300170021-7
S-0089/Sw'S
Si.:BJEuuT SWS ! cmos on Afghan i st v
JP.:
FROM Director, SWS
1. Per your request, enclosed are cpieof .,3i? th,? SW:'S -memoranda
or. ?Atl",lharilstan, through the presen=.. da l'. A suTrom?r'?? o` their content
anc' !'Uz"})O5r?. is g ven be_i -,w,
_'. Since one of the resnonsibiliti?s of Si''S seer: t? adr? lice
of warning iaT+A_: S1S, ?.': I;'f.F.ild L.O d(? our own jatsL (fort ltiT:
en _]-e :, ghcnl Gt si7 ... t , to pr.:vidn further materi:111
for E 1E!S-ITns
.it,'"nod! anU "anal ci: nr:ncip3e e;. lit.' w:li c-n ^
our
M 07
3. .:'his m-~nc w:= r~ ?_ ', t::c 7 ?
arr.: ~'c3"riapi:5 in Kabul Oki > ?iUt'Uyi_. 1L :rose'+:`~
I eCl the basic
rE aSOTI why we believe.-,
that t?2o Soviets Ib iti* r'?~]1 '_' combat units of
their ow: into Aighanistar.. We believed' that:
A. finless the itoii:enturn of tiie ncur-lencv vas reversed, the
Soviet client I iTee in i_~}31211fitill t~'u. ',C' Oi'er-rori:,i~. Th,_: Soviets
faced the prospect of be in s eviri.l a' as a r'. _ i , o ' No 1
~ Ca s ll^i irSL`Tk';[?':^.; ,
whether by a government ii:'.:tallad by the itisurpercv itself, or 'v a
government which took power because the Taraki-Amin regime proxe,d un-
able to stem the momentum of the in urtencv. Th 5 r%ujtust? mutiny was
an iridicat_'r that the DRA arm". whose COI1tiTTUed loyalty' was a key to the
survival of the Khaiqui st re^z:, wa:, no: re? ia1}ie.
B. The nr:)spectt s a uccess4 U1 S~" ie=t-en inc re : "rc'i iti.ca i
s? i.:'_i~:~ if the, \,er r 1\, -,,ir3t.',1-
_ _ _ ~,` n J SY view, the
hypetisc5i-, that thi `,i)4'.', t could r'}. which would main-
?4-T: '_'ti:^ MO:- -o*.., 'o'.. Lii_` to tl.d: s r c"... L?" L
at
th.. same time be acceptable to the rebels was at best a long "hot. By
Auzu!,t, the momt_altulc tit,-: insurgl:..,.y" had rl_a._hcd a point where. in
our \view, on)), the cob le e removal of the S o-,--ie LS ould have ;:di lSt i.e?
Liiv insurgents.
C. Thus, mii :.tar v' oi.