AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B01027R000300170018-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 29, 2007
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: December 12, 1979
• Content Type: MEMO

.Approved For..Release2007/05/2.9 :.CIA?-RDP83B01027R000300170018-1
0
AM
Simle0c 'uu* Staff
:a a 04. MeI
MEMORANDUM FOR: NIO/W
: Director, SWS
25X1
12 December 215X?
SUs Es :: Afghai;i sty=n
1. Our continuing analysis of Soviet activities in Afghanistan and at
military bases in nearby areas of the USSR leads me to believe the
Community should immediately produce a follow-up report to the 14 Septem'.r
Alert Memorandum. We b_iev:_- the paper should convey explicit warning t,-;at
the Soviets appear to be preparing to introduce sizable combat forces in to
Iran and should assess the implications of such a move in the context of
the overall sit
ati
u
on throughout th Middl E
eeast and South Asia.
2. The onl reportin
we ha?
g
~e seen on recent dlt i
eveopmensn Afgha
has been limited to a description of the Soviet forces tIa
gave been moved to Afghanistan in the last w
eL a _____~__
e
ma
b
-
y wr; a
ou- to be mvveo, and a statement that "we do not ?,w
whether this augmentation is intended only to upgrade defenses at Baum
or is indicative of a decision by the Soviets -o increas their .ilitary
commitment in Afghanistan substantially." We corrode that we cannot rule
out the possibility that the re.-lent move is mere?,,-,F for i pr^ ink security
at ' ram. We believe, how er, that the size of the for
tr h is ircrdinatr?,r l Z
=rge fc: ts :;red:--
ar_?`
dl fors .a the . -rear to b: pr ~parinc to move o Af w
dicaz ;at someth?ng more than airfield sc.-
any is in theyo?afing. In-
any event, the totality of events indicative of a major Soviet rsJiitery
move in Afghanistan clearly merits stronger warning than has been given.
The issue, as we see it, is not what has been introduced into Afghanistan,
but what is likely to be in=troduced, probably in the next few days asd why.
The Mili':ary Indic ions
Soviet Corr,:.;-,t Units Atagram
3. In the period from about 3 to 10 December the Soviets mo-:-d what
appears to be two b
t
a
talionsized cobtit
-ma uns to Bagram Air ie t_
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25X1 -
Iff
Actions Possiblu- rcelatel To Prepaef- Lion To Secure A ;ovement Of Soviet
Troops
11. One interpretation of the mo~venw..tit of the units to 8agram in recent
days is that it is meant to insure the -.~4:curity of Soviet fc es while they
are in the vulnerable landing and deba rng phases of their Movement. We
HIP SEEA,.~
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have tenuous eviden that the Soviets ma have take. steps to insure
the security and traffic capacity of other airfields.
.flp` +..
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Genf-al
WhG we are seeing in i;npler:eintatior of plan, deliberate, step-
by-step, for long term goals.
-- Does not bear marks of caution to turn of events, but steps as
part of overall plan to deal with a situation which, without i.4jor
change, could only continue to deteriorate.
Concern For Fraction Of A"gE;?n Army
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