GLOBAL ECONOMIC ESTIMATE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B00140R000100050013-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 21, 2007
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: September 15, 1981
• Content Type: MEMO

n, ? Approved For Release 20 ~?d~_~~~L L:~?i~~-I~I~P83B00140R000100050013-6 '`y) i/~~(IS /f)
TaIE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
National Intelligence Council
1 ~ SEP 1~?31
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROtI~I Henry S. Rowen
Chairman, National Intelligence Council
SUBJECT Global Economic Estimate
1. Conceptualizing and planning an annual global economic
estimate will take a good deal of thought. I have asked Maurice
.Ernst to focus on this subject. In the meantime, however, here
are some preliminary ideas.
Z. A global annual economic estimate should be primarily
concerned with the economic risks, vulnerabilities, and
opportuY;ities facing the US and our allies. In other wordst it ?
should give our leaders a clearer picture of what they should
focus on. In. my view, there is little sense devoting much effor~
to a review of broad economic trends and near term prospects.
These questions are well covered by many official and private
groups, in such publications as the President's Economic
Report. Moreover, I understand that NSC staffers are hoping to
put out a modern version of the old CIEP annual report.
3. Although an annual estimate would have to trace the
likely trends in economic growth, inflation, trade, finance and
commodity markets, its main focus should be on the implications ~~.
of those trends for the US and on the risks that events
triggering substantially different economic results will occur.
Far example, how concerned should we be about large scale oil
supply interruptions and what might be their impact? How
vulnerable is the grain market to major crop failures? j'vfiat are
the risks that debt problems in major LDCs might threaten the
liquidity of international banking? What might the Soviets, the
East Europeans, and the Chinese do .that could impact l`'~'~
substantiall
on the world economies
1
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4. This survey should also include opportunities as well as
problems; for example, resulting from further declines in the
real price of oil or changes in the competitiveness of various
sectors of foreign economies that may create opportunities for US
business.
5. The important risks and opportunities for the next year
or so would be assessed annually. In addition, our estimates
should selectively examine trends which only recently became
visible but which may have important longer term implications for
US or allied interests. These might include changes in
international markets, economic policies, economic institutions,
and technologies. Where appropriate, the impact of some broad
alternative U.S. policies would be considered.
6. The estimate will have to draw on a great many people in
the government and the private sector. Within the Intelligence
Community proper, however, nearly all the work would have to be
done by NFAC and the NIC, there being little capability
elsewhere. I believe it would be useful for Maurice and I to
discuss this matter with you soon after he comes on board.
Henry S. Rowen
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