DR. ATKINSON ASSESSES STRATEGIC BALANCE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP70B00338R000300110046-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 9, 2006
• Sequence Number: 46
• Publication Date: November 14, 1967
• Content Type: OPEN

Approved For Release 2006/01/30 : CIA-RDP70B00338R000300110046-3
November 14, 1967 CONGRESSIQNA,L RECORD -- APPENDIX
legal arm, the merchant is not likely to I ~'
y Dr. Atkinson Asse'sses Strategic Balance For , 1.971 gap t appears that a massive
abuse the rights of the public." megatonnage gawill have developed. U.S.
Beyond the economic and legal opportuni- delivery capability is estimated to range be.-
ties that the OEO has generated, there is a EXTENSION OF REMARKS tween 6,000 megatons and 15,000 megatons,
special opportunity for participation in and OF whereas the estimated high for the Soviet
learning about the democratic process of de- HON. CRAIG HOSMER delivery capability is 50,000 megatons, and
cision-.making' the projection of the established Soviet
Speaking as a loud voice in how the OEO OF CALIFORNIA range-curve Indicates a low figure for the
community service center operates is the IN'TH. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES Soviets of approximately 30,000 megatons. On
target area's Community Action Council. the basis of this projection, the U.S. and
Meeting monthly, as partial fulfillment of Tuesday, November 14, 1967 the U.S.S.R. will have reversed these roles in
the principle of "maximum feasible partici- a 10-year period."
patton" of the poor, they served as the policy Mr- HOSMER. Mr. Speaker, Prof. This study also points out a continuing
advisory group to all OEO programs operating James D. Atkinson of Georgetown Uni- strategic problem for the United States- -the
in that target area. versity is one of the Nation's Interna- high yield of Soviet ICBM's and the resulting
The CAC has a right to review and make tionally recognized experts on nuclear possibility of electromagnetic pulse or other
recommendations to the County Human strategy. In the magazine Ordnance for unexpetced weapons effects that might neu-
Resourcos Commission and delegate agencies November-December 1967, he lucidly and tralizo an entire U.S. ICBM complex however
regarding program goals, progress, impact authoritatively assesses the current and we might harden or shield it.
on the community, program changes, corn- evolving strategic balance between the Allied to this Is the possibility of a complete
munity relations and other appropriate United States and the U.S.S.R. His oval- blackout of communications and the conse-
matters. quent transmission failure of a retaliatory
Meetings are open to the public, and the uation is particularly timely and sig- order by the President, This is so since, as a
CAC elects target area community repro- nificant in the context of continuing result of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, "the
sentatives who are to make up the one-third hearings by the Joint Atomic Commit- United States can only guess at what unique
elected target area representation on dole- tee's Military Applications Subcommit- effects might occur when very high-yield
gate agency boards of directors. tee on the antiballistic missile question, weapons are exploded. But the Soviets know."
Some of the topics discussed at one recent Dr. Atkinson's article foIlaws: Because of these and other serious ques-
meeting of a CAC on the Peninsula were THE STRATEGIC BALANCE: RATTIER THAN SEER tions raised, the study has received wide
the high school tutorial program,. handling MERE NUCLEAR PARITY WITH THE SOVIETS , attention in the American press. The New
of domestic relations cases, policing of teen- THE UNLTED STATES SHOULD USE ITS TECH- York Times, for example, in a front-page
age children at night In target areas, a com- 14OLOGICAL RESOURCES To DEVELOP A VARIETY story on July 12, 1967, stated that "the De.-
munity recreation program, and employ- OF OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE SYSTEMS To fense Department did not directly contradict
Went, LIMIT AN ENEMY'S CAPABILITIES the study's findings, but argues that deliver.-
"Most gratifying aspect of the program," able megatonnage was not an accurate indi-
(Dr. James D. Atkinson) cater of 'true military capability-11' "
says Mrs. McCrary at San Mateo, "is seeing It has been said that U.S. military-tech- The Christian Science Monitor-in an ex..
and helping the young children and the nological progress forces the Soviet Union to .tensive analytical article on July 20, 1967--
teen-agora. They have pure, honest, unbiased
reactions." react to a particular development. But is this, stated that "there is growing concern that
Nancy Thurston, director of the Redwood in fact, correct? Do our strategic patterns the Soviet capability may exceed, now or
aet the pace for Soviet developments; or do soon, that of the United States. Allied with
city program, echoes the enthusiasm of Mrs. the Soviets pursue their own strategic goals that is a concern that the United States is
McCrary qui to Independent of us? 'taking insufficient steps to maintain its
"The most exciting part of the program is It can be argued that in some areas we position."
that the people who benefit from the pro- may be able to influence Soviet policy. We -In an important public address in San.
gram are working In It." of the United States might be able to con-
Secretary
As Mrs. Thurston pointed out, 76 of Defense en September McNamara 18, a7, announced
er cent vines the U.S.S.R. that we can and will main- of DenRobert S. Maanounceof the officer staff are In the needy category tain superiority in the production of long- "a light deployment of U.S. ABM's" against
and a third of the board are potential re- range missiles. the possibility that, in future, the Chinese
olpients under the program. But it is unlikely in the extreme that the Communists "might . miscalculate" and
The whole idea of the centers, of course, Soviets can. be convinced that they are pro- launch a nuclear attack against the United
1s to help the poor help themselves. eluded from achieving scientific and tech- States.
As Rosenthal put it. "Don't look for in- nological breakthroughs in particular areas-- The Secretary of Defense rejected lap
as reentry vehicles or advanced anti- ge-
stant change. Most of the OEO programs are such ballistic missile (ABM) systems-which scale ABM deployment by arguing that this
an investment in human values. Compare might lead to a high level of weaponry and would be directed against the Soviet Union
the cost of the Vietnam War for three weeks. give them superiority over the United States and that the Soviet response would be a
The amount is about the same as the entire step-up in its offensive capabilities which
CEO program, at a given moment in time.
Indeed would "cancel out our defensive advantage."
"Society must be willing to invest more , authoritative Soviet spokesmen and military journals bluntly indicate that Although Mr. McNamara stated that "there
In itself, Otherwise, we have a false econ- the Soviet effort Is directed toward the at- is no point whatever in our responding by
omy tainment of superiority. Thus Communist of going to a massive ABM deployment to pro-
The CEIO hopes to go further In revltaliz- the Armed Forces (No. 3, 1966) has stated tect our population, when such a system
log and rebuilding the target areas, and at that "winning and maintaining technical Would be ineffective against a sophisticated
the same time to discover more about the superiority over any probable enemy while Soviet offense," the Joint Chiefs of Staff-
causes of poverty. there is still peace is today of decisive im- as Well as a number of informed Senators
Members, the centers themselves are portance." and Congressmen on the Senate and House
hardly operating at a luxury level. In fact, Especially under the impact of long lead Armed Services Committees-believe that a
George Riley, acting director of the County times, the essence of strategy today is not ? large-scale missile defense is a requirement
Human Resources commission, feels that so much the new; it 1s, rather, the 5 years in view of the rising Soviet military-techno-
they have scarcely enough to provide ode- from now--and the 10 years from now. logical threat.
quate service in the target area, It is important, of course, whether or not Furthermore, it Is by no means clear that
"Too often," he said, "we have to make a we now have over-all strategic superiority the Soviet economy Is capable of reacting
choice of who or what not to include in a over the Soviet Union. But it is even more fully to a large-scale U.S. deployment of ABM
program." important to understand the trends in the systems; for example, one which would in-
The centers are financed 90 It aompotition, for upon elude both land-based and sea-based missile-
per cent these depends our future security, defense systems.
through federal CEO funds; the rest is pro- The July 1067 study of a special subcom-? The evidence of more than two decades
vided by local agencies or individual spon- mittee of the National Strategy committee'
sops, following the Second World War suggests
of the American Security Council,' "The that it has been the stabilizing factor of U.S.
The annual budget for the San Mateo Changing Strategic Military Balance: U.S.A. military-technological superiority which has
center, Riley said, is $40,000; Redwood City, vs. U.S.S.R.," gives a blunt warning with rof- prevented a general nuclear war. Today, pri-
$42,000; and East Palo Alto, $52,000. The erence to trends in the power equilibrium. madly under the Impact of the Soviet mill-
new Daly City center has a $17,000 budget, The study states tary-technological thrust-but to some ex.
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A 5580 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - APPENDIX November 14, 1967
tent from Chinese Communist efforts-that
stability appears to be threatened.
If, for example, the Soviet strategists can
achieve, or believe they have a very high per-
centage of achieving, an area-kill factor of
incoming missiles (so that there is no prob-
lem of discrimination with reference to
decoys and live warheads), they may at some
point in time be tempted to launch a surprise
nuclear strike upon the United States.
The deployment of a large-scale American
ABM system or systems is one answer to the
stabilization of power in the world. But it
is not an end in itself.
If the military-technological revolution of
our times teaches us anything, it is that
there are no permanent plateaus in mili-
tary technology. Instead there is constant
change and rapid development.
To avoid a nuclear war and to safeguard
the national security, therefore, we need to
move forward with a mixture of both defen-
sive and offensive weapon systems and to
consider, for example, new types of air and
sea-based strike systems made feasible by
technological advances. The variety of our
possible choices of action adds immeasurably
to an enemy's planning problems if he at-
tempts to prepare responses to a broad spec-
trum of capabilities.
A mixture of options-not reliance on one
or two-compounds the'task of the enemy
and makes deterrence meaningful to him.
There are many uncertainties and unknown
factors in working out the problems of of-
fense and defense alike, since the acid test
is-and only is-actual war.
Those things-such as too great reliance
on fixed missile systems-which simplify the
problem-also reduce the uncertainties and
unknown factors posed to the opponent. Sim-
plification of our options may, in fact, tempt
the enemy to consider a surprise attack.
Most of all; however, a "mix"' of options
is significant in the load factor which it
places on a potential enemy's military struc-
ture. The Soviet Union is faced with a num-
ber of constraints. If we make the Soviet
leaders consider a new option, it tends to
limit their capabilities-as well as blunting
their desires-for playing the game of
strategic blackmail in world politics.
Your Congressman: Bill Scott Reports
EXTENSION OF REMARKS
OF
HON. WILLIAM LLOYD SCOTT
OF VIRGINIA
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Tuesday, November 14, 1967
Mr. SCOTT. Mr. Speaker, under leave
to extend my remarks in the REcoRD, I in-
clude the following newsletter for No-
vember 1967:
YOUR CONGRESSMAN: BILL SCOTT REPORTS,
NOVEMBER 1967
DISTRICT VISITS
It is difficult to determine when Congress
will adjourn although I had hoped it would
be by the middle of this month and had
made tentative plans for visits in each
County in the District. Those plans have
been revised to include Friday and Saturday
visits this month and all of the first two
weeks in December. Hopefully we will ad-
journ by the end of the month. The full
schedule follows:
November 17, Fredericksburg.
November 18, Hanover.
November 24, King William, King and
Queen.
November 25, Lancaster. helping people to help themselves. We all
December 1, Spotsylvania. must be seeking ways in which we can be
the deserving poor.
l t
f
o
u
December 2, Caroline, truly help
December 4, Loudoun. No NEWSLETTER IN DECEMBER
December 5, Fauquier.
December 6, Prince William.
December 7, Louisa.
December 8, Goochland.
December 9, Charles City and New Kent.
December 11, Northumberland.
December 13, Richmond and Essex.
December 14, Westmoreland and King
George.
If you have any suggestions for me or if I
can be of service to you, please contact me
during these visits. The Fredericksburg visit
will be in my District office at the Post Office,
and the other locations will be announced
through the news media. There will be no
visit to Fairfax County because I have lived
there for more than 20 years and see these
folks daily.
ACADEMY APPOINTMENTS
Twenty boys took the Civil Service Desig-
nation Examination November 4th, and 25
took the test in July. When the November
4th list of grades is received from Civil Serv- making selections after the second test has
ice, we will merge it with the July list and been processed, so the Commission urges
use this as a basis for the nominations which interested persons to apply early. Complete
will be made after the first of the year. There information about the summer job program
are a few boys who have not sent me. three and complete application procedures may be
letters of , transc p recommendation high school a records. picture, and a found in the Civil Service Commission's An-
like t riht e f high school raspo I would nouncement No. 414, "Summer Jobs in Fed-
Coast to have case as soon not n- eral Agencies." The announcement is avail-
Coast Guard Academy does not require Con- able at high school counseling offices, col-
Entrance appointment, but uses the College e loge placement offices, the Civil Service Com-
Entrance Examination as the basis for selec- mission and many Post Offices.
tion. Further information on entrance re re- AGRICULTURE PUBLICATIONS
quirements may be obtained from my office.
POVERTY BILL A limited supply of the 1967 Agriculture
The House of Representatives is spending Yearbook, "Outdoors: USA" Is still available
a considerable period of time considering the through my office. Also available are the
Economic Opportunity Amendments of 1967. bulletins "Your Child from 1 to 6" and "In-
The bill, commonly known as the "poverty fant Care" which may be ordered by title.
program," is one of the most controveysial to A RECENT BILL
reach the floor of the House. I have introduced a bill limiting to 10 the
All of the members appear to want to alle- number of questions to be asked by the
viate poverty, deplore substandard living con- Bureau of the Census in 1970, with authority
ditions and lack of opportunity of many citi- to ask additional questions only if they are
zens in our affluent society, but many feel specifically approved by the appropriate
that the Office of Economic Opportunity is Committees of each House of the Congress.
poorly administered and that what the Presi- A census has been taken since time in-
dent refers to as the "War on Poverty" Is not memorial, but the first American census was
being won. In fact, statistics show that there taken in 1790 and contained only five ques-
are over a million more people receiving wel- bons. This number has grown to 165 in 1960
fare payments now than a year ago. and additional questions are proposed for
er-
f
a p
Among the programs included in the bill 1970. Many of the questions are o
are the Job Corps, Community Action and sonal nature, and it does not appear essential
VISTA programs. The goals of these organi- for the government to have the answers to
zations are all worthwhile. However, it does all of them, but rather it seems an invasion
cause you to wonder when you see an amend- of the privacy of our citizens. In a column
ment in the bill to require that the operating published in most of our weekly papers last
cost for each Job Corps enrollee be reduced month, this proposal was mentioned and
from $7500 to $6500. constituents have been unanimously in
The committee report indicates that pov- favor of the bill in their responses. Certainly
erty workers have spent portions of their time if anyone is going to keep the government
reviewing county records to determine who from continuing to invade the private lives
is and who is not registered to vote and of individuals, it should be their elected rep-
then going in government vehicles to take resentatives. Not only will this bill, if
people to places of registration so that they enacted, prevent intrusion by the govern-
will be qualified to vote. Poverty workers ment, but it will also cost considerably less
have been accused of particpating in riots than the anticipated questionnaire.
and violence in our cities and their officials WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA TRANSIT
accused of lobbying to obtain favorable ac- AUTHORITY
tion by Congress in violation of a Federal On Monday the staff of the MATA briefed
Criminal
last Statute. few weeks have received a me on the proposed rapid transit system. I
In the am not entirely satisfied with the proposals
considerable number of personal visits, tole- for Northern Virginia, and hope, therefore,
phone calls, telegrams and letters urging that
I support the bill without any Amendments. that people in Fairfax and the surrounding
These contacts would ordinarily be persua- counties who can, will attend public hear-
sive. However, as you know, we had a ques- ings and make their views known to their
tionnaire early in the Spring in which 93% rapid transit representatives. Transportation
of you said to cut government spending, and in and out of Washington is a vital problem,
80% said to cut the Poverty Program. There and an informed citizenry can assist in pro-
are few more unpopular programs and I'll viding a better system.
vote to restrict it. Of course I'll try to pick SOMETHING TO PONDER
and choose as various amendments are of- Communications is the beginning of
feied, and will vote in favor of the Headstart
Program and others which seem beneficial in understanding.
throughout the District, there will be no
December newsletter. However, in January I
want to seek your views on next year's legis
lative program and so I will send the news-
letter and a questionnaire to all homes in
the District.
SUMMER JOBS
The Civil Service Commission has an-
nounced an examination for Summer Jobs
in Federal Agencies for students next year.
The examination will be for GS-1 through
GS-4 typists, stenographers, clerks and
engineering and science aides, and for sea-
sonal assistant jobs in the postal service.
Candidates who achieved eligibility for sum-
mer jobs this past summer must compete
again if they wish to be considered for sum-
mer work in 1968.
The exam will be given throughout the
nation on December 9, January 13, February
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