THE SITUATION IN INDOCHINA (AS OF 1600 EST) NO. 3

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00865A002500280001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 17, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 5, 1975
• Content Type: IM

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INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
5 April 1975
The Situation in Indochina
(As of 1600 EST)
No. 3
SOUTH VIETNAM
Military-Action in Delta .
1. There were no rnajbr attacks against cities
in the. delta, but the level,*of Communist and govern-
ment initiatives in the countryside continues to
increase: Regional Force units successfully de-
fended a district town in Vinh Long Province, scat-
tering the attackers in disarray and pursuing them
until dark. Government territorials also reopened
the road northeast of the Kien Giang Province capital
of Rach Gia, which had been cut yesterday.
2. The regional staff members seem convinced
that the. North Vietnamese 4th Division, which has
concentrated its regiments -near Can Tho City, must
soon make its move or risk losing its combat effec-
tiveness. Some officials feel that if the 4th-
Divi-sion has not made a succes'gful bid against the Can
Tho defenses by April 8, it will have to fall back.
Although the South Vietnamese 21st Division has not-
been aggressive in breaking up the Communist threat,
there has been constant contact, and air and artil-
.lery strikes have been conducted daily. Delta
officials believe that these strikes take a consid-
erable toll in men and supplies and this pressure
will force the Communists either to attack soon or
to disengage.
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Regional Commanders indisposed
o Quang Troung is in the hos ital
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q;,;rrnn recovering from a minor operation.
4. General. Pharr Van Phu,the former commander
of MR-2, is also in a Saigon hospital, reportedly
suffering from nervous tension. Following a speech
by President Thieu yesterday, associates of Phu
expressed concern that the general'may be punished.
Thieu said that some military commanders were partly
to blame for the.debacle'af recent weeks. He is
upset with, what he considers premature decisions by
both Truohg and Phu to abandon their regions.
Initial Reactions tb New Cabinet Formation
5. In a limited sampling of Vietnamese reac
tion to the formation of a new cabinet, the US em-
bassy reports that most of those interviewed are
taking.a wait and see attitude.. They welcomed the
departure of Prime,Minister Khiem but questioned
Whether Speaker Can is capable of the difficult task
Thieu has assigned him.. Although Can is a respected
and intelligent politician, he is a close associate
of Thieu and has few contact.among the military. As
a national leader, most regard him as a lightweight
and 'they question whether he.can persuade an impres-
sive group to join the government. ?.
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CAMBODIA
The Tactical Situation
1. Fighting has increased on the Route 5 front
some six miles north of Phnom Penh.' US defense at-
taches who visited the area reported that the situ-
ation is under control-for the moment but. that
government defenses along the highway and on the
peninsula just across the Tonle Sap River are very
porous. Just to the west, government units that had
earlier evacuated an isolated headquarters well re-
moved from the main battlefields have moved into
blocking positions along the dike five miles from
Pochentong Airport. Government commanders are pull-
ing units in from enclaves in the countryside and
by next week may have several thousand additional
troops to reinforce the capital's northwestern de--
fenses.
2. Southwest of Phnom Penh, the threat of a
major push against the capital is growing daily.
Yesterday, however, the:IZhmer air force
detroyed a large number of sampans on the lower
Mekong River which were presumably being used to
ferry the division across the river. This may Be-
lay the
division's attack plans.
3. Communist gunners today fired about 50
rockets and howitzer rounds into Pochentong Airport.
Four f(hmer air force pilots were wounded and three
air force transports were damaged. Only four T-28S
were available for combat support today and the air
force may soon be limited to a'transport role. is
US airlift continued without interruption today-
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Evacuation Status
4. By nightfall on Sunday (Phnom Penh time),
Ambassador Dean plans to have reduced the US Mission
staff to 61 arsons of less.
5. Ambassador Dean has reported that in addi-
tion to the official members of the US Mission,
there were another 135 US citizens'in Phnom Penh as
of this morning. .These include some 50 "transients,"
49 Americans who are teachers, missionaries, or em-
ployees of airlines and relief organizations; and 36
members of the press corps'. Many of these have ap-
parently been.reluctant to'leave.
6. Only two foreign diplomats remain on the
evacuation list as of today but there are 30 non-
off icial third country nationals. The ambassador
is deeply concerned over the more than 800 Cambodians
included in the evacuation plan. He believes that
the departure of large numbers of government offi-
cials and Cambodian employees of the US Mission--
along with their dependents--will be read as a sign
of defeat in Phnom Penh. As a, result an unpredic-
table and uncontrollable.-situation might develop
which could make it difficult or impossible to carry
the evacuation%plans throu4h to completion.
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Political Developments
7. The Thai government is apparently making
an eleventh hour effort to spark a dialogue between
the two Cambodian belligerents. Thai Foreign Min-
ister Chatchai told US Charge Plasters in Bangkok
yesterday that he had invited Sihanouk's son, Prince
Yuvaneath, to visit the Thai capital over the week-
end. Cambodian Prime Minister Long Boret is
scheduled to pass through Bangkok on Sunday and
Chatchai apparently hopes to arrange a meeting be-
tween the two.
8. Even if the Thais succeed in bringing the
two Cambodians together, there.is very little hope
that such a meeting would result in'any significant
movement toward a peaceful settlement. Prince
Yuvaneath--who has a reputation as a playboy and
who has been staying in Macao--is clearly not au-
thorized to speak for his father, l'et alone the
Khmer Communists. Recent statements from both
Sihanouk and the Communists have made it. clear that
they sense victory and are even more firmly opposed
than in the past to "negotiations or compromise.."
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