EUROPEAN BRIEF 163-75.4

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010065-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 15, 2005
• Sequence Number: 65
• Publication Date: October 21, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

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USSR: THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE ~7~ 30 SEPTEMBER 1965
CPSU PLENUM ON KOSYGIN'S ECONOMIC REFORM HAS PASSEr
WITHOUT NOTICE IN THE SOVIET PRESS--A, SILENCE IN~
STRIKIvG CONTRAST TO THE FANFARE EARLIER THIS YEAR
ON THE 10TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE ~~ARCH 195 PLENUM
WHICH LAUNCHED BREZHNEV'S NEW AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM.
THIS BLACKOUT PROBABLY REFLECTS NOT ONLY THE COOLING
OF' OFFICIAL iiTTITUDES TOWARD THE 1965 ECONOMIC RE-
FORM, 8UT ALSO aREZHNEI~'S INCREASING ATTEMPTS TO
REDUCE KOSYGIN'S ROLE AS THE CHIEF ADMINISTRATOR OF
ECONOMIC POLICY. THECE EFFORTS, EVIDENT SINCE 1974,
ARE ALSO :REFLECTED IN A SERIES OF NEW CENTRAL COM-
MITTEE DECREES WHICH SUGGEST THAY PARTY OFFICIALS
:,ARE DIRECTLY EXERCISING FUNCTIONS NORMALLY HANDLED
_BY THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS.M
THE, IGNORING OF THE?LOrH ANNIVERSARY GF THE
:.SEPTEMBER 1965 PLENUM IS THE MORE STRIKING SINCE
DATE :. ?
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SOVIET CALENDARS PREPARED EARLIER HAD NOTED THE DATE.
THE BLACKOUT EVEN INCLUDED SPECIAL'lZED ECONOMIC PAPERS
SUCH AS ECONOMIC GAZETTE AND SOCIALIST INDUSTRY AND
ECONOMIC JOURNALS SUCH AS PLANNED ECONOMY AND QUES-
TIONS.OF ECONOMICS, AS WELL Aa ALL REPUBLIC PAPERS,
INCLUDING AREAS LIKE BELORUSSIA, WHICH IN THE PAST ."
HAD DISPLAYED NOTABLE ENTHUSIASM FOR THE REFORM.
KOriMUNiST, INSTEAD OF THE EXPEr.TED ANNIVERSARY AR-
TICLE, CARRIED AN EDITORIAL ON BREZHNEV'S NEWLY
PUBLISHED COLLECTION O'F' SPEECHES ON THE ECONOMY?4
BY CONTRAST, THE MARCH b965 AGRICULTURAL PLENUM
ANNIVERSARY WAS MARKED WITH NUMEROUS EDITORIALS AND
ARTICLES, THE PUBLICATION OF A SPECIAL BOOK AND THE
HOLDING OF A WELL-PUBLICIZED CEREMONY ATTENDED 8Y
:SEVERAL POLITBURO MEMBERS ? MOREOVER, fiEGIME FIGJRES
~~INCLUDING BREZHNEV} HAVE PARTICIPATED IN EXTENSIVE
,'.CELEBRATIONS OVER THE PAST MONTH MARKING THE 40 TN
.ANNIVERSARY OF THE STAKHANOVITE MOVEMENT--AN ECONOMIC
DATE:
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APPROACH FUNDAMENTALLY AT ODDS WITH THAT OF THE ECO-
NOMIC REFORM .M
SOME FORESHADOWING OF THIS IMBALANCE IN TREAT-
MEN'f OF THE 'TWO 1965 PLENUMS WAS PROV~DE?- BY 'fHE
OCTOBER 194 CELEBRATION OF THE 1QTH ANNIVERSARY 01'
THE~OCTOBER 1964 PLENUM WHICH REMOVED KHRUSHCHEV AND'
PLACED BREZHNEV A~lD KOSYr;IN IN POWER. IN ALMOST ALL
ARTICLES PUBLISHED TO OBSERyE THAT OCCASION, THE ECO-
NOMIC REFORM AND KOSYGIN WERE IGNORED, WHILE BREZHNEV
AND HIS ECONOMIC PROGR~4MS WERE EULOGIZED AT LENGTH .Y
BREZHNEV HAS BEEN INCREASINGLY ASSERTING HIS
ROLE IN ECONOMIC POLICY OVER THE PAST YEAR. IN OC-
TOBER 14'74 HE CLEARLY INFRINGED ON KOSYGIN'S WELL-
ESTABLISHED PREROGA1IVES 8Y ADDRESSING THE COUNCIL
'~OF MINISTERS ON ECONOMIC POLICY. IN MID-1975 HE BE-
:'CAME AN ECONOMIC AUTHORITY IN HIS OWN RIGHT WrTH THE
PUBLICATION OF A COLLECTION OF HIS SFEECHES ON THE
=ECONOMY, MATCHING KOSYGIN'S PUBLISHED COLLECTION OF
DATE
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SPEECHES~~, MOST OF WHICH CONCENTRATE ON ECONOMIC MAT-
TERS~ `$-4E MOST RECENT INDICATIONS OF THIS TREND
HAVE BF:'E,N SEVERAL CENTRAL COMMITTEE DECREES SEEMINGLY
REFLEC"~?".'NG THE ASSUMF~TION BY THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE
OF A i~:OLE NORMALLY EaERCISED BY THE COUNCIL OF MIN-
ISTERS.
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1? LEBANON: SCATTERED INCIDENTS OCCURRED MONDAY NIGHT IN
BEIRUT, BUT THERE WAS NO RESUMPTION OF THE HEAV?r FIGHTING THAT
HAD ERUPTED SUNDAY NIGHT? COMMERCIAL kCTIVITY IN BEIRUT WAS AGAIN
AT A STANDSTILL ON MONDAY AS BARRICADES WENT BACK UP IN MANY AREAS
OF THE CITY?M -
.THE FIGHTING SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH FOR THE FIRST TIME SF~READ
TO THE RAS BEIRUT AREA--WHERE MANY AMERICAN RESIDENTS LIVE--
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APPARENTLY INVOLVED~SUNNI MUSLIM RESIDENTS OP THE RAS AN-NABEH
REGION AND CHRISTIANS 0'~ ASHR~AFIYAH
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ON .THE POLITICAL FRONT, NO PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE TOWARD AN
? AGREEMENT THAT. MIGHT Cv~11CEIVABLY PUT AN END TO THE FIGHTING ? MONDAY.' S
:;SCHEDULED MEETING OF THE POLITICAL REFORM SUBCOMMITTEE OF THE
"r'NATIONAL DIALOGUE COMMITTEE WAS POSTPONED UNTIL TUESDAY?M
c
THE LEBANESE PARLIAMENT IS TO MEET ON TUESDAY, AND KAMAL
`'.AL-ASAD, A SHIA MUSLIM, IS EXPECTED TO BE RE-ELECTED SPEAKER WITHOUT
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? S ARE SPREADING, HOWEVER, THAT LEFTIST LEADER
KAMAL JUMBLATT AND HIS SUPPORTERS IN PARLIAMENT WILL BOYCOTT THE
SESSION, POSSIBLY INDICATING A DEVELOPING SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHIA
~,,~ MUSLIMS AND THE LEFTISTS. IN ANY EVENT, THE POLTiICALLY IMPOTENT
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PARLIAMENT IS LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IiJFLUENCE ON THE CONFLICT.
SYRIA:.
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THE GOLAN HEIGHTS
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SYRIA IS EVACUA`,~ING CIVILIANS FROM
(SYRIA INTENDS TO OCCUPY
A PIECE OF ISRAELI-CONTROLLED Tt?RFII'fORI~ SO .THAT SECRETARY KISSINGER
WILL HAVE TO RETURN TO .SYRIA AND NEGOTIATE A COMPREHENSIVE
SETTLEMENT.
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MEANWH7CLE, ASAD CONTINUED HIS VERBAL ASSAULT ON Th'E SECOND
SINAI .DISENGAGEMENT AGREEMENT IN A LENGTHY INTERVIEW PUEtLISHED ON
SATURDAY IN A KUWAITI NEIdSPAPER ? REITERATING HIS OPPOSIT~tON TO
FURTHER PEACE NEGOTIATIONS CONCERNING THE GOLAN HEIGHTS U'~1LESS
THE PASLESTINE LIBERATION ORGANIZATION TAKES PART, THE SYRIAN
LEADER SAID HE HAD BEEN OFFERED AN OPPORTUNITY TO ENGAGE IN TALKS
SIMILAR '~'0 THOSE IN WHICH EGYPTIAN PRESIDENT SADAT HAD PARTICIPATED.
r
ASAD SAID HE HAD REFUSED BECAUSE THE TALKS WERE AIMED AT ISOLATING
THE PALESTINIAN PROBLEM?4' '
ASAD CRITICIZED EGYPT'S ANTI-SOVIET STANCE AS AN ATTEMPT TO
OBSCURE THE PALESTINIAN. ISSUE BY OFFERINt; SAUDI ARABIA AND THE
PERSIAN GULF STATES THE CHOICE BETWEEN EGYPT AND COMMUNISM. HE.
'-DENIED THAT SYRIA AND THE PALESTINIANS WERE "CHESSMEN IN THE HAND
,OF THE SOVIETS,^ AND SAID SYRIA HAD REJECTED MOSCOW'S OFFER OF A
~TREATY'OF PEACE AND FRIENDSHIP.M
:. THE SYRIAN PRESIDENT SAID THAT DURING HIS RECENT TRIP TO THE
~o~TE y
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USSR, THE SOVIETS HAD SHOWN A READINESS TO BACK SYRIA'S STRUGGLE
'i0 KECOVER THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES. HE SAID HE WAS ^CONFIDENT
TH~,T WE WILL. BE PROVIDED WITH ARMS.^M
ASAD DID NOT REVEAL SYRIAN INTE~JTIONS REGARDING T!iE hZEME-JAL
OF THE MANDATE OF THE UN FORCE ON THE GOLAN HE..T.GHTS, WHICW EXPIRES
ON NOVEMBER 30? HE NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE EitISTENCE OF THE
OBSERVER FORCE WAS NO BARRIER TO SYRIAN MILITARY ACTION. RECALLING
THAT SYRIA HAD INSISTED THAT THE FORCE BE CALLED AN OBSERVER
RATHER THAN AN EMERGENCY FORCE 'BIKE THE ONE IN THE SINAI, ASAD
DECLARED, ^WHEN WE DECYDE TO.I~IAGE A WAR, THESE OBSERVERS WILL NOT
BE AN OBSTACLE.^M
A SYRIAN MILITARY SPOKESMAN ANNOUNCED ON MONDAY THAT SOME
SYRIANS HAD CLASHED WITH AN ISR~cLI PATROL ON THE GOLAN HEIGHTS.
TF!E INCIDENT REPORTEDLY TOOK PLACE SEVEN MILES NORTHEAST OF AL
~QUNAYTIRAH, THE SAME ARCA WHERE TWO SYRIAN SHEPHERDS WERE KILLED BY
=THE ISR4ELIS LAST WEEK?4
_ TEL AVIV HAS PLAYED DOWN THEINCIDENT. ISPAELI MILITARY SOURCES
:ACKNOWLEDGE THAT SHOTS WERE FIRED ACROSS THE UN BUFFER LINE BUT SAID '
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THE FIRE HAD NOT BEEN RETURNED. THE ISRAELIS SAID 'T'HEY WERE NOT
EVEN CERTAIN WHO HAD FIRED THE SHOTS, AND THEY REPORTED NO
CASUALTIES.
3?. SPANISH SAHARA: THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL MET ON MONDAY, A T
SPAIN'S BEHEST, TO DISCUSS KING HASSAN'S PLAN TO HAVE 350,OO~J
UNARMED MOROCCAN CITIZENS MARCH INTO SPANISH SAHARA.~THE SECURITY
COUNCIL PRESIDENT SAID THE MEF~BERS WOULD CONSULT PRIVATELY BEFORE
MEETING AGAIN?M
SPANISH PRIME MINISTER ARIAS CHAIRED A LONG CABINET MEETI~~G
IN MADRID TO DISCUSS HbW TO REACT TO THE MOROCCAN MARCH. ARIP,S
2
ALSO MET WITH T>?E NATIONAL DEFENSE COUNCIL, TFJE MILITARY POLICY
BODY. NO nECISIONS WERE ANNOUNCED-
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L? JAPAN: AN AMBIGUOUS STATEMENT BY JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER
MIKI LAST WEEK HAS AGAIN TOUCHED OFF SPECULATION IN TOKYO THAT A
GENERAL ELECTION WILL BE HELD SOON, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS DECEMBER.
MIKI SUBSEQUENTLY ISSUED AN EQUIVOCAL DENIAL, SAYING HE HAD N0
INTENTION OF CALLING AN ELECTION "AT THIS TIME."M
RUMORS ABOUT AN ELECTION HAVE BEEN SIMMERING SINCE LAST
SUMMER. THE OPPOSITION PARTY HAS CALLED FOR ONE, YOUNGER DIET
MEMBERS AND WOULD~BE CANDIDATES ARE ALREADY CAMPAIGNING, AND MOST
POLITICIANS BELIEVE MI~GI WANT$ AN ELECTION SOONER RATHER THAN
LATER?M
MIKI ASSUMED POWER AS A COMPROMISE CHOICE WITHIN THE RULING
LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY LAST DECEMBER. HE NEEDS AN ELECTION?~
EVEN 4NE IN WHICH HIS PARTY IS ONLY MODERATELY SUCCESSFUL, TO
yGIVE HIM A CLAIM TO A POPULAR MANDATE?M
?'; STILL, THE PRIME .MINISTER AND MOST CONSERVATIVE LEADERS
ti
,RECOGNIZE '('HAT WITHOUT AN UPSWING IN JAPAN'S E:ONOMY, VOTER
',DISCONTENT COULD WELL DAMAGE THE PARTY'S FORTUNES.
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2?//KOREA: THE KOREAN QUESTION WILL BE ONE OF THE MOST
STRONGLY CONTESTED-ISSUES TO COME BEFORE THE UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY
THIS YEAR.//M ~'
.~
//THE DEBATE BEGINS IN 'i'HE POLITICAL COMMITTEE ON TUESDAY,
AND THE MAIN TOPICS ARE THE STATUS OF US FORCES IN KOREA, HOW TO
TERMINATE THE UN COMMAND--ESTABLISHED OVER 25 YEARS AGO--AND HOW
TO ARRANGE A MECHANISM FOR PRESERVING THE ARMISTICE.//M
//THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY CANNOT TAKE DECISIVE ACTION TO RESOLVE
.THESE~ISSUES? US FORCES ARE IN KOREA UNDER A BILATEKAL AGREE-
MENT, AND ONLY THE SECURITY COUNCIL CAN END THE UN COMMAND.
THE ASSEMBLY DEBATE COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON STABILITY IN THE
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KOREAN PENINSULA//M
//NORTH KOREA AND ITS SUPPORTERS INSIST THAT WHEN THE COMMAN D
IS TERMINATED, US FORCES MUST WITHDRAW AND NORTH KOREA AND THE l~S
SHOULD, NEGOTIATE A BILATERAL PEACE TREATY TO REPLACE THE ARMISTICE.//M
//SOUTH KOREA AND ITS SUPPORTERS OPPOSE WII~IDRAWAL OF US
TROOPS AND PROPOSE THAT ALL PARTIES CONCERNED--INCLU$ING SEOUL--
AGREE ON MEAS-IRES TO MAINTAIN THE ARMISTICE MACHINERY AFTER
THE UN COMMAND ENDS.//M
1/ADOPTION OF THE PRO-NORTH KOREAN RESOLUTIONS WOULD
8E USED BY PYONGYANG TS CHALLENGE THE LEGITIMACY OF THE US
PRESENCE IN KOREA, OF THE UN COMMAND AND, BY EXTENSION, OF THE
ARMISTICE AGREEMENT, SINCE THE UN COMMAND WAS THE ONLY ALLIED
SIGNATORY. IT MIGHT ENCOURAGE PYONGYANG TO ASSERT A CLAIM
TO THE ISLANDS OFF THE WEST COAST OF KOREA, WHICH THE
ARMISTICE AGREEMENT PLACED UNDER UN CONTROL.//4
//PASSAGE OF THE PRO-SEOUL RESOLUTION hIOULD PUT THE GCNERAL
"^AS~:EMBLY ON RECORD, IN FAVOR OF CONTINUING THE ARMISTICE AGREE-
~:.M~NT? .THIS WOULD OFFSET PYONGYANG'S RECENT DIPLOMATIC
(1ATE
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SUCCESSES AND REINFORCE INTER~yATIONAL SUPPORT FOR EXISTI~JG
SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS tN KOREA. STILL, THE BASIC PROBLEM
WOULD NOT BE SOLVED, FOR THE NORTH KOREANS COULD TRY
.AGAIN .NEXT YEpR TO PUSH THEIR RESOLUTION THROUGH.//M
? //.THE POLITICAL COMMITTEE'S VOTE ON THE TWO DRAFT
RESOLUTIONS WILL Pfi~opBLY COME NEXT 4;EEKAND WILL BE CLOSE.
;THE PRO-SEOUL DRAFT HAS A BETTER-THAN-EVEN CHANCE, ESPECIALLY
IF, AS ANTICIPA'y'ED, IT GETS VO.ED ON FIRST. JAPAN, T~lE UK,
CANADA, AND FRANCE---IN ADDITION TO THE US--HAVE ACTIVELY
L088IED FOR THE SOUTH~ICOREANS?//Y
//SEOUL WILL 08"i'AIN SIZABLE BLOCS OF VOTES FROM WESTERN
EUROPE AND LATIN AMERICA, AND IT HAS WORKED DILIGENTLY
TO RETAIN THE SUPPORT OF ITS FRIENDS IN ASIA, AFRICA, ,AND
THE MIDDLE EAST.//M
4 //THE PRO-RYON6YANG.RESOLUTICN WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY
:ALSO COME UP FOR A VOTE AND ZT T00 MAY PASS, ALSO BY A
NARROW ~?iARGIh? NORTH KOREA'I _"'?ROVED PROSPECTS RESULT
~?IN LARGE-PART FROM iTS SUCCESS IN ADDiKG NON-ALIGNED COUNTRIEc
oi-~:
r RE~RODUCTKION SY GiTHtR~HAb~ 7N!' ~~~~~'~~~~~~~~?~~uuu' uu a-ts
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'~.TO ITS SUPPORTEP,S AMONG THE COMMUNIST STATES.//V
//OF 48 COUNTRIES THAT VOTED WITH PYONGYANG LAST YEAR,
2L WERE FROM AFRICA AND 'i~fE MIDrLE EAST. NORTH KOREA'S POSI-
TION H.AS BEEN STRENGTHENED AS NEW COMMUNIST REGIMES HAVE
COME TO POWER IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND OTHER ASIAN GOVERNMENTS
HAVE MOVED TOWARD ACCOMMODATION WITH THE COMMUNISTS ?^ PEKING
CONTINUES TO HELP WITH STRONG RHETORIC IN NEW YORK AND
WITH LOBBYING IN SELcCTED CAPITALS. MOSCOW'S SUPPORT IS
NOW LARGELY PRO-FORMA.//M
//IF, AS IS POSSYBLE, THE POLITICAL COMMITTEE PASSES
BOTH DRAFTS, PRESSURE ALMOST CERTAINLY WOULD DEVELOP FOR
SOME KIND OF COMPROMISE IN THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY.//M
//A GROUP OF ASIAN COUNTRIES--MALAYSIA, INDONESIA,
IS (~ uS iD Fi?R i~l G
SINGAPORE, THAILAND, ~4ND THE PHILIPPINES-~A FORMULA THAT .
~INCLUD~S PROVISIONS FROM BOTH DRAFT RESOLUTIONS. LIKE THE
r PRt~-SEOUL DRAFT, IT EMPHASIZE:' THE NEED TO MAINTAIN THE
~:ARMISTIC AGREEME"i't AND IT CLEARLY IMPLIES THAT SEOUL SHOULD
~':.BE INCLUDED IDS ,ECURITY NEGOTIATIONS. THE PROPOSAL
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EMBODIES PYONGYANG'S LANGUAGE CALLING FOR THE DISOLUTION OF THE
UN COMMAND AND THE WIT4DRAWAL OF ^FOREIGN" TROOPS.//M
//THE .4SIAN STATES ARk HOLDING THEIR DRAFT IN ABEYANCE,
BUT IF THE COMPETING RESOLUTIONS BOT!{ PASS, SOME VARIATION
OF IT--PERHAPS ONE THAT AVOIDS AN EXPLICIT CALL FOR US
TROOP WITHDRAWALS--MIGHT GATHER MOMENTUM.//M
//STILL, GIVEN THE Si;ARP DIFFERENCES THAT EXIST BETWEEN
THE TWO SIDES, THE ASSEP~BLY SESSION MAY END WITH CONFLICTING
RESOLUTIONS AND WITHOUT CLEAR-CUT RECOMMENDATIONS ON
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LATIN AMERICAN LA?OR LEADERS FAILED TO PRODUCE A PLAN FOR
REVITALIZING THE INTER-AMERICAN LA80R SYSTEM, GRIT, IN TIME FOR
THE WORLD CCN~RESS OF THE INTERNATIONAL COP~FEDERATION OF FREE
TRADE UNIONS ~+(ICFTU} NOW BEING HELD IN MEkICO? STILL, THEY ARE
ANGRILY RES'tST,LNG ATTEMPTS BY OTHER ICFTU AFFILIATES TO IMPOSE
REMEDIES ON THE AILING GRIT ~;ND .HAVE ~W01" APPROVAL T!1 CONTINUE
.THEIR .OWN .EFFORTS. TO REORGANI7.E? THE SUBJEC'T' WILL BE ADDRESSED
ttLtAtIN6 OAICtN ~ ~ COOIIOINATINO Of/ICQf AUTMCNTICAt1Y0 OMICQ
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.?. s...
AT AN EXTRAORDINARY CONGRESS NEXT MAY, PROBABLY IN CARACAS.
EUROPEAN LA80R OFFICIALS HAVE A`; TACKED GRIT FOR ITS TIES
TO THE .AFL-CIO,. ACCUSING .THE LATIN TRADE UNIONISTS OF FALLING
UNDER US DOMINATION AND FAILING TO REPRESENT THE INTERESTS OF
LATIN WORKERS. SEVERAL SCANDINAVIAN UNIONS WERE THREATENING
TO PULL OUT OF THE ICFTU IF GRIT WERE NOT DISBANDED AND
REPLACED BY~A~NEW, LATIN-ONLY ORGANIZATION. ICFTU AFFILIATES
HAVE BEEN IMPATIENT WITH ORIT'S STRUCTURAL ANi3 FINANCIAL
DISARRAY IN RECENT' YEARS, ANNOYED AT THE LATINS' CONNECTT.ON
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WITW AFL-CIO {W~~HICH IS NOT AN ICFTU MEMBER}, AND DISGUSTED
.WITH ORIT'S FAILURE TO CONDEMN THE REPRESSION OF UNIONISM IN
CWILE?
FOR TWEIR PART, THE LATIN LABOP, REPRESENTATIVES REMAIN
DIVIDED ON MANY INTERNAL ORIT MATTERS, 8UT Tf~EY HAVE STOOD
SOLIDLY TOGETHER IN .BITTER OPPOSITION TO INTERFERENCE FROM
OUTSIDE THE REGION.. ANOTHER, AND RELATIVELY IvEW, POINT OF
,4GREEMENT IS TO KEEP THE LINK WITH US LABOR, WHICH PROVIDES
MUCW NEEDED ~~FINANCIAI ASSISTANCE. BEYOND THAT, IT IS DIFFICULT
TO FIND ANY PRACTICAL OR IDE~'LOGICAL MATTER THAT UNITES LATIN
AMERICAN LABOR.
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