EAST ASIA BRIEF 130-75. 4

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010032-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 14, 2005
• Sequence Number: 32
• Publication Date: August 20, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

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1. LAOS: THE COMMUNISTS MAY BE PLANNING TO USE THE DEMONSTRATIONS
IN VIENTIANE TO RID THE GOVERNMENT OF ADDITIONAL NON-COMMUNIST
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DEMONSTRATORS WILL DEMAND A PURGE OF CORRUPT GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS
AT THE FINAL MASS RALLY, REPORTEDLY SCHEDULED FOR AUGUST 22 TO
CELEBRATF THE "LIBERATION" OF THE CITY. SPECIFIC TARGETS MAY
INCLUDE DEFENSE MINISTER PHENG PHONGSAVAN, A ONCE-POWERFUL
NEUTRALIST POLITICIAN, AND ARMED FORCES COMMANDER BOUNPONE
MARKTHEPARAKS. IF THESE OFFICIALS ARE ACCUSED OF CORRUPTION,
THEY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY RESIGN AND BE REPLACED BY LESSER
KNOWN FIGURES DEPENDENT ON THE COMC1UNISTS.W//M
//AS THE PROCESS OF "LIBERATING" VIENTIANE IS BEING
COMPLETED, THE COMMUNISTS HAVE BEEN TIGHTENING THEIR CONTROL
OVER THE POPULATION. POLICE UNITS REPORTEDLY HAVE BEEN ROUNDING
UP YOUNG PEOPLE JUDGED HOOLIGANS BECAUSE OF LONG HAIR AND
FLAMBOYANT WESTERN ATTIRE. PATHET LAO TROOPS HAVE SET UP
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ROADBLOCKS 'THROUGHOUT THE CITY TO EXAMINE DOCUMENTATION AND
SEARCH VEHICLES. THE POLICE SO FAR HAVE BEEN POLITE IN DEALINGS
WITH AMERICAN DIPLOMATS
E-2 IMPDET.d
VIENTIANE, WAS JOINTLY GOVERNED BY THE TWO SIDEC~
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THE COMMUNISTS ON AUGUST 18 REPORTEDLY COMPLETED THEIR
TAKE-OVER OF LUANG PRABANG, THE ROYAL CAPITAL. ACCORDING TO RADIO
PATHET LAO, DEMONSTRATORS IN THE CITY DEMANDED THE OUSTER OF ALL
LOCAL ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS. THE OLD ADMINISTRATION, THEREFORE,
WAS COMPLETELY ABOLISHED AND NEW "REVv;.UTIONARY" OFFICIALS
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APPOINTED. UNDER THE 1973 PEACE ACCORDS, LUANG PRABANG, LIKE
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URUGUAY: THE CONFLICT BETWEEN CIVILIAN AND MILITARY OFFICIALS
OVER CONTROL Of THE NATION'S ECONOMIC POLICYMAKING MACHINERY HAS BEEN
TEt1PORARIOY 1 ESOLVED i BUT THE UNDERLYING CAUSES OF THE DIFFICULTIES
REMAIN?Y
MINISTER OF ECONOMY AND FINANCE ALEJANDRO VEGH% WHO RESIGNED
WHEN THE MILITARY ATTEMPTED TO CANCEL A 0110 MILLION LOAN HE HAD
NEGOTIATED WITH A CONSORTIUM OF FOREIGN BANKS+ VITHDREM HIS RESIGNA-
TION AFTER PRESIDENT BORDABERRY AND THE MILITARY HIGH COMMAND
AGREED TO LET THE LOAN GO ThiROUGH- VEGH, HOWEVER FAILED IN HIS
ATTEMPT TO HAVE GENERAL ABDON RAIMUPtDEZ, VICE PRESIDENT Of THE BANK
Of THE REPUBLIC AND AN OPPOP ENI OF HIS AUSTERITY POLICY% REMOVED
:'ROM HIS POSITIOR- Y
THE IISPUTE AID, ITS COMPROMISE SOLUTION ARE TYPICAL Of THE
DIFFICULTn:; VEGH AND OTHER CIVILIANS HAVE HAD WITH MILITARY OFFICERS
WHO OCCUPY KEY FISTS 'THROUGHOUT THE BUREAUCRACY- W} ILE t]IEGH MAY
BE WILE TO CENTRALIZE POLICYMAKING ON ECONOMIC MATTERS IN HIS OFFICE
FOR A WHILES HIS MOVES WILL BE CLOSELY S1 UTINIZED BY THE MILITARY
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HIGH COMMAND. THE CONFLICT BETWEEN CIVIIIAN 14 41 MILITARY OFPICIA`S
OVER WHO LAKES ECONOMIC POLICY WILL C6NTINL" ','0 BE THE NATION" S
MAJOR POLITIC IRRITANT.
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I. PORTUGAL: THE COMMUNIST COUNTEROFFENSIVE THAT BEGAII LAST
WEEK WHEN PARTY LEADER CUNHAL EXHORTED PARTY MILITANTS TO RETURN'
TO AREAS IN NORTHERN PORTUGAL APPEARS TO HAVE STALLS: i> . M
THE COMMUNISTS HAVE CANCELED THE SECOND RALLY OF THEIR
CAMPAIGN-SCHEDULED FOR PORTO TUESDAY NIGHT-IN VIEW OF "THE CUs'RENT
POLITICAL SITUATION." THEIR FIRST EFFORT, IN AL.COBACA, RAN INTO
STIFF RESISTANCE.Y
THE DECISION TO CALL OFF THE PORTO BALL',' WAS DOUBTLESS
INFLUENCED BY CONTINUING ATTACKS ON PARTY OFFICES IN THE I.1ORT1;-
IN A TOWN NEAR PORTO LAST NIGHT, A PARTY MEMBER WAS KILLED BY
GUNFIRE FROM SECURITY FORCES. EVEN THOUGH THE COMMUNISTS HAVE
VOWED TO "TAKE PRECAUTIONS" AGAINST THE ANTI-COMMUNISTS-1 PARTY
LEADERS HAVE BEEN MADE CAUTIOUS BY THE GROWING TENDENCY OF INTERNAL
SECURITY TROOPS-ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH-TO ACT ON THEIR OUN-Y
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PRESSING FOR THE REMOVAL OF THE REGIONAL COMMANDER, GENERAL
CORVACHO, CONSIDERED TO BE A COMMUNIST SYMPATHIZER AND AN ALLY
OF PRIME MINISTER GONCALVES. ACCORDING TO A COMMUNIQUE RELEASED
ON TUESDAY BY PHE il;~i~THE J REGIONAL HEADQUAc%TERS, CORIVAC,iO HAS
BEEN TEMPORARILY RELIEVED OF HIS COMMANDEY
COMMUNIST CONTROL OF LABOR IS ALSO ERODING. THE PARTY MADE
A CONCERTED EFFORT TO SHOD ITS ]MUSCLE BY CAI-LING FOR A HALF-HOUR
GENERAL STRIKE ON TUESDAY, MODIFIED THE CALL BY LIMITING
IT TO THE LISBON AREA- THE IMPACT OF THE STRIKE WAS MINIMAL.
ITS PRIMARY EFFECT UAS TO FEED A~'JTI-COMMUNIST SENTIMENT IN LISBON
THE FAILURE OF THE STRIKE WILL BE SEEN AS ANOTHER DEFEAT FOND
PRIME MINISTER GONCALVES.Y
FORMER PRESIDENT SPINOL.A, U'110 IS LIVING IN EXILE IN RIO DE
JANEIRO, HAS ADDED HIS '10_CE TO THE ANTI-GONCALVES CHORUS. IN
AN OPEN LETTER TO PRES_DE:JT COSTA GOMES, SPIMOLA APPEALED FOR
UNITY 9EHIND HIS "DEMOCRA 1 IC MOVEMENT FOR THE LIBERATION OF
PORTUGAL." COSTA GO;'!ES - U !H3 RELEASED THE DOCUMENT ON T IJ =SDAY,
CRITICIZED SPINOLA, BUT DID N"O T CONDEMN THE LETTER. %'
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IN FACT, THE APPEAL FROM SPINOLA MAY ADD FORCE TO THE
PERIODIC WARNINGS FROM GONCALVES THAT PORTUGAL IS IN DANGER OF
RETURNING TO FASCISM. THIS DANGER IS OF SUCH AN OVERRIDING
CONCEi N FOR 1`i_ i1E" SRS rr iriE ~~ED i ORCES MOVEMENT iHAi iA;i''~
WILL CONTINUE TO HESITATE TO TAKE ACTION AGAINST GONCALVES (,\P\-.
IF HE IS FINALLY OUSTED, THEY WILL SEEK TO MAKE SURE THAT A
NEW GOVERNMENT DOES NOT PROVIDE AN OPENING TO THE RIGHT.
2. USSR-POR T UGUAL : PRAVDA PUBLISHED AN AUTHORITATIVE
"OBSERVER" ARTICLE ON TUESDAY 0`1 THE SITUATION IN PORTUGAL. UNLIKE
MOST SOVIET COMMENTARY ON THE SUBJECT, THE ARTICLE EXPRESSES
MOSCOW'S VIEWS DIRECTLY, RATHER THAN THROUGH THE MOUTHS OF THE
PORTUGUESE COMMUNISTS OR OTHER I`aTERMEDIARIES.Y
LIKE OTHER RECENT SOVIET COVERAGE, THE GENERAL TONE OF 'i'!?i,_
"OBSERVER" ARTICLE IS DEF:E.SIVE ,ND P-SSTMISTIC. AS THE D LSIn-_;S
OF THE PORTUGUESE COH"U;1::S T S HAS DE-EPENED, THE SOVI=T' S A';'r'ARr i T
CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE CC ;RSE OF EVENTS IN PORTUGAL ;-i;',("I'J-N
TO INCaF_A~.ING CRIT:CCI_;"' OF OUTS MEDDLING.Y
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PRESENT SITUATION IN PORTUGAL AND EVENTS IN CHILE JUST BEFORE THE
OVERTHROW OF ALLENDE THAT FIRST APPEARED IN A SOVIET BROADCAST TO
HUNGARY ON AUGUST 15. NATO, THE WESTERN PRESS, WESTERN ECONOMIC
ORGANIZATIONS AND, SIGNIFICANTLY,-"INTERNATIONAL SOCIAL
DEMOCRACY;" ARE SEVERELY CRITICIZED IN THE ARTICLE. THE CHINESE
ALSO ARE DRAGGED INTO THE CAST OF EVILDOERS; THEY ARE ACCUSED OF
COOPERATING WITH INTERNATIONAL?YEACTION BY FOMENTING DISCORD EN
ANGOLA AND THE AZORES.Y
PRAVDA CHARGES THAT THE PORTUGUESE SOCIALIST LEADERS
ARE PROVIDING A RALLYING POINT FOR REACTIONARIES BY ATTACKING
THE COMMUNISTS, BUT THE TONE IS LESS STRIDENT THAN WHEN MOSCOU
DENOUNCED THE SOCIALISTS IMMEDIATELY AFTER THEY LEFT THE
GOVERNMENT. INDEED, 31PRAVDA AGAIN CALLS FOR "CONCERTED
ACTION" BY THE ARMED FORCES MOVEMENT, THE COMMUNISTS, THE
SOCIALISTS, AND OTHER LEFT PROGRESSIVE FORCES. THE SOVIETS HAVE
REPEATED THIS THEME, WHICH IS NOW AT LEAST NOMINALLY IN ACCO&I
WITH CUNHALJ'S *OWN PROFESSED POLICIES, MORE FREQUENTLY TN ".ECI_N T
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DAYS-Y
THE SOVIETS WOULD CLEARLY LIKE TO SEE THE POR?ri.IGUESE COMMUNESTS
RECOVER FROM THEIR PRESENT ISOLATION, BUT THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION
THEY BELIEVE THEIR EXHORTATIONS !MILL HAVE MUCH PRACTICAL EFFECT.
PRAVDA 3JCONCLUDES WITH A CALL FOR? "MASSIVE SOLIDARITY'" WITH
THE FORCES FIGHTING REACTION IN PORTUGAL- UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES,
THIS IS THE MINIMUM THAT MOSCOW MIGHT BE EXPECTED TO SAY TO
PRESERVE ITS REVOLUTIONARY' CREDENTIALS. PRAVDA OFFERS NO
PRACTICAL ADVICE AND PROVIDES NO CLUES ABOUT WHAT., IF ANY, ACTION
THE SOVIETS THEMSELVES MIGHT TAKE IN SUPPORT OF THE PORTUGUESE
COMMUNISTS.
3. HUNGARY-PORTUGAL: THE HUNGARIAN COMMUNIST PARTY HAS BECOT1E
THE FIST IN EASTERN EUROPE TO ISSUE A FORMAL STATEMENT
OF SOLIDARITY WITH THE PORTUGUESE C01IMUNIST PARTY.
IN A 113-WORD STATEMENT TO THE PCP CENTRAL COMMIT-
TEE THAT HAD CLEARLY BEEN COORDINATED WITH i1OSC0111),
THE HUNGARIAN PARTY CENTRAL COMMITTEE EXPRESSES
SHOCK AT THE "INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED" ATTACKS
e, p. ?iNC? J.rau COORDINATING C)FtlC RS A.'Il?__?'" " ?" '- ''r
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AGAINST PORTUGUESE DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT; CITES
COOPERATION BETWEEN THE "DEMOCRACY ANTIFASCIST
FORCES" AS THE BEST DEFENSE; AND ASSURES "THE
PORTUGUESE COMMUNISTS AND THE ANTIFASCISTS" OF
HUNGARIAN SOLIDARITY.Y
THE HUNGARIAN DECLARATION, MADE NO PROMISE
OF ANY AID. VERBAL STATEMENTS SUCH AS THIS PRO-
VIDE AN EASY [JAY FOR THE SOVIETS TO DISPLAY THEIR
SUPPORT OF THE PORTUGUESE COMMUNISTS, AND THE
HUNGARIAN STATEMENT WILL PROBABLY BE FOLLOWED BY
OTHERS FROM EASTERN EUROPE.
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POSITION I.IITH EGYPT ARE PREPARING TO MOUNT INTENSIVE DEMONSTRATIONS
TO COINCIDE WITH SECRETARY KISSINGER'S VISIT TO THE MIDDLE EAST
STARTING ON THURSDAY.//Y
DEFENSE MINISTER PERES, AND FOREIGN MINISTER ALLON. THE CONSENSUS
AGREEMENT IJORKED OUT BY THE I1;~t~OTIATING TEAM OF PRIME MINISTER RABIN,
PREVENT RATIFICATION BY THE HH1ESSET OF AN EVENTUAL NEW SINAI
1.//ISRAEL RIGHT-WING CRITICS OF THE GOVERNMENT'S NEGOTIATING
//IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SUCH TACTICS WILL DISSUADE THE GOVERNMENT
FROM ITS CHOSEN COURSE OF ACTION, OR THAT RIGHT-WING PRESSURES WILL
DECIDE TO CITE THE DEMONSTRATIONS TO JUSTIFY TEL AVIV'S OPPOSITION
SMALL-TO-COMFORTABLE MARGIN. RABIN.COULD, HOWEVER, AT SOME POINT
BEEN IN CONTACT RECENTLY IS THAT AN AGREEMENT WOULD PASS BY A
AMONG KNESSET DEPUTIES WITH WHOM THE US EMBASSY IN TEL AVIV HAS
TO MAKING FURTHER CONCESSIONS. //Y
TO PROTEST ANY ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL IN THE SINAI IN TI-i~ AB:~'7N'1CE ?F A
// SOiiE OF THE LEMO:'iSTFATION` S COULD BE LARGE. THE LlIKUD OP?o:ITION
BLOC ASSEMBLED APPROXIMATELY 25,000 PEOPLE IN TEL AVIV LAST i'Q'iT!a
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FORMAL EGYPTIAN DECLARATION OF NONBELLIGERENCY?//Y.
//A SUBSTANTIAL AND GROWING NUMBER OF ISRAELIS ARE CLEARLY
UNEASY ABOUT THE OUTCOME OF THE NEGOTIATIONS WITH EGYPT. THEY FEAR
THAT SECRETARY KISSINGER'S ARRIVAL IN TEL AVIV TOMORROW SIGNALS
AN INTENSIFICATION OF US PRESSURE AN ISRAEL TO MAKE ADDITIONAL
CONCESSIONS TO EGYPT, BUT WITHOUT RECEIVING ADEQUATE SAFEGUARDS
FROM CAIRO AGAINST A NEW ATTACK. ISRAELI PUBLIC OPINION POLLS HAVE
REFLECTED A SHARP DECLINE SINCE APRIL IN THE NUMBER OF ISRAELIS
WHO THINK THAT US MIDDLE EAST POLICY SUPPORTS ISRAEl. //4'
//THE MOST RECENT OPINION POLL SHOWS THAT ALMOST HALF OF THE
RESPONDENTS ARE DISSATISFIED WITH THE GOVERNMENT'S CONDUCT OF THE
NEGOTIATIONS. AS REFLECTED IN THE ISRAELI PRESS, THIS SEEMS IN GOOD
MEASURE ATTRIBUTABLE TO FEA?S THAT'TEL AVIV IS CAUGHT UP IN A
PROCESS THE TIMING AND OUTCOME OF WHICH CANNOT BE CONTROLLED BY THE
RABIN GOVERNMENT.//Y
//MANY ISRAELIS QUESTION UHETHER THE GOVERNIIENT HAS -', CLEAR
NEGOTIATING CONCEPT AND TS NOT SIMPLY RESPONDING TO EXTERNAL
PRESSURES. RABINAI' S BASIC POSITION THAT A NEW AGREEMENT HILL GAIN
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TIME FOR ISRAEL HAS ALSO BEEN CHALLENGED BY PROMINENT ISRAELIS-
CRITICS WITHIN THE PRIME MINISTER'S LABOR PP?TY, SUCH AS FORMER
DEFENSE MINISTER DAYAN AND FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER EBAN, HAVE
ON NUMEROUS OCCASIONS STATED PUBLICLY THAT IT IS ILLUSORY TO
EXPECT ANOTHER SINAI AGREEMENT TO AVE ISRAEL A RESPITE FROM
ADDITIONAL NEGOTIATIONS.//Y
//THE GOVERNMENT HAS LAUNCHED A CAMPAIGN TO COUNTER THE CRITICS
AND TO EXPLAIN THE POTENTIAU BENEFITS OF ANOTHER AGREEMENT WITH
EGYPT. RABIN DEFENDED THE GOVERNNEVJT'S NEGOTIATING POSITION AND THE
SECRETARY'S VISIT AT A STORMY KNESSET SESSION MONDAY ON THE GROUNDS
THAT THE NEGOTIATIONS HAVE NOW REACHED AN "ADVANCED"ISTAGE. HE
REPORTEDLY TOLD A LABOR ALIGNMENT CAUCUS THAT AN INTERIM AGREEMENT
WITH EGYPT WOULD NOT OILY PROVIDE A .CHANCE TO IMPROVE ARAB-ISRAELI
RELATIONS, BUT WOULD ALSO LEAD T O "UNPRECEDENTED" US-ISRAELI
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