PUSHTUNISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R002000190009-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 10, 2005
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: March 10, 1961
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFF-ICE- OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
10 March 1961
STAFF MEMORANDUM NO 18-61 (Internal 0/NE Working Paper-
CIA Distribution Only)
SUBJECT: 11PUSHTUNISTAN" 1
1, The >Pushtunistan't quarrel between Pakistan and
Afghanistan has smouldered ever since 19h7.111 This unlikely-
sounding issue merits renewed attention at the moment for two
reasons: (1) We believe that tensions have reached a point
where there is about an even chance of substantial disturbances
along the Pakistani Afghan border in the current year, and
(2) If a new flareup occursy the US will probably be more
directly involved than in the past.
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The quarrel centers on Aft=hanistan's insistence that the
six million Pushtuns (Pathans) who live in Pakistan-s
North-West Frontier area, and who are of the same tribal
soup as the dominant element in Afghanistan, should be
given an opportunity to opt for an independent state of
ttPushtunistan."t
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Prospects fora Clash
1!V)%USA: t'A!L
2. The I'Dishtunistan" dispute has flared into ,9mei.l scale
tribal fighting along the border several times in the past
dozen years. Tension has Zfrown rapidly during the last six
months. Last fall a force of Afghan irre gularu which entered
Pakistan in support of dissidenttribesmen was badly mauled by
the Pakistanis., who took advanta+:;e of the disturbance to occupy
the remote border area involved. Within the past month pro-
Afghan tribal elements in an adjacent area have boon bombed
and strafed by the Pakistan Air Force.
3. There are clear indications that the Afghans plan to
continue their agitation. Foreign Minister Maim (usually a
moderate on the tIPushtunistanhI issue) and his militant brother.,
Prime Minister Daud, have both made statements to this effect.
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11o Pakistani leaders,, including President Ayub, have made
no secret of their intention to hit back hard if the AfGhans
offer further provocation. Some of them have talked about
occupying territory across the international boundary into
Afghani?tan in order to surround the border hills wherein the
tribal areas are centered.
International Implications
5o During the years that the I'Pushtunistan" quarrel has
dragged on,, the US has expanded its relations with Pakistan
while the USSR has come to have increasingly close ties with
Afghanistan. Both the great powers have provided arms for the
respective sides, The USSR has openly supported the Afghan
position on "Pushtunistan." The US, on the other hand,, has
carefully avoided taking sides on the issu
--3-
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ix,
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6. Additionally,, the Afc;hans have condemned Pakistanis
use of arms received under the US military assistance pr%(Tam
against the dissident tribesmen. (The recent bombing attacks
were carried out by F 86 Fso) The Pakistanis can argue
legitimately that they have a perfect right to u= the I' AP
weapons to maintain internal security or to repel agggrassion.
The legal question would be less clear if they were to use the
weapons in a countermove which violated the international
boundary but this would be unlikely to deter Karachi in its
present mood. The Afghans, whose main purpose is to inspire
tribal warfare, will be reluctant to commit heavy equipment.,
but would almost certainly employ their Soviet-supplied
aircraft and tanks as best they could in the'event of a
Pakistani raid into Afghanistan.
7. The US, through its ambassadors in Kabul and .Karachi,
has urged moderation on both sides,, but there is little reasor
to believe that this will have much effect. Nor is any other
way of preventing a clash immediately apparent. Afghanistan
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