BANGLADESH: THE FOODGRAIN OUTLOOK THROUGH 1985

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001900030060-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 40
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 18, 2005
• Sequence Number: 60
• Publication Date: January 1, 1985
• Content Type: REPORT

STAT
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BANGLADESH: The Foodgrain Outlook
Through 19 8 5
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25X1
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TZhl.e of Contents
S tat:cmcnt: of Oh jectives and Conclusions . . . . . . 1
1. Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
A. The Agricultural Scene . . . . . . . . . . 4
B. The Human Environment. . . . . . . . . . . 6
C. Production Since 1.948. . . . . . . . . . . 7
D. Government Policy. . 9
II. Factors Affecting Future Demand. . . . . . . 12
III. Factors Affecting Future Supply. . . . . . . . 16
A. Weather and Climate. . . . . . . . . . . . 16
B. Agricultural Inputs. . . . . . . . . . . 18
C. Multiple Cropping. . 21
D. Institutional Barriers . . . . . . . . . . 23
IV. Production Shortfall in 1985 . . . . . . . . . 24
V. Financing Development and Grain Imports. . . . 27
Appendix 29
Tables 1-5 33-37
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I3A'-,G1."'DES11 The roo a.rain Cui:Look ThroL'.Cih 1985
Obj~.Ctiyo_S
The objectives of this paper al:e to assess past and
prospective 13a;;c;ladesh agricultural development and, on the
basis of this assess:,,ent, to forecast the probable 1985 gap
between fooc?gr.ain production and requirements.
Bangladesh agriculture responded favorably during the
1960s when the Pakistan government increased inw-estment in its
east wing. Peak foodgrain production rose from 8.4 million
tons during the 1950s to 12.1 million tons in FY 1970. After
severe setbacks in focdgr?in production as a result of natural
disasters and the civil war, foodgrain production in FY 1974
recovered to its FY 1970 level. Demand has continued to
increase and imports rose to 2.9 million tons in FY 1973 before
falling to 2.1 million tons last year,
Dacca will have to give agriculture much more attention
if the growth rate of the 1960s is to be maintained. Moreover,
accelerated growth must be attained if the gap between demand
and domestic production is not to widen over the next decade.
The pressure of population growth on Bangladesh's agricul-
tural resources has been growing at an increasing rate. No
significant decline is in sight. Death rates have fallen
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shai.:ply, hut family planning measures Have had virtually no
impact. Budgetary support for birth control programs is
minimal. Demographc..rs foresee little change in the birth rate
and project. a 1985 I_popul.aLion exceeding 115 million.
Clearly, there is good potential for raising agricultural
production. For example, Bangladesh ranks among the world's
lowest in fertilizer application; irrigation can add six million
acres to planted area in the dry season; and less than 15% of
cultivated land is under high yielding varieties (IIYV) of
grains.
There are also substantial obstacles to the realization
of Bangladesh's agricultural potential. Only since 1971 has
Dacca had control over agricultural policies, and administrative
experience is scarce. Dacca is likely to bow to expediency,
adopting a patchwork of measures having limited impact. Areas
that require particular attention include:
Reduction in the population growth rate through
vigorous family planning programs.
More rapid development of irrigation, especially,
of intensive systems capable of supporting the
multiple cropping of HYVs.
Flood control to protect farmland and reduce the
annual variation in rice production.
Massive improvement in the production and distri-
bution of HYV seeds, fertilizer, and other
agricultural inputs.
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I?xpandiric; ag.r, icultural credits and giving a
larger shr.rc, to small farmers.
We believe than. the Bangladesh government could formulate
and implement policies, that would significantly reduce food-
grain imports by 1.985. In the light of past performance,
however, this is an unlike:.y achievement. We believe Bangladesh's
agricultural policy will continue to be sporadically responsive
to production shortfalls.
Unless government performance changes dramatically, the
1985 gap between production and domestic demand appears likely
to fall within a range of 3 million to 4 million tons. Then,
as now, Bangladesh will have great difficulty financing imports
to close that gap.
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I. F3ackgrounci
A. The Agricultural Scene
Agriculture is Bangladesh's most important economic
activity, contributing about. 601,i of gross domestic product
(GDP), compared with 97i for manufacturing. More than three-
quarters of the people are farmers. Nonetheless, Bangladesh
is unable to feed its 80 million people and requires imports
of 10% of total foodgrain consumption in normal years and up
to 20% in poor years. Increasing domestic production is
difficult and costly because all available land is already
cultivated. Most farmers grow little more than enough to
feed their own families. Production methods are primitive,
farmers are burdened with debt, and yield per ac-=e is among
the lowest in the world. Poverty hinders the adopting of
improved agricultural methods. Many seek not the largest crop
but the surest one.
Rice is the mainstay of the diet and is grown almost to
the exclusion of ocher cereals. Rice yields are largely
influenced by the timing of rainfall and inundation. Two of
the world's largest rivers, the Ganges and the Brahmaputra,
flow through Bangladesh, and a third -- the Meghna -- flows
from Assam, the wettest part of India. The total annual
flow of these rivers and their tributaries is twice that of
the Mississippi. The summer monsoon deposits from 50 to 150
inches of rainfall, usually flooding vast areas and sometimes
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causing widespread crop and property damage. In October the
rains step, the land drains, and the rivers shrink, Generally,
by February, drought conditions set in, and until Nay irrigation
is required for crop gro,.;th. This hydrological cycle makes it
necessary to e;:,ploy both flood control and irrigation systems
to realize the regions' agricultural potential.
The soil is fertile, and the climate permits plant growth
throughout the year. There are three seasons a year in which
rice can be cultivated, but they overlap to some extent so
that the same land cannot carry all three. The three annual
rice crops are (a) the aus harvest in July and August, (b) the
aman harvest in November and December; and (c) the boro harvest
in April and May (see Figure 1). They represent about 20%,
60%, and 20%, respectively, of rice output. The aman crop is
grown practically throughout the country in both highlands
and lowlands. It is sown earlier on lowlands to permit
sufficient growth to withstand inundation by monsoon floods.
The aus crop also is widespread, but has a shorter season and
is limited to highlands to avoid monsoon flooding. The boro
crop, grown during the dry season, is limited by irrigation
requirements and is grown mainly in the marshy northeast.
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Bangladesh: Growing Seasons of Rice Crops
Amm
Highland
M,an
Loveland
Boro
Lowland
Aus
Highland
Set LI I PrII ""-
pant ~ lrror.7h Ilarvcst
I--~I~i
Figure 1
Growth i
Gr;w;h ! Harvest / plant I j Growth
-~ harvest
c~
Plant 1
Saedn s
5-?=--- Plant Mom', liar ve%t
Jul Aug Sap Oct Nov Dec Jo. Feb Mat Apt May Jun
B. The Human Environnent
The average land-owning villager possesses only 1.5
acrese He rents another acre from the well-to--do villagers
and therefore cultivates 2.5 acres. This area is usually
fragmented into ten or more plots, some of which may be a mile
or more away from the homestead. He owns one scrawny cow for
ploughing. The plow is a light 15 pound rig, which turns only
two or three inches of soil. The principal family resource is
the rice kept for consumption, the product from about two
acres. Since the usual rent of rice land is 50% of the crop,
the average villager will get little more than enough produce
to feed his family and finance a few purchases of clothing,
cooking oil, etc. If he becomes indebted to money lenders, he
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barely manages interest p~:y7,ents, and an occasional bar]. year
puts him even deeper into debt.
The lives of the one-tenth of village laborers who are
landless are even more grim. They are at the mercy of the
landowners and are often evicted after a bad harvest. They
earn two meals of rice and 25G to 355: a day during the peak
of planting or harvesting season. In slack periods hardly
one in four will get a job, and even then for only 20~ a day
and no meals. During the slack season, therefore, the desparate
jobless often travel 100 miles or more to public construction
projects providing some employment. At planting or harvesting
time, they move back to their home areas.
C. Production Since 1948
Foodgrain output increased an average of 2.5% annually
between FY 1948 and FY 1970, ending with peak output of 12.1
million metric tons in the last year (see Table 1). Most of
the increase came during the 1960s, however, when output
expanded at 3.4% per year compared with virtual. stagnation
during the previous decade. Both acreage and yields expanded
rapidly during the latter decade largely because of the
increasing importance of the boro crop. Expansion of irrigation
facilities allowed for a doubling of boro acreage during the
decade (see Table 2). The.introduction of high yielding
varieties of rice in the mid-1960s was also concentrated in the
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bor.o crop causing yields to double (see Table 3) . Expansion
of the aus and aman crops has been limited by the lack of
adequate control of- monsoon flooding. IIYV rice demand more
precise water control than traditional varieties. In FY 1972
HYV rice contributed 6%, 15%, and 52., of the rice output of
the aus, aman, and Moro crops, resrectively.
Rice production reached 12.0 million tons in FY 1974
according to the Agricultural Minister, but other expert
observers estimate output at 12.3 million to 12.5 million tons.
Even the government's lower estimate represents a 19% increase
over the pr_eceeding year and signifies a recovery to pre-
independence production levels. But with more mouths to feed,
per capita production still has not recovered completely.
Production during FY 1971 and FY 1973 was reduced by the
cyclone of November 1970, the civil war of 1971, and the poor
1972 monsoon.
Rice production has been inadequate to feed the population
since the 1930s. During the 1950s East Pakistan slipped from
near self-sufficiency in foodgrains to becoming a large importer
as population growth accelerated while rice production
stagnated (see Table 4). Even when rice production began
increasing more rapidly during the 1960s, East Pakistan's food-
grain imports continued to rise, especially when floods or
drought reduced domestic production.
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Wry hw>!' ..
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The 1974 monsoon has been heavy through the third week
of Auqu:-,t hr:Lnging unusually severe flooding, especially in
the eastern areas, An assessment of the crop damage cannot
be made with any degree of accuracy before September. The
government had earlier projected FY 1974 foodgrain imports at
1.7 million tons, of which at least 500,000 tons have already
been arranged.
D. Government Policy
In its First Five Year Plan (FY 1974-78), Dacca has
set a goal of foodgrain self-sufficiency by the last year of
the Plan. Rice production is to sustain a growth rate of over
6s- annually -- un unprecedented rate. In addition, wheat
output is to grow 32% per year. To accomplish such growth,
Dacca is to undertake massive programs to expand irrigation,
control annual flooding, increase HYV rice acreage, expand
rural credit institutions, and improve availability of fertilizer,
pesticides, and herbicides. One-quarter of the development
budget has been allocated to agriculture and related sectors.
Considering the meager resources available and the problems
confronting agriculture, however, Bangladesh will be fortunate
if foodgrain production simply keeps pace with population
growth and the foodgrain deficit does not increase.
The government's foodgrain distribution system was
re-established and expanded by the UN following independence,
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but its administration has since been returned to the govern--
ment. Official f_oodgra.i_n stocks are distribut.ocl through
government fair price shops -- specially licensed small private
stores. Food.grains P,nd other essential commodities are sold
to ration card holders in fixed arnount.s and at set prices.
Statutory rationing exists in four main cities --- Dacca, I;hulna,
Chittagong, and Naraycinganj -- whore minimum foodgrai.i needs
are provided to everyone --- about 6 pounds weelcly per adult.
All other towns and rural food deficit areas have a modified
ration system in which only the poorer segment of the population
is issued ration cards and provided foodgrains. Substantial
quantities of foodgrains are also issued under relief in the
event of natural calamities or acute economic distress.
Almost all of the grain for the ration shop system cones
from imports. Although the government buys rice in the local
markets, mainly from the aman crop, its acquisitions have fallen
short. From the last aman crop, the government procurement
target. was 400,000'tons, but only 67,000 tons were obtained
because government agents offered prices substantially below
free market price.
The government's subsidized consumer programs do not conflict
with its subsidies to grain growers. Ration shop prices are
kept artificially low to retard cost of living increases, and
the high cost of imported foodgrains is absorbed by the
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government. The lot, procurement price for rice, however, is
not a disincentive to d.crr,estic production because of the strong
demand in the free ma.r%et. Agricultural inputs are also
subsidized. In 1.9 73 subsidies aar,ounted to 19% for urea, 571t
for phosphates, 55% for potash, 8071 for irrigation pumps, and
pesticides were usually distributed free. The incentive provided
by subsidizing agricultural inputs is difficult to determine.iri
a country where three-quarters of foodgrain output is consumed
by the grower.
Shortage of foodgrains is one of the major causes of
Bangladesh's continuing inflation. The price of rice has
doubled since independence, but rose only about 20% last yea-
because of increased production. The government has committed
itself to holding the general price rise in FY 1975 below 10%,
but achievment of this goal is unlikely. Along with actions in
other sectors of the economy, Dacca has cut the subsidies on
rationed foodstuffs, fertilizers, and pesticides. Last May,
ration prices for rice and wheat were increased 33% and 44%,
respectively,
Because of the high price of rice in India and a black market
currency exchange rate favoring the Indian rupee, there is
significant smuggling of rice from Bangladesh to India. No one
knows how much, but informed estimates range from 200,000 tons
to 500,000 tons annually. To combat smuggling, Dacca discontinued
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free trade with India in its border areas. Dacca requires
also thhaL the entire rice production from the husking mill.,,
within ten miles of the border be sold to the government.
Enforcement is difficult, however.
II . Factors Af feet-. net Future Demand
While there is substantial disagreement on the level of its
present population, there is no doubt that Bangladesh is the
worla's eighth most populous nation. Our estimate of population
is based on several assumptions, all of them ' conservative :
Population as of July 1970: 73.3 million
(Range of estimates; 71.5 - 77.5 million)
? Population growth rate: 3.0%.
(Range of estimates, 2.9 - 3.5%)
Fatalities in November 1970 cyclone: 300,000
(Government of Pakistan estimate: 250,000)
(Bangladesh claims of 500,000 appear inflated for
political reasons)
Fatalities in war for independence: 1.5 million
(Bangladesh claims of 3 million appear inflated for
political reasons)
War refugee exodus to India: All forced to return.
On the basis of these assumption, we estimate Bangladesh's
mid-1974 population at 80.8 million.
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Dacca estir;;ateS' present annual growth rate of population
at 3.09't- and has hopes for reducing this rate substantially, by
1985. Most demographers believe present population growth is
closer to 3.3" and that there is little chance of reducing it
significantly by 1985 especially since neorly half of the
population is less than 15 years old. If population grew at
3.09% per year, it would reach 112.9 million in mid-1985. At
3.3% per year, population would reach 11.5.5 million. There is
no precedent for a population of this magnitude living in an
essentially rural envircnrient in an area the size of Louisiana.
i Dacca has a small family planning program, but admits that
almost nothing has been accomplished since independence. M .any
Bengalis considered Pakistan's emphasis on family planning
before independence as a political weapon to reduce East Pakistan's
yV V L11111{C:ll1. L.L.L l.ll LV11LL V1 p uL i l.ln5 171:3u1 tiJ..C1C17L, Our. also tne
pre-conditions for success of such programs do not yet exist.
Although religion is not an obstacle to birth control, tradition
and economics are. A large family is a form of social security
and parents, aware of the high rate of child mortality, continue
to have children until at least one son grows to manhood. The
low level of literacy and economic development also hampers the
success of any birth control program. These condit_ons are not
likely to change rapidly in Bangladesh, where over 90% of the
13 -
population relative to that of West Pakistan. Not only are
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population lives in rural areas where they are engaged
principally in suh:-.i.si.:~nce agriculture.
The quality of the average diet is very low and malnutrition
is endemic. While: most of the rural population subsists on
what they grow, the average urban wage-earning family spends
about two-thirds of its budget on food. Consumption of leafy
vegetables and meat is low, but abundant fish provide some
protein. In most homes, only non-perishable foodstuffs can be
stored. Thus, foodgrai.ns account for some three-quarters of
the calories and 70% of the protein in the diet. There is
almost no margin for decreasing per capita consumption, so
declines in foodgrain availability could be disastrous.
In general, Bangladesh's Population can be considered
immobile, but the few cities provide a strong attraction for
the rural population. When times become harder in the rural
areas, because of drought, flood, or cyclone the flow to the
cities becomes a torrent. In Bangladesh's three largest cities
since 1961, Dacca's population has risen 193%, Khulna 439%, and
Chittagong 139%. Despite rapid expansion, less than 10%?of the
population lives in urban areas. There is also some illegal
migration into India. Its magnitude is dependent on the current
conditions in Bangladesh. Although a headache for India, the
present migration is far less than has occurred during several
periods since 1947.
''w.^ r..r .4t ~~S'.+ R.n..:. r! Y. r.r..!.a'('?n, i..:' :Yi+a: !~ Y".Y.!~".. ?.-....y... r- n.r'{. ?er+.?.-.Y.. ? n,r., v?.-T , _K.?
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The continuing migration to the cities complicates the
feeding and employment of the population. 't'he fangladesll
govornmerit: pays a C is:pr_'crportioniito ar;ount of attention to its
urban populations, part:lit because of their great density, and
partly because city dwellers are often more sophisticated and
politically active. Low incomes and high unemployment make
the cities potential trouble spots. To feed large urban
populations requires complex food distribution systems,
unnecessary in rural areas.
Another element affecting future foodgrain demand is the
price and income elasticity of demand -- the degree to which
changes in the price of foodgrains and average income will
affect demand for foodgrains. Tvo factors led to the exclusion
of price elasticity from consideration:
? Since foodgrains make up such a large part of the
diet and substitutes are scarce, it is reasonable
to assume that price elasticity of demand is low.
? There is no reliable method for predicting changes
in the Bangladesh price structure over the next
decade.
Therefore, it is assured that the price structure remains
basically unchanged.
The income elasticity of demand for foodgrains, on the
other hand, cannot be ignored because per capita income levels
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probably will change significantly over the next decade.
Sample. measur:crnents of income elasticity in Bangladesh in the
period F't i9 E i -G J by the Iiarvar_rd University Center for Popu-
lation Studios, using several different methods of calculation,
range from .32 to .40. (An income ei lasticity of .35 means
that for each 1% increase in per capita income, the demand for
foodgrains would increase 0.35%.)
III. Factors Affecting Future Sunoly
A. Weather and Climate
Foodgrain production will continue to be largely
dictated by rainfall and flooding. Rainfall changes during
any one year can drop foodgrain output by 10% or more. Like-
wise, highly favorable weather for a few years raises output
rapidly. Nevertheless, output projections for even one year,
much less for 10 years, must be made with the assumption of
normal or average weather, because there is no reliable
methodology for predicting weather patterns at present. The
world's climatologists have theories and are developing
techniques, but none is advanced enough to be reliably applied
to Bangladesh.
The next most important determinant of foodgrain production
is the annual flood, which occurs sometime during the monsoon.
Two-thirds of the cultivated area is inundated to a depth of
more than one foot, one-third to a depth of three feet, and
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about 1.5% to a depth of more than six feet. Villagers are
accustomed to such "normal floods" and their crops are adapted
to it. The uncertainties of timing, duration, extent, and
depth of floods result in considerable crop losses, as well as
property damage. Early floods ruin young rice plants in the
fields or destroy seed beds. If the flood is late and persists
while the rice is in flower, yields fall sharply. Floods
usually rise and fall fairly quickly, but if they stand over
four days, many rice plants are destroyed. If the flood is
too deep, short-stemmed rice plants on relatively high ground
will. drown. If the flood is not deep enough, rice on the high
ground will not get sufficient moisture.
Cyclonic storms are another threat, sometimes even more
damaging than the annual floods. Tropical storms moving up the
the
Bay of Bengal, frequently batter the coastal regions and/flat
delta terrain is defenseless against the tidal waves that often
accompany them. The strong winds and heavy rains can flatten
rice fields for 50 ,to 100 miles inland. Crop damage and loss
of life caused by cyclones has worsened as population pressure
forces more people into the vulnerable coastal area. A
government program to reduce salt water damage to coastal
croplands %-.as started in 1959. Over 2,200 miles of embankments
have been buil.t.
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The dovolopment of water resources in Bangladesh has lagged
behind that of the re:,t of the subcontinent for two main
reasons. Fx r. st, agricultural production met the needs of the
people until the 1930s. Second, the development of water
resources, whether by irrigation of dry lands or by protection
and drainage of flooded lands, is relatively expensive and
technically complex in the Bangladesh environment;.
B. 11grcultural Inputs
Accelerating foodgrain output depends heavily upon
raising rice yields by increased use of IIYVs, fertilizer, and
pesticides. The potential for raising yields of traditional
varieties is quite limited. The latter are relatively tall,
weak-stemmed plants. Abundant application of fertilizer
produces heavier heads causing the plants to fall over or
lodge. Increased rice yields, therefore, require a major
modification in rice cultivation.
HYV rice, originally developed by the International Rice
Research Institute-in the Philippines, has shorter and stronger
stems capable of holding much larger heads. Yields double that
of traditional varieties are common with proper care. While
HYV rice opens up enormous production possibilities, it is
definitely not "miraculous." It requires difficult adjustments
in institutions and cultural practices if full benefits are to
be reaped. Pest control, weed control, better land preparation,
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controlled irrigation, proper: timing in transplanting, and
appropriate use of fertilizers are all. necessary to take
ar3.vantage of the new teechnol.ogy. T'?.is implies a heavy burden
on research, extension and educational service.
One of the original HYV rice varieties, IRS,. was introduced
in 1966 for use in the }bboro and aus crops. But IRS was not
popular because of poor taste and milling qualities, suscepti-
bility to local diseases, and a relatively long growing period
that made it difficult to fit into the normal seasonal culti-
vation pattern. The newer IR20 variety, introduced in 1970,
overcame most of these difficulties. IR20's short growing
period increases the possibilities for double and triple
cropping. On the negative side, IR20 can only withstand
inundations of up to one foot and therefore, is unsuitable for
growth during the monsoon, season except in relatively high
areas. Despite encouraging results, especially in the boro
crop, adoption has been slow because of the civil war and the
persisting economid dislocations. The government's Rice
Research Institute near Dacca is developing hybrids with
traditional varieties that will stand deep inundation. Some
progress has been made on new varieties that can be used in
the aus crop, but none have been developed that grow under the
deep flood conditions of the aman crop.
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Use of manufactured fertilizer in Bangladesh has always
been extremely li.initcd. Silt deposited by the annual floods
has kept the land fertile despite extensive cropping for
centuries. But crop production can be enhanced greatly by
application of fertil izers . In recent years, the average
fertilizer dose has been 10 pounds of nutrient per acre --
less than 5% of the recommended level. Proper fertilization
is essential to realize the full potential of HYV rice. As
its use becomes more extensive, Bangladesh's fertilizer
requirements will expand rapidly. The fertilizer program
originally overemphasized the use of urea (nitrogen) to the
exclusion of other fertilizers because of its availability
from domestic production. Since the introduction of HYV rice,
however, a more balanced use of nitrogen, phosphorous, and
potassium has been achieved.
Bangladesh has two urea fertilizer plants, ,-ih.:~.ch use its
abundant natural. gas supplies. A third, financed by the World
Bank, USAID, and others, is expected to increase productive
capacity by about 75% by 1978. At that point the country will
be able to meet its increasing demand for nitrogen fertilizer
without imports. Two phosphate fertilizer plants are presently
idle due to lack of raw materials, but will provide nearly 20%
of consumption when pr.oduc.'?i.on resumes. Potassium fertilizer
requirements will continue to be met by imports. Distributing
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and marketing fertilizer is a greater problem than production.
Transportation from ports and district warehouses is deficient.,
and inadequate credit arrangements inhibit timely sales to
farmers.
Plant protection measures are essential to averting large
crop losses because insects, weeds and crop diseases flourish
in the hot and humid climate. With the introduction of HXV
rice, the returns from protective measures increase signifi-
cantly. In 1.970, only about one-third of the rice acreage
received any pesticides, and most applications were scanty.
Herbicides also are underutilized. Weeds take a heavy toll
in reduced yields. Experiments are now being pursued to make
the newer rice varieties more resistant to disease by cross-
breeding with traditionF.i varieties.
C. Multiple Cronpinq
To continue agricultural expansion beyond the next
several years, new land must be brought under cultivation.
While virtually.all arable land is already cultivated, only
35% is cropped more than once a year. Labor is abundant and
the climate is amenable to year-round plant growth. But
monsoonal floods make expansion of acreage during the summer
season possible only through extensive flood control and
drainage facilities. Such projects are costly and require
long leadtimes.
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The main hope for expanding acreage lies with the dry
season boro crop, which is confined to about 20% of the
suitable acreage for lack of moisture. Groundwater is
abundant but its utilization has i