COMMODITY PRICE TRENDS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010149-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 23, 2006
• Sequence Number: 149
• Publication Date: January 31, 1974
• Content Type: MF

STAT
Approved For Release 2006/09/26 :CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010149-3
 Approved For f g.2 f9/ RD~ T00875R00I900604 f 3
::0=et ru:.: ::r. Sic:::ay ~a?~luwoff
Council on International Econo::is
Policy
Executive Office Building
SUBJECT Cor odity Price Trends
In response to our conversation of 31 January, we
are forwarding the attached table on world co ^odity price
trunds. The taihle includes average annual prices for
selected co:?=odities as well as factors which will affect
prices in 1974. Estimates of 1974 price trends are still
very tentative, thus the table will he updated periodically
as new infor:aation beconos available. Z;c would be happy
to provide additional in`ormation if required.
Attachment:
As stated
Distribution:
Original, & 1
1
1
1
1
(5-5883)
- Addressee
- D/OER
- D/I
- SA/ER
- St/p/c
Approved For Release 2006/09/26 CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010149-3
 Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010149-3
CO!?L'IODITY PRICE TRENDS
Commodity Price Unit
1972
Dec 1973
1973
Bauxite $ per metric
ton
8-12
8-12
8-12
Tin $ per 100 lbs
171
285
217
Copper $ per 100 lbs
49
104
81
Rubber $
per metric
ton
402
1136
6>3
Timber $
per cubic
meter
31
47
56
Wheat $ per bushel
2
5
4
Sugar $ per 100 lbs
9
11
10
Rice $ per 100 lbs
10
30
18
Palm Oil $ per metric
ton
216
486
345
Copra $ per metric
ton
141
421
314
Peanuts $ per metric
ton
260
523
394
Cocoa $ per 100 lbs
32
66
S4
Coffee $ per 100 lbs
51
71
67
Cotton $ per 100 lbs
34
79
56
a/ Change from average 1973 prices.
CIA/OER
31 January 191A
1974x/
up slightly
up sharply
down slightly
down slightly
down sharply
up sharply
firm
up sharply
down slightly
down slightly
up sharply
down sharply
up slightly
up slightly
Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010149-3
h'
 'Commodity Major Exporters . Price Unit
Cotton Turkey $ per 100
Brazil lbs
Egypt
Mexico
United States
[ICSR
Average Prices
197 Appmved aEl l -t l- ese ,6/09 JA-RD 08758001900010149-3
25.10 34.30 34.70 79.30 56.06 65-75 Both supply and demand will inc.rea$
in 1974. Although some farmland
has been shifted from cotton
because of higher prices for other
crops, sharply increased yields
will result in a production increas
for the 1973-74 crop (Aug-July).
Because of fashion's shift to
natural fibers and because of the
shortage and high prices of oetrolem
based man-made fibers, demand will
remain strong. Stock piling may
ease somewhat, although higher
quality cotton is in relatively
short supply.
Bauxite Australia $ per 4.8-12 8-12 8-12 8-12 B-12 10-14
Jamaica metric .
Guinea ton
Guyana -
Surinam
There is no free market price for
bauxite. Most sales are under long
term contracts for which prices hap
not been adjusted in recent years.
A meeting of bauxite producing
countries in February will result
in pressure for higher prices,
greater control over production
facilities, and more processing
within the bauxit:- producing
countries. Because prices are not
market related,. future price
trends are difficult to estimate.
Approved For R 1 axe' 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85TOOZ75R001900010149-3
 Co:c-odit Major Exporters Price Unit
GU2L'lUDiTY PK1Ci TULUDS
Average Prices
Apps yed f r Rase :CIA-R~b0875R001900010149-3
Bolivia 100 lbs
Thailand
Indonesia
Prices for 1974 are expected to.
remain firm. Thailand has had
considerable labor problems in the
tin mines and some gravel pumps
have closed because of fuel short-
ages. Some gravel pumps in Malaysia
may also close. The UK's Williams
Harvey smelter is still down and
no alternate plant'has been able to
.take up the slack. A world wide
economic downturn may ease demand-
in non-canning uses of tin,
particularly automobiles and
housing, but even this will not.
be enough to cause any sizeable
drop in prices particularly because
prices are largely controlled by
the International Tin Council.
Copper Zambia $ per 64.17 48.56 50.72 104.09 81.02 85-110 Supply situation is tiout and no
Chile 100 lbs major production increases are
Canada expected in 1974. A small increase.
'? Zaire in Chilean production and GSA
stockpile releases will keep
prices from soaring even higher.
arices should soften as a result
of worldwide economic downturn
this year and resulting.reduced
demand but they are not expected
to drop below the 1973 average.
An important factor influencing
prices in 1974 will be whether the
US industry can avoid a strike this.
summer. /
Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010149-3
 Average Prices
Corrodity
Major Exporters
Price Unit
1973
1970 Aped
- Re'1' se
Rubber
Malaysia
Indonesia
Thailand
$ per ton
462.5 402.1
506.3 1135.6
-
Remarks
kb/09A.61. iq1A-RDP85TOO875ROO1900010149-3
683.0 660-700 Prices will ease considerably from
current high levels during 1974 but
will still be substantially above
prices in recent years. Demand
will ease-because of downturn in
automobile and road building equip-
ment industries. This will be
balanced by tight supply of
.5
Timber
(Hard
i wood)
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
$ per "?
cubic ?.
meter
(Japanese
import
prices)
31.86
30.81
33.44
47.00
56.25
46
Wheat
United
States
Canada
Australia
Argentina
$ per
bushel
1.48
1.84
2.71
5.32
3.58
5-7
synthetic rubber because of feed-
stock shortages.
Easing of demand because of down-
turn in housing construction in
Europe, US, and Japan will bring
tir~er prices down in 1974. Sub-
stantial increases in Indonesian
production will ensure an abundant
supply.
Prices probably will continue to
increase at least until the new
crop comes in at mid-year. Austral
ian crop is lower than anticipated
and very little will be available
to cover any US shortfall. Canada
withheld its crop from the market
in late 1973 and since then has
refused to negotiate its high
prices. US is attempting to delay
or?stagger deliveries, and wheat
prices will reflect the success of
this attempt.'
Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010149-3
 CorTodity Major Exporters Price Unit
Rice Th
Burma ailand $ per ---
Unite 100
Egypt
are not quoting prices, however, ar!
are negotiating on individual basis
to take advantage of nigh prices.
Because of the continued uncertain-
ty, prices have remained high.
World stocks are extremely low and
demand will remain strong as stocks
are rebuilt. Prices are unlikely to
drop significantly, especially in
view of tight supplies of other
grains.
Palm Malaysia $ per 256? 216 214 486 345 275-350 Predictions of oilseed prices for
Oil Indonesia metric' coming year are very tentative. A
ton meeting of major oilseed producers
in Rome scheduled for mid-February
will clarify supply situation which
for the moment is extremely uncer-
tain. Prices of palm oil have been
unusually strong because of a
drought in Malaysia, but drought
is now over and production will
recover. Prices will decline with
improved world supply of all oil-
seeds.
Copra Philippines $ per 204 141
Sri Lanka metric
Papua New ton
Guinea
Indonesia
174 421 314 275-325 Demand will remain strong through
(Nov) 1974. Supplies will hit a low in
March but are expected to recover
by the third quarter when the new
crop will be harvested. Prices are
likely to fall as world supplies of
oil seeds in general increase.
Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85TOO875ROO1900010149-3
Average Prices
1973 Remarks
197oApp ed Rek4se 2 $/O91 .RDP85TOO875ROO1900O10149-3
8.60 9.75 12.80 22.85 18.11 24-29 Rice prices in 1974 were expected
~__i_.._ i.. .... .... 25% from the
current peak level, because the
ref ently
i
rta
t Thai cro
mpo
n
p
 Average Prices
1973 Remarks
Apl 972 ed rar R eC se 2'117
(7M/091 4 E 1A-RDP85T00875ROO1900010149-3
Sudan
Nigeria
Brazil
.tiger
United States
Ghana
$ per
...34.17
32.26
37.14
65.69
64.38
50-55
Nigeria
Brazil
100 lbs.
Coffee
Brazil
$ per
53.94
50.74
57.31
71.47
66.56
70-75
Colubnbia
Ivory Coast
100 lbs
prices may occur in response to
increased supplies of feed and
other oil seeds which serve as
substitutes. The price slippage
will be moderated however, because
African producers have embargoed
peanut exports with a view toward
increasing production and sales of
peanut products. Moreover, because
of drought, Nigeria had a severe
crop shortfall, and normal product-
ion levels are unlikely for several
years. World peanut stocks remain
relatively low.
Average prices should decline some
20% in 1974. Demand will taper off
both because of currently high
prices and reduced grindings due
to energy shortages. World pro-
duction will increase by at least
6% this year.
Brazilian crop suffered considerabb
frost damage last year resulting in
soaring prices. Production will
recover this year but probably not
enough to meet demand. The new
crop harvested between April and
June, will stabilize prices some-
what but is unlikely to cause any
significant drop in prices.
Approved For Release 2006/09/26 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001900010149-3
 Average Prices _
Coriodity
Major Exporters
Price- U:
1973
1970 Aped ft r Ruse 6/09! ~
Su