NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010116-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 15, 2006
• Sequence Number: 116
• Publication Date: December 22, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE 0
Thursday 22 December 1977 CG NIDC 77/296C
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Thursday, 22 December 1977
25X1
The NID Cable is for t e,purpose of informing
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
PORTUGAL: Elections Loom Nearer Page 1
COLOMBIA: Military Disturbed Page 3
USSR:
Neutron Bomb Campaign
Page 4
USSR:
Foreign Ministry Changes
Page 6
POLAND:
Wyszynski Statement
Page 7
AUSTRALIA-USSR: Port Call Page 8
CHILE:
Referendum on UN Action
Page 9
BRIEFS
Page 10
USSR-Angola
East Germany
Australia
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//Talks between Portugal's Socialists and Cen-
ter Democrats have stalled, and the prospect of an early elec-
tion Zooms larger. President Eanes will reportedly decide to-
morrow, after the political parties have presented their final
positions, whether to name a prime minister or to call for an
election. Eanes has told the parties that there will be an
early election if they do not reach an understanding that as-
sures majority support for the government in the legislature.
He has ruled out a minority coalition of Social Democrats and
Center Democrats, a Socialist government relying on Communist
support, and a nonpartisan government of technical experts.//
//In order to reach the necessary agreement,
either the Socialists will have to indicate a willingness to
share power with one or both of the democratic opposition par-
ties, or the latter will have to give the Socialists support
without receiving anything substantial in return. Events of
the last two months indicate that none of the parties is likely
to give enough ground to produce a mutually satisfactory solu-
tion.//
1//Last weekend the Socialists effectively
aborted a tentative agreement to govern with the Center Demo-
crats, the most conservative of Portugal's major parties, by
introducing new demands. Their change of position may have
been triggered partly by a fear that an arrangement with the
Center Democrats would alienate the Socialists' restless left
wing and open the party to a Communist attack on its leftist
credentials.//
/The Center Democrats would find it impossible
to sell an accommodation with the Socialists to their rank and
file without receiving major concessions in return. Their lead-
ers, citing the national interest above narrow party concerns
and feeling pressure from backers in business and industry, had
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offered to join the Socialists in implementing stringent eco-
nomic policies with or without the Social Democrats, their ri-
vals for Portugal's conservative voters. The Socialists' last-
minute pullout leaves the Center Democrats emptyhanded and em-
barrassed.//
I /Even when the possibility of a Socialist -
Center Democratic arrangement was hanging over them, the Social
Democrats did not budge from their position that a direct role
in government was their price for cooperation. If the Social-
ists do not yield, the Social Democrats are apparently content
to remain in opposition until an election is held. Some observ-
ers believe the Social Democrats would gain and the Socialists
lose if an election were held today.//
//It is not clear whether Eanes would prefer to
see the results of a new election before taking a stronger hand
in bringing the parties to heel.
I /Relief in the form of a major disbursement 25X1
from the $750-million multilateral aid package has been held
up as lenders wait for Portugal to work out an economic stabil-
ization package acceptable to the International Monetary Fund.
Negotiations with the Fund cannot be concluded until a new gov-
ernment is established and the 1978 budget passed.//
/An election in the near future could bring
about some changes in the parliamentary balance even if it
turns out that voters' preferences have not changed signifi-
cantly since the 1976 election. If, for instance, the Center
Democrats accept a Social Democratic invitation to form an
electoral alliance in some districts, the two parties could in-
crease their legislative representation without an increase in 25X1
their combined share of the total vote over what it was in 1976.
This could lead to a majority for the right in the national as-
sembly, throwing the Socialists into opposition.
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COLOMBIA: Military Disturbed
The Zeaders of Colombia's military services are
nearing the point where they may be willing to restore order
unilaterally unless President Lopez takes immediate action
against the increasing number of kidnappings and other crimes
in the country. Military Zeaders presented Lopez with a six-
point declaration on Monday that called for the government to
take immediate action, regardless of how forceful it had to be,
to guarantee the rights of citizens.
The declaration, which is the most serious challenge
Lopez has faced from the armed forces, implied that if the gov-
ernment proves unwilling or incapable of preserving peace, the
armed forces will. Shortly after the meeting between Lopez and
the high command, soldiers armed with machineguns began patrol-
ling the streets of Bogota.
The forceful action by the military leadership is a
result of several developments. The military is upset over re-
cent retirements of several senior officers on Lopez' orders.
More important, businessmen--who have been targets of the kid-
nappings--and other concerned civilian groups have begun to ap-
ply pressure on the armed forces to restore order to the nation.
A total of 59 people have been kidnapped this year; a new spate
of kidnappings occurred last weekend.
Lopez may believe the armed forces have overstepped
politically acceptable bounds by their action. The US Embassy
in Bogota believes it is conceivable that Lopez will react im-
pulsively to the military's declaration and threaten to resign
or actually hand over power to the military. Lopez has gone
into seclusion, reportedly to map out plans for attacking the
problem; this is a tactic he frequently uses when under pres-
sure. It could mean that he is more likely to compromise with
the military than to capitulate to it.
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USSR: Neutron Bomb Campaign
Recent Soviet statements against the "neutron bomb" -
appear designed to prevent US deployment of the weapon in West-
ern Europe. The Soviets are also trying to play up divisiveness
within NATO on the subject and to divert attention from the
human rights issue at the Belgrade review conference on Euro-
pean security and cooperation. If nothing else, the Soviets
are at least trying to shift Western public attention away
from current Soviet measures such as deployment of the SS-20
IRBM and from the Soviet military threat in Europe generally.
The campaign is being conducted at nearly the same
high intensity as the Soviets' first campaign against the neu-
tron weapon last summer. The most notable aspect of the current
effort has been the strongly worded approaches made by Soviet
leaders to top West European political figures.
These diplomatic initiatives appear designed to drive
a wedge between the US and its NATO allies. At the same time,
Soviet public comments are obviously playing upon adverse re-
action to the weapon in Western Europe. The Soviets may be-
lieve that even if they are unable to influence the US deci-
sion on production of the weapon, they can at least agitate to
stop its deployment in Western Europe.
Aside from propaganda, Georgiy Arbatov, one of Mos-
cow's top US-watchers, told US Ambassador Toon earlier this
year that there is sincere concern in responsible Soviet cir-
cles that the weapon could lower the nuclear threshold in Eu-
rope. The Soviets may believe that any lowering of the nuclear
threshold would reduce the political advantages they hope to
derive from their superiority in tanks and infantry in Europe.
I he Soviet commentary suggests that Moscow is unwill-
ing to discuss the neutron weapon at the Mutual and Balanced
Force Reduction.: talks, as this could require a Soviet trade-off.
Soviet MBFR representative Tarasov recently criticized those in
the West who thought they might use cruise missiles and "neu-
tron bombs" as trump cards in the MBFR negotiations. Soviet
media statements also appear designed to head off an West
German effort to add this weapon to the MBFR agenda. 25X1
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USSR: Foreign Ministry Changes
The USSR is about to name two new first deputies
to Foreign Minister Gromyko in order to fiZZ the vacancy Zeft
by Vasiliy Kuznetsov's recent appointment as First Deputy
Chairman of the Supreme Soviet Presidium. The two, Georgiy
Korniyenko and Viktor MaZtsev, are to serve as co-equals
Korniyenko has
headed the Ministry's USA Department or more than a decade
and is experienced in disarmament negotiations. MaZtsev, a
protege of President and party chief Brezhnev, is currently
Ambassador to India.
Although Korniyenko would probably give up the USA
Department, his appointment underscores the importance attached
by the Soviets to relations with the US. Korniyenko, unlike
Kuznetsov, holds no national party rank and is unlikely to at-
tain any until the next party congress, due around 1981.
Maltsev is not a career diplomat; he entered the for-
eign service after a career in railroad administration and
party work in Irkutsk. As Ambassador to Finland in the early
1970s, he headed the Soviet delegation to the preparatory meet-
ing for the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe
and was involved in preparations for the SALT talks in Helsinki.
//Korniyenko's promotion ends speculation that
Deputy Minister Igor Zemskov would become a first deputy. Ear-
lier this year, Zemskov had been particularly critical of the
US for allegedly trying to undermine Soviet authority at home
through subversive activities and manipulation of the human
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rights issue.// Korniyenkos views toward the US appear to be
far more moderate. The new appointments may also affect Ambas-
sador to the US Dobrynin's reported plans. to return to Moscow
as a Deputy Foreign Minister.
POLAND: Wyszynski Statement
tefan Cardinal Wyszynski has released to the Polish
e ergy t, e text of an address he made in Rome last month defend-
ing the recent warming of Church-state relations in Poland as
necessary to preserve domestic stability. The release of the
text is intended to answer questions raised by the faithful,
especially lay intellectuals, in the wake of Wyszynski's meet-
ing with party leader Gierek in late October and the obvious
support given Gierek by Pope Paul when the two met on Z Decem-
ber.
I uIn the address, Wyszynski said that the Church has
no love for the secular authorities in Poland but that at times
the Church must use its moral. authority to calm passions that
otherwise could rage unchecked and damage the nation. He said
that "small revolutions," such as the disturbances that erupted
throughout Poland in June 1976 over regime attempts to raise
food prices, must be avoided.
yszynski is aware that a breakdown of internal order
would raise the danger of Soviet military intervention. The
speech is perhaps the clearest, most direct public statement
of the Church's role as preserver of the peace in Poland. It
represents a further step in the Church's efforts to be recog-
nized as a legitimate participant in governing the country.
]In a second part of the address, Wyszynski presented
an "alternative vision" of Poland, the vision of a country that
had become the breadbasket of Europe. He criticized the forced
pace of industrialization, saying that this has cost more than
it has been worth and has disrupted and corrupted the society.
The future, he said, should be dedicated to exploiting Poland's
natural advantages in agriculture.
The Cardinal's "alternative vision" could indirectly
a ect current discussions over Poland's economic problems.
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Party leaders will not give up their ideological commitment to
industrialization, but the pace at which it is being pursued
has been the subject of debate.
Those Poles who have criticized the country's head-
long and often wasteful rush to industrialization may now be
able to argue that "public sentiment" demands a different
course. The long lines in front of meat stores and shortages
of food and consumer goods are powerful arguments that a
change of tack is needed.
/A Soviet request for a port call in Australia
a navy oceanographic research vessel and an accompanying
submarine has sparked a sharp debate within the basically anti-
Soviet government of Prime Minister Fraser. The government has
been wrestling with the issue since the Soviet diplomatic note
was delivered a month ago. Foreign affairs officials are in-
clined to recommend permission, but defense officials are
strongly opposed.//
//The submarine would be the first Soviet warship
to visit Australia. Two Soviet naval research ships made port
calls during the Labor Party administration between 1972 and
1975.//
/Defense officials are worried that a precedent
would be set by allowing the submarine into an Australian port.
They also believe that any hospitality shown to the Soviets
would undercut Australia's opposition to New Zealand's current
discussions with the Soviets about access to onshore fishing
facilities in New Zealand. The defense department and the mili-
tary services may also believe that permission for a port call
would weaken Australian objections to Soviet maritime activi-
ties in the South Pacific and the Indian Ocean.//
//The Australian Foreign Ministry, on the other
he view that it would be difficult from a legal
standpoint to deny the Soviet request unless there are persua-
sive security arguments against it. Canberra so far has stalled
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by asking Moscow for details about the ships and the purpose of
their proposed visit. Soviet failure to respond has given the
Australians some hope that Moscow will not press the matter.//
/The matter will probably required a decision by
the Australian cabinet. This will not happen soon, as many sen-
ior officials are away from the capital on extended summer
holidays.
CHILE: Referendum on UN Action
Chilean President Pinochet said in a broadcast ad-
dress Last night that he would submit to a national referendum
the recent UN General Assembly resolution condemning his mili-
tary government for human rights violations.
The announcement of such an extraordinary step, fol-
lowing passage of the UN resolution last Friday, is the latest
sign of Pinochet's irritation over continued foreign criticism
of Chile's human rights performance. The Chileans have also
made strong diplomatic representations to the US over its joint
sponsorship of the resolution.
Pinochet believes his critics have ignored the sub-
stantial progress Chile has achieved in releasing some 4,000
political prisoners--dramatically reducing the number of re-
ports of illegal detentions, torture, and disappearances--and
in dissolving the country's dreaded secret police.
I Because the government retains the support of a ma-
jority of the population, it most likely will win such a ref-
erendum. The date of the voting, the first to be held in Chile
since the overthrow of the Allende governor nt in September
1973, is expected to be announced shortly.
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USSR-Angola
A Soviet delegation headed by First Deputy Defense
Minister Sokolov arrived in Angola yesterday. The visit follows
recent higher level contacts between Moscow and Luanda. Presi-
dent Neto met with President Brezhnev in Moscow last month, and
Politburo member Kirilenko attended the recent congress of An-
gola's ruling party.
The Angolans are also hosting a senior Cuban delega-
tion that reportedly is to work out details of a recent agree-
ment providing for a ma-ior increase in Cuban economic aid to
East Germany
//East Germany is rumored to be planning to close
Checkpoint Charlie between East and West Berlin from midnight
to 6 a.m. daily beginning on 1 January and to make a change in
the use of identity cards carried by diplomats. The rumors are
unconfirmed, and it is not clear whether the East Germans would
close the checkpoint to Allied diplomats and military person-
nel.//
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/The rumor about the diplomatic identity cards,
has the East Germans elimi-
na-clng use o the cards when diplomats transit between the
two halves of the city, and instead requiring diplomatic pass-
ports with visas valid for East Germany. For the Western Allies,
this could result in another test of the "flash" procedure,
whereby Allied diplomatic passport holders do not hand over
their passports to East German guards.//
I /Either step would be another attempt to probe
the "gray" areas of the Berlin question and to remove some of
the remaining signs of East Berlin's separate status--a status
that irritates the East Germans. The rumors could be a trial
balloon to test Allied resolve. The East Germans may have
chosen the holiday season because it is more difficult then
for the Allies to work out a'coordinated response. F_ I 25X1
]//William Hayden has been elected head of Austra-
lia's Labor Party, which suffered a crushing defeat in the Aus-
tralian parliamentary election on 10 December. Hayden, who is
44, served previously in the government as treasurer when for-
mer party leader Gough Whitlam was Prime Minister. He won the
top party post by eight votes over Lionel Bowen, who also held
a cabinet-level position in the Whitlam government. The party's
rapid decision on a replacement for Whitlam indicates a deter-
mination to rebuild organizationally following the electoral
debacle. Hayden has been the party's principal spokesman on
and architect of economic policies. 25X1
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