VALIDITY STUDY ON NIE 11-6-56 CAPABILITIES AND TRENDS OF SOVIET SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY PUBLISHED 9 OCTOBER 1956

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82M00097R000600020030-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 6, 2006
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: August 19, 1959
• Content Type: NOTES

Approved For Relwe 2006/01/17 :` QI 2M00097R0"00020030-1
USIB-D-16. 2/20
19 August 1959
Validity Study of NIE 11- 6 - 5 ~
Capabilities and Trends of Soviet Science and Technology
Published 9 October 1956
The attached validity study of NIE 11-6 -56 was noted by the
Intelligence Board on 18 August 1959 (USIB-M-53, item 5b)o
Executive Secretary
Approved For Release 2006/01/17 ~KRET
DPR
2M00097R000600020030-1
 Approved For Rel@6e 2006/01/17 i CW 2M00097R0W 1 00020030-1
USIB-D-16. 2/20
19 August 1959"'
Validity Study of NIE 11 -6- - 5
Capabilities and Trends of Soviet Science and Technology
Published 9 October 1956
1. We believe that the main judgments of this estimate, insofar
as subsequent evidence has appeared, have proved to be valid. This
applies particularly to judgments about the importance attached to
science and technology in Soviet policy, financial support, increase
in scientific and technical manpower, and Soviet progress in the
fundamental sciences. Our estimates of Soviet military research
and development also proved generally sound, notably with regard
to (earth satellites, missiles, ground weapons, and electronics.
However, Soviet aeronautical research and development capabilities
now appear to have been overestimated.
2. On the subject of organization, planning, and control of Soviets:
science, while the estimate did note the emphasis on the need for
"closer relationships between scientific research and indihs'trial
application, " it did not predict the major reorganization of Soviet
research which accompanied the economic reorganization of 1957.
Similarly, in the discussion of Soviet educational institutions, there
was no forecast of the educational reforms proposed by Khrushchev
in September 1958. It should be remarked, however, that these
are specific developments of a kind which intelligence does not
expect to predict, and failure to do so in no way affected the validity
of the main estimates in this paper.
Approved For Release 2006/01/17 : CIA-RDP82M00097R000600020030-1
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