CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A026900010036-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 7, 2006
• Sequence Number: 36
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
NR
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
ARMY and DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
19 November 1974
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 19, 1974
CONTENTS
MIDDLE EAST: Little military activity observed. (Page 1)
ISRAEL: Anti-Israeli demonstrations on the West Bank
cont nue. (Page 2)
ITALY: Internal Christian Democratic Party differences
hamper efforts to end country's political stalemate.
(Page 5)
HUNGARY: Foreign trade minister visits US this week.
P age 8)
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 19, 1974
Little military activity was observed in the Mid-
dle East yesterday. Israeli aircraft conducted several
reconnaissance flights along the UN buffer zone with
Egypt, but no Israeli air activity was noted over Leba-
non or along the buffer zone with Syria.
The Israeli reserve callup of the last few days
apparently is more extensive than originally believed.
The mobilization that began on Friday was initially re-
ported to have applied only to the northern commando
According to the US defense attache ,in Tel Aviv, reserv-
ists assigned to the southern command--which is respon-
sible for defense of the Sinai--also have been recalled
to active duty. The Israelis have admitted to mobiliz-
ing only about 10,000 reservists.
US army intelligence has reported that at least
one Israeli officer training in the US was alerted by the
Israeli embassy on Saturday to be prepared for immediate
recall home to participate in future military operations.
On the Egyptian side, there was no unusual military
activity that would indicate hostile intent. US officials
in Cairo have reported that the situation seems to be
calming down and that there were no signs of a heightened
Egyptian military alert yesterday.
Egyptian aircraft flew several reconnaissance
missions, but no incidents were reported.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 19, 1974
ISRAEL
Israeli police yesterday quickly broke up the latest
in a series of anti-Israeli disturbances in the West Bank
that followed PLO leader Arafat's appearance before the
UN General Assembly last week. The disturbances occurred
in East Jerusalem, in a Palestinian refugee camp north of
the city, and in several West Bank towns. Defense Min-
ister Peres had warned local Arab leaders on Sunday that,
if they failed to maintain order, Israeli military author-
ities would crack down "unrestrainedly?"
Most of the demonstrators have been Arab high school
students who have set up roadblocks and hurled rocks and
insults at Israelis. An Arab teenage girl died from in-
juries suffered during a skirmish with Israeli police
attempting to break up one such demonstration. Govern-
ment authorities have imposed a curfew on some West Bank
towns and closed some of the schools.
In the months ahead, Tel Aviv is likely to find it-
self confronted with increasing anti-Israeli sentiment
in the West Bank and Gaza. Recent soundings by the US
consul general in Jerusalem indicate that West Bank
Palestinian nationalist feelings were given a strong
boost by Arafat's speech to the General Assembly. Wide-
spread resentment of Israel's occupation was further re-
inforced by the economic austerity measures Tel Aviv
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 19, 1974
The outcome of yesterday's meeting of the Christian
Democratic Party directorate illustrates the extent to
which internal differences in the party are hampering
efforts to end Italy's six-week-old political stalemate.
The directorate dodged the issue of whether to endorse
Prime Minister - designate Moro's proposal for an all -
Christian Democratic caretaker government. Instead, the
party leaders' changed Moro's negotiating mandate; he is
now to seek a two-party coalition between the Christian
Democrats and the small Republican Party.
The main reason for the controversy was the refusal
this weekend of the Social Democratic Party to support
Moro's proposal. The Social Democrats maintain that
since Moro's government would rely on Socialist support,
it would be "too open" to the Communists. The only way
out, according to the Social Democrats, is through a
new parliamentary election, an alternative the other
governing parties oppose.
Moro has been trying to put the Communist issue on
ice temporarily and to work out a compromise on economic
policy acceptable to most other parties. He was near
such an accord last week, and the Socialists and Repub-
licans had offered parliamentary support for his pro-
posed all - Christian Democratic cabinet. The Social
Democrats, whose few parliamentary votes would not have
been required for a majority, could have then been
dropped from the government.
The Christian Democratic leadership, however, di-
vided sharply on the question of Social Democratic par-
ticipation. In the end, Moro--who leads the Christian
Democratic left--could not muster enough support in the
center and right-wing factions of his party to go ahead
without the Social Democrats. The Christian Democratic
right, in particular, fears that the exclusion of the
Social Democrats would give a leftist complexion to a
Christian Democratic government and open the party to
attack from the right.
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National Intelligence Bulletin November 19, 1974
By instructing Moro to try for a two-party coali-
tion with the Republicans, the Christian Democrats have
avoided a decision that would have split them down the
middle, but they have only postponed the question of
the next government's political coloration.
The Christian Democrats and Republicans together
do not have a majority. If the Republicans agree to
cooperate--a decision they may make today--the two par-
ties will still have to get Socialist support in order
to win a vote of confidence. The Christian Democrats
evidently hope the Social Democrats will reconsider and
support a Moro-led government.
The Christian Democrats' indecision strengthens the
likelihood that Italy is in for a protracted period of
weak government by a caretaker administration. It casts
additional doubt on that party's ability to reverse the
recent slide in its fortunes.
Scattered local elections over the weekend showed
substantial Christian Democratic losses and notable
gains for the Communists and Socialists. Although these
contests have only marginal significance for national
election patterns, the left will portray the results as
further evidence of Christian Democratic decline.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
November 19, 1974
Budapest hopes Foreign Trade Minister Biro's visit
to the US this week will provide a closer reading of
prospects for receiving most-favored-nation status and
lay the groundwork for subsequent bilateral economic re-
lations.
in addition, Biro has a shopping list that includes
requests for Export-Import Bank credits, more offices in
the US, and a joint US-Hungarian trade commission. Buda-
pest is particularly interested in a timetable for Export-
Import Bank credits. The Hungarians recently asked West
German Economics Minister Friderichs for a $3.5-billion
loan to help finance imports from 1976 to 1980. Biro
might make a similar, but smaller, request of the US.
US-Hungarian trade is at an all-time high, reaching
about $100 million during the first nine months of this
year, compared with about $50 million in 1973. Hungary
may achieve its first annual trade surplus with the US
in more than a decade, in large part because of Hungarian
sales in the US market of $35 million in gold coins.
Imports from the US continue to be predominantly agri-
cultural--soybeans, hides, and farm machinery.
In its trade with the West as a whole, Hungary in-
curred a $400-million deficit during the first six
months of this year, mainly as the result of higher
prices for Western chemicals, oil, sugar, and cotton.
During the same period, the prices of Hungarian imports
from the West went up by more than 40 percent from a
year earlier, while export prices rose by only 25 per-
cent.
The Hungarians have responded by expanding coal pro-
duction, restricting the use of oil products for indus-
trial and consumer use, and raising the domestic prices
of fuels. They have also moved to liberalize selectively
their economic relations with the West by permitting the
first equity ventures in Hungary and by allowing Western
firms to open offices there.
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