LETTER TO ADMIRAL STANSFIELD TURNER FROM WILLIAM PROXMIRE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP81M00980R001100030003-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 5, 2005
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: March 15, 1978
• Content Type: LETTER

JOHN L. MCCLEU.AN. ARK., CHAIRMAN
WARREN e'S MAONUSON, WAS". MILTON R. YOUNG. N. DAK.
,.70NH CrREMN191 MISSTI ~~M~CLhF~R . ~~S.h'.J_.'...?... 2005/12/7A CI RDP81 EAAA~O0R001100030003 A
WILLIAM PROXMIRE, WIS. MARK 0. HATFIELD, DREG.
DANIEL K. INOUYE, HAWAII TED STEVENS. ALASKA
ERNEST F. HOLLINGS, S.C. CHARLES MCC. MATHIAS, JR.. MO.
BIRCH BAY", IND. RICHARD S. SCHWEIKER, PA,
LMON OKLA.
THOMAS F EAGLETON MO HENRY BEI
lUnif eb zf of ez Zonate al'. I :?
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LAWTON CHILES. FLA. LOWELL P. WEICKER, JR., CONN. COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS
J. BENNETT JOHNSTON, LA.
WALTER D. HUDONSTON. . KY. WASHINGTON. D.C. 20510 gUENTIN N. BUR[SICK N. DAK,
PATRICK J. LEAHY.VT.
JAMES F. BASSER, TENN.
DENNIS D4 CONCINI. ARIZ,
JAMES R. CALLOWAY
CHIEF COUNSEL AMC STAFF DIRECTOR
March 15, 1978
Admiral Stansfield Turner
Director of Central Intelligence
Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, D.C. 20505
Dear Admiral Turner:
'my service with this and other committees has made me increasingly
aware of the influence of Iran on the Amrican economy, and on defense
planning and foreign policy. Our recent discussion reminded me sharply
that the govern nt of Iran is a one-'man regime, thoroughly controlled
and directed by the Shah.
I am therefore interested in what would happen if the Shah should
die or be killed suddenly. Experts outside the goverment have given
me their views on this subject and I request your assessment of it as
well. Please include in your reply responses to these questions:
(1) The loyalty of government and military officials in Iran appears
to be directly and personally to the Shah, rather than to a system of
government or to each other: How much of this loyalty might be
transferred to a successor regime, such as the regency by the Queen
provided in the present. formal succession arrangements?
(2) The Shah's present ruling methods appear to perpetuate and
exploit constant rivalry among his subordinates. Can they be. expected
to offer unified support to a successor regime or is a long period of
squabbling and disorganization,. likely?
(3) Who are the likely contenders for power if the Shah dies suddenly?
The military has been a stabilizing force during transition periods in
some other developing countries. For reasons of culture and history, the
Iranian military apparently has a relatively low status and Iranians prefer
other national models of modernization and efficiency. Is it therefore
likely that, in addition to struggles by and among military officers for
power and influence in the course of succession, there will also be further
destabilizing contests between civilian elite groups and military officers?
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 Approved For Release 2005/12/24: CIA-RDP81 M00980R001100030003-4
Admiral Stansfield Turner
Page 2
March 15, 1978
(4) Does the present pervasive control exercised by the Shah over
all aspects of Iranian public life and expression make it likely that
there will be among politically active and aware Iranians a powerful
urge to release repressed actions and feelings, and a strong reaction
against continuing his system of rule?
I realize that an examination of the consequences of the Shah's
retirement or lingering death could also be important and interesting.
However, I prefer now to concentrate entirely on the situation which
would be likely to follow his sudden death from accident, disease, or
assassination, since this would be most likely to produce the most
severe crisis and present us with the mast difficult decisions.
Best wishes.
WP:jwg
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Approved For Release 2005/12/24: CIA-RDP81 M00980R001100030003-4
UNCLASSiFIE? -l-- CONFIDENTIAL -~ - SECRET
Approved For Release 2005/12/24: CIA-RDP81M0098OR001100030003-4