COLOMBIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: IMPACT ON US NARCOTICS POLICY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP83B00231R000200110001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 14, 2007
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 1, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

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Colombian Presidential Election:
Impact on US Narcotics Policy
~MAST~R FILE COPY
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Secret
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Gl82-10107
May 1982 ~'"'y
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IIngellfi~ence
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Information available as oj'13 May 1982
has been used in the preparation o1'this report.
This memorandum was prepared by
international Security Issues Division, Office
of Global Issues. Comments and queries are
welcome and may be directed to the Chief Strate is
1Varcotics Branch, OGI
u
Secret
CI 82-10107
May 1982
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FC?9?~b~a~~a l~re~~de~~g~- II+;Il~~~Il?~no
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~a~~un~rry The election of a new Colombian president on 30 lay 192 will have
serious consequences for US narcotics policies. President Turbay, for the
most part, has cooperated with US drug control efforts; his successor will
be generally less responsive to US interests and will probably distance
himself from Turbay's pro-US stance. This will impede US efforts to
persuade the Colombian Government to undertake effective eradication
and interdiction programs at a time when Colombian drug production and
trafficking are increasing.
~eeP~t
GI 82-10107
lbfay 1982
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IBi~cl~gQ?au~~ Colombia is a major cultivator and exporter of marijuana, supplying
almost 80 percent of the US market; it also serves as a conduit for 50 to 60
percent of the cocaine entering the United States each year. This enormous
illegal narcotics trade has created numerous economic, social, and political
problems for Colombian authorities. Large-scale marijuana and cocaine
trafficking has fueled Colombia's extensive illicit economy, generated a
new elite of drug barons, and contributed to a significant rise in crime, cor-
ruption, and violence
Economic dependence on narcotics trafficking is spreading:
In the north coast departments, many segments of the population earn
part or all of their livelihood from smuggling and trafficking.
In the Rio ~Iaupes area of southeastern Colombia, coca boomtowns such
as Mitu and Miraflores are flourishing because of increased coca
cultivation and trafficking activity.`
In the Gulf of Uraba region, some farmers are replacing less profitable
crops with marijuana-a trend which could eventually reduc 1 1 food
supplies and increase Colombia's food import demand. 25
Another corollary of drug trafficking is corruption, which, among its
deleterious effects, undermines government narcotics control programs.
The large sums involved in drug transacti
low-level government employees. In fact,
one reason for the withdrawal of the Colom ian arme orces rom
narcotics enforce e corrupting effect such duty had on
military personnel. 25
Trafficking money also supports the campaigns of local politicians. In the
more active trafficking centers, some elected officials undoubtedly won
their offices with the help of traffickers. The actual extent of narcotics-
related political corruption within Colombia is open to conjecture, but most
US intelligence analysts agree that such corru tion is more pervasive and
influential than current reporting indicates 25
Narcotics trafficking also poses a threat to Colombia's internal security. At
one time drug smugglin was the rovince of the rofessional smuggler or
ambitious amateur, but members of 25
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Colombian insurgent/terrorist groups-1~-19 and the Revolutionary
Armed Forces of Colombia-are actively engaged in trafficking. The
prospect of a linkage with insurgents and terrorists is of serious concern to
Colombian authorities. Drug dealing could provide such groups with large
amounts of cash for their operations. Their establishment of trafficking
networks for narcotics also would improve their capability to import
weapons, ammunition, and other supplies. 1Vloreover, it could lay the
groundwork for future insurgent/terrorist activit throu h the corru tion
of local police and security forces.
'll'auQ[m~y The Turbay government has cooperated with the United States in narcotics
A>HnIlQIlll~1~If~l~ll?-Ile matters. In return for financial and technical assistance, the Colombian
I~Q?gre~? '1('?w~v~ Government has mounted interdiction and eradication campaigns, revised
1`l~PC?1~Il~S fC?QllLQ'?)( and strengthened antinarcotics laws, and used the armed forces to assist
National Police enforcement operations
A recently concluded enforcement operation illustrates the effectiveness of
joint US-Colombian efforts against drug trafficking. ?peration Tiburon,
begun in November 1980, was targeted against the north coast marijuana
traffickers and resulted in the arrest of more than 400 traffickers and the
seizure of more than 90 vessels and 770,000 kilograms of marijuana. It in-
cluded personnel from the US Coast Guard, the Customs Service, and the
Drug Enforcement Administration, as well as units of the Colombian
Armed Forces and National Police
Unfortunately, while these actions temporarily disrupted trafficking, they
have not significantly reduced the long-term flow of narcotics northward.
Many of the steps initiated by Turbay under the terms of the November
1980 agreement require an extended commitment on the part of the
Colombian Government. There are signs, however, that Colombia's resolve
may be wavering. As Turbay's term of office has been drawing to a close,
he has shown an increasin reluctance to involve himself in narcotics-
related matters
~y assuming a lameduck role several months before the election, Turbay
has hampered US plans for marijuana and coca eradication. ~Ie is unlikely
to undertake any controversial narcotics enforcement activities or enter
into any bilateral agreements that would hurt the chances of the Liberal
Party candidate for election. Moreover, Colombia is beset by a number of
problems more pressing than narcotics. National attention is focused on the
upcoming election and the candidates' programs for curbing inflation,
strengthening the economy, and maintaining internal order.
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If'??flti~~us gun
I~~re?tflc? ~?nte?Q
A(!onso Lopez Alichelse/I~Liaison
1Veither candidate has a clearly articulated program on narcotics.
A former president (1974-78) and the Liberal Party candidate, Alfonso
Lopez ~/Tichelsen may be reluctant to pursue an aggressive antinarcotics
policy, especially in the north coast departments-the traditional marijua-
na trafficking region of Colombia-where the Liberal Party did exception-
ally well in the March legislative elections. 'To dispel opponents' charges of
collusion and corruption, however, and to appease the United States, Lopez
would probably undertake some token campaigns in Colombia's more
sparsely inhabited growing regions, where he is not politically indebted.
~IJo~aso ILo~ez It~acla~lse~a
Lopez's position on the marijuana legalization issue is unclear-especially
in view of the fact that his campaign manager, Ernesto Samper, is a well-
known advocate of legalization. Samper's views probably do not reflect
Lopez's stand on this controversial matter. Lopez is an astute politician
whose policies generally mirror his perception of the public mood, which is
generally opposed to legalization. He has managed so far to avoid the issue
and probably would not su ort a le islative initiative to legalize
marijuana at this time.
~elisario ~etaeace~a ~'~~~~~s
13elisario Betancur Cuartas, the Conservative Party candidate, is a veteran
of Colombian presidential elections. He barely lost to Z'urbay in 1978, and
most observers concede that his chances for election are better this time.
because of his personal integrity and high moral standards, ~etancur
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would probably support US narcotics policy. He views narcotics trafficking
25X
asas m
orrupting and a threat to Colombian institutions and society.
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25~:
His personal views will nevertheless be tempered by political reality. No
Colombian president will be able to eliminate narcotics trafficking because
drug producing and trafficking are so completely imbedded in Colombian
social, economic, and political realities. Moreover, if elected, he is expected
to pursue a more nationalistic and neutral course than Turbay in foreign
affairs. This would allow him to use the narcotics issue as a bargaining
oint to ain concessions from the United States on other bilateral issues.
C?~ucdauan?~n Neither Lopez nor Betancur is likely to be as cooperative on the drug issue
as Turbay. A win by Lopez probably would seriously set back US narcotics
efforts in Colombia. V~Ihile the extent of his narcotics connections is not
fully known, Lopez probably would be hesitant to undertake eradication
programs in areas of traditional Liberal Party strength. Betancur, on the
other hand, would be more receptive to US overtures on narcotics matters.
Both could be expected to use US interest in controlling narcotics
trafficking as a bargaining chip in future US-Colombian diplomatic
negotiations. This could adversely affect the implementation of US
narcotics policy at a time when dru 1 ' ation and trafficking from
Colombia are increasing
 Secr~e~
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