THE ROLE OF MOROCCO AND SPANISH SAHARA IN THE WORLD PHOSPHATE ROCK MARKET

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001900030179-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 18, 2005
• Sequence Number: 179
• Publication Date: November 6, 1974
• Content Type: MF

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6 November 1974
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. James Righmir.
INR/RNA
DeparLment of State
CIA No. 9326/74
SUBJECT The Role of Morocco and Spanish Sahara
in the World Phosphate Rock Market
1. Attached, in response to your request of
30 October, is an assessment of the role of Morocco and
Spanish Sahara in tht: world phosphate rock market.
2. If we can be of further assistance on this or
any related matter, please
Attachment:
As stated.
Distribution: (S-6581)
Original & 1 - Addressee
N~ 1 - D/OER
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
~
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ATTACHMENT
The Role of Morocco and Spanish Sahara
Cn the War1c lhosliaL?c Rock Market
Conclusions %
Morocco and Spanish Sahara will account for about
27 percent of world production of phosphate rock in 1980,
compared with 17 percent in 1973.
Morocco and Spanish Sahara will supply about one-
half of world exports of phosphate rock in 1980, compared
with about one-third in 1973.
Morocco and Spanish Sahara will supply over 70
percent of Western Europe's imports of phosphate rock in
1980,' compared with 47 percent in 1973.
At current prices, exports of phosphate rock from
Morocco and Spanish Sahara will-be worth $2.2-$2.7 billion
in 1980, compared with $250 million in 1973.
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Current Production
Morocco is the world's third largest producer of
phosphate rock. Production amounted to 15.5 million tons
in 1973, compared with US and Soviet production of 37.4
million tons and 21.3 million tons respectively in that
year. Spanish Sahara produced 696,000 tons in 1973. Pro-
duction of phosphate rock in Morocco and Spanish Sahara
will increase to an estimated 21.5 million tons in 1974,
32 million tons in 1978 and 44 million tons in 1980.. In
the latter year, Morocco and Spanish Sahara will account
for about 27 percent of world production of phosphate rock,
compared with 17 percent in 1973 (see table).
1972
1973
1974
1978
1980
World
89,231
96,760
108,000
151,000
165,000
Morocco
14,468
15,564
19,000
26,000
32,000
Spanish Sahara
1E0
696
3.1500
6,000
12,000
% of Total
.16
.17
.19
.21
.27
SOURCE: Statistical Supplement, British Sulfur Corporation,
June 1974. Data for 1978-1980 from the Phosphate Rock
Export Association, reprinted in Chemical and Engineering
News, 24 June 1974.
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Current Trade
Morocco is the world's largest exporter of phosphate
rock. Exports amounted to 16 million tons in 1973,* or
about one-third of the phosphate rock moving in international
trade in that year. The U.S. and the USSR are the world's
second and third largest exporters of phosphate rock with
shipments of 12.5 million tons and 6.5 million tons re-
spectively in 1973. Spanish Sahara started to export
phosphate rock in 1972 and increased shipments from 73,000
tons in that year to 696,000 tons in 1973. Western Europe,
which, is totally dependent on imported phosphate rock,
purchases about two-thirds of the phosphate rock exported
by Morocco and Spanish Sahara. In 1973, it imported about
22.6 million tons of which 10.6 million tons were supplied
by Morocco and Spanish Sahara.
Reserves
Morocco's proved reserves of phosphate rock with a
I3"I,** content of mere than 70. percent are estimated at 50
billion tons, roughly 400 years supply at the world's
current annual rate of consumption. The major deposits
Morocco reduced inventories of phosphate rock by about
450,000 tons in 1973.
BPL -- the Bone Phosphate of Lime is a measurement of
the quality of the phosphate rock.
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are located near Khourigba and Youssoufia. New deposits of
high grade phosphate rock are located near Ben Guorir and
Sidi Hajjij and are scheduled for exploitation in the late
1970's. Proved reserves of phosphate rock in Spanish
Sahara, located near Fos Bu Craa, are estimated at 1.7
billion tons to 2.0 billion tons. These deposits contain
rock with a BPL content of more than 90 percent and are
considered to be among the richest deposits in the world.
Spanish Sahara's proved reserves probably will increase
substantially as a result of extensive geological prospecting
now underway throughout the country.
Export Prices
As the world's largest exporter of phosphate rock,
Morocco can strongly influence world prices of phosphate
rock and phosphate fertilizer. Other African exporters of
phosphate rock, such as Togo, Senegal and Tunisia have been
following Morocco's lead and have announced that their
future export prices would be based on Morocco's. Since
January 1974, Morocco has increased the price of phosphate
rock from $14 per ton to $63. U.S. exporters followed suit
increasing prices from $15 per ton to $60. Morocco has
announced that its export price will increase by an addi-
tional 19 percent to $75 per ton in January 1975, and other
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exporters almost certainly will follow its lead.
The cost of phosphate rock accounts for about one-third
of the cost of producing phosphoric acid, the principal
ingredient used to make phosphate fertilizer. Phosphate
rock prices have been the major factor in the spiraling
cost of important phosphate fertilizers, such as diammonium
phosphate and triple superphosphate now selling routinely
for $450 per ton, compared with $115-$140 per ton in
January 1974.
Prospects
Morocco is engaged in a major'program to increase the
production of phosphoric acid, as well as phosphate rock.
New phosphoric acid plants, under construction and planned,
will increase Morocco's production of phosphoric acid from
130,000 tons in 1973 to about 1 million tons in 1978 and
2 million tons in 1980 (see table). By the latter year,
about two-thirds of Morocco's production of phosphoric
acid will be earmarked for export.
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New Moroccan Phosphoric Acid Plants
Name
Location
Capacity
(Metric Tons)
Scheduled
Start-up
Maroc-Chimie
Safi
32,000
1975
Maroc-Phosphore
Safi
330,000
1976
Maroc-Phosphore
Safi
165,000
1977
Maroc-Phosphore
Safi
495,000
1978
Maroc-Phosphore
Unknown
990,000
1980
Domestic use of phosphate rock in Morocco will increase
from about 400,000 tons in 1973 to 3 million tons in 1978
and 6 million tons in 1980.* Despite sharply increased
domestic requirements, Morocco's exportable surplus of
phosphate rock probably will increase to 17.5 million tons
in 1974, 22 million tons in 1978 and 26 million tons in 1980.
The exportable surplus of phosphate, rock from Spanish Sahara
will increase to about 1.5 million tons in 1974, 6 million
tons in 1978 and 10 million tons in 1980. Spanish Sahara has
no plans to develop domestic phosphoric acid or phosphate
fertilizer production. Total exports of phosphate rock from
Morocco and Spanish Sahara probably will amount to 36 million
tons in 1980. We estimate that these exports will account
for about one-half of world trade in phosphate rock in 1980,
Three torts of phosphate rock are usually required to
produce one ton of phosphoric acid.
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compared with 32 percent in 1973 (see table). At current
prices, exports of phosphate rock from Morocco and Spanish
Sahara will be worth $2.2 billion-$2.7 billion in 1980,
compared with $250 million in 1973.
World Exports of Phosphate Rock
(thousand metric tons)
World
43,443
48,811
52,400
66,100
74,300
Morocco
13,559
16,014
17,500
22,000
26,000
Spanish Sahara
73
655
1,400
6,000
10,000
Perc,~it of Total
.32
.34
.36
.42
.49
Source: Statistical Supplement, British Sulfur Corporation,
24 June 1974.
Impact on Western Europe
Western Europe, the world's largest importer of phosphate
rock, will become more heavily dependent on Morocco and
Spanish Sahara for supplies of phosphate rock during 1974-1980.
The United States and the USSR currently supply about 30 percent
of Western Europe's requirements, but shipments from the
United States and the USSR are expected to decrease during
1974-1930 as a result of sharply rising domestic consumption.
We estimate that demand for phosphate rock in Western Europe
will increase from 22.6 million tons in 1973 to 33 :,zillion
tons in 1980. Exports from Morocco and Spanish Sahara
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probably will increase from 10.6 million tons in 1973
(47 percent of total imports) to 24 million tons in 1980
(72 percent of total imports). Western Europe's import bill
from Morocco and Spanish Sahara will reach an estimated
$1.8 billion in 1980, compared with $160 million in 1973.
Morocco exported 3.1 million tons of phosphate rock to
Eastern Europe in 1973, or about 20 percent of total Moroccan
exports in that year. Morocco recently concluded trade
agreements with Poland and Hungary calling for total exports
of 9.8 million tons of phosphate rock during 1975-1980.
Morocco will export 1.4 million tons of phosphate rock to
Poland annually during 1975-1980. Poland will ship 530,000
tons of sulfur annually to Morocco in return. Morocco will
increase exports of phosphate rock to 1.8 million tons annually
after 1980. The agreement with Hungary calls for the export
of 230,000 tons of phosphate rock per year during 1975-1980.
No further details are available on this agreement.
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