CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020179-1
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
11
Document Creation Date: 
December 19, 2016
Document Release Date: 
January 22, 2002
Sequence Number: 
179
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
August 10, 1972
Content Type: 
BULL
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PDF icon CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020179-1.pdf391.79 KB
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?..,,> .., ,.. , ...' .. .>. .,. .>. .. ~ .>. ... . .,. .,., .,, A roved fof`RefeaS~ 2 451 - P85T0087 0 0 79-1 ' ; . , ~ i r r t ..? _ {3 ~? lA fR,P{ .~,~ $ (4 (4~ .. >>, a ., .,.. ..r Ll 1. r. i?> r r ftt! ?I ~ J , -I.0 ~ ~"~ L l G ~. t 1 t t, Approved For Release 2005/06/09: CIA-RDP85T00875R0008000Y0"1c9-0 No Foreign Dissem DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Central Intelligence Bulletin State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file 1 C I A DOWMENT Secret SERVICES BRANCH [ALE C OPY N2 548 10 August 1972 AoaeNOleleL1E%TRD3Y CIA-R DP85T00875R000800020179-1 Approved For Release 2005/06/(S P85T00875R000800020179-1 The CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN is produced by the Director of Central Intelligence to meet his responsibilities for providing current intelligence bearing on issues of national security to the President, the National Security Council, and other senior government officials. It is produced i-? : onsultation with the Departments of State and Defense. When, because of the time factor, adequate consultation with the depart- merit of primary concern is not feasible, items or portions thereof are pro- duced by CIA and enclosed in brackets. Interpretations of intelligence information in this publication represent immediate and preliminary views wh.t!h are subject to modification in the light of further information and more complete analysis. Certain intelligence items in this publication may be designated specifically for no further dissemination. Other intelligence items may be disseminated further, but only on a need-to-know basis. WARNING This document contains information affecting the national defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title 18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended. Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re- ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. I-: enl pl pool grlln,l drela..Ili:.Ilion .:Ileiluk of I' (I 1 II.'' . u'nl1'lion ?alcp"ry 11 ;)J: II 11 rl.ir.ilieJ by /'_-(llllll .Ie.ln..llird only nn 'v I`I'r"rnl of Ilie Illrrclnr'~l( enllal Inlelll,rnee Warning: Sensitive Sources and Methods Involved r . ! Y Q .?` M` ye. Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-:f 44 .9 S , I P6EbT0( 37 Approved For Release M 79-1 No. 0191/72 10 August 1972 Central Intelligence Bulletin 25X6 USSR: The leadership is concerned over this year's grain crop. (Page 3) THE NETHERLANDS: A minority government is formed. (Page UGANDA: Tribal unrest in the army threatens the government. (Page 5) IRAQ: Kurdish nationalists believe the truce with tFe-government may break down. (Page 6) 25X1 D BOLIVIA: Compensation for nationalized mine (Page 7) Approved For Release 2005/06/l ' GBlt''P85T00875R000800020179-1 25X6 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020179-1 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020179-1 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020179-1 SECRET USSR: The Central Committee conference on 8 August on the harvest reflects the leadership's concern that this year's grain crop will fail to meet both domestic and foreign requirements. The conference, addressed by Brezhnev, report- edly discussed the progress of the harvest, procure- ment of agricultural products, a speedup in land reclamation work, and the development of the mixed feed industry. Members of the Politburo, party secretariat, and Council of. Ministers, as well as officials of the Central Committee apparatus and editors of central newspapers, attended. Brezhnev's speech was not published. The gathering of such an array of senior offi- cials at the height of the vacation season indicates unusual concern over this year's harvest. It is es- timated to be nine to ten percent less than the har- vests of 1970 and 1971, largely because of Severe winter weather and summer drought. Such a harvest would be a decided setback to Brezhnev's livestock program that is designed to improve the Soviet diet. This program requires a grain harvest substantially higher than in the last two years. Moreover, the requirements of the livestock program are believed to have already drawn down reserve stocks of wheat to the level considered vital as a strategic reserve. As a result of the disappointing harvest pros- pects, the Soviets are buying large amounts of for- eign grain, mainly wheat, for delivery during the next year. Purchases from the US, Canada, and France should enable the Soviets to divert more of their domestic grain to the livestock sector, ful- fill most of their grain export commitments, and guarantee enough wheat of milling quality for their flour industry. (CONFIDENTIAL) 10 Aug 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Vrr Approved For Release 2005/06/01-rN P85T00875R000800020179-1 Approved For Release 2005/06/091W~F`RDP85T00875R000800020179-1 THE NETHERLANDS: The Liberal and three con- fessional parties have agreed to form a minority government under Prime Minister Barend Biesheuvel, but a return to political stability must await the outcome of elections in November. Formateur Biesheuvel managed to organize a four-party government on 8 August, three weeks after the defection of a fifth partner brought down his original majority coalition. The new cabinet will be supported shakily by some 74 of the 150 members of the lower house, but it may be able to count on a few additional votes from right-wing splinter groups. Hard bargaining attended formation of the new coalition. The Liberals reluctantly dropped their call for government intervention by 1 November, failing a voluntary agreement on wage and price restraint. The three religious parties, despite their poor showing in recent polls, acceded to elections in November, rather than early 1973. Between now and the elections, Biesheuvel will attempt to push his 1973 budget through parliament and to reach an agreement cn wage and price policy for next year. His prospects for success are not good. On such issues as control of inflation and defense spending, the national interest is likely to be subordinated to intense maneuvering by all parties for electoral advantage. (CONFIDENTIAL) 10 Aug 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/9..gU- ?P85T00875R000800020179-1 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 SECRMWTO0875R000800020179-1 UGANDA: Growing tribal unrest in the army poses a threat to President Amin Is government. 25X1 C I Ia dispute in the army between Amin 's Ka wa tribe and other tribes from his home district of West Nile has al- ready resulted in several deaths and could easily precipitate large-scale violence. Officers from the disaffected tribes resent the growing dominance in the army of the relatively small Kakwa tribe. They reportedly hope to enlist the support of other tribes in a move against Amin. Since Amin seized power in January 1971, he has more than doubled the number of Kakwa officers and enlisted men, making the tribe the second largest in the army. He also has stationed his fellow tribesmen in key units and installations. Under Amin the traditionally unruly army has become more seriously troubled by tribal, ethnic, and religious rivalries that have caused bloody clashes. Large numbers of experienced officers and non-commissioned officers have been killed or have fled the country, thereby further weakening disci- pline. Amin has exercised little control over the army; his erratic exercise of power has in fact heightened tensions. Nonetheless, as long as Amin retains the sup- port of the key units that were responsible for his successful coup, he probably will be able to hold on to power. These units are made up largely of Amin's fellow tribesmen. However, should they also suffer from tribal unrest or slip from his grasp, Amin would have great difficulty retaining control of the country. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM) 10 Aug 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/09SMR1T00875R000800020179-1 Approved For Release 2005/06/09'F& m- 5T00875R000800020179-1 IRAQ: Kurdish nationalists are concerned that a two-year-old truce with the Baghdad government might break down. A Kurdish nationalist who recently met with rebel leader Mulla Mustapha Barzani has told a US Embassy officer in Tehran that relations between Barzani and Iraqi strongman Saddam Tikriti are be- yond repair. There have been few armed incidents between the regime's forces and the rebels since the peace accord was signed in March 1970, but mutual distrust and plotting have continued unabated. Barzani has spurned Baghdad's attempts to bring the Kurds into a "national coalition," despite repeated Soviet pressures on the Kurdish leader to come to some accommodation with the government.. Barzani's reluctance has been reinforced by two at- tempts on his life by government agents. Barzani, for his part, is actively plotting against the re- gime, but he represents no real threat without sub- stantial foreign support. At the moment, concerted action by either side does not appear imminent. The remoteness of a real political solution, however, is endangering the shaky truce. (CONFIDENTIAL) 10 Aug 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06109E?R- 85T00875R000800020179-1 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 :WT00875R000800020179-1 NOTES 25X1 D BOLIVIA: Continuing its efforts to attract foreign investment, the Banzer government apparently has decided to compensate investors in the Mina Matilde Corporation at a level that they probably will find acceptable. La Paz plans to offer $13.4 million to US Steel and Philipps Brothers for the zinc mine nationalized in 1971 by the previous Torres administration. The US Government has agreed to encourage the investors to accept this proposal before the next negotiating session scheduled for later this month. The payment is to be made in cash, with the US Government helping to arrange financing for $11.4 million. (CONFIDENTIAL NO FOR- EIGN DISSEM) 10 At;tg 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/09SB E 5T00875R000800020179-1 5X1 D L Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020179-1 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020179-1