CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020107-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 2, 2002
• Sequence Number: 107
• Publication Date: May 13, 1972
• Content Type: BULL

Q OS / ': - 89T0087 T 7-0
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No Foreign Dissem
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intellzence Bulletin
State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file
Np 592
13 May 1972
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 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020107-0
OF (BCDet
The CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN is produced by the
Director of Central Intelligence to meet his responsibilities for providing
current intelligence bearing on issues of national security to the President,
the National Security Council, and other senior government officials. It
is produced in consultation with the Departments of State and Defense.
When, because of the time factor, adequate consultation with the depart-
ment of primary concern is not feasible, items or portions thereof are pro-
duced by CIA and enclosed in brackets.
Interpretations of intelligence information in this publication represent
immediate and preliminary views which are subject to modification in the
light of further information and more complete analysis.
Certain intelligence items in this publication may be designated specifically
for no further dissemination. Other intelligence items may be disseminated
further, but only on a need-to-know basis.
WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassificotion
Secret
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J
No. 0115/72
13 May 1972
770
Central Intell
igence bulletin
VIETNAM: Situation report. (Page 1)
ARGENTINA: A World Bank official has forecasted
severe economic deterioration. (Page 4)
COLOMBIA: New confidence in the economy (Page 5)
ECUADOR: Removal of two cabinet officials (Page 5)
URUGUAY: Aid-seeking delegation departs (Page 6)
SOMALIA-CHINA: Siad to Peking and Pyongyang (Page 6)
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 SECRET
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VIETNAM: Communist forces are increasing pres-
sure on government positio;is in several areas of
South Vietnam, with the heaviest action at An Loc.
Fresh artillery and ground assaults have been
launched against the town, and enemy tanks have
breached government defenses in the western and
northern sectors. Heavy rains are preventing the
full use of aircraft in defense of An Loc, and fore-
casts suggest that the bad weather will continue for
the next day or so. Air resupply drops are report-
edly falling wide of their mark, and the heavy Com-
munist antiaircraft fire is keeping helicopter gun-
ships at bay.
In the central highlands, South Vietnamese
Rangers continue to hold Ben Het following a Commu-
nist tank-supported attack. Ranger forces have
cleared much of the area around the camp and have
begun establishing outposts around the base on all
sides.
In the Mekong Delta, field reports indicate
that the Communists have moved an estimated 1,000
troops across the border into Kien Giang Province.
These forces may he from the enemy's Phuoc Long
Front, which is believed to have at least three in-
fantry regiments in this area.
Yesterday, the USSR formally protested the
damage to two Soviet ships--the Pevek and the Grisha
Akopyan--and the injuries to Soviet crewmen result-
ing from recent US bombing raids. The language of
the note, however, was relatively restrained and did
not refer to the Soviet crewman who died. The So-
viets did indicate that the Grisha Akopyan had been
put out of action and reserved the right to demand
compensation for that and for the other damage.
The note has not yet been publicized.
(continued)
13 May 72
Centra; Intelligence Bulletin
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The North Vietnamese claimed on. 10 May that
they had begun minesweeping operations in Haiphong
harbor. In earlier years, they were able to remove
mines from inland waterways, but they are believed
to have only a marginal capability at best to sweep
mimes from the more open waters of Haiphong harbor.
No Soviet or Chinese Communist minesweepers are in
the immediate area, but the Chinese have about ten
within one dal's sailing time. The Chinese have
another 76 minesweepers assigned to the Pacific area.
President Thien's bid for emergency decree pow-
ers from the National Assembly apparently faces a
difficult future. An Quang Buddhist-dominated oppo-
sition blocs in both houses of the assembly have
publicly denounced the measure, charging that it was
a move toward "dictatorship" and that Thieu was try-
ing to equate political opposition with opposition
to the nation. The legislators claimed the Presi-
dent already had adequate powers to deal with the
current situation, including his recent martial law
decree.
The Lower House has scheduled a special session
for 14 May to consider the emergency powers bill.
Passage is virtually assured, but some deputies are
predicting a stormy session because emotions are
running high. The measure seems to be in danger in
the Senate, however, since there are signs that some
independents may join the opposition.
Although Thieu seems likely to get eventual
legislative approval for his request, the latest
developments represent a serious blow to his effort
to create at least the appearance of national unity.
A progovernment senator remarked to US Embassy of-
ficers that what Thieu really needs now is a gesture
of support from the assembly, and not a hitter legis-
lative struggle. Moreover, prospects for the An
Quang Buddhists being brc,-ight into the government--
a move Thieu reportedly, was considering---now seem
remote.
(continued)
13 May 72
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ESoviet diplomats in various capitals have pri-
vately been very critical of the President's actions
in Vietnam, but they have expressed a personal view
that the summit talks will. nevertheless take place.
Although Politburo member Shelepin has postponed a
scheduled trip to Norway, there is no sign that
other members of the Politburo who are normally based
outside Moscow are converging on the capital. De-
fe'ase Minister Grechko and the heads of the Soviet
navy and air force are continuing their trip in
the Middle East, and Politburo member Voronov is
still in Poland.
Accorcling to press reports, North Vietnamese
Politburo member Le Duc Tho told a news conference
on 12 May that "we cannot accept" President Nixon'::
proposals of 8 May because they fail to deal with
the question of a political settlement in South Vi.Et-
nam. "President Nixon has spoken of a cease-fire
and ignores the political aspects c. the problem,"
Tho said. Although Tho's remarks were less polem-
ical than Hanoi's other recent output, he made it
clear that in the wake of the President's speech,
Hanoi persists in its demands for both political
and m..litary concessions from the US. (SECRET NO
FORE1 N DISSEM)
13 May 72
Cenral Intelligence Bulletin
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ARGENTINA: A World Bank official who has just
finished a study on Argentina concluded that the
economy is entering a "crazy period" in which severe
economic deterioration is almost inevitable.
Fa.e with the necessity of maintaining social
order and mollifying powerful special interest groups
until elections are held in March 1973, the Lanusse
government has a.Aowed its already mild austerity
program to be seriously eroded. As a result, the
International Monetary Fund has postponed considera-
tion ~:)f much-needed credits. The World Bank repre-
sentative feels that the nation may be headed for
"hyperinflation" in which prices are changed daily
and the capital market Is eliminated. He also be-
lie?ies that foreign reserves, now estimated at $250
million compered with $770 million at the end of
1970, will continue to decline at the rate of about
$50 million a, month.
U-6 Embassy officials are "Less pessimistic and
believe that it still is possible to reverse present
trends. They agree, however, that inflation--now
estimated to be approaching 60 percent annually--is
increasing rapidly and that a payments default may
become necessary. (CONFIDENTIAL)
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COLOMBIA: The unexpectedly strong showing of
the two traditional parties in last month's local
elections has improved economic prospects. Both
foreign and domestic businessmen currently are ex-
pressing new confidence in the economy and invest-
ment activity is likely to increase significantly.
Some foreign investment may still be postponed, how-
ever, until Bogota completes action in July on the
Andean Foreign Investment Code. Arrangements are
nearing completion for a $60 million loan from the
World Bank and two $40 million loans from private
consortiums headed by New York banks. The funds
will be used primarily to finance imports of cap-
ital goods and public investment projects, but some
of the funds will help refinance private short-term
borrowing. (CONFIDENTIAL)
ECUADOR: President Rodriguez' removal of two
.leftist cabinet ministers on 11 May may increase
the disenchantment among younger military officers
and in the navy in general, the most leftist of the
armed services. If the president surmounts the im-
mediate problem, however, he could emerge in firmer
control of his government. Both ex-government min-
ister Valdivieso and ex-production minister Proan
hold rad:'.cal views and had tended to act without
consulting either the rest of the cabinet or the
president. Their popularity among the young offi-
cers and Valdivieso's naval support, however, had
caused Rodriguez to hesitate to move against them.
(SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
(continued)
13 May 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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URUGUAY: A high-level economic team leaves
Montev.i-deo today to discuss the country's serious
economic problems with government officials and in-
ternational financial institutions in the US and
Western Europe. Largely becau;e of last year's
sharp drop in foreign exchange reserves, the govern-
ment is seekinq ne-,, Loans and refinancing of large
foreign debt payments due this year. The government
has devalued the peso by more than 40 percent in the
past three months, but the still seriously.over-
valued currency is exacerbating the country's trade
problems. Meanwhile, the cost of living could dou-
ble in a year at the current rate of inflation, and
labor unrest is growing because of the government's
refusal to allow new wage increases for the rest of
1972. (CONFIDENTIAL)
SOMALIA-CHINA: President Siad left yesterday
for a two-week trip 'to Peking and Pyongyang. He
probably will discuss economic assistance with the
Chinese, who have significantly increased their pres-
ence in Somalia during the Past year. Chinese tech-
nicians are surveying a 650-mile road construction
project, part of a $109 million aid pact concluded
last year. Peking also has recently agreed to con-
struct a hospital and a sports complex. Siad may
also hope that the visit serves as a demonstration
of Somali independence to the Soviet Union, Mogadi-
scio's principal benefactor. There have been indi-
cations that the Somalis are becoming somewhat
restive with their close association with Moscow.
(SECRET)
13 May 72
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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