CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010099-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 13, 2001
• Sequence Number: 99
• Publication Date: December 24, 1971
• Content Type: BULL

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No Foreign Darem
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
central In tellience
13
ulletin
State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file
:.ret
N2 594
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Secret
CI NTIIAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN is produced by the
Director of Central Intelligence to meet his responsibilities for providing
current intelligence hearing on issues of national security to the President,
the National Security Council, and other senior government officials. It
is uroduced in consultation with the Dclirrtments of State and Defense.
When, because of the time factor, adequate consultation with the depart-
ment of primary concern is not feasible, items or portions thereof are pro-
duced by CIA and enclosed in brackets.
Interpretations of intelligence information in this publication represent
immediate and prelimina.t?t views which are. subject to modification in the
light of further information and more complete analysis.
Certain intelligence items in th;s publication may be designated specifically
for no further dissei.'iinat;on. Other intelligence items may be disseminated
further, but only on a need-to-know basis.
WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United State:., within the meaning of Title
13, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
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No. 0307/71
24 December 1971
Central Intelligence bulletin
LAOS: North Vietnamese preparing drive against
defenses around Long Tieng. (PagE 1)
INDIA-PAKISTAN: Biharis in Dacca face grim prospects.
(Page 2T
CUBA: Castro's speech on seizure of two Panamanian-
flag ships. (Page 4)
CUPA-USSR: F :'esident Dorticos' visit (Page 5)
OMAN: Prime minister expected to resign (Page 5)
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LAOS: PLAINE DES JARRES AREA
0 Government-held location
QCorimunist-held location
A Highpoint
Phou Pha Sail,
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A ICD
KhouangviIle -r-
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LAOS: The North Viet.'?amese appear to be taking
advantage of bad weather, which is hampering air
strikes and reconnaissance, to move their forces
into position for a drive against the defenses around
Long Tieng.
US pilots reported heavy enemy movement south-
ward aqross the Plaine on 22 December, and it ap-
pears clear that the irregular positions near Ban
Na and Tha Tam Bleung are to be among the North Viet-
namese targets. The Communists may also be displac-
ing forward the 130-mm. field guns that they used to
hit the irregular fire support bases on the Plaine.
Irregular troops, meanwhile, are continuing to
filter back into friendly lines near Long Tieng where
they are being resupplied and reorganized. One group
of 500 men withdrawing from the Phou Seu area re-
ported clashing with North Vietnamese units east of
Ban Na, but no details are yet available.
Incomplete casualty figures indicate that ir-
regular units had at least 80 killed and 470 wounded
during the recent fighting on the Plaine. Some
1,000-1,200 men are still missing, and many of them
are believed to be either killed or captured. In
addition, all of the irregulars' heavy weapons--ten
155-mm. and nine 105--mm. howitzers--have been lost,
as well as five armored cars,.five trucks, and mis-
cellaneous other heavy equipment. North Vietnamese
casualties are estimated at 400 to 600 killed and
over 1,000 wounded. (SECRET)
24 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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INDIA-PAKISTAN: The Bibaris.in Dacca appear
to be facing increasingly grim prospects.
The US Consul General reports that about 100,000
Biharis--non-Bengali East Pakistanis who generally
supported ]Islamabad--are living in a state of terror
om the outskirts of Dacca.- Despite efforts by the
Indian Army and the Mukti Bahini,. anarchy reigns in
the area with criminal elements looting, killing and
torturing freely. The food situation for the Biharis
has become critical and the Consul General believes
that many face death by starvation or violence unless
international pressure is brought to bear on the
problem.. The senior Indian commander in Dacca ap-
parently does*not yet realize the gravity of the
situation. The new Bangla Desh government so far
apparently has made no effort to alleviate the prob-
lem.
Information on the status of Biharis elsewhere
is fragmentary. According to the press, foreign
travelers report.that massacres in. outlying areas
are beginning to taper off.*
The US Embassy iii Islamabad reports that Presi-
dent Bhutto has already set the. stage for an attempt
to reshape Pakistan's domestic and foreign policies.
There are signs that he intends to build a highly
personal, somewhat authoritarian regime, and he.ap-
pears to be in complete control, in-part because of
the demoralization of the. previous leadership. So-
cial reform, redistribution of wealth and populist
assaults on the establishment apparently will be
major aspects of his domestic strategy.
CBhutto has indicated he is not bound by the
inflexible East Pakistan policy of his predecessors.
According to the press, Bangla Desh President Mujibur
Rahman--for nine months a prisoner of the Yahya gov-
ernment--has been taken to Rawalpindi for talks with
the new Pakistani president. 2
(continued)
24 Dec 71 Central Intelligence BwYetin
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The Embassy believes that Bhutto is going to
chart a new course in relations with India. His
insistence that East Pakistan is still part of the
countr is for domestic consumption 25X6
X6 he seems to accept that Bangl. es is os .
SECRET)
24 Dec 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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S SET
CUBA: Castro has asserted publicly that Cuba's
seizure of the two Panamanian-flag ships stemmed
from concern that a new wave of exile operations
against Cuba was imminent.
In a lengthy speech on 22 December, reminiscent
of some of Castro's most strident anti-US perform-
ances of the past, the Cuban leader railed against
what he termed US culpability in 12 years of "pirate
attacks" against Cuba. He reiterated that Cuba would
do what was necessary to defend itself against such
activities, which long have been a source of genuine
concern to the regime. He also implied strongly that
if such "defensive" measures were to result in a
violent incident involving the US, "it would be in-
cidental, accidental, and imperialism would be re-
sponsible."
Castro's show of anger probably was calculated
primarily to shore up flagging domestic support and
to arouse foreign sympathy for his regime. He has
often used this tactic with considerable effective-
ness in the past, For similar purposes, Havana can
be expected to play up any allegations of US com-
plicity that are made by the crews of the captured
ships before they are released by the Cubans.
In commenting on the fate of US citizen Jose
Villa Diaz, captain of the Johnny Express, Castro
said that he would be placed "at the disposal of
Cuban authorities" to answer for his "numerous
illegal acts" against Cuba. He went on to indicate,
however, that any leniency shown toward Villa would
stem from such factors as the attitudes shown by
Villa's relatives still in Cuba, a comment that
suggests that the regime may be prepared to show
clemency.
The Panamanian Government has accepted a Cuban
proposal to go to Havana to discuss the ship sei-
zures. A three-man delegation departed for Cuba
yesterday afternoon.] (CONFIDENTIAL)
24 Dec 71 Central Ir elligence Bulletin 4
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NOTES
25X6
CUBA-USSR: The arrival i,.i Moscow of President
Osvaldo Dort ci as on 21 December may be related to
the annual Cuban-Soviet trade talks now under way
in Moscow. Dorticos' trip follows visits to Cuba
by high-level Soviet economic delegations in April.
and September of this year. Several other Cuban
economic officials are accompanying the Cuban pres-
ident, who is also minister of economy and director
of the Cuban economic planning board. Negotiations
may be more difficult than before because of unusual
Soviet dissatisfaction with the state of the Cuban
economy. (CONFIDENTIAL)
OMAN: Prime Minister Tariq is expected to
resign soon, perhaps during a three-week leave of
absence to begin next week. Sultan Qabus, who
deposed his father as ruler of Oman in July 1970,
has been attempting to limit the cabinet's impor-
tance. The Sultan's goal is to centralize power
in the palace, while Prime Minister Tariq wishes
to turn the sultanate into a constitutional mon-
archy.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X6
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