NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A031000170001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 7, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 26, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

Director of
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National Intelligence Daily
Friday
26 January 1979
State Dept. review completed
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COPY J 44
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Overnight Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
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(The items in the Overnight Reports section have not
been coordinated within the intelligence community.
They are prepared overnight by the office of Current
Operations with analyst comment where possible from
the production offices of NFAC.)
Syria-Iraq
A Western press report from Damascus states that
President Assad's meeting this week with Iraqi President
Bakr has been delayed, because Bakr is ill. Arab diplo-
matic sources are quoted in the report as saying that
the meeting probably will be held early next week, and
that de facto political chief Saddam Husayn will go to
Damascus if Bakr is unable to go. The political com-
mittee that Bakr and Assad both chair reportedly will
attempt to draft the constitutional basis for a union
between Syria and Iraq.
COMMENT: We suspect that in fact the two sides
have not yet been able to agree on such tough issues
as the distribution of water from the Euphrates and
party and military cooperation.
--continued
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China
The New China News Agency reported yesterday that
Politburo member Ulanhu (Ulanfu) had announced a "re-
cent" policy decision of the party's Central Committee
regarding the country's "bourgeoisie." Among other
things, members of the "bourgeoisie" will be able to
recover bank deposits and real estate confiscated
during the Cultural Revolution; will generally have
their salaries restored along with back pay; and will
no longer have their children discriminated against
in party, education, and employment matters.
COMMENT: This move is designed to bolster the
modernization campaign by enlisting those Chinese with
industrial and commercial expertise; it is also in-
tended to reassure the people on Taiwan, many of whom
fall into the category of "bourgeoisie," and those
Chinese abroad who may have doubts returning to the
mainland.
International Oil
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The US Embassy in Paris reports that the secretar-
iat of the 19-member International Energy Agency has
concluded that the Iranian oil shortfall is manageable
for the first quarter of this year, but that IEA members
should view the situation as serious for the rest of the
year because of the many uncertainties that exist. Re-
ports by the member-states revealed no critical oil
shortages at present, although Sweden emphasized its
problems are compounded by unexplained delays in Soviet
oil deliveries. Only Japan, West Germany, and the US
were described as having taken specific steps in reac-
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China-Portugal
A West German diplomat in Beijing (Peking) has told
the US Liaison office that China sought to define Macao
as Chinese territory in recent negotiations with Portu-
gal on establishing diplomatic relations. According to
British officials, Portugal refused after the UK lodged
a protest in Lisbon. The Chinese Foreign Ministry's
officer in charge of Portuguese affairs has told a second
West German diplomat that Sino-Portuguese relations "will
come."
COMMENT: Press reports this month have indicated
that the establishment of Sino-Portuguese relations may
be imminent. Portugal is now the only member of NATO
not to have normalized relations with China.
Cuba-Angola-Mozambique
According to the US Interests Section in Havana,
Cuban Vice President Rodriguez told the French Ambassa-
dor on Tuesday that after Angolan President Neto's
visit ends on 30 January, Havana expects to withdraw
some troops from Angola. Rodriguez told the British
Ambassador, also on Tuesday, that if the South Africans
were to carry out another strike into Angola, Cuban
troops might accompany Angolan forces on a retaliatory
raid into Namibia. The Interests Section concludes that
this contingency would seem to argue against a substan-
tial reduction of Cuban forces in Angola.
In a subsequent telegram, the Interests Section
reports that Rodriguez also told the British Ambassador
that a sharp increase in fighting in Rhodesia is likely
unless a peaceful solution favorable to the Patriotic
Front is found soon. Rodriguez said that Havana now
probably will provide other "supplies" to Patriotic
Front elements being armed and trained by Cuban ad-
visers in Mozambique. According to the Interests
Section, Havana does not yet seem to have decided on
a heightened Cuban presence in Mozambique.
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