NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010116-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 18, 2006
• Sequence Number: 116
• Publication Date: December 11, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
CG NIDC 78-0287C
11 December 1978
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COPY E? i
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IRAN: Demonstrations Peaceful . . . . . . . . . . . 1
NAMIBIA: Implications of Election . . . . . . . . . 2
ANGOLA: Government Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
SOUTH KOREA: Assembly Election. . . . . . . . . . . 6
ISRAEL: Cabinet Reshuffle . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
BRIEFS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 10
China
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The massive, nonviolent demonstration in Tehran
yesterday was an impressive show of strength by the op-
position to the Shah of Iran and an apparent gain for
the opposition moderates. The government's decision to
withdraw Army and police forces from the area of the
demonstration avoided a potentially serious confronta-
tion.
According to most press reports, about 1 million
demonstrators participated in the march; the US Embassy
estimated at least several hundred thousand. Marchers
carried banners calling for an Islamic republic and ex-
tolling exiled Shia leader Ayatollah Khomeini. Well-
organized, peaceful, and orderly demonstrations also,
took place in Shiraz, Esfahan, Tabriz, and Mashhad.
//The withdrawal of troops from southern Tehran was
probably also influenced by the government's desire not
to test the loyalty and cohesion of the Army again.
Zahedi told US officials after the march yesterday that
the government was pleased by the outcome.//
I SAVAK expects
more demonstrations to take p ace today on Ashura, the
holiest day of Moharram. If these demonstrations can
also be kept nonviolent, we expect the moderate opposi-
tion leaders to step up their efforts to negotiate an
end to the current crisis. It remains doubtful, however,
that hardline leaders like Khomeini will accept any
compromise that does not call for an end to the mon-
archy.//
Most shops will remain closed throughout the long
holiday weekend, and it is uncertain whether strikers
throughout the public and private sectors of the economy
will return to their jobs after Ashura. Oil workers at
the important Gachsaran oilfields walked off their jobs
on Saturday, further reducing oil production and avail-
ability for export. Crude oil production was expected
to decline to about 1.4 million to 1.5 million barrels
today, and exports are likely to,fall to about 700,000
barrels, comparable to the lowest levels recorded during
the previous oil strike the first 10 days of November.
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NAMIBIA: Implications of Election
There were no significant disorders during the five-
,Iay polling Zast week for a Namibian constituent assem-
1_,Zy, even though foreign-based leaders of the South-West
Africa People's organization had caZZed for an aZZ-out
effort to disrupt the election. The South African Admin-
:-strator General has announced that 81 percent of the
registered voters went to the poZZs. Whatever the voting
esults, which are expected to be announced next Monday,
he election has already dramatized South Africa's abiZ-
;..tJ to manipulate the Namibian population, which will
:strengthen Prime Minister Botha's hand in dealing with
Following two bomb explosions in Windhoek on 2 De-
cember, South African police arrested some 70 SWAPO dem-
onstrators who were protesting the holding of an elec-
tion without UN participation and detained six principal
leaders of SWAPO's internal wing, which has operated
openly as a nonmilitary organization. The demonstrators
were released, however, and SWAPO supporters held several
public meetings near Windhoek.
on 2 December Pretoria informed the UN Secretary
(;eneral that it will decide by the end of the month
whether or not to accept a UN transitional assistance
(group in Namibia. The South Africans maintain, however,
i.hat'any UN transitional program also must be acceptable
to the Namibian constituent assembly.
Although the newly elected assembly would be unlikely
1:.o welcome a second election under UN supervision, Prime
Minister Botha has ample leverage to manipulate the as-
:;embly.?He very probably wants to go through with a m.odi-
{ied transitional program under UN auspices in order to
avert UN sanctions, mend South Africa's frayed ties with
the West, and gain international support for what he
hopes will be a moderate Namibian government. The South
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Africans believe, however, that a large UN peacekeeping
force in Namibia during a second election would tip the
scale in favor of STIAPO candidates.
The orderliness of the polling last week as well as
the large voter turnout will encourage Botha to insist
on a major reduction in the projected UN military force
of 7,500. He can argue that the absence of significant
disorders last week shows that a large UN force is un-
necessary. Moreover, the large voter turnout may encour-
age Botha to use the constituent assembly as a basis for
proceeding with an internal settlement should the UPI
Security Council reject South Africa's caveats.
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ANGOLA: Government Changes
Angola's major government and party reorganization
announced on Saturday is seen as an effort by President
iVeto to strengthen his control of the government
Prime Minister Lopo do Nascimento and Second Deputy
Prime Minister Carlos Rocha were dismissed from their
posts at the conclusion of an extraordinary meeting of
the Angolan Popular Liberation Movement Labor Party Cen-
tral Committee. Pascoal Luvualu, the party spokesman for
foreign affairs, has been named to fill one of the re-
sultant vacancies on the Politbureau,
The decision to remove the officials and abolish
their posts probably reflects Neto's attempts to consoli-
date his power, further strengthen party unity, and
~;treamline the qovernment. The shakeup also may be par-
tially attributable to continued pressure from militant
black nationalists in the party who believe the mulattoes
have too much control in Angola. Rocha is mulatto; Luvualu
is black.
Nascimento was considered by many to be the second
most important person in Angola, but he lacked an inde-
pendent power base and now appears to have fallen into
disfavor with Neto. According to a recent report, he may
be named to a new but less influential position as Mini-
s;ter of the Presidency. Rocha has strong Marxist-Leninist
(.credentials and had been mentioned as ne of the Soviets'
_avorite candidates to succeed Neto. I
Press reports stating that Neto had himself been
ousted apparently are incorrect. Neto addressed the na-
t-ion yesterday as President. At this point, it does not
appear that the government reorqanization will have a
major impact on Neto's continuing efforts to improve re-
lations with the West.
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:SOUTH KOREA: Assembly Election
//South Korean President Pak wants a strong voter
tandorsement in the National Assembly election set for
tomorrow, and he wants foreign and domestic observers to
{roncZude that the balloting is fair and free from ir-
iraegularities.//
//Pak seems likely to achieve qualified successes
can both counts. His ruling Democratic Republican Party
almost certainly will win more of the contested seats
i.han does the major opposition party.
~He has already been
elected to
another six-year term, which begins late this
r 7onth. He
appoints one-third of the assembly members,
and South
Korea's electoral arrangements encourage a
rough split of the contested seats between the government
and opposition parties.//
//The Democratic Republicans are running on an im-
pressive record of government accomplishments. South Ko-
rea has had the fastest growing economy among the de-
veloping countries in recent years, and its international
prestige has grown considerably as a result of its eco-
nomic competence. The country has regained its composure
following the shocks of Vietnam's fall and the announce-
ment of US troop withdrawals. Pak announced an amnesty
last week that will include some political prisoners and
should boost his popularity.//
//Even so, there are factors working against the
jovernment. Urban, young, and independent voters have
1.raditionally tended to vote against Pak, and their num-
bers have swelled in recent years. Pak's opponents have
been attacking him on a variety of issues: the Tongsun
Park affair, inflation, high taxes, the alleged corrupt
relationship between big business and government, and
1-.he highly restricted character of "Korean democracy."//
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//None of the specific issues raised by Pak's ad-
versaries however, appears to have galvanized popular
opinion in opposition to the government, and by all ac-
counts the opposition remains in a weakened state because
of chronic factionalism and a lack of leadership, or-
ganization, and funds.//
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A plan by Israeli Prime Minister Begin to redistri-
)ute cabinet posts has set off jockeying among members
tf his coalition. Begin appears to be taking advantage
of cabinet vacancies to promote those he believes will
better support his leadership on peace issues and the
Uovernment's domestic programs. He thus far has rejected
demands to increase an already large cabinet and to take
o cabinet seat away from the Democratic Movement, cur-
iently one of his most dependable and vital allies.
Begin reportedly wants to transfer Construction
Minister Gideon Patt, a member of the Liberal faction of
the coalition's dominant Likud bloc, to the industry and
commerce portfolio. Immigrant Absorption Minister David
Levi, a member of the Herut contingent of Likud, Begin's
political base, would replace Patt.
Patt has so far supported Begin's peace proposals
and the economic policies of Finance Minister Simha Ehr-
lich, leader of Likud's Liberals and a Begin confidant.
Levi is a Begin loyalist.
Begin's plan has provoked strong objection from both
the Liberal and Herut factions. Energy Minister Yitzhak
Modai, a prominent Liberal and rival of Ehrlich for con-
trol of the faction, harbors claims to the potentially
more important industry portfolio. Modai, however, has
left some room for compromise, hinting that he might be
willing to take the vacant transportation ministry port-
Leading members of Herut have long complained to
Begin about their faction's lack of influence on economic
issues. Herut activists are unlikely to believe that
Levi--who has shown little ability in his current post--
would provide them with significant influence in economic
decisonmaking if he became construction minister.
Begin's unwillingness to take away one of the Demo-
cratic Movement's three cabinet posts also has aroused
strong opposition from Herut as well as from the National
Religious Party, an important member of Begin's coalition.
Both groups believe that the recent split in the Demo-
cratic Movement, which cut its parliamentary deputies
from 15 to seven, should also be reflected in cabinet
representation.
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Begin's dependence on the Democratic Movement, how-
ever, has steadily increased in recent weeks as his back-
ing among Herut and National Religious Party hawks over
major peace issues has grown less certain, and Begin seems
willing to pay a certain political price to ensure the
Democratic Movement's support. The loss of that support
would cut Begin's parliamentary majority to a few seats,
leaving him dependent upon coalition hardliners and fur-
ther restricting his room to maneuver on major negotia-
tion issues.
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China is expanding. its exploration and development
of geothermal sources of power. Chinese experts have
studied foreign geothermal programs, and the government
is sending students to Italy and New Zealand for long-
-erm training.
The Chinese have many geothermal fields and for sev-
t!ral years have surveyed them to locate and evaluate
hose of greatest potential. They have built small geo-
t..hermal power stations in five provinces since 1970.
Two of these power stations may have advanced binary
luid systems permitting the use of hot underground water
below boiling temperature, a characteristic of many of
china's geothermal fields.
//China's sixth geothermal electric power plant--
and the only one using natural steam--is in Tibet. As
part of an effort to expand and improve this plant so
that it can provide power to the city of Lhasa by Feb-
ruary 1980, the Chinese are planning to import an
11,200-kilowatt generator from the UK at a cost of $20
mi l l ion.//
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