NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030900010104-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 20, 2006
• Sequence Number: 104
• Publication Date: December 4, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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Intelligence
National Intelligence. Daily
(Cable)
State Dept. review completed -Top Secret
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CONTENTS
IRAN: Situation Report . 1
ITALY: Government Troubles . 2
BOLIVIA: Prablems for Padilla. 8
Namibia
Pakistan
Vietnam-Kampuchea
Ghana
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IRAN: Situation Report
Sporadic demonstrations and violence continued in
Tehran this weekend as the Shah's opponents kept up the
pressure on the government. The opposition's strategy
apparently zs to build up pressure gradually on the Shah
toward a climax on Ashura--the holiest day of the Islamic
month of Moharram, u~hieh falls on 11 December this year.
There appears ZittZe chance a political compromise can
be achieved before then. Thus far, there are no reliable
ea
y .figures for the three days of demonstrations.
~
The military is using force to break up demonstra-
tions in the capital. US Embass re orts indicate that
tanks are in the streets.
The demonstrations appear to be relatively well or-
ganized and Embassy sources report that the crowds are
the largest ever seen this early in Moharram. There have
been reports of scattered demonstrations and some vio-
le
~ in Mashhad, Bushehr, Esfahan, and other cities.
~
Exiled Shia leader Ayatollah Khomeini repeated his
call for an end to the monarchy in a message reported
by the French press yesterday. Khomeini called on
soldiers to desert and oil workers to strike. Workers
at Iran's major offshore joint venture--responsible for
production of 425,000 barrels per day, or 7 percent of
recent daily output--resumed their strike on Saturday
in response to Khomeini's call.
The US Embassy has received several unconfirmed re-
ports that junior officers and enlisted men in the Air
Force and Navy believe that the Shah cannot hold on much
longer and will have to leave the country.
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//There are growing signs that Italian Prime Minis-
G-er Andreottirs Christian Democratic minority government
may not survive into the beginning of the new year or
much beyond it. Although there is still no consensus
=among the parties on an acceptable alternative, some So-
t~iaZists and Christian Democrats apparently hope that
G-oppZing Andreotti could pave the way for a new govern-
>rcent in which the Communists, who provide Andreotti par-
liamentary support, .would be Zess infZuentia2. The Com-
rnunist leadership seems inclined to continue backing
Andreotti, but maneuvers by the other parties appear to
~=~e feeding discontent among those Communists who .think
-heir part is aining ZittZe from the present arrange-
ment. //
// some Socialist and
~:hristian Democratic leaders are maneuvering to exploit
..interparty divisions over the government's proposed eco-
~omic plan to cause the collapse of the Andreotti govern-
anent. Plans for re lacing him are still unclear;
the objective is to force a na-
bona a ec ion an t e formation of a government based
on a coalition between the Christian Democrats and So-
cialists, but others say Andreotti's opponents hope to
avoid an election and merely want to replace him and re-
shuffle his cabinet. Some Christian Democrats and So-
;~ialists think Andreotti is too willing to compromise
with the Communists.//
//The Communists would play a critical role in de-
termining the outcome of a governmental collapse. Party
chief Berlinguer is coming under mounting pressure from
within his party to deliver tangible benefits to justify
its support of the Prime Minister. Communist support of
a new government would probably depend on whether. the
~aarty could negotiate an arrangement increasing its in-
fluence in the governing process. Lacking such a guaran-
tee, Berlinguer would be under heavy pressure to point
the party back toward the opposition or to push for a
rzew election--alternatives most parties consider unde-
sirable at this point.//
//The Socialists reportedly plan to launch an at-
tack on Andreotti at the party's central committee meeting
ran 12 December. A'ieanwhile, the parties will be engaged in
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intensive maneuvering, and some hint of the Communists'
posture ma emer e from their central committee meeting
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African representatives at the UN will probably ask
for mandatory sanctions against South Africa today when
the Security Council meets to hear Secretary General
Waldheim's report on his talks with South African For-
eign Minister Botha. The UTd meeting will coincide with
the first day of voting in Namibia. On Saturday, Wald-
heim said Pretoria informed him that South Africa would
not comply with the UN plan for Namibia unless it was
accepted by the election winners, although Botha did
pledge not to grant them sovereignty automatically.
In Namibia over the weekend, South African police
cracked down on the internal wing of the South-West Af-
rica People's Organization, detaining six principal SWAPO
leaders -after two bombings in Windhoek injured 15 persons.
Police also arrested some 30 SWAPO demonstrators protest-
The ~:plit, announced last week in the Pakistan
Muslim League--the largest member of the six-party Pak-
istan National Alliance--could lead to a cabinet reshuf-
fle and further complicate President Zia's efforts to
return Pakistan to civilian rule. Zia has promised a na-
tional election for next October and recently offered to
transfer full power to the Alliance--the only political
group that supports him--"even without elections" if it
could be transformed into a single united party.
The split follows months of bickering within the
Muslim League's leadership. The President of the party
claims the continued support of most members; only one
of the League's five cabinet ministers, however, remained
loyal to him, raising questions about his faction's fu-
ture role in the Pakistan National Alliance and the co-
alition government.
The party president could quit the Alliance and es-
tablish his own opposition coalition for the election
next year. This would reduce the Alliance to a group-
ing of five small parties and a splinter Muslim League
group and would make it difficult for Zia to transfer
any political responsibility to the Alliance before the
election.
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Vietnam-Kampuchea
Radio Hanoi yesterday reported the formation of a
Kampuchean United Front for National Salvation at a con-
ference in a "liberated zone" in Kampuchea. The conference
allegedly elected a 14-member Central Committee headed by
Hen Somrim, a former member of the Kampuchean Communist
Party, and called for a popular uprising against the Pol
Pot. regime.
Syria-Egypt
The Syrian Government has halted all trade with
Egypt, according to the authoritative Syrian newspaper
aZ-Thawra. The newspaper asserted that the trade ban re-
sulted from the resolutions of the Arab summit in Bagh-
dad early last month, but there is no evidence that the
attendees agreed on general trade sanctions against Egypt.
any sanctions were
to be implemented only if Egypt signe a peace treaty
with Israel and after the Arab. foreign ministers met in
Iraq.
Syria's unilateral move may be intended to under-
score President Assad's role in opposing Egypt's poli-
cies; to warn Egypt of the seriousness of Arab opposi-
tion to a unilateral peace treaty with Israel; and to
set an example that other Arab states might follow.
Trade between Egypt and Syria is very small, and no
crucial commodities are involved. Last year, Egypt im-
ported $20 million worth of goods from Syria, only 0.4
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,~~
The one-week-old government of Bolivian General
~~avid PadiZZa may soon face serious political problems
~zs a consequence of its sudden decision to remove former
`'resident Banter as ambassador for engaging in political
rzetivities. If Banter, raho already has been nominated as
=z presidential candidate in the election promised for
Next year, is exiled, conservative military officers u~ho
respect Banter and are upset by PadiZZa's initial moves
~zs President may move against PadiZZa.
Padilla's decision to form an alliance with a group
c_~f junior officers who favor holding an election on 1
=uly 1979 doubtless marks him as a turncoat to his con-
.~ervative colleagues in the Army. The junior officers
row occupy important posts, and Padilla will have to
make substantial concessions to them or find a new base
r,f support.
Padilla has won the support of the major political
~~arties by promising an early election, but he will soon
be under pressure to revise electoral procedures to pre-
vent fraud and to allow campaigning to begin immediately.
The politician most likely to win an open contest is
leftist former President Siles Zuazo, who was the leading
civilian candidate in the vote count in July before that
;election was annulled. Siles Zuazo is regard many
r~-ilitary leaders as a dangerous radical.
Further complicating Padilla's prospects is Banter's
3~.nnouncement that he intends to participate in the poli-
~.ical process. Padilla will have to handle Banter care-
~ully. The former President is widely respected; his
seven-year term as chief executive brought stability and
a considerable measure of economic development to the
country. Banter has wide support among conservative
military officers who would find him a palatable alter-
~iative to Siles Zuazo.
The chief preoccupation of all Bolivian presidents
since independence has been to stay in power, and Padilla
=mill be no exception. Much will depend upon his ability
in the coming months to build a firm base of suppor~
within the armed forces, his primary constituency.
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percent of total Egyptian imports. Egyptian exports to
Syria in 1977 amounted to $2$ million about 1.3 percent
of the country's total exports.
Head of State General Akuffo announced last Thursday
that he has reversed himself and will now allow political
parties to play a role in his plans for a return to ci-
vilian government. He also said he has appointed a repre-
sentative constituent assembly to begin reviewing a pro-
posed new constitution. Akuffo's announcement means that
the beleaguered and increasingly unpopular regime has suc-
cumbed to popular pressure despite its fear of a return
to divisive~icking that has undermined previous gov-
ernments.
His move is a bid to stave off the complete collapse
of public confidence. It may give him some breathing
space to deal with the same mounting problems--labor un-
rest, corruption and mismanagement, inflation, and a
crumbling economy--that led to the overthrow of General
Acheampong in July.
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