CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

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Thursday 21 September 1978 CG NIDC 78/221
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
ANNENNA
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Thursday, 21 September 1978.
CONTENTS
ISRAEL: Reactio
n to Camp David
Page 1
ARAB STATES: Damascus Summit
Page 225X1
LEBANON: Reacti
on to Camp David
Page 2
NAMIBIA: Indepe
ndence
Page 5
IRAN: Terrorist Incidents
Page 6
BRIEFS:
Page 7
25X1 USSR
Ethiopia-USSR
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ISRAEL: Reaction to Camp David
A telephone survey by the Dahaf polling organization
indicates that about 60 percent of the Israeli public approves
abandoning Israel's Sinai settlements as part of a peace agree-
ment with Egypt. Barring a major Israeli-Egyptian dispute over
interpretation, the US Embassy in TeZ Aviv believes an over-
whelming majority of Knesset deputies probably will vote in
favor of the summit accords.
Predictably, the Dahaf poll also shows a dramatic
dump in t e popularity of Prime Minister Begin, Defense Minister
Weisman, and Foreign Minister Dayan. Over 78 percent approved
of Begin's performance, an increase of 15 percent since the
last Dahaf poll in late August. Weizman's popularity rose about
10 percentage points to 82 percent and Dayan's increased over
20 points to 72 percent.
An informal poll earlier this week of about 70 Knesset
deputies showed that two-thirds support the Camp David accords.
The US Embassy estimates that as many as 100 of the 120 Knesset
members will approve the agreements.
The major procedural difficulty in arranging the Knes-
set vote focuses on Begin's intention to hold a separate debate
over removing the Sinai settlements a few days after the vote
on the peace agreements now scheduled for next Monday. Begin
hopes to gain a parliamentary consensus in support of the summit
accords and transfer to the Knesset principal responsibility for
removal of the Sinai settlers, which he finds psychologically
painful to advocate.
Opposition Labor Party chairman Shimon Peres demands
that both questions be debated as a "package deal." Most Labor
Knesset deputies reportedly are inclined to vote in favor of
the accords and evacuation of the settlements if debated as a
package, but they have threatened to boycott a separate session
on the settlements issue. Acting Prime Minister Yadin, who says
that a consensus of opposition and coalition leaders favors
one vote, intends to try to change Begin's mind after he returns
to Israel.
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ARAB STATES: Damascus Summit
The Leaders of Syria, Algeria, Libya, South Yemen,
and the Palestine Liberation organization convened in Damascus
yesterday to coordinate their position on the Camp David agree-
ments. Syrian President Assad appears determined to make his
own decision on Syria's reaction to the agreements.
This is the third summit of the Steadfastness Front,
formed last December to oppose the Egyptian peace initiative.
To date, the Front has been unable to propose a viable alterna-
tive to the Egyptian-Israeli talks, and it is unlikely that much
will emerge from the Damascus summit. Iraq has refused to par-
ticipate because of its feud with Syria.
The Syrian media have been subdued in their reporting
on the steadfastness meeting--an indication that Assad is de-
termined not to let the radical Arabs dictate Syrian reaction
to the Camp David agreements. Assad's willingness to meet with
Secretary Vance on Saturday--the first such meeting since last
December--is a further sign that Assad wants to indicate that
he favors a comprehensive peace agreement.
Nonetheless, Assad probably views the Camp David ac-
cords as a thinly veiled separate peace agreement between Egypt
and Israel. He has always feared that a bilateral arrangement
would permit Israel to remain intransigent on the Palestinian
question and the Golan Heights. The US Embassy in Damascus re-
ports that many Syrians are unhappy that the Camp Davi& accords
failed to mention the Golan Heights issue.
The Syrians, moreover, have to be concerned about
their isolation in the Arab world and are probably apprehen-
sive that Jordan will ultimately join the peace talks, leaving
Syria as the only confrontation state.
LEBANON: Reaction to Camp David
The outcome of the Camp David summit will probably
cause militant Lebanese Christian Leaders to postpone. at Least
temporarily their plans for a massive provocation of Syrian
forces. The summit's results, however, have probably reinforced
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the militants' belief that they can count on Israeli support
for an eventual confrontation with the Syrians and Palestinians.
We have no evidence that Israel is prepared to intervene to
help the Christians.
//Militant Maronite Christian leaders like
Phalangist militia head Bashir Jumayyil and National Liberal
Party chief Camille Shamun will probably conclude that the Is-
raelis do not want "ebianese crisis to jeopardize post - Camp
David negotiations.
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The Maronite militants probably have concluded that
ite current restraints on Israel, the results of Camp David
des
p
will solidify their alliance with Israel. They reason that Is-
rael will be even more concerned about the threat from Syria
and the. Palestinians, and thus be more willing to support the
Maronites in a showdown with their common enemies.
will lead to more violence.
and Muslims fear that reactions to the Camp David agreements
anon because they do not deal with the question of the Pales- 25X1
tinians in Lebanon. The US Embassy reports that both Christians
have described the Camp David accords as "disastrous" for Leb-
Both Phalanaist and National Liberal Party leaders
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NAMIBIA: Independence
In the press conference yesterday during which he an-
nounced his resignation, South African Prime Minister Vorster
also strongly implied that the cabinet has given up hope of
reaching agreement with UN Secretary General Waldheim on a pro-
gram for Namibian independence. He suggested that South Africa
will proceed unilaterally. Vorster's successor, to be selected
next Thursday, will not change the ruling party's basic policy
on separate development of the races.
Vorster gave the press a detailed position paper on
Namibia arguing that South Africa holds to its acceptance of
the Western settlement proposal but that it will not accept
"deviations" stipulated in Waldheim's recommendations for im-
plementing the plan. He singled out Waldheim's recommendations
for a UN peacekeeping force of 7,500 men, for a UN police com-
ponent of 360 men to monitor the South African police, and for
holding a Namibian election seven months after the UN Security
Council decides to go ahead with a settlement program.
the Western plan proposed that the Secretary
In fact
,
General set the size of the UN military force, that the UN civil
staff monitor the South African police, and that a seven-month
preparatory period precede an election. The Western proposal,
however, also set a target date for independence of 31 December,
which would have been consistent with the seven-month interval
if the Security Council had adopted the Western proposal when
.it was accepted by South Africa in April.
Leaders of the South-West Africa People's Organiza-
did not accept the proposal until July, and
however
tion
,
,
Vorster argues that Waldheim's opting for the seven-month pre-
paratory period shows his partiality for SWAPO.
Yesterday, Vorster told the press that the cabinet
a not set a date for a Namibian election but had authorized
the Administrator General for Namibia to do so. According to
a press report, the Administratorr General has announced that
an election will be held from 20 to 24 November.
Such an early election date would be unacceptable to
the UN Security Council because it would not allow time for
other political groups to compete on an even footing with the
group favored by the South Africans. Pretoria's move may be in-
tended to stake out a position for hard bargaining at the UN
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and to reassure South African hardliners that no concessions
will be made until Vorster's successor takes firm command. The
hardliners might countenance a later election date, set by
Vorster's successor, in return for other revisions in Waldheim's
recommendations.
The non-Western members of the Security Council are
unlikely to go along with having a session on Namibia postponed
until after Vorster's successor is chosen. South Africa's uni-
lateral setting of an election date might provoke the non-West-
ern members of the Security Council to back SWAPO's demands for
changes in the settlement plan that would be unacceptable even
to South African moderates.
The parliamentary caucus of the ruling National Party
will choose Vorster's successor on 28 September. None of the
four main contenders would change the party's basic domestic
policies. On foreign affairs, Defense Minister Pieter Botha
follows a hard line; Foreign Minister Roelof Botha is more
flexible. Minister of Plural Affairs Connie Mulder is considered
a conservative in both domestic and foreign affairs. Minister of
Labor S. P. Botha is thought to have middle-of-the-road views.
On the day after it selects the next Prime Minister,
t e par iamentary caucus will fill. the vacant post of State
President, which Vorster has indicated he is willing to accept.
The office is now largely ceremonial. If a proposed new consti-
tution allowing some limited power-sharing with Coloreds and
Asians--but not blacks--is put into effect within the next two
years, as the government hopes, the State Presidency could be-
come a strong executive institution.
IRAN: Terrorist Incidents
The US community in Iran has generally avoided the
widespread civil disturbances that have wracked the country
over the past nine months. In the past few weeks, however,
there have been reports of anti-US incidents in the central
Iranian city of Isfahan, where 12,000 of the 42,000 US nationals
in Iran Zive. For the most part, US residents in that city of
1.2 million are employees of defense contractors and their de-
pendents. None of the incidents thus far has resulted in in-
juries.
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Isfahan, a center of learning for the Muslim Shiite
sect, has been the scene of several anti-Shah riots this year
staged by religious fundamentalists. It was the first city in
Iran to be placed under martial law in August, followed by
11 others earlier this month.
The US community in Isfahan is deeply concerned
about recent firebombings, one against the residence of an
American and the other against a US commercial facility, and a
bomb attack against the US consulate. Neither of Iran's two
major terrorist organizations has claimed credit for these at-
tacks.
A notable increase in harassment of Americans--tele-
phone threats, a stoning of pedestrians, and tire slashings--
suggests that anti-US sentiment in the city, though not yet
widespread, is growing. A few employees of US defense contrac-
tors have asked to go home.
A large-scale exodus of US technicians--though un-
likely at present--would seriously impair the ability of the
military to maintain its sophisticated US weaponry. The recent
spate of anti-US incidents has prompted Iranian authorities
to improve the security of residential areas used by Americans.
BRIEFS
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Soviet President Brezhnev arrived in the Caucasus
yesterday by train from Moscow to award the Order of Lenin to
Baku, capital of the Azerbaydzhan Republic. During the two-day
journey, Brezhnev made a number of well-publicized stops to
meet with local officials, in a manner reminiscent of his
whistle-stop train trip across Siberia and the Soviet ''Far East
in the spring.
Brezhnev is accompanied on this trip by party secretary
Konstantin Chernenko, a longtime protege and the chief executive
officer for the top leadership. Chernenko has been prominent at
Brezhnev's side in recent months. He participated in most of the
meetings Brezhnev held in the Crimea this summer with visiting
East European leaders.
Also accompanying Brezhnev are Andrey Aleksandrov-
Agentov, his senior foreign policy aide, and Valentin Falin,
a former Soviet Ambassador to West Germany who now is deputy
head of the Central Committee's International Information De-
partment. Their presence suggests Brezhnev is planning to in-
clude a major statement on foreign policy in his award speech
Ethiopia-USSR
A Soviet delegation to Ethiopia's anniversary cele-
bration announced the conclusion of an economic and technical
cooperation agreement that calls for formation of a joint com-
mission to broaden economic cooperation between the two coun-
tries. No new aid was mentioned in connection with the, agree-
ment, although Soviet technicians have been studying some $300
million worth of agricultural and irrigation projects under a
protocol concluded last year.
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