CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010054-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 54
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A0308 00010054-0
AMWr -4 "-
ROUTING
TO:
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INITIALS
2
3
4
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPAR
E REPLY
APPROVAL.
DISPATCH
RECOM
MENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
REMARKS:
FROM:
NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO.
DATE
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
Thursday 31 August: 1978 CG NIDC 78Z204
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
AIMIMIM&
State Dept. review
(Securi Classification)
1
Top Secret 25X1 0
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30800010054-0
J
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30800010054-0
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30800010054-0
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010054-0
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Thursday, 31 August 1978
LEBANON: Situation Report
Page 1
MOROCCO-LAGERIA: Relations
NICARAGUA: General Strike Grows
ISRAEL: Possible Suez Oilfield
BRIEFS
Peru
Iceland
Page 4 25X1
Page 5
Page 6
Page 7
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010054-0
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010054-0
LEBANON: Situation Report
The fighting in Beirut between.Syrian troops and
Christian militiamen eased yesterday. In northern Lebanon,
however, feuding between the followers of pro-Syrian former
President Franjiyah and the Phalange continued. A Franjiyah
supporter was apprehended by the Phalange in JubayZ after
trying to assassinate a PhaZangist. Israel is conducting
numerous reconnaissance flights over Lebanon.
The new incident in the north could be used as a
pretext for a Syrian move into Jubayl that would be in keeping
with Syria's strategy of exploiting local incidents to cut
gradually into the Christian heartland. On the other hand,
the Syrians may be content to let the situation in the north
cool for the moment while they consolidate their positions
and avoid providing Israel an excuse to intervene.
In a move perhaps designed to help calm the situa-
tion, the Syrians removed the commander of a unit of the Syrian
"Defense Companies"--an elite force commanded by President
Assad's hotheaded brother Rifaat--that participated in the
Syrian offensive in northern Lebanon last weekend. The officer
was apparently responsible for killing several civilians during
the operation. 25X1
Israeli radio yesterday announced that the Christian
militias in southern Lebanon have worked out an agreement
with the UN allowing additional UN observation posts in the
Christian-held enclave along the Israeli border. While the
Christians may allow the UN greater freedom of movement in
the south, they clearly have no intention of surrendering
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010054-0
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30800010054-0
control of the area to the UN forces. The Israelis may hope
this apparently limited agreement will regularize contacts
between the UN troops and southern Christian militia leader
Major Haddad, and in effect legitimize his presence.
25X1
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30800010054-0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010054-0 25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30800010054-0
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010054-0
MOROCCO-ALGERIA: Relations
The Moroccan Government says Algerian soldiers am-
bushed a Moroccan military unit near Sidi Amara in southern
Morocco on Sunday. Moroccan Foreign Minister Boucetta said the
incident resulted in some casualties and he warned Algeria in
a formal protest that his country would take all necessary
measures to defend itself. Algeria has not yet reacted .`o the
protest.
//We have no information to confirm the incident
,
but a clash could occur in this remote area without our know-
ledge. A raid by Algeria just over the Moroccan border could be
in response to mine-laying and reconnaissance missions by Mo-
roccan irregular patrols in the Tindouf region of Algeria that
have been reported occasionally since early last year. Similar
incidents were reported in an adjacent province of Morocco
early last year.//
The reported ambush occurred near a disputed boundar
y
that Morocco has not yet ratified? Algeria may wish to remind
Morocco that this area could become contentious if no progress
is made toward a settlement of the conflict over Western Sahara.
Recent hardline statements by Moroccan officials about their
conditions for a negotiated settlement of the Western Sahara
dispute may have prompted such a reminder.
Whatever the intent, the incident- will further
h
h
e a mosp
ere for negotiations on Western Sahara. The last
known contacts--held under French auspices in early August--
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010054-0
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30800010054-0
The general strike in Nicaragua continues to be more
effective in the provinces than in the capital, where it never-
theless appears to be slowly gathering momentum. The government
is using firm measures to break the strike and to control violence
and appears confident that it can weather the crisis.
The US Embassy estimated that on Tuesday the commer-
cial shutdown was 50- to 60-percent effective.,A similar two-
week strike in January was 80-percent effective at its height.
Also on Tuesday, the country's largest business organization
voted to support the strike.
President Somoza is attempting to undermine the stoppage
by calling in Central Bank loans to businesses that close. In
addition, the government canceled the charter of the Federation
of Chambers of Commerce after it voted on Sunday to support the
strike. The National Guard is looking for the chief strike organ-
izer, who apparently has gone into hiding.
The most recent focal point of armed resistance to the
government has been Matagalpa, 120 kilometers north of Managua,
where youths have fought guardsmen to a standstill for two days.
At least four persons have been killed. Aircraft fired rockets
at a guerrilla position several miles away.
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30800010054-0
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30800010054-0
The unprecedented use of aircraft indicates that the
government is having a difficult time regaining control of
Matagalpa, but so far this is the only area where the Guard is
being hard-pressed.
The government's military-efforts and its measures to
defeat the strike confirm Somoza's combative mood. His approach
should help mollify those members of the Guard who were displeased
with his capitulation to guerrilla demands last week, but the
soldiers are still under orders not to initiate confrontations.
The President probably believes that, if circumstances worsen,
undiluted Guard support will be more important to his interests
than US concern about violations of human rights. The situation
has not yet reached the point that he must choose.
Press reports from TeZ Aviv indicate Israel has dis-
covered another oilfield in the portion of the Gulf of Suez it
controls. Israel has apparently started exploratory drilling at
the new site, which is north of the existing Alma field. Egypt
has not yet reacted publicly.
If oil in commercial quantities is found, it will be
Israel's second oil discovery in the Gulf of Suez. The Alma
field, discovered last November, is producing 18,000 barrels
per day from three wells, according to the Israeli Ministry of
Energy. Eleven additional development wells are slated during
the next 18 months, which would increase. output to at least
70,000 barrels per day. Israel currently consumes about 140,000
barrels per day, about two-thirds supplied by Iran.
In the past, Egypt has sought US support. in condemn-
ing Israeli exploration and development activities in occupied
Egyptian territory as illegal. AMOCO, an American company, holds
Egyptian concessions for the area in the Gulf of Suez where Is-
raeli oil drilling is taking place. Neptune Oil Company, another
US firm, is drilling for the Israelis.
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30800010054-0
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30800010054-0
The Peruvian Government has extended the limited
state o emergency it declared last week to five additional
provinces because of its failure to resolve a crippling miners'
strike. The strike, which began on 4 August, is costing the
financially troubled country approximately $2.5 million a day
in vital foreign exchange.
Although the. government made conciliatory proposals
last week, negotiations broke down when labor representatives
demanded the reinstatement of 320 fired miners. The 50,000 strik-
ing miners have vowed to continue their strike until all their
demands are met.
Iceland is likely soon to announce a currency deval-
uation--perhaps by as much as 20 percent--to prevent a shutdown
of its vital fishing industry. This new devaluation--the govern-
ment devalued by 13 percent last February--is a further attempt
to curb imports and restore profit margins in the fishing in-
dustry. Unable to cope with an inflation rate of close to 50
percent annually, a number of fish freezing plants have closed
down and others have threatened to do so on 1 September. The
closings could increase the unemployment rate dramatically,
from last month's 0.4 percent to as high as 4.8 percent.
Although devaluation was long resisted by the Com-
munist-dominated People's Alliance, the party has now endorsed
it as part of a package to solve the country's economic ills.
A consensus has yet to be reached on other economic issues,
such as a wage and price policy. Unless a new government is
formed soon and quickly enacts needed austerity measures, the
beneficial effect of the devaluation will be lost.
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30800010054-0
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30800010054-0
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010054- =0