CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

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• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Tuesd,~v 29 August 1978 CG NIDC_78/202
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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Portuguese President Eanes officially appointed
A re o Nobre da Costa Prime Minister yesterday. The cabinet
of independent technocrats will be sworn in today., temporarily
eclipsing party government in Portugal. Outgoing Prime Minis-
ter Mario Snares, whose Socialists have dominated the govern-
ment since 7976, may try to trigger a re~jeetion of the new
government's program to prevent Nobre da Costa. from taking
office. More likely, Snares will consent to a weak, transi-
tional government as preparations for early elections and a
return to party rule continue. President Eanes has higher
hopes for the new government and will attempt to .keep his
.hand-picked Prime Minister in office until scheduled elections
'are .held in 1980.
As Prime Minister, Nobre da Costa's major goal is
o a vance economic recovery while avoiding the kind of crip-
pling party squabbles that led to the collapse of Portugal's
promising Socialist - Center Democratic alliance last month.
His cabinet is accordingly nonpartisan and emphasizes adminis-
trative and technical skills over political experience. The 16-
member team includes seven engineers, three Army officers, two
economists, two university professors, and two lawyers. Socia.l-
st spokesmen-have disparagingly dubbed it a "corporate board
of -directors . "
The Finance Ministry will be in the hands of Silva
opes, e former governor of the Bank of Portugal who is ex-
pected to continue the previous government's anti-inflationary
austerity policies. Firmino Miguel, who continues on as Defense
Minister, is the cabinet's only other figure of national stature.
Overall, the government appears to be center-right,
though Nobre da Costa may have found some balance by giving
reputed leftists the foreign affairs, labor, and social affairs
portfolios. The leftist credentials of Foreign Minister Correia
Gago and the others, however, are suspect.
Whatever the new government's policies, most observers
are etting that its only partly intentional divorce from the
political parties will bring it down within six months.
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//Nobre da Costa's first test will come
when he submits his ro ran for le islative review, as he must
do within 10 days.
Conservative parties are also under strong pressure
to distance themselves from the government so as not to appear
to sanction a non-party government--or to alienate the powerful
So-cialists.
//The Center Democrats are under the strong-
est pressure to support the government. Nobre da Costa has
demonstrated intentions to redress their longstanding grievances
concerning agriculture policies and repay their constituents
for property losses incurred during the revolution. Furthermore,
President Eanes stood by them in their government-rending dis-
pute with the Socialists. Social Democrats, who felt somewhat
excluded in the President's efforts to find new government,
will be more inclined to abstain.//
Eanes clearly wants to see the government last until
~19SV: ~,ven as the country's most popular political figure, how-
ever, there is little he could da to save Nobre da Costa from
a concerted Socialist opposition.
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Tuesday, 29 August 1978.
The NID Cable is or t e purpose o in orming
LEBANON: Fighting Spreads
ZAMBIA: Election Preparations
NICARAGUA: Arrests Confirmed
ARGENTINA-CHILE: Beagle Channel
CHINA: Rejuvenation of S&T System
NAMIBIA: Shipanga's Return
BRIEFS:
Spain
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LEBANON: Fighting Spreads
Fighting resumed between Sz~rian troops and Christian
m2 Zt2amen in Beirut gesterda~, while in northern Lebanon S~r-
ian forces have seized several Christian villages.
Clashes between the Syrians and the Christians
erup e in Beirut late in the day. Both sides used
small arms
.
,
and the Syrians employed tanks and artillery to counter Chris-
tian mortar fire. It is unclear what sparked the fighting, but
it probably resulted from the tension produced by the clashes
in the north over the weekend.
The Phalangist radio reported yesterday that the
yrians were shelling Bsha.rri--a Phalangist mountain
stron
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,
g
hold, but Damascus announced last night that the Syrians had
completed their operations in the north.
We agree with the US Embassy in Beirut that neither
the Syrian nor the Phalangist leadership deliberately sought
the hostili-ties in the north, which grew out of internecine
Christian feuding.
The Syrians have nevertheless taken advantage of the
situation to improve their position in the north cons~_derably,
and this has increased tension throughout the country.. Both
sides have been, expecting the other to provoke a crisis before
the Camp David summit begins.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Butrus traveled tc~ Syria
yesterday to meet with President Assad. Assad probably
wants to prevent the new fighting in Beirut from getting out
of hand because it again risks Israeli intervention on behalf
of the Christians. Most Christian leaders probably want to
avoid a major round of bloodletting in the city, but extremist
Christians may try to aggravate the situation in an effort to
drag in the Israelis.
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f h f' htin in Beirut is not brought under con-
I t e ig g
, however, the Syrians may decide to abandon their
d try for a quick
tactic of shelling, t-hP C'hri ~ti an cruarter an
military victory.
ZAMBIA: Election Preparations
tzao Zambian poZitieaZ figures
ent bz
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//The announcem
end to run for president against President Kaunda
has raised the poZitieaZ temperature 2n Zambia. Although Kaunda
seems almost certain to win reelection, his opponents are seek-
ing to exploit popular discontent over Zambia's economic prob-
Zems and Kaunda's preoccupation with the Rhodesian situation.
These charged poZitieaZ conditions are ZikeZy to persist at
least until after the vote, expected to take place in October.//
e and Harry Nkumbula, as well as an
//Simon Kapwepw
obscure businessman, plan to vie for the ruling United National
Independence Party's nomination for president at a conference
of 6,000 party delegates on 9 September. Under Zambia's one-
party system, only one candidate for president can be presented
to the electorate.//
Zambian voters can
entia election, but Kaunda
"yes" votes. Dissatisfaction
cause a low voter turnout or
vote against Kaunda.
cast negative ballots in the presi-
is likely to gain a majority of
with the government, however, could
an embarrassingly high negative
we and Nkumbula were leaders along with Kaunda
Kapwep
le for independence. Because .each represents
tru
'
gg
s s
in a
one of the country's major tribal groups, their candidacies
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are aggravating tribal divisions within the country. Kaanda,
on the other hand, draws broader national support; his :family
came from outside Zambia, and he is not identified with any
one tribe. Kapwepwe is nevertheless a threat because he repre-
sents the Bemba-speakers, who constitute about 35 perce~zt of
the population.
//Kapwepwe is trying to capitalize on wide:~pread
discontent over the economy by promising to give priority to
economic reconstruction and less attention to "internat:~onal
politics"--a reference to Kaunda's involvement in the R~iodesian
problem. He has also echoed suggestions made by other c~~itics
of Kaunda by stating that he would boost the economy by reopen-
ing the border with Rhodesia and trading with South Afr~:ca
despite disagreeing with the olicies of the overnment:; of
those countries.//
NICARAGUA: Arrests Confirmed
Nicaraguan president Sor,7aza has confirmed the ar-
rests of National Guard officers cznd enlisted men for cc up
plotting, but he apparentZrg remairas confident of his hold on
power. ~'he reports of miZitar~ dissatisfaction mazy nanetheZess
strengthen the belief of some raithin the opposition that- they
have Somoza on the run.
According to the President's son, a major in the
uar a plot involved 12 to 15 officers and 40 to 50 en-
listed men, primarily from the engineer battalion and the Air
Farce. Major Somoza believes the plotters were in contact with
the broad-based anti-Somoza coalition that called the national
strike for this week. The fact that they were not connected
with combat troops justifies to some extent the President's
confidence that his position remains secure.
Somoza told a US official that he had been monitoring
e time the ac-tivities of those arrested. This claim
is supported by earlier reporting and seems credible because
of the President's system of close checks and balances within
the military.
Meanwhile, the fourth day of the opposition's ~~eneral
strike was apparently inconclusive. Most businesses in
Managua were open, but the strike was more effective in the
provinces, where there was scattered violence. in r_1uc3;nrr
several reported deaths.
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ARGENTINA-CHILE: Beagle Channel
Argentina and Chile are still seeking a diplomatic
so7,ution to their longstanding dispute over the Beagle Channel,
despite a temporary breakdown in negotiations earlier this
month. Although hotheads on either side could provoke an inci-
dent, both countries seem to prefer a peaceful resolution of
the issue.
In recent weeks, the Beagle Channel question has re-
ceive increasing public attention, and there has been much
saber-rattling in both capitals. Last week, the Argentine For-
eign Ministry publicly condemned Chile's decision to halt the
talks as violating the spirit of the negotiations." At the
same time, Argentine military leaders announced that they had
discussed security and strategy regarding the dispute. Both
countries have also reinforced military units in the area.
There is, however, no evidence that either side is
eager to initiate hostilities, and there are reports that the
talks may resume soon. The increase in tough talk and provoca-
tive actions nevertheless bring a sense of urgency that could
complicate renewed discussions and even precipitate a military
incident.
CHINA: Rejuvenation of S&T System
China has apparently made considerable progress in
recen~nths in improving its administrative system for science
and technology. Vice Premier Fang I, head of the State Scientific
and Technological Commission, called in March for a "nationwide
scientific and technological research system." Since March,
there has been a flurry of activity to implement Fang's guidance.
Administrative and structural reorganizations intended
to improve the science system have occurred in the Academy of
Sciences and the universities; some of the scholarly societies
.disbanded during the Cultural Revolution have been reactivated.
Personnel in these organizations have been shuffled to give more
authority to professional scientists. Researchers are being
assured that they will not be burdened by political meetings,
that they will direct their own research, and that they will
receive recognition for their work.
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Many scientists in factories, universities, and insti-
u es ave been promoted. Provincial and municipal confa:rences
bringing together scientific and technical personnel to discuss
planning and administration have been held in at least :14 prov-
inces. Two of the country's major newspapers have insti-~.uted
science sections, and lectures on scientific subjects h~~ve been
given to provincial cadre.
NAMIBIA: Shipanga's Return
//The return of nationalist leader Andreas
Shipanga to Namibia Zast Saturday could trigger a reaZi;~nment
of political forces within the territory and could deepen the
split in the leadership of the South-West Africa People's Or-
ganization.//
//A disaffected former SWAPO information minister,
Shipanga had been in Western Europe since he and 10 of _zis fol-
lowers were released from detention in Tanzania in May. In an
effort to establish himself as a middle-of-the-road independent,
Shipanga has formed a new party--the SWAPO Democrats--and hopes
to attract support from both sides of the political spectrum.//
//The biggest question he faces, however,
is whether he can garner backing from his fellow Ovambo tribes-
mPn. who constitute about half of the Namibian population.
/Immediately upon his return, Shipanga called
for the re .ease of SWAPO members now detained in Zambia and
South Africa. He believes most of them will support his cause.
Shipanga asserts that SWAPO is holding 1,800 of its disaffected
members in three camps in Zambia, but SWAPO's exiled leadership
denies the charges.//
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//Shipanga doubtless also hopes to capitalize on
i erences etween SWAPO's internal wing and its exiled lead-
ership. Members of the internal wing appear more committed to
resolving the Namibian problem by peaceful means,.. primarily
because they are well known. locally and in a much better posi-
tion to compete in territory-wide elections.//
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Spain
Three terrorist attacks on policemen in three regions
~
of northern Spain yesterday morning were clearly aimed ~~.t pro-
voking the government, the police, or even the military into
overreacting. The attacks--which occurred almost simultaneously
in Catalonia, the Basque region, and Galicia--left three police-
men dead.
Coordinated terrorist action on this scale is unprece-
dente and could indicate the participation of more than one
terrorist organization. There are persistent rumors that the
leftist group GRAPO cooperated with the Basque Fatherland and
Liberty Organization in the assassination last month of two
military officers in Madrid.
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If these two organizations have joined forces, they
cou. expand the terrorist battlefield from the Basque region
to Madrid and Barcelona. This could cause the military--already
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constitution even more difficult.
Soviet troops on board a train yesterday fired on a
our car carrying personnel from the US Military Liaison Mis-
sion in Potsdam, East Germany. Four of the 10 rounds fired hit
the vehicle but the Mission personnel were not injured. The
incident occurred about 60 kilometers northwest of Berlin. The
Mission has recommended that the Chief of Staff, US Army in
Europe, protest the incident to the Chief of Staff, Group of
Soviet Forces, Germany.
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