NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010122-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2006
• Sequence Number: 122
• Publication Date: July 24, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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Monday 24 July 1978 CG NIDC 78/171
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for 24 July 1978, Monda
25X1
The NID Cable is for the purpose o informing
senior US officials.
LEBANON: Situation Report
EGYPT: President Sadat's Speech
SOUTH KOREA: Security
CHINA: Diplomatic Campaign
OAU: Annual Summit Meeting
NAMIBIA: UN Session to Start
USSR-AFGHANISTAN: Relations
BRIEFS:
Spain
China-Vietnam
Bulgaria
Portugal
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LEBANON: Situation Report
//Fighting broke out again yesterday in
a a , a rzs?san?suburb southeast of Beirut, following a
night of fighting between Syrian peacekeeping forces and right-
wing Christian militias. The Syrians used heavy artillery to
bombard Christian militia outposts. The clashes--the most seri-
ous outbreak of fighting since a cease-fire in Beirut went into
effect two weeks ago--were apparently triggered by the killing
of two Syrian soldiers on Saturday in a sniping incident near
Hadath.//
25X1 IChristian Militia
o icia s in Beirut are circulating the story that Israel will
come to the aid of the militias if heavy fighting breaks out
again. This may be part of an effort by militia leaders to
keep up the morale of the rank and file.//
//The fighting over the weekend did not
spread to the city of Beirut itself. The Syrians apparently
are trying to contain the clashes to the Hadath area. The
situation remains tense, and chances that a cease-fire will be
restored for any length of time appear slim.
I I
EGYPT: President Sadat's Speech
About the only thing made clear by Egyptian President
Sadat in his speech on Saturday is that he is finding it diffi-
cult to devise a policy that will simultaneously silence critics
and protect his democratic credentials. Concern with fostering
a democratic image appears to have won out for the moment. Sadat's
extemporaneous remarks on the peace process at the close of his
speech add up to a challenge to the Israelis to come up with
new proposals or get rid of Prime Minister Begin, and to the US
to act now to break the deadlock.
Sadat defended his devotion to a multiparty system and
announce he would form his own political party, abolish the
government-controlled Arab Socialist Union--an institution
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created by the late President Nasir that has served recently
as an umbrella over Egyptian political parties--and ask for
relaxation of the law governing the formation of new parties.
The speech will probably leave supporters still confused over
his intentions and critics encouraged that he is retreating
from his crackdown. Sadat did not describe his new party's
platform and left unstated what effect the formation would have
on Prime Minister Salim and his ruling centrist party.
L J By describing Egypt's "democratic crisis" as an ethi-
cal rather than a legal problem, Sadat implicitly acknowledged
the thinness of his legal justification for silencing critics.
He called for a form of self-discipline in which all institutions
and organizations would subscribe to a code of ethics that would
govern the behavior of their members. At the same time, he
acknowledged difficulty reaching a national consensus on such
a code and indicated the debate would continue.
I IThe Egyptian President's tentativeness about the new
he was offering was particularly evident in his admis-
sion that the decision to form a new party, which he would head,
was his toughest ever and was made only late last week. Sadat is
scheduled to give another speech on Wednesday at Alexandria Uni-
versity, in which he may further develop some of the themes in-
troduced Saturday. He may also react in Alexandria to the rejec-
tion yesterday by Israel's cabinet of his call for a unilateral
Israeli concession in the Sinai as a goodwill gesture.
I Sadat's attack on Prime Minister Begin in the speech
on a ur ay was his most severe to date. It reflected Sadat's
conclusion that Begin is unable to make peace, and his position
that Egypt and Israel have little to talk about as long as Israel
refuses to accept the principle of withdrawal from the West Bank
and Gaza. 25X1
SOUTH KOREA: Security
//South Korean representatives to the annual
Sout Korean - US Security Consultative Meeting to be held on
Wednesday and Thursday apparently plan to avoid controversial
isoues in the hope of consolidating gains made during last
fear's talks. ?other than emphasizing acquisition of new US
25X1
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weapons, the South Koreans will stress instead the need for
stronger liaison and greater US support for their planning,
logistic, and military production efforts.//
//Military leaders in Seoul have been encouraged
by President Carter's reaffirmation of US security commitments
and by the large-scale joint military exercises held this
spring. They remain concerned, however, about the fulfillment
and timing of US military- assistance.in compensation for the
planned US troop withdrawal, the institution of new joint com-
mand arrangements, and the possible impact of the troop with-
drawals on South Korea's defense posture.//
//In the meeting this week, the South Koreans
will emphasize the importance of the $800 million military com-
pensation package awaiting final approval in the US Congress,
and will push for further reinforcement of US Air Force units
in South Korea by the end of this year. The delegation is also
prepared to ask the US to expedite its wartime logistic sup-
port program and to step up its effort to help South Korea de-
velop a 30-day munitions reserve.//
//In addition to reiterating its request that
compensatory military aid measures be executed in advance of
or in conjunction with US troop withdrawals, South Korea will
ask that the Korean military balance=be jointly reviewed before
each phase of the withdrawal process. South Korean leaders were
pleased with President Carter's decision in April to slow the
pace of the force reduction, but they want the US to agree to
joint consultations before any additional changes are made in
the withdrawal timetable.//
//The South Koreans are anxious to obtain a
written agreement outlining the details of the proposed South
Korean - US combined forces command. They also want the US to
continue to maintain and support. the UN Command and the Military
Armistice Agreement.//
I /Seoul has deleted discussion of coproduction
o the Lance missile and the F-16 fighter from the agenda, but
will ask for additional used US weapons as well as permission
to manufacture and export certain types of conventional arms
and ammunition that are no longer produced by the US.//
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//The South Koreans also plan to raise informally
the question o revising the country's basic defense posture.
Some South Korean military commanders apparently believe that
the current strategy of "Forward Defense"--in which the South
Korean armed forces are committed to stopping a North Korean
offensive at or near the Demilitarized Zone-is no longer ap-
propriate.//
//Seoul's representatives will propose an al-
ternative strategy calling for the multistage withdrawal of
South Korean troops from the Demilitarized Zone in the event of
a North Korean attack. At the moment, we do not know how seri-
ously the South Koreans are committed to revising their defen-
sive strategy, but they may be raising the issue in hopes of
increasing US military aid as US troop withdrawals are carried
out.
CHINA: Diplomatic Campaign
China has embarked on an aggressive diplomatic campaign
in the zddZe East in an effort to counter what it regards
as a resurgence of Soviet influence in the area. The Chinese
are concerned that the USSR will use pro-Soviet regimes in
Ethiopia, South Yemen, and Afghanistan to "surround" the
oil-producing states and the oil routes from the Persian
Gulf. Renewed Soviet influence in the region could seriously
affect China's foreign policy, because. Peking relies on
Western Europe and Japan--both heavily dependent on Middle
Eastern oil--to help contain the USSR.
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Visits in June by Foreign Minister Huang Hua to Turkey
art of this campaign, as is a planned stopover in
are
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ran
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Tehran next month by Premier Hua Kuo-feng on his return from
Romania and Yugoslavia.
I I While it can provide political support, China has
i e military and economic aid to offer and probably hopes
that Western Europe, the US, Iran, and Saudi Arabia will fur-
nish financial and military assistance to stave off Soviet en-
croachments. Peking also expects that its support of the Arab
states against Israel will lend weight. to its advice to the
Arabs that they avoid war with. Israel, support or at least not
openly criticize Pre ident Sadat's peace initiative, and be
wary of the Soviets.
OAU: Annual Summit Meeting
I I The annual summit meeting of the Organization of
rzcan unity ended Saturday without recommending any signifi-
cant policy changes on issues affecting Africa. The five-day
session, characterized by blunt language and heated discussion,
cleared the air but Zeft unresolved the controversies over for-
eign intervention on the continent and various intra-African
conflicts.
The summit was attended by the largest number of
African heads of state ever and ran one day over its original
schedule. Zambian President Kaunda, whose reaction was typical,
described the meeting as successful beyond expectations and
said the frank exchanges would in the end make the coninent
stronger. .
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The summit's final resolutions played down the divi-
sions created by the presence of Cuban, Soviet, and French
military personnel on the continent and upheld the right of
African states to take any steps they consider necessary to
protect their security.
Little progress was made toward settling conflicts
between various member states. The committees charged with
mediating the disputes between Ethiopia and Sudan, Ethiopia
and Somalia, and Chad and Libya had their mandates renewed,
and a new committee was created to monitor the rapprochement
between Angola and Zaire. The-dispute over Western Sahara was
relegated to a special summit, but similar decisions by the
last two OAU summits were not acted on.
I I Southern African issues proved easiest to deal with.
The ea s of state readily approved a call for an oil embargo
against South Africa and a resolution warning that the US would
be committing an "unfriendly act" if it lifted trade sanctions
against Rhodesia. Other proposed resolutions, including one on
independence for the Canary Islands, were dropped because of
lack of time.
The summit also elected the OAU's officials for the
next four-year term. Togolese Foreign Minister Kodjo was chosen
as Secretary General, a position that became available when
William Eteki of Cameroon, the incumbent, unexpectedly withdrew
from contention on Friday.
The election of Kodjo, who is French-educated and has
considerable administrative and financial experience, continues
the tradition of having outstanding technocrats fill this post.
He is likely to follow a moderate political line. The five newly
elected assistant secretaries are from Nigeria, Al eria Zambia,
Uganda, and Angola.
NAMIBIA: UN Session to Start
I I //The Western members of the UN Security Council
esent their proposal on Namibia to the Council this
week. Their plan for a transitional program leading to indepen-
dence has been accepted by South Africa and the South-West Africa
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People's Organization and has been backed by the fron {,Zin.-
African states and Nigeria. There is a re;zZ possibility, how-
ever, that controversy over the future of Walvis Bay will ;de-
Zay the Security Council's adoption of the Western plan and
even provoke the South Africans or the SWAPO leaders to rLnege
on their acceptance.//
//The Western envoy's today will ask the Security
Council to discuss informally a resolution requesting that the
Secretary General appoint a special representative for Namibia
and prepare recommendations for implementing the Western propo-
sal. If these informal discussions go smoothly, a formal ses-
sion may be convened as early as tomorrow to vote on the reso-
lution.//
//When Secretary General Waldheim submits his
recommen a ions-possibly by mid-August---the Western envoys
will ask the Council to reconvene and authorize him to set up
a UN group to assist in Namibia's transition to independence.
The group is to include a civil section and a military force;
it is to conduct a preindependence election and enforce a
truce between South African troops and SWAPO guerrillas.//
SWAPO leader Sam Nujoma, in a speech at the summit
ot the Organization of African Unity last week, called on the
African countries to press the Security Council to expedite"
such an early union. He also asked the African states to
press for revisions,in the Western plan that would be as un-
acceptable to Pretoria as any coercive wording in a Security
Council resolution on Walvis Bay.
I I Yesterday South African Foreign Minister Botha de-
ivere to Western ambassadors in Pretoria a letter to their
heads of government from Prime Minister Vorster. The letter
sets forth in great detail South Africa's claim to possession
of Walvis Bay and its refusal'to tolerate a Security Council
resolution calling for early union of Walvis Bay with Namibia.
The Western countries had promised SWAPO that they
wou support such a resolution., They also made clear, however,
to both SWAPO and South Africa that they intend to support nego--
tiationson Walvis Bay between Pretoria and the government
of Namibia that is elected in accordance with the Western
proposal.
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Vorster threatened in his letter to renege on his
government's acceptance of the Western settlement plan if the
five Western states back the African resolution on Walvis
Bay. Vorster has made such threats before and may hope that
his strong statement now will induce the Western countries to
abstain in the Security Council on the African resolution. Even
if Pretoria does not follow through with its threat; Vorster's
letter--if it is published as Botha said it will be--may provoke
non-Western members of the Security Council to support Nujomals
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latest demands.
F7 I
I //Despite their growing involvement in Afghani-
stan., the Soviets apparently are trying to emphasize Afghan
independence in order to encourage foreign assistance to
the new regime and calm regional suspicions.//
//In a recent conversation with the new US
Ambassador to Afghanistan, Soviet Ambassador Puzanov downplayed
the Soviet role there. He noted that Kabul and Moscow had always
enjoyed "friendly, productive relations" and said he expected
this to continue. According to Puzanov, the recent influx of
Soviet military advisers and the rash. of newly signed Soviet-
Afghan economic aid agreement were by no means out of the or-
dinary, and many of the agreements had been in the pipeline for
some time.//
//Puzanov denied that the ruling People's
Democratic Party of Afghanistan had been modeled after the So-
viet Communist Party or that there were party-to-party ties be-
tween the two. According to Puzanov, Moscow had never recognized
an Afghan Communist party.//
//Turning to international and regional affairs,
Puzanov applauded-the Afghan Government's stated intention of
negotiating its differences with Pakistan, as well as its de-
veloping relations with India. He characterized Afghan-Chinese
relations as "normal" and cited several Chinese aid programs.
In an obvious pitch for more Western aid for President Taraki's
regime, the Soviet envoy noted that Afghanistan was a poor coun-
try desperately in need of economic assistance.//
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//Puzanov's remarks seemed intended to under-
score tg ants an's nonalignment and play down its pro-Soviet
tilt. They probably reflect a growing Soviet concern over re-
gional and Western suspicions of Soviet designs in Afghanistan.
Arguments similar to Puzanov's have been made in the Soviet
press and by Afghan officials in discussions with US officials.//
//Moscow's concern, however, has apparently
not led to any changes in Soviet policy. Recent reporting sub-
stantiates earlier information that the Soviets have moved ad-
visers into all Afghan ministries and have doubled the size of
their military advisory group. In addition, there are reports
that a larger-than-usual number of Soviet advisers have been
assigned to Afghan units fighting rebel tribes in Konar and Pak-
tia Provinces, and that three Soviets were killed in June while
accompanying Afghan units into combat.
Spain
The murder on Friday of an Army general and his aide
by terrorists who apparently were hoping to provoke a military
takeover does not appear likely to derail the transition to
democracy in Spain. The armed forces are said to be angry and
greatly concerned about their personal security, but the US
Embassy does not believe this will lead to any attempt by them
to intervene directly in politics.
The killings did not hold up progress on the new
constitution; the lower house of the legislature approved it
the same day by a vote of 258 to two with 14 abstentions. The
Basque Nationalist Party deputies, still dissatisfied with the
provision for.regional autonomy, absented themselves from the
session rather than abstain or vote "no." Basque dissatisfaction
may be addressed again during Senate consideration of the con-
stitution..
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China-Vietnam
I IVietnam's agreement on Saturday to China's proposal
for opening vice-ministerial-level talks on the issue of ethnic
Chinese in Vietnam is unlikely to bring rapid progress toward
resolving differences. Like Peking's initiative, the Vietnamese
reply shows no indication of changes in Hanoi's firm line on
the problem.
Vietnam has proposed that the talks begin on 8 August
in Hanoi. The Chinese Embassy in Hanoi and lower ranking Viet-
namese officials have held fruitless discussions on the repatri-
ation issue for over a month. Talks between the vice ministers,
however, have not occurred since late March when Vietnamese Vice
Foreign Minister Phan Hien made several trips to Peking.
Bulgaria
I I Bulgaria's top agricultural official was fired on
Friday, possibly after a disagreement over how to repair damage
to the agricultural sector caused by severe storms this summer.
Ivan Prumov, who has been party secretary for agriculture since
1962, was relieved of his post by a Central Committee plenum.
His removal follows the establishment of a special task force
under Agriculture Minister Grigor Stoichkov that is to direct
rehabilitation work.
Damage to agricultural production from the storms is
estimated at $300 million. The regime, faced with growing
signs of public dissatisfaction in recent months over shortages
of food and consumer goods, is trying to allay consumers' fears
of new food shortages later this year. Stoichkov has appealed to
the people not to panic, but he has offered no guarantees that
the losses can be fully overcome. The authorities are also worried
about the storms' effect on exports of foodstuffs to Western
Europe, which are an essential source of Bulgaria's hard cur-
rency earnings. 25X1
Portugal
Members of the Center Democratic Party in Portuguese
r,rime Minister Snares' coalition government will resign today
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because of a dispute with Soares over implementation of aus-
terity and reform measures, according to press reports from
Lisbon.
The Prime Minister will probably replace them with
members of his own Socialist Party or with independents, and
he will hope to continue in office under a minority arrange-
ment. Should Soares choose to resign, however, President Eanes
is likely to ask him to reconsider and try to forma new gov-
ernment.
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