INTERAGENCY INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM - ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN ANGOLA

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• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00603A002700010001-4
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• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 29, 2005
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: June 10, 1977
• Content Type: MF

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ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN ANGOLA
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10 Jun 77
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II. 7-016: Assessment of DevelopmeO in Angola
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National Intelligence Officers
SUBJECT: Interagency Intelligence Memorandum - Assessment of Developments
in Angola
This memorandum was requested by the Department of State; it has
been coordinated at a working level within the Intelligence Community,
but has not been reviewed further because of pressure of time.
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National Intelligence Otticer
for Africa
Attachment
NI IIM 77-016
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SECRET
10.June 1977
INTERAGENCY INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
SUBJECT: Assessment of Developments in Angola
KEY JUDGMENTS
The Neto regime has been weakened and its long-
term prospects are much dimmer as a result of recent
developments, deteriorating economic and social
conditions in Angola, increased resentment against
the growing Cuban involvement, and insurgent suc-
cesses.
Nevertheless, with determined Cuban support,
Neto is likely to survive the current crisis. No
dissident faction nor any insurgent group acting
alone possesses the capacity to overthrow the
government, although insurgents may expand somewhat
or consolidate their position in territory they now
hold. We have no clear evidence that insurgents or
dissidents are planning to combine their forces, and
we believe that the crackdown now underway against
the regime's opponents as well as the persisting
differences among them will hinder any cohesive anti-
regime effort in the next few months.
The current turmoil is rooted in racial and fac-
tional divisions (mulatto-black, civilian-military)
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which have existed within the Popular Movement since
it was founded in 1956. No purge can eliminate them
or even suppress them for long.
We believe that in these circumstances the Neto
government will be forced into increasing dependence
on the Cubans. Although the Angolan commitment is
increasingly burdensome, the Cuban government now ap-
pears willing to commit additional resources to assure
the survival of the Neto regime, and we believe that
Havana will continue to do so unless the military situa-
tion becomes untenable or the USSR presses for a major
shift toward a policy of compromise.
Although other African leaders are increasingly
uneasy about the situation in Angola, we foresee no
significant shifts in Neto's relationships with the
OAU governments.
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