NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010100-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 18, 2006
• Sequence Number: 100
• Publication Date: July 11, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Tuesda 11 July 1978,
The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
MAURITANIA: Coup Leaders' Policies
LEBANON: Syrian Intentions
NORTH YEMEN: Political Maneuver
USSR - EASTERN EUROPE: Crops
SPAIN: Violence in Pamplona
NIGERIA: Political Activity
CHINA: Information Retrieval
UN: Committee on Disarmament
BRIEF:
Bulgaria
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MAURITANIA: Coup Leaders' Policies
The military officers who overthrew the Mauritanian
Government of Moktar Ould Daddah yesterday appear to be poZiti-
caZ centrists or conservatives friendly to the West, and es-
peciaZZy to the French. The apparent leader of the "national
military rehabilitation committee" that has seized control is
Lt. Col. Moustapha OuZd Mohamed SaZek, chief of staff of the
Mauritanian Armed Forces.
I The backgrounds of the coup leaders and statements by
spokesmen for the new regime suggest that the change of govern-
ment in Nouakchott probably will not alter the prosecution of
the conflict with the Polisario Front guerrillas or affect
military cooperation with Morocco.
In a conversation with US Ambassador Kryza, a high-
level Mauritanian administrator who claims that he is close to
the military junta stated that the new government will move
away from a state-controlled economy.
//It now appears that the coup may have been an
outgrowth of a struggle between conservative and progressive
factions in the ruling Mauritanian People's Party. The progres-
sives, led by the wife of President Ould Daddah, had been pushing
an anti-corruption campaign apparently aimed at purging con-
servatives from the government. The government's inability to
solve the serious economic problems that had brought the country
to the. edge of bankruptcy may also have motivated the coup
leaders.//
//Although the Mauritanian armed forces recently
have suffered reverses in clashes with Polisario Front guerril-
las, the military committee's statement that it had acted. to
save the country from dismemberment seems to preclude any ac-
commodation with the Front that would relinquish control over
that part of Western Sahara claimed by Mauritania.//
//There is no evidence that Morocco was involved
in or even aware of the move against Ould Daddah's government.
The Moroccans,. who have over 8,000 men in Mauritania, have ex-
pressed concern over the change of government, but it is un-
likely there will be any change in the military relationship
between the two countries. //Both sides recognize that it would
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be extremely difficult to prosecute the war against the guerril-
las single-handed. A mutual defense agreement was signed in
May last year, and military cooperation since then has been
good.
LEBANON: Syrian Intentions
Syrian President Assad is searching for a formula to
calm the situation in Lebanon while preparing for another round
of fighting if the Syrians cannot reach a compromise with the
Christian militia Leaders. Christian Leaders seem to be taking
a Less uncompromising Line than they had earlier. The truce in
Beirut continues to hold.
I The nominal Lebanese commander of the Arab peacekeep-
ing forces told US officials in Beirut yesterday that the Sy-
rians have not posed any conditions for an end to the fighting
and that they are willing to withdraw from positions in the
Christian areas if a face-saving formula can be negotiated.
The US Embassy in Damascus reports that Syrian military leaders
appear to be trying to project the idea at home that no mili-
tary confrontation is in the offing.
//According to the Israeli press, the Israelis
have sent reinforcements to the border area, and the US defense
attache in Tel Aviv noted some minor augmentation of Israeli
forces. There is no indication of large-scale Israeli troop
movements.//
If the Christians are less aggressive than in the
early days of the crisis, it may indicate that they have
heeded Israeli counsels of restraint. The Christians' eagerness
to take on the Syrians was based on their conviction that the
Israelis were prepared to give them extensive support and per-.
haps even intervene on the ground--a conviction that the Is-
raelis' sending jet fighters over Beirut intensified. If the
Israelis have succeeded in disabusing the Christians of this
notion, it could go a long way to restrain the hotheads.
I I
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AZi Abdallah Salih, a member of North Yemen's
Presidential Council and Deputy Commander in Chief of the
Armed Forces, has emerged as the regime's strongman and ap-
pears to be making a bid for the presidency. Salih enjoys
the support of Saudi Arabia, is basically pro-West, but has
a reputation as an adventurer.
Salih apparently intends to take over as both
President and head of the armed forces in the near future.
Salih has demonstrated his growing power by forcing
several prominent adversaries to leave the country. Saudi
Arabia, which has extensive influence in North Yemen, appears
to want Salih as the country's strongman and presumably would
support him if he makes a move to claim the presidency.
Critics of Salih include some military leaders and
A allah al-Ahmar, North Yemen's most prominent northern tribal
leader, who is also a Saudi client. His detractors assert that
Salih is unintelligent and immature and is not presidential
timber.
Salih nonetheless is apparently taking a realistic
It is uncertain when Salih might press his bid for
the presidency and what opposition he will meet when he does.
Although he could force the issue in the near term, Salih
might be content to wait until President Arashi resigns, at
which time Salih would attempt to have himself proclaimed
President. Arashi is reported to have indicated he will step
aside by early August.
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USSR - EASTERN EUROPE: Crops
We now estimate that the USSR will harvest 215 million
tons of grain this year, up almost 20 million tons from the 1977
crop and only 5 million tons shy of the 1978 Plan. The estimate
is the same as that released by the US Department of Agriculture
late yesterdaU. Prospects for grain production in Eastern Europe
also appear good, with a near-record crop of 93 million tons
now forecast. The outlook for other crops--especially potatoes
and sugar beets--in both the USSR and Eastern Europe is Less
favorable.
Even with the improved harvest, the USSR could pur-
chase about 15 million tons of grain abroad for delivery during
the coming marketing year. Market sources indicate that Moscow
may do some buying this month; to date the USSR has ordered only
about 1 million tons of US grain.
If favorable weather holds, we expect the USSR's
winter grain harvest to reach a near-record 62 million tons,
although late-season hail or poor harvesting weather could af-
fect both the size and the quality of the crop. Recent observa-
tions by the USDA's Winter Wheat Team support this assessment.
//Based on this year's above-normal soil mois-
ture reserves, spring grain production is forecast at 153 mil-
lion tons--a level exceeded by the Soviets only twice before--
but the outlook could change markedly. Fields in the European
USSR are excessively weedy, and east of the Urals crop develop-
ment is slower than normal, the result of delayed seeding and
the cool weather. Yields could be cut by an abnormally hot sum-
mer or by frost during delayed fall harvesting operations.//
Conditions for the major non-grain crops are not as
favorable. Weeds have interfered with plant growth, thinning of
sugar beets is reportedly behind schedule, and crop disease has
been reported.
Crops sown last fall in Eastern Europe survived the
winter in good shape, and this spring's cool, wet weather--
except in the northern part of East Germany and in northwestern
Poland--has favored plant growth. The above-normal precipita-
tion has, however, leached nutrients from the soil, at least
in Poland; and weeds, disease, and pests are common.
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SPAIN: Violence in Pamplona
Tension is once again rising in Spain's troubled
Basque region. If extremists there have their way, they will
initiate a new cycle of violence that will place severe strains
on the government and jeopardize a national consensus on the
new Spanish constitution.
I During the past three months, the leftist Basque
Father and and Liberty terrorist organization, in a last-ditch
bid to foil the government's plan to reduce tension by granting
limited autonomy, has stepped up attacks on policemen and po-
litical opponents. The terrorists may have triggered a resur-
gence of rightist counterterrorist organizations.
The violence in Pamplona that resulted in the death
of a leftist militant last weekend was the latest manifesta-
tion of the political tension that exists in the north. The
city is the capital of the northern province of Navarra, where
the people are evenly divided between Basques, who hope Navarra
will be incorporated in a larger autonomous Basque region, and
non-Basques who wish Navarra to remain a separate province. The
nationalists apparently hope that stirring up police repression
will drive more people over to their side.
The nationalists apparently hope to stir up popular
feeling throughout the Basque region against the draft Spanish
constitution, which would permit only limited regional autonomy.
Extremists will not be satisfied with anything short of complete
independence, and more moderate nationalists--who are still in
the majority--may find it politically impossible to accept the
constitution unless the government makes clear concessions to
them on the autonomy issue.
The government is responding cautiously. Tough new
antiterrorist measures came into effect on 1 July, but they
are similar to previous measures that did little to deter the
terrorists. Madrid is.also planning to introduce a Special Op-
erations Group of elite national police modeled on other West
European antiterrorist forces.
The root of the public order problem in the Basque
country, however, lies in the mutual, hatred that developed
during the Franco years between Basques and the national police.
As long as Madrid's police are stationed in the Basque country,
they will provide targets for terrorist attacks.
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So far, the Spanish military--still deeply suspicious
of the Basques, who were among Franco's bitterest enemies--has
probably been the main stumbling block to the establishment of
a local police force. The new constitution, which is likely
to be approved by parliament this month and ratified by refer-
endum early this fall, may provide the government with the man-
date it needs to create one.
NIGERIA: Political Activity
Rumors of coup plotting by middle-grade officers
to prevent a scheduled return to civilian rule next
year are circulating widely among civilians in Nigeria. We
have no firm evidence Nigerian officers are planning a coup
and believe the odds stiZZ favor a successful transition to
civilian rule. A coup attempt by some disgruntled officers,
however, is always a possibility. The government discovered
two coup plots in March.
Head of State Obasanjo, aware of the coup rumors,
last week appealed to the military to "keep our heads and
pledge" to facilitate a smooth transition to civilian rule
in 1979. We have no indications that Obasanjo or other key
members of the ruling military council have reservations about
returning to civilian rule.
The government remains suspicious of lower level
officers and feels under pressure to reward them with promo-
tions and opportunities to serve in government posts. Approxi-
mately 30 junior officers were recently promoted and some
middle-grade officers will be elevated soon.
Aspiring politicians and the press are calling for
legalization of political activity on 29 July, the third an-
niversary of Obasanjo's government.
Coup rumors are circulating in part because civilian
politicians are concerned that middle-grade officers want to
continue military rule so they can receive a share of power
and wealth. Many civilians fear would-be plotters could attempt
to justify a coup by citing the tensions that exist between
the northern and southern parts of the country. These tensions
have been exacerbated by the constituent assembly's decision
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to delete a constitutional provision for a federal Islamic
court of appeals. The government's discovery of the coup plots
in March sharpened the civilians' fears.
To avoid giving a pretext for a coup, Nigerian poli-
ticians may exercise restraint when open politicking is allowed.
Rekindled ethnic tensions and the country's economic problems
have led to a growing pessimism among the general public that
civilian government will work. The idea of continued military
rule is probably now somewhat less unpalatable to concerned
Nigerians than it was a year ago. Even so, the civilian elite
is determined to achieve power, and potential plotters will
have to take this into account in considering a coup.
China apparently has selected a US firm to supply
equipment for a national computerized data network for sci-
entific and technical information--a top priority project in
the Chinese effort to enhance scientific development. The US
and COCOM will have to approve the export of the equipment.
The Chinese signed contracts on 14 June with Sperry
Univac for two 1100 Series computer systems valued at more
than $6 million. The Peking Institute of Science and Technology
apparently plans to use a Univac 1100/11 computer. The "Peking
Document Service" allegedly hopes to use a Univac 1100/12
multiprocessor system--two computers linked in tandem--as part
of a national information retrieval system. on technical publi-
cations.
//"Peking Document Service" apparently is a new
term referring to the main repositories of scientific and
technical information in the Peking area, including the libra-
ries of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a number of research
institutes.// Its proposed retrieval system would be accessible
to scientific and technical research centers nationwide; the
high-speed data transmission network would utilize existing
telecommunication circuits.
China's lack of an adequate mechanism for information
dissemination and exchange has been a major obstacle to its
scientific advancement. Many of China's scientific centers
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conduct research nearly autonomously, and institutes working
on similar projects have not usually exchanged information.
The proposed information network would provide technicians
with direct access to some of the latest Western scientific
and technical data as well as Chinese research studies.
COCOM approval for export and will pose a difficult problem
for licensing officials. The 1100/12 would be by far the highest
erformance system ever approved for any Communist country.
The Univac computer systems will reqvire both US and
//The Conference of the Committee on Disarmament
convenes today in Geneva for a final session before it is re-
constituted as an expanded Committee on Disarmament. Much of
the committee's attention will focus on the arms control talks
that the nuclear powers have been holding, particularly the
US-Soviet-British negotiations on a comprehensive test ban
treaty. The delegates will also discuss selecting members for
the expanded committee.//
I //To contribute to verification of a test ban,
the committee has established an ad hoc group of seismic experts
to study the feasibility of testing an international seismic
data exchange system. Some committee members want to proceed
with this experiment, but the USSR has so far refused to agree
to anything more than further study. France does not wish to
discuss a nuclear test ban and will probably not participate
in the committee's final session.//
//The Soviets will likely push their draft treaty,
introduced during the committee's previous session, that calls
for outlawing the production, stockpiling, and use of "nuclear
neutron weapons." They may also press their proposal to estab-
lish a group of experts to consider the control of new weapons
of mass destruction.//
//A separate working group will begin to negotiate
a comprehensive program of disarmament. The group had delayed
its substantive work pending the results of the UN Special
Session on Disarmament.//
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//The UN Special Session approved a decision that
the new committee, scheduled to meet no later than January 1979,
should include states that have nuclear weapons and from 32 to
35 other countries chosen in consultation with UN General As-
sembly President Moysov. The new committee will thus have re-
presentatives from an additional five to eight nonnuclear states.
Moysov has indicated his intention to let the nuclear weapons
states take the lead in the selection process. The British want
to begin this process with US-Soviet-British consultations and
later to form a contact group with selected nonaligned repre-
sentatives.//
//There are already more candidates for the com-
mittee than there are seats available, even if one or two of
the least active members of the present committee are dropped.
Australia is the Western state most likely to win one of the
added seats. The chief nonaligned candidates are Algeria, In-
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Bulgaria
Hailstorms and flooding that damaged some 15 percent
of Bulgaria's agricultural acreage could cause serious food
shortages this year and exacerbate existing consumer dissatis-
faction. Worker unrest in recent months is said to have been
caused by anger over such shortages and the generally low level
of living. Even before the recent damage, Bulgarian officials
expressed concern over panic buying and hoarding of foodstuffs
and rumors of impending price increases.
The wide-scale damage suffered by croplands and vine-
yards throughout the country will probably have an adverse effect
on Bulgaria's foodstuff exports, a major hard currency earner.
A drop in agricultural production last year caused the government
to fire numerous top officials including the Minister of Agri-
culture.
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