BLOCK III: NEW METHODOLOGIES OF INTEREST TO INTELLIGENCE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84-00780R005600030028-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 23, 2006
• Sequence Number: 28
• Content Type: SUMMARY

Approved For Releaste 00q/05/23: CIA-RDP84-00780R005600030028-0
BLOCK III: NEW METHODOLOGIES OF INTEREST TO INTELLIGENCE
The growth in the size and complexities of the target
subjects of U.S. Intelligence and the Intelligence Community
itself poses serious questions concerning the adequacy of
traditional approaches of intelligence analysis and management
of intelligence resources. The family of new methodologies has
been used with success in such areas of intelligence as the
development of large technical collection systems and data
reduction. Interest in applying these techniques to intelli-gence analysis and management has been growing, but it still
lags due to human resistance to change and as a result of
conflicting and often unproven claims as to their value. This
Block presents a brief overview of the major quantitative
methodologies and provides a more detailed exposure to several
of particular interest in, intelligence work.
MORI/CDF
lliT IT
A roved For Release 2006/05/23: CIA-RDP84-00780R005600030028-0
 Approved For Release 2006/05/23: CIA-RDP84-0078OR005600030028-0
O:i:GY
SCOPE NOTE
NEW METHODS FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS ANALYSIS: AN OVERVIEW
The post World War II behavioral revolution in the social
sciences has made it possible for analysts of international
affairs to employ more precise formulations of important concepts,
and to uncover recurring behavioral patterns.in situations
hitherto treated as unique. After discussing the historical con-
text of the behavioral revolution and some of the reasons for the
lag in applying these new methods, a proponent of these new
approaches will discuss their capabilities and components. He
will present an overview of the many new theoretical approaches
(e.g., Systems Theory and Game Theory) and descriptions of some
of the techniques being used'in them (e.g., Decision Analysis,
Simulation), and conclude with a discussion of possible approaches
to the utilization of these new methods in foreign affairs and
intelligence analysis.
.t~.!'i~~.k. 1'~ ni .?.i.:i :. +?Y~-U cz 1. ~..1 Z~.o ~s.1( U5 \~
.i.. V.i~.. U't 1JY
 Approved For Releases,RQQ~i9,51~p :. C~A-F F.a4-p0784QRt
SCOPE NOTE
PROBABILITY ESTIMATES AND PROBABILISTIC PROCEDURES
IN INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS
Intelligence forecasts are often sufficiently uncertain so
that the extent of the uncertainty should be communicated to the
users. Probabilities and odds are natural numerical devices for
doing so. But various problems, including unfamiliarity with
probability theory, the vague, verbal, and qualitative nature of
much intelligence data, and certain human biases, make probability
estimates difficult. A new intelligence information processing
technology built around Bayes's Theorem of probability theory
has been developed and is coming into extensive use. One of its
developers, a nationally recognized authority in this field, will
explain it and illustrate it* application to solution of an
intelligence estimation problem. He will also discuss efforts
in both CIA and DIA to study and exploit this technology.
.1D:;IIiIIST:.,1T I.11 , -IIJir i:L1s, USE O: ?=,`X
Approved For Release 2006/05/23: CIA-RDP84-00780R005600030028-0
 Approved For Release 2006/05/23: CIA-RDP84-00780R005600030028-0
SCOPE NOTE
MANAGEMENT. SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT OF INTELLIGENCE
Intelligence organizations are currently pressed to provide
even more effective management of limited resources. One approach
to this problem is the fuller. use of quantitative and analytical
methods which collectively are called Management Science. An
advocate of this concept will briefly analyze management pro-
cesses and then discuss the relevance and use of such methods
as organization theory, probability, forecasting, resource allo-
cation, and decision-theory, as an aid in the Management of
Intelligence.
-.AL USE 07
Approved For Release 2006/05/23: CIA-RDP84-00780R005600030028-0
 Approved For Release 2006/05/23: CIA-RDP84-00780R005600030028-0
U-': C:.LY
EXPLORATION OF NEW METHODOLOGIES IN THE CS
The adaptation of modern management methodologies and
techniques to the particular needs of the Clandestine Service
will be surveyed by two officers assigned to this area. New
approaches for evaluating and analyzing risk, productivity and
resource use in support of CS managers will be discussed, with
examples of progress to date.
AD 1IZ1IS R T l'T~, Zia:' .1L U3 c::LY
Aooroved For Release 2006/05/23: CIA-RDP84-00780R005600030028-0
 Approved For Release 2006/05/23: CIA-RDP84-00780R005600030028-0
US`. 0."147
ADP IN CIA: SURVEY AND OUTLOOK
Three generations of computers have profoundly impacted
on the work of CIA---an Agency whose first human generation is
still very much alive. A senior officer who has been associated
with many facets of ADP activities will present a panorama of
the major efforts to cope with the burgeoning information handling
problem and with the increasingly sophisticated applications of
ADP for technical collection, intelligence analysis and manage-
ment, including some peculiar to the Agency. He will outline
some likely future trends and developments in how the Agency
organizes and applies its ADP resources.
USE 017,'?
Aooroved For Release 2006/05/23: CIA-RDP84-00780R005600030028-0
 Approved For Releasf'2tTO6/05/23---'G1A ,DP84-00780R005600030028-0
A U.S. STRATEGIC MODEL: THE ARSENAL EXCHANGE PROBLEM
Understanding Soviet defense policy is a major goal of
U.S. intelligence. The Soviet view of the relationship between
the strategic forces of the U.S. and USSR is an important input
to the determination of Soviet defense policy. The composition
and complexity of the opposing nuclear arsenals make it diffi-
cult, however, to measure the strategic balance. Computer-
driven interaction models help to overcome the ambiguities of-.
simple quantitative measures by relating the numbers and
characteristics of the opposing arsenals to likely target plans
under different strategic situations. The Arsenal Exchange Model
has been used increasingly in this way to support analysis of
U.S. and Soviet SALT proposals and to assist in projecting Soviet
strategic forces for National Intelligence Estimates and inter-
agency studies conducted under NSC auspices.
Approved For Release 2006/def2 3 ~ CIA=RDP84-00780R005600030028-0
 Approved For Relej ti d006/05I23 : CIA-RDP84-00780R005600030028-0
SCOPE NOTE
DECISION-MAKING MODELS: THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS
Several widely varying scenarios for U.S. decision-making
in a major crisis will be developed and discussed by a leading
student of the decision process. He will draw especially on
data from the Cuban missile crisis to create several different
models to "explain" the decisions actually made.. The general
relevance of this approach to intelligence analysis will be
emphasized.
LS 01INTL'
Aooroved For Release 2006/05/23: CIA-RDP84-0078OR005600030028-0
 Approved For Release 2006/05/23: CIA-RDP84-00780R005600030028-0
ilitul6y{~ul::ila tt~ m ui _...,...I u::._,
INTELLIGENCE PRODUCTS: PROBLEMS AND IMPROVEMENTS
Problems in present intelligence products as seen by NSC
staff consumers will be discussed by the Director, Net Assessment
Group, NSC. He will discuss problems with present products, the
need for sensitivity to consumer needs, possible new approaches
to analysis, and the impact of net assessment on intelligence.
Annrrwcdl Fnr R0404i.Ao MOB/
 Approved For Release 2006/05/23: CIA-RDP84-0078OR005600030028-0
.;:,`1,L USE. CLX
IMPLICATIONS OF NEW METHODOLOGIES FOR CIA
The usefulness of new methodologies--both for future
patterns of intelligence collection, processing and production
as-well as for selection and management of intelligence
resources--will be explored by an inter-Directorate panel. The
panelists will consider those methodologies now accepted as
useful to intelligence and those which offer promise for advances
in our intelligence work and product.
or Release 2006/05/23: CIA-RDP84-0078OR005600030028-0
 Approved For Release 2006/05/23: CIA-RDP84-00780R00~600030028-0
L;~ riI1 I:~Ii.~TIV ZNTEii IL U;~ .C:._ t
SCOPE NOTE
SIMULATION AND MODELING IN WORLD AFFAIRS ANALYSIS
After a review of the concept of simulation and the uses
of models for social analysis and forecasting,' the speaker will
discuss his own efforts in the field of modeling global systems.
He will describe the background and purposes of his The Limits
to Growth study, followed by an explanation of the components
of the World 3 Model in terms of its major variables and relation-
ships. The presentation will conclude with a brief discussion
of the major criticisms of the study and his plans for further
research in this area.
f
. . .. .
Aonroved For Release 2006/05/23: CIA-RDP84-00780R005600030028-0
 Approved For ReleA;gP 1 CJA:t} $41QQr 0 M5600030028-0
FUTURISM
The need for new methods arises not only from current
pressures and developments but also for longer-range pro-
jections of the future by "futurists." What futurism is, the
kinds of things futurists do, and the tools they use will be
discussed by a knowledgeable scientist-official of the National
Science Foundation.
' t
Approved For Release 2006105.123: CIA-RDP84-0078OR005600030028-0
 Approved For Release 2006/05/23: CIA-RDP84-0078OR005600030028-0
. ililltiJSTi:_AT V-. I: L ::Say c:L'1
THE NEED FOR NEW METHODS: AN OVERVIEW
An academic expert with government experience will briefly
review the new methods and raise the following questions for
general discussion:
1) What types of predictive performance can they
now provide?
2) How good would their predictive power need to be
to make them useful for intelligence purposes?
3) To what extent can predictive power be increased
through applied research and development?
4) What relationships between government analysts and
academic experts are likely to make the new methods
most fruitful?
AoDroved For Release 2006/05/23: CIA-RDP84-0078OR005600030028-0