NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010050-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2006
• Sequence Number: 50
• Publication Date: June 10, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Saturday 10 June 1978 CG NIDC 78/135C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
State Dept. review completed
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Saturday, 10 June 1978.
The NID Cable is for the purpose ot in orming
senior icials.
CONTENTS
PERU: Emergency Measures Eased
Page 2
WARSAW PACT - NATO: Negotiations
Page 3
WORLD GRAIN: Outlook
Page 4
MEXICO: World Food Council Meets
BRIEFS
Page 6
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PERU: Emergency Measures Eased
The Peruvian Government's lifting of the state of
emergency--enacted last month because of widespread rioting
over food and fuel price increases--appears to ensure that the
national constituent assembly election will be held on schedule
later this month. All 12 registered parties probably will par-
ticipate in the election, even though nine leftist assembly
candidates remain in exile and others are still being sought
by police for their alleged role in the disturbances.
The government's decision, announced on Thursday,
restores the right of peaceful assembly, reinstitutes free
television and radio coverage of the candidates, and probably
will allow most independent weekly magazines to resume publi-
cation.
Those parts of the emergency decree that permit de-
portations and arrests without warrants, however, were retained
for 30 days. These provisions will enable the government to
continue a hard-line policy against organized labor and the
left. It hopes this policy will prevent a recurrence of public
disturbances and a general strike like the one that crippled
most major cities for 48 hours on 22 and 23 May.
The country has been relatively quiet since the gen-
era s ri e, but the government has had to cope with a trouble-
some teachers' walkout. The police have arrested a number of
strike leaders, and some teachers who failed to report to work
this week were suspended.
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Even though all parties have deplored the suspension
o cons i utional guarantees and the interruption it has caused
in the campaign, full participation in the election now seems
assured. Leftist parties, which were hit hard by the government
decree, may believe that participation in the election and in
the assembly itself will provide some measure of protection
from repression.
The balloting, now scheduled for 18 June, could be
delayed one day if the Peruvian soccer team c:ont' par-
ticipate in the World Cup playoffs in Argentina. r7 25X1
WARSAW PACT - NATO: Negotiations
The USSR and its allies presented a counterproposal
to the Western initiative of 19 April at Thursday's plenary
session of the Mutual and Balanced Force Reduction talks. The
East essentially proposes to accept part of the substance of
the Western initiative for reductions and ceilings in exchange
for acceptance by the Western side of Eastern manpower figures
presented earlier by the East. The East's response demonstrates
that the Warsaw Pact is interested in keeping the negotiations
moving; it may also be intended to give an incentive to the
West to-accept Eastern manpower figures.
I IThe Eastern numbers on air and ground forces in Cen-
tral Europe are substantially lower than Western estimates be-
cause the Soviets and their allies exclude personnel the West
believes should be counted. The East has not admitted to making
any exclusions, nor has it indicated when or if it would nego-
tiate on data.
I In its new plan, the East proposed to accept the
western c 11 for a common ceiling for each side of 900,000 men
in ground and air forces in Central Europe with 700,000 men
from that number allocated to the ground forces. A formula
would allow one country to compensate in part for a unilateral
reduction by another country on the'same side, but each par-
ticipant would be prohibited from increasing its forces above
the prereduction level.
The first phase of reductions, to be completed in one
year from the signing of an agreement, would involve reductions
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in ground force personnel by only the USSR and the US. In addi-
tion, each side would be required to withdraw specific arma-
ments from the area. The previous Warsaw Pact plan required
equal reductions of all major types of armaments by each side;
the new proposal accepts the Western concept of withdrawing
different weapons from each side.
The Soviets appear to have accepted a West German
propo a or two steps during the second phase of reductions.
In the first year of the second phase, all countries except
the USSR and US would make 40 percent of the overall strength
reduction. During the second and third years, all these coun-
tries would complete the remaining 60 percent of the reduction
required to reach parity. The US and USSR would make further
reductions during the second phase so that their total reduc-
tions would be proportional to the cuts taken by their allies.
//World grain consumption increases will outpace
production increases during 1978-79, according to our estimates.
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Exporter stocks, however, will remain well above the level of
the early 1970s and would suffice to meet a higher level of de-
mand than now forecast. The decline in stocks in non-Communist
countries will occur almost entirely in the large US holdings.
Cuts in US wheat production should be more than offset by in-
creases in Europe, Australia, and the developing countries.
Higher Soviet production of coarse grains is expected to off-
set likely declines in the US and Canada. Total world import
demand for wheat in 1978-79 should fall about 8 percent, while
trade in coarse grains is not likely to change appreciably.//
I //World wheat production should :increase by 3 per-
cent during 1978-79--the second best crop on record. Officials
in some major Southern Hemisphere producing countries, notably
Australia and Argentina, are predicting large increases in the
area now being seeded for the December harvest.//
//Growing conditions for winter wheat in the North-
ern Hemisp ere are generally better than a year ago. In the
USSR, conditions in late May in both the winter and spring
wheat areas were generally favorable to support an above-
average wheat crop similar in size to that of last year. Canada
expects a 2-percent increase in the area seeded to spring wheat
if dry and warm weather arrives soon. A 15-percent cut in US
wheat production will be offset by increases in these other
areas.//
//The production increases projected by some major
wheat producers should cause trade in wheat and flour over the
next 12 months to decline by about 8 percent. China's imports
may fall by about 2 million tons; import reductions are also
projected for Europe, including the USSR, because the price re-
lationship between wheat and coarse grains is expected to be
less favorable for feeding wheat over the next 12 months.//
//The lower level of wheat trade will still re-
quire total stocks of major exporters to be reduced moderately
by 30 June 1979. Demand for US wheat is likely to be down in
every major region except Asia, where China has made recent
purchases.//
//Coarse grain production is projected to increase
less than 1 percent over the next year. Increases are expected
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in the USSR and Eastern Europe, while only a few Southern Hemi-
sphere countries are expecting increases if the drought experi-
enced during the past year breaks. Production of corn, the
most important coarse grain, will remain at last year's high
level.//
//World import demand for corn should continue
strong year due largely to the strong demand for livestock
feed in the developed and centrally planned economies, although
the USSR will probably cut its imports by 5 percent. Non-Co
stocks will drop somewhat during the 1978-79 season.
I I
MEXICO: World Food Council Meets
I IThe fourth ministerial session of the United Nations
World Food Council, the only international body dealing excZu-
sively with food policy, will open Monday in Mexico City. The
participants will review the progress made toward implementing
last year's recommendations on increasing food production and
the quality of nutrition in developing countries, creating an
emergency grain reserve, increasing food aid, and easing food
trade problems. Last year the Council functioned as a signifi-
cant forum for the international dialogue on food and agricul-
ture. Although the limited success of last year's meeting and
the generally conciliatory tone of most recent North-South ses-
sions suggest that the 1978 meeting may also be somewhat pro-
ductive, several factors could prevent it from being effective.
Reports from preparatory meetings this year indicate
that ouncil leadership is less in control than it was at last
year's meeting and that the meetings were characterized by lack
of focus and considerable conflict within the developing na-
tions' delegations. In addition, out of bureaucratic confusion
as well as general disinterest in multilateral discussions on
food, the Mexican Government appears to have done little admin-
istratively or substantively in its role as host for the meet-
ing. Mexico, although a food importer, is confident of its
ability to arrange for food security on a bilateral basis with
the US.
The imminent appointment of a new Executive Director
aiso p s a potential threat to the session; the competition
between a developing country candidate and one from the US may
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reopen an old controversy between the developed. and developing
blocs over which group .should contribute the management. The
possibility that a dispute over the post could disrupt the
meeting may cause the appointment of the developing country
candidate. .
It is more likely, however, that pressure from the
signi.icant number of developing countries that. already pri-
vately favor the, US candidate will force a compromise, and the
developing country candidate will either withdraw or accept
the post of Deputy Executive Director that has already.been
offered him.
If the Mexico City meeting were to disintegrate into
a polemical forum, as occurred in 1975 and 1976, the result
would almost certainly be a drop in the level of representation
at the end of the Council's limited useful-
ness.
President Carter's speech at Annapolis on Wednesday
apparently has produced some confusion among the Soviets.
Georgiy Arbatov, the most important academic "Americanologist,"
on Wednesday gave a surprisingly mild reaction to the advance
text in an interview with CBS News and in a discussion with a
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scholar. He said the President's remarks were "encouraging,"
and said the speech was better than the one the President made
at Wake Forest earlier in the year.
An official of Arbatov's Institute called CBS on
Thursday, however, to ask that the most complimentary passages
be deleted from the CBS tape. The official Soviet news reac-
tions to the speech have been more negative, and Arbatov's re-
traction indicates there is little chance that positive or bal-
anced reactions to the President's remarks will be voiced by
the Soviets at this time.
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