NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010040-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2006
• Sequence Number: 40
• Publication Date: June 5, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Monday 5 June 1978 CG NIDC 78/130C
(Security Classification)
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
State Dept. review
completed
1?I?CI.IVt'L RECORD
Top Secret
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ZAIRE: Situation Report
Spurred on by France, a number of French-speaking
r'can countries have agreed to provide troops for a pan-.
African force to maintain order in the Shaba Region of Zaire
after the withdrawal of French and Belgian airborne units.
Morocco wilt furnish the largest contingent--some 1,500 men.
The vanguard of this force began leaving Morocco yesterday
abroad US transport aircraft. Most of the Moroccan troops were
engaged in fighting the Polisario Front guerrillas in the
Sahara and have considerable combat experience.
General Loubar:Ls, who led the Moroccan expeditionary
force to Shaba last year,, will again command the Moroccan con-
tingent.
The other countries involved are readying their troops
for a US airlift to Shaba. Senegal, Togo, Gabon, and the Ivory
Coast are prepared to send from 100 to 600 men each. Transport
schedules indicate that these forces will begin arriving in
Shaba in the next two days.
According to the French deputy Chief of Staff for
Operations, the French military is prepared to withdraw French
forces immediately from Zaire, but they cannot get authoriza-
tion from President Giscard to do so. The officer said that
critical logistic shortages and the fear that the military
situation might worsen put the remaining French Legionnaires
in a precarious position. He pointed to political opposition
in France and Zaire as another reason favoring early withdrawal
of French troops and said that the Legionnaires' prolonged stay
in Zaire limited France's capability to intervene in other
countries such as Chad or Mauritania.
The French Government apparently has not accepted
the recommendation of the Joint Staff that the remaining troops
be withdrawn soon because it fears that the withdrawal would
be interpreted as a sign that France is abandoning Zaire and
would lead to a panic exodus from Shaba of the remaining Euro-
pean technicians. The French official believes that some Le-
gionnaires may remain in Zaire for "a few more weeks" but is
hopeful that most of them can leave as soon as the African
force is in place. The deployment of the African force may
also determine the departure date of the Belgian troops.
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The Zairian press claims that Zairian Army units
captured the Katar:gan-held town of Mutshatsha Saturday.
I I There is still no confirmation of Belgian reports
o a itional disturbances in northeastern Zaire. American
missionaries in the region report that all is quiet. In a con-
versation with Ambassador Cutler on Friday, a high-ranking
Zairian Foreign Ministry official denied the existence of a
security problem in the northeast. He acknowledged, however,
that the Zairian Army had sent troops to the region. The Em-
bassy subsequently learned that President Mobutu also went to
Bunia in northeastern Zaire on Saturday.
I Elsewhere, a Zairian military officer warned the
occupan s of an American firm's work camp at Kananga that rebels
were in the area and said that the rebels hope to seize the
camp. Most of the occupants of the camp were evacuated.
The Zairian Government seems to be increasingly con-
cerned at disorders will increase. There were some disturb-
ances at the university in Kinshasa last week, and the US Em-
bassy reports there were a large number of roadblocks on the
road from Kinshasa to Matadi in Bas Zaire. Zairian military
sources have reported possible disturbances in Bas Zaire.
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Monday, 5 June 1978.
]The NID Cable is tor the purpose ot informing
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CONTENTS
USSR-FRANCE: Soured Relations
Page 2
SAUDI ARABIA - FRANCE: :King Khalid
Page 3
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Turmoil
Page 4
Page 7
West Germany
Bangladesh
Oman
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tJSSR-FRANCE: Soured Relations
Relations between France and the USSR have soured
since the French intervention in Zaire, but neither side desires
a major breakdown in relations.
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The USSR has canceled Soviet Chief of Staff Ogarkov's
planned mid-June official. visit to France, presumably to show
displeasure with the French action in Zaire. The Soviets have
also published allegations that French and Belgian forces were
solely responsible for the bloodshed in Zaire's Shaba Region,
and this provoked an immediate sharp French reply.
In fact, there are several issues capable of disrupt-
ing the diplomatic calm the Soviets have tried to preserve in
their dealings with West European countries since the early
1970s. The USSR sees the French jump into Shaba not as an iso-
lated ploy but as the latest move in a comprehensive strategy
to preserve Western interests throughout Africa. The Soviets
also dislike new French approaches in such areas as disarmament
and are sensitive about proposed French arms sales to China.
Soviet demarches protesting French exploration of the possibil-
ity of such sales will receive full attention in Paris, but
they are unlikely to halt. negotiations, which are already well
advanced.
Politically, President Giscard could not afford to
cool relations with the USSR in order to move closer to the US,
but he is on firmer ground when French and Soviet interests can
be portrayed as being in direct conflict. Arms sales to China may
be such a case, and there also is now a national consensus on
the issue of human rights in the Soviet Union. The French Com-
munists, for instance, have joined the government in condemning
the trial of Soviet dissident Yuriy Orlov. French commitments
in Africa, on the other hand, are potentially unpopular.
At some point, the French may feel obliged to distance
themselves from certain US or NATO projects in order to demon-
strate that chillier relations with the Soviets do not signify
rapprochement with the US or reintegration into NATO. Disarma-
ment negotiations and NATO consultations are the most likely
areas in which the French may show their continuing independ-
ence.
SAUDI ARABIA - FRANCE: King Khalid
//Saudi King KhaZid's official visit to France
last week marked a modest step forward in the continuing de-
velopment of closer bilateral relations, according to the US
Embassy in Paris. Contrary to press speculation before and
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during the visit, however, no major economic or military agree-
ments appear to have been concluded. The Saudis expressed con-
siderable c rn about developments in Africa, particularly
in Eritrea,ffa-12 -------- I
Africa figured prominently in talks between Saudi
Foreign ?inister Prince Saud and French officials. Saud told
the French that the situation in Eritrea was "crucial" for
Saudi Arabia. The Saudis believe that any negotiated solution
there must be based on a 1962 United Nations resolution on the
right of self-determination for the Eritreans. Saud said it
was unacceptable that Cuba, acting as a Soviet agent, should
be allowed to mediate the dispute. He also expressed concern
that Somali President Siad could again face internal political
trouble.
Prince Saud said the Soviets seem to have the capacity
to destabilize African regimes at will and rhetorically asked,
"Is there a European or American policy toward Africa?" He re-
peated the standard Saudi position that Europe, and especially
the US, must wake up to the Soviet danger in Africa.
The Saudis showed particular interest in holding
regu ar consultations with the French to obtain the French view
of developments in Europe and of Communist activities around
the world.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Turmoil
I //Shaykh Rashid of Dubai, the United Arab Emirates'
Vice Presi ent and leading spokesman for states rights, is em-
broiled in a dispute with UAE President Shaykh Zayid of Abu
Dhabi and has threatened to withdraw from the federation. The
?onfLict, which is based on personal and family rivalries as
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well as fundamental disagreement over the direction the seven-
member union _f Persian Gulf shaykhdoms should take, began
when the UAE was established in December 1971, but appears to
be more strident now than in previous episodes.//
//The current dispute arose in February when Shaykh
Zayid ordered the unification of the union's several armed
forces, abolished the regional command structure that in effect
permitted the several emirates to have their own military or-
ganizations, and appointed his second son as commander-in-chief.
Zayid's unilateral moves came after the UAE's Supreme Council
of Rulers refused to act on his armed forces reorganization
plan--even in the face of his threat to cut off financial sup-
port to the military establishment.//
//On 9 May, Rashid told the British Ambassador
that e would withdraw Dubai from the UAE unless Shaykh Zayid
"undertook" to observe the union's provisional constitution and
to give the Dubaian leader a bigger role in dec:isionmaking.//
//The British suspect that Rashid's threat is cal-
culated o induce the UK, Saudi Arabia, and Iran to put pressure
on Shaykh Zayid to be more conciliatory. The UK, in fact, has
counseled unity to both Zayid and Rashid. Neither the Saudis
nor the Iranians are particularly fond of Zayid, but they be-
lieve that the collapse of the UAE would damage regional secu-
rity and open the way to leftist-backed subversion.//
//Rashid's goal is to reverse the tide toward a
stronger central government and to apply a strict interpreta-
tion to the UAE's provisional constitution.//
//Economic issues also are involved in the dispute.
The poorer shaykhdoms complain that Abu Dhabi's commitment to
"business nationalism" is intended to throttle their economic
growth and to make them perpetually dependent on Zayid's oil
money. //
//Althoughl in the ruling circles 25X6
of both Abu Dhabi and Dubai who would like to see the union dis-
solved, a way almost certainly will be found once more to paper
over the differences between Zayid and Rashid.//
u state of Qatar that the UAE is "finished" and that Rashid
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espite alarming reports coming out of the nearby
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will pull Dubai out of the union in the next week or so, the
US Ambassador in Abu Dhabi does not believe that dissolution
is imminent.
//As long as Abu Dhabi's oil wealth pays the union's
i s and until enough time has passed for a sense of nationhood 25X1
to develop, it will be virtually impossible to achieve a con- 25X1
sensus on the nature of the union or the relationship between
the shaykhdoms and the central government.// 17
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West Germany
I I The Free Democratic Party failed to win any seats
in the West German state elections held yesterday in Hamburg
and Lower Saxony. The party did not receive the minimum 5 per-
cent of the vote needed to retain representation in the state
assemblies.
I I Party chairman and Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich
ensc er blamed the defeats in part on environmentalists who
ran independent candidates. The Free Democrats had taken part
in coalition governments with the Social Democrats in Hamburg
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F__ I
Bangladesh
The election Saturday of General Ziaur Rahman as
President of Bangladesh assures a continuation of Zia's mod-
erately pro-Western foreign policy and emphasis on political
stability and economic development. Bangladesh will probably
remain heavily dependent upon the US for food aid.
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Zia's will first try to mend fences with neighboring
Burma. Relations between the two countries have been tense
>ince Burma launched a campaign to oust illegal immigrants and
caused more than 100,000 Muslims of Bangladeshi origin to flee.
A team of negotiators from Dacca is scheduled to arrive in
tangoon later this week to begin talks on the possible repatria-
tion of the exiles.
Zia's overwhelming victory--he received about 75 per-
cent o. t e vote--over the candidate of the former ruling party,
the Awami League, may aid his efforts to create a political
front to oppose the League in the parliamentary election sched-
uled for November. Although the defeated opposition candidate
has charged voting irregularities, the election was free of vio-
lence, and the Awami League is not likely to be able to muster
a sufficient following to challenge the new government.
I I
The killing of five British technicians in Oman last
week could mark the beginning of a new strategy of terrorism
aimed at civilians by the Popular Front for the Liberation of
Oman--a Marxist group dedicated to overthrowing the conservative
regimes of Oman and the Persian Gulf shaykhdoms.
Since December 1975 when Oman, with the help of
British a visers and several thousand Iranian troops, finally
was able to declare a guerrilla war with the Popular Front over,
the rebels have carried out only sporadic actions--mostly against
military targets. The rebels have been aided by South Yemen in
the past, and both the Saudis and North Yemenis have been pre-
dicting renewed South Yemeni - sponsored trouble in the area.
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