NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010014-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 25, 2006
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: May 19, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Friday 19 May 1978 CG NIDC 78/117C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
State Dept. review completed
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Daily Cable for Friday, 19 May 1978.
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The NID Cable is for the purpose o informing
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
EGYPT: Reactions to Crackdown
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Election Fraud
Results of 1977 Drought
SAHEL:
BRIEFS:
USSR
CHINA
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EGYPT: Reactions to Crackdown
The targets of Egyptian President Sadat's crackdown
on both the political Left and right have labeled the referen-
dum he plans Sunday unconstitutional and have vowed to fight
back, if necessary "in the streets." The government, meanwhile,
is trying to marshal popular support for the vote and may al-
ready have taken legal steps preparatory to dissolving one of
Egypt's three "official" parties, the party of the Left. Sadat
is likely to have his way, but his course is not without
danger.
I ISadat moved forcefully against his critics on 14 May
by issuing a new "corrective" to Egypt's political evolution
and more rigidly defining the principles by which political
parties must operate. He intends through the referendum to
sideline the old guard leadership of the conservative New Wafd
Party and probably to dissolve the party of the left, the
National Progressive Unionist Group, as well as to suppress
its newspaper AZ Ahali. The referendum is also aimed at silenc-
ing those leftists who have opposed Sadat's restructuring of
Egypt's economic and political life.
The referendum will give Sadat broad discretionary
powers o define who is subject to prosecution. The People's
Assembly is to meet on 27 May to pass a special law defining
those activities that "corrupt political life."
The targets of Sadat's referendum apparently do not
intend to give up without a fight. Hilmi Murad, the New Wafd's
leader in parliament--who would probably inherit his party's
leadership if the old guard were removed--said that, regardless
of the vote, the New Wafd would not remove the leaders whom
Sadat indicated must go.
The New Wafd would resist first in parliament, then
in the courts, and finally in the streets if necessary accord-
ing to Murad. He asserted that the government would rig the
referendum and expressed the view that Sadat's crackdown would
destroy the President's careful effort to build an image of
Egypt as a tranquil, unified state pursuing a democratic path.
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The leftists also appear unwilling to acquiesce in
a a s crackdown. The Thursday issue of Al AhaZi, which was
confiscated before distribution, has been described as highly
inflammatory. The issue was signed by Khalid Muhyi al-Din, the
leader of the left party and one of the few survivors--along
with Sadat--of the group of officers that overthrew the mon-
archy in 1952.
Most Egyptians will probably accept Sadat's explana-
tion that Egypt's press and politicians need to be disciplined.
The targets of his attacks are few in number, represent polit-
ical extremes, and are without major resources. The left and
the New Wafd together hold fewer than 30 of the 360 seats in the
People's Assembly.
Sadat's course, however, is not without danger. More
politics ly aware Egyptians will see it as a major retreat
from his most popular domestic program--political liberalization.
The left and the right may be ready to force him to adopt openly
repressive measures rather than allow him to maintain only a
democratic facade.
I Perhaps most important, the legendary patience of the
Egyptian populace has shown signs of fraying under the burden
of high prices, consumer shortages, and apprehension over
Sadat's Middle East policies. Egyptian reaction if Sadat's
opponents take to the streets or if it becomes apparent that
the government has rigged the referendum is difficult to pre-
dict.
The New Wafd's popularity has not yet been tested in
e ec ions. Some observers think it is extensive and may include
support from the influential Muslim Brotherhood--which has had
a reputation for being prone to violence.
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 //President Balaguer's complicity in the mili-
tary's e ort to alter Tuesday's vote is becoming clearer.
Balaguer continues to condone the military's action and resist
mounting international pressure to get the military back to
the barracks and resume a fair vote count.//
I I Opposition candidate Antonio Guzman is determined to
avoid violence, but will probably not be able to prevent it if
Balaguer and the military continue on their present course.
There is little chance that Guzman will give up his claim on
the presidency as long as he believes that world opinion sup-
ports him.
party offices to begin ri ging returns. 1
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There is increasing evidence that Guzman was headed
tor vic ory when the military closed the electoral commission
with only a quarter of the votes counted. An :hour before the
takeover, a Balaguer supporter told the US Embassy that tal-
lies by the ruling party of roughly half the vote showed Guz-
man holding a commanding lead. He also stated that party lead-
ers had privately conceded a Guzman victory and ordered local
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 year, have caused serious shortfalls in food production in the
countries and vicinity. The UN-sponsored World Food Program
reported as recently as March that a minimum of 456,000 tons
of cereals are needed for Sahelian food relief, plus another
124,000 tons to meet emergency contingencies.
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SAHEL: Results of 1977 Drought
25X1 Gambian President Jawara arrives in the US today for
a 11-day visit. As current president of the Permanent Inter-
governmental Committee to Combat Drought in the Sahel, he will
be discussing aid for the Sahel with US officials and private
organizations. Erratic rainfall has again had a serious impact
on food production in the Sahel and neighboring parts of West
Africa. For the sixth year in a row, financial and food assist-
25X1 ance will be necessary from the internation donor community.
Adverse climatic conditions during the 1977-78 crop
Only 420,000 tons of food have been pledged so far,
, leaving an estimated deficit of 160,000 tons. Only about 192,000
tons of food had apparently reached the recipient countries by
the end of March; some of the countries are having trouble
meeting high transportation costs.
Five of the region's states--Mauritania, Mali, Upper
Volta, Niger, and Chad--historically have been largely self-
sufficient in basic foodstuffs. In Senegal, the relatively
large urban population relies on imported rice. Life from year
to year, however, is heavily dependent on the sparse rainfall
of from 25 to 60 centimeters annually.
Although the 5.2-million-square-kilometer Sahel is
qenerally considered stationary, the conditions that produce
it shift north and south. In some years there is enough rain
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for bountiful crops of grain far to the north.; in others, the
arid conditions of the Sahara move south and crops die, wells
dry up, and animals and people starve. The effects of the series
of droughts that be an in 1968 have spread as far south as
Benin and Ghana.
I The conviction and sentencing of Soviet dissident
uriy r ov yesterday came as no surprise. Orlov was convicted
of engaging in "anti-Soviet activity" and received the maximum
sentence of seven years in a Soviet labor camp with an addi-
tional five years of exile. Although Orlov's "crime" was his
leadership of the "Helsinki Group," no direct mention of that
was made during the trial. The prosecution focused on his dis-
semination of allegedly fabricated and slanderous information
about the Soviet Union.
I J Two Georgian associates of Orlov have confessed to
similar crimes" in a Tbilisi courtroom. The Georgians' con-
tacts with the US Embassy and with US reporters have received
particular attention from the prosecution in this case.
Soviet heavyhandedness in these trials and willing-
ness to implicate the US Government in alleged subversion are
indications of the regime's uneasiness with the dissident
movement and the international support for it. The severe sen-
tences are meant as an object lesson to would-be Soviet dissi-
dents and their supporters abroad.
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//China's industrial output reached an alltime
ig in the first quarter of 1978 as a result of the much im-
proved performance in critical energy sectors and in certain
key industrial provinces. The improvement stems in large part
from recent measures to lessen political influence in factory
management and to restore bonuses and other production in-
centives.//
I //The newly resurrected State Economic Commission
announced output gains over the first quarter of 1977 for coal,
crude oil, natural gas, and electric power. Shanghai--China's
largest industrial metropolis--claimed an output rise of 31.5
percent over the first quarter of 1977. China's railways re-
portedly carried 30 percent more freight than in the same
period last year.
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Top Secret
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Top Secret
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