CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 6
• Content Type: REPORT

AW AW AW AW AW AW AW AW AMPF
Annrnvarl Fnr Bahasa 7nn7/nR/1d ? rIA-RnP79Tnn97hAn,~mnnnlnnnR-A
r
r
ROUTING
TO:
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INITIALS
x
2
3
4
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPARE REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOMMENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
REMARKS:
FROM:
NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO.
DATE
Top Secret i' -1
1
1
25X1
1
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
Monday 15 May 1978 CG NIDC 78/113C
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
0
0
A Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO307000
10006-4
1
Top Secret 25X1 0
(Security Classification
AV A
(Security Classification) 25X1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30700010006-4
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30700010006-4
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
ZAIRE: New Katangan Attacks
//Katangan rebels launched new attacks in
ZairF's Shaba Province over the weekend in what may be a new
attempt to wrest the region from the government. The Zairians
reported yesterday that rebels controlled most of the mining
center of Kolwezi and were attacking Dilolo and Mutshatsha.
Government forces are offering some resistance and the Zairians
are flying reinforcements from the Kinshasa area. The Zairian
Government has appealed to the US, France, Morocco, and other
friendly powers for support. We cannot confirm Zairian aZZega-
tions that Cubans or other "whites" are in the rebel force.//
Reports from the Kolwezi area, derived mostly from
the Zairian military and western mining company officials, in-
dicate that a large group of Katangans-reportedly some 1,700
strong--attacked Kolwezi Saturday morningg. They apparently
captured most of the town as well as the airfield, where they
destroyed several Zairian Air Force aircraft. We have no clear
estimate of the size of the total Katangan invasion force.
//A counterattack by government troops re-
took one command post and a hospital in Kolwezi :but the Shaba
region military headquarters apparently is surrounded and running
short of supplies. Other Zairian units were reported to be re-
grouping northwest of the town for a counterattack, and Zairian
Mirage fighters have been flying sorties over the area.//
The Zairian Acting Foreign Minister said yesterday
that the Katangans had begun urban guerrilla warfare in Kolwezi
and that in view of the large civilian population--including
Europeans and Americans--it would be difficult for.the Zairian
forces to combat the rebels. At least 75 Americans are in the
immediate area of Kolwezi; there are no reports of casualties
among them.
of Katangans, including "white troops, entered the town yes-
terday morning, and that another small group was on its way west
to the border town of Dilolo. The Acting Foreign Minister, in
a meeting to brief US Ambassador Cutler and representatives of
other friendly countries and to solicit their support, repeated
the allegations of "white faces" with the Katangans.//
a smaii group
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30700010006-4
//He said that the rebels had also crossed
from Angola near Kasaji and that there was a troop concentration
with heavy weapons at Dilolo. The Minister said that some of the
monitored radio conversations between Katangan forces in Angola
and Zaire were in Spanish--indicating that Cubans were operating
on both sides of the border. We cannot confirm that Cubans or
other "whites" are with the rebels.//
//Thus far the Zairian military appears to
be offering more resistance than it did in the early stages of
the Katangan incursion last year. It is unclear, however, whether
the Zairians will be able to undertake a counteroffensive rapidly
enough and with sufficient forces to drive the Katangans from
Kolwezi.//
//The government is reinforcing its troops
in Lubumbashi with units from the Kinshasa area, some 1,500
kilometers northwest, to form a task force to liberate Kolwezi.//
In a briefing Saturday for the US and other Ambassadors
in Kinshasa, President Mobutu charged that the rebels had launched
their attack from Angola via Zambia. He added that he had sent
Zairian emissaries to Lusaka on earlier occasions to inform
Zambian President Kaunda of the rebel movements but Kaunda had
taken no action.
Mobutu alleged that the rebels had obtained Cuban,
Algerian, Soviet, and Angolan support and said that his gov-
ernment had asked the Soviets--and through them the Angolans--
to get the rebels to withdraw. At this briefing it was apparent
to Ambassador Cutler that Mobutu did not have an accurate grasp
of the seriousness of the situation in Kolwezi. Mobutu is now
apparently aware that the situation worsened in the ensuing
24 hours.
At yesterday's meeting called on Mobutu's orders,
the Acting Foreign Minister asked the representatives of the
US, France, Belgium, Morocco, and China for their governments'
support and assistance. In addition to these yet undefined
requests for assistance, the Zairian Government intends to
consult again with President Kaunda concerning the alleged
rebel use of Zambian territory.
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30700010006-4
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
Zaire also intends to apprise the organization of
African Unity an-1 the UN of the situation and request the
Congolese Gover_ nnent to use its influence to get the Katangans
to wiLhiraw. Zairian officials are probably hoping that their
allegations of direct Soviet and Cuban involvement and the
presence of Americans in the embattled region will induce the
US to support Zairian efforts to repulse the invaders.
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Monday, 15 May 1978
The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
ISRAEL: Interview with Chief of Staff
USSR-MEXICO: Portillo to Visit
MBFR: Talks Resume this Week
EGYPT: Referendum Next Sunday
FRANCE - WEST AFRICA: Military
GHANA-TOGO: Support for Ghanaian
MEXICO: Possible Gas Sale to US
MEXICO-FRANCE: Aircraft Offer
COMMON FUND: Efforts to Isolate US
Rhodesia
Comoros
Page 1
Page 2
Page 2
Page 3
Page 5
Page 6
Page 7
Page 8
Page 9
Page 11
25X1
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30700010006-4
ISRAEL: Interview with Chief of Staff
Israe Z's new Chief of Staff, Rafael Eitan, has stirred
up a public controversy by asserting in a television interview
on Thursday that the Arabs are still bent on destroying Israel
and that Israel must retain both the West Bank and the Golan
Heights. The US Embassy in Tel Aviv does not believe Eitan's
remarks signal a hardening in the Israeli negotiating position,
but that he was restating--in more forceful terms--the govern-
ment's stand. Eitan's views reflect the deep-seated suspicions
of the Egyptians and other Arabs still widely held within the
government and among the general public.
Israeli doves in the opposition Labor Party as well
as in t e Democratic Movement for Change, one of the governing
coalition parties, have predictably denounced Eitan for exceed-
ing his authority in discussing political questions and possi-
bly harming the negotiating process. Even the moderately conserv-
ative Jerusalem Post has taken Eitan sharply to task for chal-
lenging civilian authority and laying down the "terms on which
the armed forces" would defend the country.
Although somewhat embarrassed by Eitan's bluntness,
Defense Minister Weizman and Finance Minister Ehrlich have
come to his defense, presumably in part to avoid further
antagonizing hard-liners in their own parties. Eitan's views
have struck a responsive cord among many within the ruling
coalition who regard the opposition's criticism as hypocritical
and purely political.
Because the Chief of Staff has an excellent reputation
with the Israeli public, the government probably hopes to use
him to counter former Chiefs of Staff Rabin and Bar-Lev in the
Labor Party, who have been critical lately of the government's
military competence.
Eitan's comments have put Deputy Prime Minister Yadin
and other cabinet ministers from the Democratic Movement for
Change in a particularly awkward position. Dissenters in the
party have accused Yadin of deviating from party principles in
endorsing the government's more hard-line peace proposals. To
deflect some of this criticism, Yadin announced that he would
raise the interview at yesterday's cabinet meeting. He probably
made only, a pro forma complaint in an effort to-mollify the dis-
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30700010006-4
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
USSR-MEXICO: Portillo to Visit
//Mexican President Jose Lopez PortiZZo
ioz Z arrive in Moscow on Wednesday for a one-week visit de-
signed to strengthen bilateral relations and illustrate Mexico's
independence of the US. Mexico is interested in expanding eco-
nomic ties with the Soviets, and particularly in acquiring So-
viet oilfield technology.//
//The director general of the state oil
company, Pemex, is scheduled to accompany Lopez Portillo on a
visit to Baku, an important Soviet energy center. Further dis-
cussions may be held on a possible quadrilateral arrangement
involving Spain, Cuba, Mexico, and the USSR. Under this ar-
rangement the USSR would supply oil to Spain, which would pay
Mexico; Mexico in turn would supply a comparable amount of
crude to Cuba on the Soviet account.//
The delegation is also scheduled to visit Novosibirsk
to meet-with Soviet scientists who are directing oil explora-
tions in Siberia. The Mexicans may sign a scientific and techni-
cal exchange agreement there. Mexico is particularly interested
in Soviet technology for secondary recovery of petroleum.
Lopez
Portillo believes the Soviets will accept a long-term agreement
for the purchase of Mexican coffee. He wants Moscow to pay a
"commercial price" to maintain its large diplomatic presence
in Mexico. The Soviets may try to bargain for an even larger
diplomatic presence, including five additional consulates in
Mexico.//
Lopez Portillo is scheduled to meet with President
Brezhnev, who may use the occasion to sign Protocol II of the
Tlatelolco Treaty. Mexico has been the chief promoter of the
treaty, which establishes a nuclear weapons - free zone in
Latin America. Soviet signature at this time, on the eve of
Lhe UN Special Session on Disarmament, would cast Moscow in
the best light.
//The Mutual and Balanced Force Reductions talks
r,Gsume this week in Vienna after a month-long recess. The Warsaw
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
Pact is ZikeZy to respond soon to the NATO proposal offered
just before the recess--that provided assurances to the East
on the timing and size of Western reductions and no Longer de-
manded that the USSR make its withdrawal in the form of a tank
army in the initial phase of reductions.//
w Pact delegates said that the Western
/W
/
arsa
initiative would receive "careful study," and a ranking official
of the Soviet Embassy in Rome termed it a "noticeable step
forward."//
//The Warsaw Pact will handle its response and
further discussions on manpower data with an eye to the opening
of the UN General Assembly's Special Session on Disarmament on
23 May. At the UN the East will want to demonstrate that it is
seeking progress in the MBFR talks.//
//Meanwhile, representatives to NATO in Brussels
are disagreeing somewhat as they attempt to develop a Western
position on associated measures--steps to be taken in verifying
an MBFR agreement.and stabilizing measures. West Germany is
keenly sensitive to the political implications of certain pro-
posed measures, such as Eastern mobile and aerial observations
of West German territory, and is demanding that associated
measures be reviewed at the political level before they are
remanded to NATO's MBFR working group for technical study.
EGYPT: Referendum Next Sunday
In an attempt to silence his opponents, Egyptian
President Sadat has called for a referendum next Sunday that
could restrict their participation in the public sector.
Egyptian voters will be asked whether all those who
"call for principles contravening the teaching of religions"--
an obvious reference to the Communists--should, be barred from
key posts in the government, the press, and the unions. The
electorate will be asked to ban those leftists who opposed
Sadat after the death of former President Nasir and those who
took part in politics before the 1952 revolution, a stipulation
aimed at the reemergent Wafd party.
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30700010006-4
Sadat castigated the political opposition, the media,
the people's assembly, and other critics. He condemned the left
for retaining its clandestine style and branded the Wafd member-
ship as reactionary.
Sadat's attempt to silence his critics testifies to
Sadat's much vaunted democratization program. His government is
increasingly vulnerable because of a shaky economy and a falter-
ing peace initiative.
their effectiveness. The opposition has taken advantage of
The carefully constructed referendum is intended to
provide a veneer of democracy, from which Sadat will argue that
his liberalization process remains intact. Sadat's critics will
probably escalate their attacks to ensure that he cannot both
muzzle them and maintain democratic pretenses.
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30700010006-4
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30700010006-4
FRANCE - WEST AFRICA: Military
//The Mauritanians are reorganizing their
army for more effective use against the Polisario Front guer-
riZlas, The Moroccans, mean-
while, continue to strengthen their forces in Mauritania and
are now almost totally responsible for the protection of the
Zouerat-Nouadhibou railroad there. French aircraft have made
no further strikes since early this month, when Jaguars attacked
a Polisario column for two consecutive days and inflicted heavy
damage. The French may resume frequent air attacks against the
guerrillas. //
//Under the new Mauritanian organization,
tactical units an squadrons will be formed within existing
battalions and regiments. The smaller units will be highly
mobile, suitably armed to engage the insurgents, and capable
of independent but coordinated action.//
new structure is similar to the one developed y o torces
in the south last year; the Moroccans determined then that regi-
mental-sized units were too cumbersome to fight a guerrilla war
in the desert.//
//The Mauritanians have reorganized their
armed forces several times since the war against the Polisario
began in late 1975. Prior to the war, Mauritanian military
and paramilitary forces numbered less than 2,000 men; there are
now about 15,000 and that number is likely to increase. This
rapid expansion has resulted in a relatively inexperienced force,
and the lack of a seasoned officer corps has been keenly felt
at the tactical level. A French training mission arrived in
Mauritania last year to help correct this problem.//
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30700010006-4
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
//The Moroccans have committed over 8,000 combat
personnel to the defense of Mauritania and the Mauritanian-
claimed part of Western Sahara. Most of these troops are based
in the north and have assumed almost total responsibility for
the protection of the Zouerat-Nouadhibou railroad. The Moroccans
are building strongpoints for their troops and conducting patrols
along the rail line. The Moroccan presence is designed to free
Mauritanians for more aggressive actions against the Polisario.//
//The French resumed their aerial strikes
against the Polisario last week after an apparent five-month
hiatus. Officials in Paris admit to only one strike inside
Mauritania, on 3 May. The French, however, made a second attack
on 4 May in the Mauritanian-claimed part of Western Sahara at
Oulm Dreiga. They destroyed 12 vehicles and wounded or killed
an estimated 30 to 40 guerrillas. One of the attacking aircraft
was damaged but landed safely at Nouadhibou.//
//These attacks may presage the resumption
of frequent French air strikes against the Polisario.
of French forces in Mauritania, General Maffre, visited the
Moroccan command for Western Sahara in El Aaiun, and a decision
was made to place a permanent French liaison group with the
command. This may lay the basis for future coordinated actions
such as the airstrikes last week.
GHANA-TOGO: Support for Ghanaian
//Togolese President Eyadema has given po-
!.z sca asytum and some financial backing to a leading opponent
of Ghanaian leader Achea.mpong. Longstanding frictions between
the two countries ar: likely to be exacerbated.//
//Former General Afrifa, a popular figure
who led the campaign against Acheampong's proposed "union
government," joined a number of other Ghanaian political ref-
ugees in Togo last month.
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
//Afrifa played a key role in the overthrow
of leftist President Nkrumah in 1966 and was a leader of the
military regime that handed power back to civilians in 1969.
He opposes union government as a scheme to perpetuate Acheam-
pong's military rule and favors a return to purely civilian
government.//
Eyadema probably is helping Afriffa because he suspects
Acheampong was party to an alleged mercenary p:Lot to overthrow
him that the Togolese say they uncovered last fall. He no doubt
still fears that Acheampong may be supporting his enemies.
Acheampong has long been irritated because Eyadema
has supported Togo's Ewe tribesmen, who have nursed irreden-
tist claims against Ghana's Volta region for over 20 years and
have campaigned for reunification with their fellow tribesmen
in Ghana. He mistrusts Ghana's Ewes, who comprise one-third of
the Army and who have figured prominently in several plots un-
covered in recent years. Acheampong also faults Eyadema for
doing little to stem extensive cross-border smuggling that
benefits Togo at the expense of Ghana's hard-pressed economy.
MEXICO: Possible Gas Sale to US
//Mexico is still interested in selling
about 2 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas to the US at
$2.60 per thousand cubic feet. In the Zast,few months, several
Mexican officials have suggested. long-term supply contracts in-
volving food and feedgrain sales to Mexico.and oil and gas sales
to the US.//
//The Mexican Government. continues to in-
sist tnat it as an alternative use for the gas if it is not
sold to the US. President Lopez Portillo told Ambassador Lucey
that he had decided to go ahead with plans to have domestic
consumers use natural ga.s instead of fuel oil. Mexico would
then export fuel oil. We believe, however, that the Mexican
Government still hopes to reach a settlement with the US before
it forces domestic industries to convert to gas.//
I //By 1982, Mexico could use the natural gas
in ended sae to the US. About 1.4 billion cubic feet per
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
day could be used instead of additional fuel oil for expanded
industry and electric power generation. An additional 750 million
cubic feet per day could be used by converting existing oil-
fired power plants. Other less attractive options are reinjec-
tion of gas into oil and gas fields and sealing off gas fields
not associated with oil production.//
//If Mexico were to export to the US the
amount o natural gas at the price it has quoted, its foreign
exchange earnings would total about $1.9 billion annually. In
contrast, if Mexico exported about 330,000 barrels per day of
mostly residual fuel oil-the energy equivalent of 2 billion
cubic feet per day of natural gas--and if oil prices rose 6
percent annually during the years 1979 to 1982, annual export
earnings would amount to roughly $1.5 billion. Mexico also would
incur substantial investment costs for conversion.
//Mexico is likely to buy French Mirages or Alpha
Jets despite their high cost, according to the US defense at-
tache in. Mexico City. The Mexican Government apparently fore-
sees little chance of buying US fighters or planes with major
US components--such as the Israeli Kfir.//
//The French have sought to sell jet aircraft to
Mexico for the past six months; they proposed a mix of Mirages
(probably the F-1) and Alpha Jets to provide both a supersonic
air-to-air and a close ground support capability. The Mexican
purchase will probably cost over $300 million.//
has since looked at the US F-5, the Israeli Kfir, and several
French models.//
//Last December, Mexico requested 26 F-5 fighters
from the US. When it recently became apparent that political
complications in both countries would jeopardize the sale,
Mexico withdrew its request for the F-5s. It also considered
buying 10 to 12 Israeli Kfir fighters.//
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
//The French F-i is more expensive than the Kfir.
France sold F-ls to Ecuador last November for $10 million apiece.
The French probably would sell the Alpha Jet for $4.5 million
to $5 million each, a price slightly higher than that of the
US F-5.//
//The Mexican national defense budget has increased
this year, but it is nowhere near sufficient to cover a large
aircraft purchase. Mexico will have to extend payments over
several years and significantly increase its.future defense
budgets to make such a large aircraft purchase.
COMMON FUND: Efforts to Isolate US
//The developing countries are continuing their
deliberations over how further to isolate the US in the Common
Fund negotiations of the UN Conference on Trade and Development.
Negotiations aimed at establishing the Fund, which is intended
:'?.to help stabilize the prices of some raw materials, broke off
.:in December. The Fund is one of the key parts of the develop-
ing countries' demand for a "new international economic order."
The developing countries believe that they can cause the US to
change its opposition to use of a "second window" for the Fund
that would finance certain commodity development schemes. De-
veloping country officials in Geneva think that US policy is
Limited by strict Congressional restraints and hope that pres-
sure will be put on Congress to review the US position.//
//The majority of the industrialized countries--
but not the US--are now willing to consider a compromise in-
volving use of the Fund to finance certain kinds of development
projects, if. contributions to the fund are voluntary and the
scope of the development projects is carefully limited. Even
the West Germans, who have been the most steadfast in sharing
the US view opposing the "second window," are said to be recon-
sidering their position.//
//In hopes of isolating the US, the members of
the developing countries' organization, the Group of 77, have
been encouraging the view among the industrialized states?that
the developing countries would accept a compromise along these
25X1
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30700010006-4
1i.nes.l ~ the
developing countries' negotiating group really intends to call
for wandatory, contributions to a "second window" and a 25-
perc:. nt share of the entire Common Fund for development projects,
t,rms that would go far beyond what most industrialized countries
would accept. The developing countries recognize that publicly
expressing such an inflexible position would immediately lose
i:he support of many of the industrialized countries.//
//Members of the negotiating group agreed last
week to call foi a paper to review progress toward establishment
of the Common Fund and to hold a 10-day UNCTAD conference to
discuss financing, voting, and use of the fund. The group did
not review details of a strategy to divide the US and West Ger-
many at its meeting, but the developing countries' efforts to
press West Germany into abandoning support for the US view will
probably increase as the July EC summit approaches.
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30700010006-4
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30700010006-4
Bishop Muzorewa's United African National Council has
decided to remain in the Rhodesian interim government. The party
had debated fcr the last three weeks whether to withdraw from
the government over the firing of the black co-minister of
justice the party had appointed to the country's biracial min-
isterial. council.
After a reported eight hours of heated debate yester-
day, a UANC spokesman announced that withdrawal would be against
the interests of the country and cause the transition government
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30700010006-4
 Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
to collapse. Older party leaders apparently argued that
Muzorewa's enemies were using the issue to provoke the UANC
to withdraw, which would leave it isolated and powerless.
In order to demonstrate the UANC's anger over the
tiring, however, party leadcr.s decided that Muzorewa will not
appear at public meetings designed to promote the internal
settlement.
According to press reports, President Ali Soilih, the
socialist leader of the Republic of the Comoros, was overthrown
Friday in a bloodless coup. Details are sketchy, but apparently
Said Attoumani -a minister in the regime Soilih deposed in a
1975 coup--led the revolt with a group calling itself the "mili-
tary directorate." Soilih is reported to be under house arrest
and the capital of Moroni is described as calm.
It is unclear what motivations and ideological sympa-
thies the coup plotters have. Comorans, however, had grown pro-
gressively disillusioned with Soilih's inability to carry though
on promises of social change or to cope with the islands' near-
desperate economic situation and with his chronic abuses of
human rights.
Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
 PF AW A4 Approved For Release 2007/06/14 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010006-4
0 Top Secret
(Security Classification) 0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0 0
0 Top Secret 0
(Security Classification)
, Approved For Release 2007/06/14: CIA-RDP79T00975AO30700010006-4 jjW