NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030500010057-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 16, 2006
• Sequence Number: 57
• Publication Date: February 4, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAIL
Y CABLE
Saturday 4 February 1978 CG NIDC 78/029C
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Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Saturday, 4 February 1978.
I I The NID Cable is for a purpose o into mIg
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
GHANA:
Referendum Politicking
Page 2
CHAD: Situation R
eport
Page 3
ROMANIA: Ethnic P
roblems
Page 4
COSTA RICA: Elect
ion Preview
Page 5
ECUADOR: Presiden
tial Election
Page 6
BRIEFS:
Page 8
USSR-New Zealand
El Salvador
Indonesia
India-Pakistan
Nicaragua
orocco
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GHANA: Referendum Politicking
Politicking in Ghana is intensifying in preparation
for a national referendum scheduled for 30 March to determine
Supreme Military Council Chairman Acheampong's proposal for a
nonparty "union" form of government. His opponents face a dif-
ficult fight.
I IThe referendum is an outgrowth of Acheampong's prom-
ise to restore constitutional rule by July 1979 that he made
last summer in response to antigovernment demonstrations by
student and professional groups. in recent months, Acheampong
has been campaigning for approval of the union government which
he hopes to lead as its elected president. Numerous pro-Acheam-
pong front groups have sprung up--with considerable backing
from the regime--to support union government.
Anti-Acheampong forces late last month made their
first a ermined bid to oppose the union government by organiz-
ing a group called the People's Movement for Freedom and Jus-
tice. It represents the followers of several well-known, old-
line politicians and includes prestigious retired General
Afrifa, who headed the military regime that overthrew President
Nkrumah in 1966.
L The group could become a magnet for broader opposi-
ion. c eampong and his lackluster military regime remain
highly unpopular with student and professional groups, and the
momentum toward union government thus far has been largely be-
cause of the absence of an alternative, the disunity of opposi-
tion forces, and widespread popular apathy.
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 CHAD: Situation Report
Acheampong has the government media at his disposal,
and has not hesitated to use police and goon squads to disrupt
opposition rallies. He can still count on the support of the
armed forces, trade unions, most traditional chiefs, and many
leftist politicians from Nkrumah's old party. These groups
back union government, despite Acheampong's unpopularity, in
hopes of gaining their share of spoils in a future government.
the
besieged government garrison a aya- argeau had
is in imminent danger of being overrun by Libyan-supplied Tou-
bou rebels even though the Chadians were able to make an emer-
gency airdrop of ammunition yesterday.//
Largeau and captured a portion of the airstrip. Around 1,200
Chadians are defending against an unknown number of rebels.
The rebels have recoilless rifles, AK-47 rifles, heavy machine-
guns, and light vehicles. The French say they can confirm that
the rebels used surface-to-air missiles to down two Chadian
aircraft last weekend.
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The French have informed the US Embassy in Paris
that the rebels have breached the Chadian defenses at Faya-
The French are disappointed over what they consider
the poor performance of the Chadian defenders. They say the
Chadians fear the rebels and have not used the tactics the
French taught them.
I IThe French have flown a high-level military team to
jamena and are airlifting infantry weapons and light armored
cars to Chad for, use by relief forces that are moving north to
the garrison. An unspecified number of the 300 French military
advisers in Chad are accompanying the relief column. The force
cannot reach Faya-Largeau for several days. The French believe
that if the garrison holds out until relief arrives the siege
can be broken.
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//Should Faya-Largeau fall, the government will
e orce to withdraw its forces from the two remaining out-
posts in the north and leave the entire region under rebel con-
trol. This development might in the short run encourage rebel
groups in eastern Chad to step up dissident activity, which so
far has been minor. Government reconciliation efforts with one
rebel leader in the east could be frustrated.//
//While the threat of the insurgency has so
far kept Chad's ruling military council pulling together, its
unity is fragile. The loss of Faya-Largeau could increase back-
biting and dissension among members, and possibly threaten
President Malloum's pol tion.//
ROMANIA: Ethnic Problems
I IThe publication in the Western media of a letter
accusing he Romanian Government of mistreating its large eth-
nic Hungarian community is a serious setback to Romanian efforts
to play down its minority problem. The allegation of gross dis-
crimination further tarnishes the regime's human rights record
at a time when the Conference on Security and Cooperation in
Europe is meeting in Belgrade.
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 It also embarrasses Romanian President Ceausescu,
w no is scheduled to visit the US and Western Europe this spring.
Ceausescu had been hoping to get the US to act favorably on a
multiyear extension of most-favored-nation treatment.
Allegedly written by a former Romanian party func-
tionary o ethnic Hungarian background, the letter asserts
that th
e government has tried forcibly to assimilate the Magyar
minority, which comprises 8 percent of the population. The
letter connects this with mistaken political decisions result-
ing from the Ceausescu "personality cult."
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The wide publicity given the letter ma
y prompt the
Romanians to defend publicly their nationality policies. At
the same time, Bucharest may feel compelled to detain the
author on the charge that he has incited national animosities.
The status of the Magyars in Romania is still an
emotional issue with many Hungarians, and it has occasionally
hindered bilateral relations between Bucharest and Budapest.
The Hungarians have tried to press the Romanians on behalf of
the Magyar minority and may derive some advantages from the
new publicity on the issue in the West. During talks with
Hungarian party leader Kadar last summer Ceausescu agreed to
significant concessions facilitating Hungarian contacts with
the ethnic Magyar community in Romania. The Romanians have,
however, apparent stalled on implementing these agreements.
COSTA RICA: Election Preview
Costa Ricans go to the polls tomorrow to elect a new
pres2 ent, a 57-member legislature, and municipal officials.
As usual, the balloting is widely expected to be scrupulously
honest. The two presidential front-runners, both middle-of-the-
road candidates, are Luis Monge of the governing National
Liberation Party and Rodrigo Carazo, who heads the Opposition
Unity coalition. It will probably be a close race.
The biggest issue of the campaign has been continuismo--
our more years" versus "time for a change." Although the
National Liberation Party's candidate was reelected in 1974,
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that was the first time an incumbent party had won since 1948.
Costa Ricans generally believe the best way to keep their
government honest and efficient is to throw the "ins" out and
let the "outs" in.
Monge is primarily a party man whose main strength
is the well-organized, well-financed National Liberation Party.
His lack of government experience has caused many Costa Ricans
to view him as a political hack despite his carefully cultivated
image as a left-of-center progressive. Monge hasrelied
peea i ally
on the government's record, which is generally good,
in the economic sphere. His party has also promoted d a- osticf
far-reaching--and costly--development programs, ay of
have benefited the country's rural majority.
Far from opposing the government's economic programs,
the opposition coalition has promised to continue them, assert-
ing only that "we can do it better and at less cost." Carazo,
the coalition's candidate, is a far more attractive personality
than Mange, especially in radio and television appearances.
He enjoys substantial support within the business community
and has great appeal to city voters because of attacks
on
ac well
crime and other urban problems. He probably will also
with the large number of new young voters.
There are almost no differences in the two contenders'
foreign policy positions. Both want to continue Costa Rica's
present close cooperation with the US.
There are six other candidates; several are eet
miss
of the right or the left, and none has much popular appear
best estimate is that all the minor candidates together will
poll less than 20 percent of the vote. If no candidate wins
40 percent of the vo es there will have to be a runoff, but
this seems unlikely.
ECUADOR: Presidential Election
I I The Likelihood that the military will tamper with
Ecuador's presidential election next July has increased foZ-
Lowing the Radical Liberal Party's withdrawal on Monday from
a broad-based coalition designed to stop front-running presi-
dential contender Assad Bucaram. The military appears deter-
mined to prevent the election of the populist Bucaram, as it
did in 1972, because of the threat he poses to the interests
of both the military and the oligarchy.
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I The walkout by the Radical Liberals--the largest
party .in he 11-member Nationalist Constitutional Front--was
triggered by the selection of the Conservative Party's Sixto
Duran-Ballen, the mayor of Quito, as the coalition's presiden-
tial candidate. Duran-Ballen is widely considered the strongest
choice to oppose Bucaram, but Radical Liberal Party Director
Francisco Huerta refused to accept second place on the ticket.
Huerta evidently believed that with Duran-Ballen as the coali-
tion's standard-bearer, his own party would be seriously weak-
ened because many rank-and-file members would defect to Bucaram.
would be commander in chief of the armed forces.
Huerta told US Embassy officials last week that the
Radical Liberals now will attempt to join forces with the
Christian Democrats and the Progressive Conservatives in an ef-
fort to unite the center-left. He estimated that this group
would be able to finish second to Bucaram.
The Radical Liberals' withdrawal appears to have
dealt a serious blow to the government's strategy of defeating
Bucaram at the ballot box. Top Ecuadorean officials--who for
the past month have been giving the coalition behind-the-scenes
encouragement and financial support--are now likely to give
more active consideration to alternatives.
In a conversation with the US Ambassador on 18 Jan-
,,J
ident Poveda confided that his government might still
uary,
attempt to disqualify Bucaram by using a provision in the mili-
tary code stipulating that a military officer must have native
Ecuadorean parents. Following this logic, Poveda said Bucaram's
Lebanese parentage would disqualify him since, as president, he
ther option when it reorganized the Supreme Court.
should Bucaram win in July, the new ea o
cour --a ege y:. more tractable than his predecesssor--could be
prevailed upon to declare the results null and void and ask the
armed forces to form a new military government.//
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//The government may have reserved itself a fur-
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//Negotiations between New Zealand and the USSR
on Soviet access to fish resources in New Zealand's new 200-
mile economic zone are near conclusion.//
I //New Zealand's Prime Minister Muldoon told the
press this week that the Soviets had come around to his coun-
try's positions on two points not resolved during the first
round of talks in December: Soviet recognition of New Zealand's
control over two enclaves on the high seas enclosed by the
200-mile line, and recognition of New Zealand's right to de-
clare fishing zones around its Pacific island dependencies.
Foreign Ministry officials in New Zealand say the agreement
can be concluded between the two governments without a return
visit by the Soviet negotiating team.
A group of 30 to 40 workers armed with subrlachine
guns an molotov cocktails took over the United Nations Infor-
mation Center in San Salvador yesterday and is holding seven
UN employees hostage. The group probably is affiliated with
the leftist Popular Revolutionary Bloc, which forced the govern-
ment to grant wage increases last November by taking over the
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Ministry of Labor. The UN office director believes the workers
have succeeded in getting the publicity they wanted and will
soon leave peacefully--assuming that they are allowed to do
so bthe police, who have the building surrounded.
The Indonesian Government has lifted the ban on four
of seven newspapers that were closed two weeks ago for publi-
cizing the activities of dissident students and others opposed
to President Suharto's reelection next month. The papers were
permitted to reopen only after their editors agreed not to
publish any material denigrating the government, its leaders,
or their families--an obvious reference to the President's
family, which is widely accused of corruption.
he decision to remove the ban probably stems from
u arto s continuing desire to show firmness without giving
the appearance of running an authoritarian regime. The coun-
try's largest newspaper has refused thus far to go along with
the government's guidelines and remains closed, reducin the
impact of the government's gesture.
Indian Foreign Minister Vajpayee's three-day visit
to Pakistan, which begins on Monday, is the latest of the
Desai government's moves to improve relations with India's
neighbors. Since coming to office 10 months ago, Prime Minis-
ter Desai has succeeded in establishing friendlier ties with
Bangladesh and Nepal, and his government has carefully avoided
interfering in or publicly commenting on Pakistan's domestic
political problems.
VajpaYee probably will raise the possibility of ex-
panded economic ties--including a regional common market scheme
proposed by the Shah of Iran. Pakistan, however, views the
visit strictly as a goodwill gesture and does not expect signi-
ficant new economic ventures as long as India remains unwilling
to discuss a final settlement of the 30-year-old Kashmir dis-
pute.
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I IPakistani leaders--under strong domestic pressure not
to mace w at might appear to be concessions to India--are con-
cerned that the visit could result in a cooling, rather than a 25X1
warming, of relations. A proposed return visit to India by the
head of Pakistan's martial law government, General Zia, depend on how well the talks go with Vajpayee.
Nicaragua
//Nicaraguan guerrillas, who had been relatively
quiet since they staged raids in October, attacked two towns in
the southern part of the country early yesterday but were re-
pelled by the National Guard. Although the attacks posed no
real threat to the government, they came at a difficult time
for President Somoza, who is faced with a general business
strike.//
The raids were costly for the Sandinists
ni
;
ne or
more were killed and some of their more advanced weapons were
captured. At least six National. Guardsmen were
l
ki
a
so
lled in
the fighting. The Guard is pursuing the remaining guerrillas
as they flee into the mountains and toward the Costa Rican bor-
der.
//While the Guard has been relatively restrained
in handling a variety of demonstrations since the assassination
of journalist Pedro Joaquin Chamorro on 10 January, it will
show no
h
suc
restraint in going after the guerrillas.
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Morocco
I Moroccan and Soviet officials initialed agreements in
Moscow o Friday under which the USSR will provide $2 billion
in credits to help the Moroccans develop the Meskala phosphate
deposits over an eight- to 10-year period. The deal provides
for the construction of a railroad, road networks, and port,
storage, and mining facilities in Morocco.
Moscow will receive 10 million tons of phosphate rock
from Mes ala annually for 30 years as repayment for the construc-
tion loan and as barter for Soviet products.
I I According to the Moroccan press, the value of trade
and cre it transactions related to the agreement eventually
could rise to as much as $10 billion. This would move Morocco
into first place among the USSR's African trading partners.
Phosphate imports will support expansion of the Soviet fertili-
zer capacity.
I Negotiations on the project had dragged on for four
years; during the last year Morocco was holding out to get Mos-
cow to refrain from publicly supporting Algeria against Morocco
in the Western Sahara dispute. Continuing Soviet neutrality on
the issue presumably ' p Moroccan condition for finalizing the
agreement next month.
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