NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030500010028-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 16, 2006
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: January 18, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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Wednesday 18 January 1978 CG NIDC 78/014C
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State Dept. review completed (Security Classification
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DP79T00975A03050001002o2p Secret ?19
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 Approved For Rele
The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
25X1
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Wednesday, 18 January 1978.
senior US officials.
PHILIPPINES: Elections Scheduled
PORTUGAL: Possible Troop Reductions
TURKEY: Ecevit Government Approved
FRANCE: Alleged Electoral Fraud
USSR: Meat Shortages Persist
NIGERIA: Executive Presidency
NAMIBIA: Position on Elections
NICARAGUA: Effects of Chamorro's Death
BRIEFS:
France
TTCCD - ATr~r~-h Knrca
I I
Palestinians
Ghana
Argentina-Chile
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 Approved For Re
PHILIPPINES: Elections Scheduled
Philippine President Marcos expects that the elec-
tion of an interim legislative assembly, which he has sched-
uled for 2 April, will provide his regime with a capstone of
political legitimacy,
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The move is another cautious step toward "normaliz-
ing" the political process--a politically astute effort to
appear responsive to the public's concern for a return to rep-
resentative government. Marcos also hopes that by setting a
political campaign in motion now, he will be able to mitigate
pressures on human rights questions.
His most pressing problem will be the
d
nee
to devise
campaign rules and an election format that will allow opposi-
tion political groups to participate, while at the same time
ensuring that his supporters retain control over the newly
elected national assembly. Marcos in any event will retain the
power to issue presidential decrees overriding the assembly.
I the President
M;L a ine members to run for a legislative seat,
even those who have never run for office before. Some reports
suggest that he will publicly support them in their campaign
but at the last minute will quietly pull the rug out from under
several of them. This would enable Marcos both to reorganize
his cabinet and to demonstrate the "freedom" with which the
election was conducted.//
Marcos may also decide to hold the election on a re-
gional basis rather than in smaller electoral districts, where
opponents from pre-martial law days still retain pockets of
considerable strength. He might allow some relatively weak
antiregime spokesmen to be elected. The political opposition
remains fragmented at the national level, however, and even
leading figures like former President Macapagal have all but
lost- i- hei r fol 1 .
PORTUGAL: Possible Troop Reductions
//Portugal may be considering disbanding its elite
airborne unit because the Air Force lacks funds and modern
equipment, 25X1
The move would reflect increasing dissatisfaction in t e arme
forces with the level of military aid provided thus far by the
NATO aZZies. It may also be part of an effort to press NATO
members to act more quickly on Lisbon's request for military
equipment.//
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/Officially a part of the Air Force, the airborne
unit has had uneven relations with other units in the service,
which see the paratroop unit as an expensive problem-child com-
peting for limited Air Force funds. During a recent joint exer-
cise, some paratroop officers reportedly were disturbed by what
they saw as discriminatory treatment by regular Air Force com-
manders.//
I /In recent months, Air Force spokesmen have said
that unless assistance is forthcoming they will have to take
determined steps to keep their key forces operational, includ-
ing seeking aid outside the alliance. The Portuguese may use a
visit to Israel by an Air Force delegation, scheduled for later
this month, as part of their campaign to put pressure on their 25X1
allies. The delegation is ostensibly making the trip only to
observe Israeli units and equipment and possibly to discuss
aspects of the two countries' military relations.
TURKEY: Ecevit Government Approved
//Prime Minister Ecevit won a vote of confidence
yesterday in the Turkish National Assembly. His first priority
appears to be resuming negotiations on Cyprus by offering new
initiatives. He also hopes to meet with Greek Prime Minister
Caramanlis, both to discuss bilateral issues and to press for
more direct Greek involvement in the Cyprus negotiations.//
Ecevit's informal coalition held firm yesterday, poll-
ing 229 votes, three more than a majority. The opposition, led
by ex-Prime Minister Demirel, mustered 218 ballots against the
new government's program.
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 Approved
//Ecevit plans to be his own foreign minister
and has apparently won support from his coalition for his for-
eign policy. His program calls for maintaining good relations
with all countries and makes a point of the need for cooperation
with Turkey's neighbors, particularly Greece and Cyprus. His
initiatives on the Cyprus problem are likely to strike a re-
sponsive chord at home; Turkish politicians believe that some
kind of movement on this issue is essential if Turkey is to
solve other international difficulties.//
//The new Prime minister may have somewhat less
flexibility in dealing with domestic policy. Although there is
recognition within his coalition of the need to implement aus-
terity measures and eliminate political violence, the methods
for meeting these needs remain vague, and Ecevit is certain to
hear many different opinions from his colleagues.//
I I
FRANCE: Alleged Electoral Fraud
In the first major scandal of the French election
campaign, the Socialist and Communist Parties have charged that
the governing coalition is manipulating the votes of newly
enfranchised French citizens abroad to its own advantage in
electoral districts where the races are close. The governing
coalition has accused the opposition of doing the same thing
but has offered no proof. Should the ruling parties win a
narrow victory in March by virtue of such tactics--coming on
top of a more general and longstanding gerrymandering of elec-
toral districts--the Left's frustration and bitterness are likely
to become acute.
A new law, passed last June by an indifferent and
half-empty French National Assembly, provides that French voters
living overseas can register to vote by proxy in any metropolitan
district of more than 30,000 inhabitants, provided the number
of such registrations is not more than 2 percent of the total in
that district. Before passage of the law, voting requirements
were so restrictive that scarcely 15 percent of the 700,000 to
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850,000 eligible overseas voters were able to vote. The proxies
are turned in to overseas consulates and embassies and sent by
diplomatic pouch to the voting district.
I IPoliticians were alerted when 1,200 expatriate French
citizens living in the Ivory Coast registered to vote in the
same constituency of the southern town of Montpellier, a dis-
trict in which the race appears very close and in which the ex-
patriate vote will be crucial. Suspicion increased when 35 French
citizens living in Brazil opted to vote in an obscure Paris sub-
urban constituency, French citizens in Austria chose the 11th
district of Paris, and a satirical weekly published a telegram
from the French Ambassador in Gabon announcing the dispatch to
Paris of 1,650 blank proxies--presumably to be distributed wher-
ever the governing coalition is most in need.
Inquiries have been launched in Gabon, Ivory Coast.
Brazil, and Austria, and a court in Montpellier is looking into
the case there. In some municipalities, leftist officials have
rejected overseas registrations, leading to charges and counter-
charges. The government admits that there have been irregular-
ities in the Gabon case, but otherwise has defended its posi-
tion.
The opposition says it has considerable evidence of
fraud that it will make available to the courts. It can be ex-
pected to make the most of this as a campaign issue and also to
contest final election results in some districts in an effort
to force a new ballot.
The overseas vote, if judiciously distributed in con-
tests that are decided by a comparatively small number of votes,
could be crucial to the defeat or victory of quite a few deputies
and might even affect the overall outcome of the election. There
are 27 electoral districts in which victory was won in 1973 by
less than 500 votes.
The Socialist-leaning weekly Le NouveZ Observateur
has asserted that a shortage of 30,000 votes in the wrong places
cost the governing majority some 26 deputy seats in 1973 and
that the majority is determined to rectify that situation by
"dosing" certain districts. The Socialists maintain that seven
out of 10 overseas voters would vote for the governing coali-
tion, a percentage that explains the government's zeal--not
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illegal in itself--in trying to get out the expatriate vote.
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USSR: Meat Shortages Persist
25X1 A recent edition of Pravda published a letter from a
chemica.-~ worker in Ryazan who complained of being able to buy
only fatty pork in local stores. He offered several reasons
for this situation--rising incomes, fixed state retail prices,
and the poor 1975 grain harvest.
25X1 One of the letter-writer's proposed solutions was to
encourage expanded output by private farms in suburban as well
as rural areas. Because of restrictive official policies in re-
cent years, meat output by private farms has leveled off, de-
clining as a share of the total output from 35 percent in 1970
25X1 to 30 percent in 1976. The Pravda editors asked readers to of-
fer their own ideas on this "very important problem."
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Soviet industrial meat output during the first 11
months of last year was about 10 percent greater than during
the comparable period in 1976 but still below output in 1974
and 1975. Taking into consideration the rising population and
incomes as well as the generally greater expectations of the
Soviet people, the average consumer probably considers the meat
situation to be no better now than at the beginning of the de-
cade. The Pravda series probably is an attempt by the leader- 25X1
ship to reassure the public that it recognizes the problem and
to publicize the fact that it is not a local, easily correc
able phenomenon.
NIGERIA: Executive Presidency
Nigeria's civilian constituent assembly, which is
reviewing a draft constitution in preparation for a return to
civilian government next year, approved a key constitutional
provision last week for a strong executive presidency. The
speedy action clears the way for the assembly to tackle other
controversial issues.
Delegates from the Muslim north, which dominated Ni-
geria's first civilian government, were nearly evenly divided
on the question of an executive presidency. Those opposed
lobbied strongly for a return to the parliamentary system,
under which the more populous north had important political
advantages. The military government strongly backs the execu-
tive presidency as a way of dealing more effectively with Ni-
gerian regional, tribal, and religious differences that con-
tributed to the collapse of civilian rule in 1966.
Some Muslim delegates are also grumbling over proce-
dural aspects of the assembly debate that they say favor the
south and put them at a disadvantage. As the assembly proceeds,
there may well be additional public complaints by delegates
that could ultimately mar the acceptability of a new constitu-
tion.
The assembly also lowered the age limit for presiden-
tial candidates to 35, which could pave the way for young mem-
bers of the military regime--such as Brigadier Yar' Adua, the
number-two man and a northern--to run for the office. Head of
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State Obasanjo, a southerner with no professed civilian politi-
cal ambitions, has publicly said that no members of the regime
will play a part in a future civilian government, but he may be
unable to enforce the restriction.
a serious problem. The next test for Muslim interests is the
emotional issue of the draft's provision for a federal Islamic
court of appeals. Non-Muslim southerners and minority tribesmen
in the north say this proposal will give undue privileges to
Muslims. Other major issues to be addressed have no clear-cut
regional connotations;.they include calls for stronger guaran-
tees of press freedom and for socialist political and economic
guidelines.
is to be resumed this October, when the assembly is scheduled
to complete its review of the constitution. The assembly, which
includes numerous aspiring politicians, appears to be rushing
its work in the hope that the government will lift the ban ahead
of time to permit political parties to be organized in prepara-
tion for the series of elections that are supposed to lead to
the installation of a civilian government in October 1979.
Muslim unhappiness with the constitution could become
Formal political activity, now banned by the government,
//A senior official in South Africa's Foreign
Ministry told Ambassador Bowdler this week that Prime Minister
Vorster probably will unilaterally announce the date for a pre-
independence election, for a constituent assembly in Namibia at
the end of the month if the five-power Western contact group
fails to work out a settlement by then.//
//The contact group had hoped to bring represen-
tatives of South Africa and the South-West Africa Peoples Organ-
ization to New York this month for another round of talks on a
pre-independence program for Namibia, but so far it has not
been able to find a date acceptable to both sides.//
I //According to the Ambassador, Vorster may have
promised white Namibian political leaders or his cabinet that
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he would announce the election date during a no-confidence de-
bate scheduled to begin in parliament on 30 January. He will
probably postpone a final decision on an announcement until he
meets with his cabinet next Tuesday.//
//The decision will be influenced by a number of
-- Whether South Africa and SWAPO can agree on dates for
further talks.
-- The intensity of proposed Western demarches to persuade
South Africa not to announce an election date.
-- How the two parties react if the contact group makes
public its own proposals for a peaceful settlement in
Namibia.//
//If Vorster carries out his threat to announce an
election date, SWAPO will probably refuse any further partici-
pation in the negotiating effort. 25X1
NICARAGUA: Effects of Chamorro's Death
//order has returned to Managua, but the Zong-
term effects of the assassination of Nicaraguan newspaper editor
Pedro Joaquin Chamorro will depend on who is finally charged
with hiring the killers and how much of the charge the public
believes. President Somoza probably has been weakened, but he
remains in full control of the government.//
I reacting to skepticism about the
government's willingness to investigate thoroughly, Somoza said
in a news conference on Monday that he would hire international
investigators to help solve the crime if necessary.//
//Although Chamorro's own political following
was quite small, his murder appears to have prompted larger op-
position groups to pull back from plans for a "dialogue" with
the government. The assassination, however, has caused business-
men--until now largely on the political sidelines--and others to
renew their call for talks on the causes of violence and the
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means of democratizing the political system. With this addi-
tional support, the opposition is not likely to pass up its best
opportunity yet to press Somoza for concessions.//
//Leftist guerrillas, who have gained notoriety
in recent months by staging a series of attacks within Nicaragua,
may well keep up their pressure in hopes of further weakening
the Somoza government. We believe that Somoza, facing a somewhat
greater potential for political strife, will be receptive to re-
newed efforts to get the dialogue back on track. F 125X1
Excerp
ts f
ro
m a public opinion
poll p
ubl
ish
ed yester-
day show the F
rench
l
eft holding fairly
steady
at
51
percent.
and the governi
ng c
oa
lition dropping 3
points
to
44
percent,
the lowest scor
e it
h
as polled in about
a year
.
Among the leftist parties, the Socialists and Left
Radicals had 28 percent, the Communists 21, and the extreme
left 2. On the center-right, the Gaullists won 21 points, the
Giscardians 16, and the Radicals and Centrists 7. About 5 per-
cent of the vote went to the ecologists and other splinter
groups. As usual, undecided voters, about 20 percent of the
electorate, were not considered in the poll.
Further analysis of the poll must await more complete
data, but the apparent slump in the governing coalition's for-
tunes may mean that the months of bickering, coupled with the
electorate's strong desire for change, are taking their toll.
Divisions within the left are even more profound, of course,
but this has apparently not seriously discouraged voters who
want new faces and see the left as the only means of obtainin
social and economic change.
USSR - North Korea
Moscow radio announced on Monday that a party and gov-
ernment delegation headed by Dinmukhamed Kunayev had departed
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Moscow for an "official, friendly" visit to North Korea. Kunayev
is the party boss in Kazakhstan and is a member of the Supreme
Soviet Presidium and the Politburo.
Relations between Moscow and Pyongyang have been very
cool in recent years. Kunayev will be the first Politburo mem-
ber to visit the North Korean capital since Deputy Premier
Mazurov traveled there in 1971.
Palestinian West Bank leaders on Monday issued a
statement that strongly reiterates their opposition to Israeli
Prime Minister Begin's offer of limited self-rule for the occu-
pied territories. The declaration affirms that the Palestine
Liberation Organization is the only body authorized to represent
the Palestinian people during the negotiating process. It also
calls for self-determination, the establishment of an indepen-
dent Palestinian state, and total Israeli withdrawal.
The statement underscores the West Bank Palestinians'
goal of ending Israel's military occupation and returning all
the occupied territories to Arab control. The declaration was
signed by the mayors of all major West Bank communities, in-
cluding well-known moderates such as Ilyas Frayj of Bethlehem.
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PLO officials will cite the statement as further evidence of
the need for a clear PLO role in determining the future of the
occupied territories. F_ I
University students clashed with police in Accra. last
Friday on the sixth anniversary of the coup that brought Gen-
eral Acheampong to power. Students also demonstrated in two
other cities. The students were protesting Acheampong's misman-
agement of the economy and his campaign to become president of
an elected, non-party "union" government he has promised by
July 1979.
I IFurther student demonstrations are likely. The stu-
dents have been angered by the forceful police action in Accra
and by efforts of thugs belonging to a pro-Acheampong leftist
group to hunt down protesters.
Last spring, student unrest followed by strikes by
professional groups led to Acheampong's promise to restore con-
stitutional rule--a move that eased dissent and divided his op-
ponents. The US Embassy in Accra does not believe the students
are now strong enough to threaten the regime or Acheampong's
prospects for obtaining popular endorsement of his concept of
union government in a national referendum scheduled for March.
Argentina-Chile
I I Argentine President Videla has agreed to meet with
Chilean President Pinochet tomorrow in the western Argentine
city of Mendoza to explore ways to end the impasse in efforts
to resolve the Beagle Channel dispute. Both sides seem disposed
to accept a cooling-off period, but there are formidable road-
blocks to early resolution of the problem.
The Argentines evidently are responding to a Chilean
overture delivered by a special envoy of Pinochet's over the
weekend. Despite effort to resume mediation, Argentina appar-
ently intends to reject an arbitration award in Chile's favor
by the International Court of Justice. Unless the two sides
can find some room for accommodation, relations are y
to deteriorate further.
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