NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010098-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 11, 2006
• Sequence Number: 98
• Publication Date: December 12, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Monday 12 December-1977 CG NIDC 77/287C
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Monday, 12 December 1977.
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The NID Cable is for the purpose o in orming
senior US officials.
ITALY: Political Situation
PANAMA: Government Planned March
CHINA-BURMA: Teng's Foreign Trip
USSR: Agriculture Specialists Shifted
INTERNATIONAL: Bauxite Pricing
BRIEFS
USSR
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ITALY: Political Situation
Despite their Limited room for maneuver, Italian
politicians are debating whether to alter or replace Prime
Minister Andreotti's government, which has been in office
since August 1976. No consensus has emerged on what, if any-
thing, should be done. Although: many Christian Democratic poli-
ticians oppose further concessions to the Communists, the
party's principal Leaders do not seem particularly disturbed
that most of their proposals for change would carry the Commu-
nists a step closer to a formal share of power. Key political
Leaders may be probing in the meantime for US views on the
Italian situation.
No one is yet pushing hard for a change, but dissat-
isfaction appears to be growing in labor, business, and politi-
cal circles with Andreotti's Christian Democratic minority gov-
ernment, which relies for its survival on the parliamentary ab-
stention of the Communists and four other parties. While ad-
mitting, for example, that Andreotti's policies have helped
stabilize the lira, improve the balance of payments, and cut
inflation, many business and labor leaders oppose his plan for
continued economic austerity, arguing that it risks higher un-
employment and zero growth.
The ressures on And:reotti from political circles
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are more subtle and complex. On the one hand, the Socialists
and Republicans are arguing that Italy's problems require a
broadly based emergency government involving all of the major
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parties, including the Communists. On the other, some of Andre-
otti's Christian Democrats accuse him of making too many con-
cessions to the Communists.
Such complaints from the Christian Democrats seem,
owever, to be the exception rather than the rule. Although
they do not seem ready to accept the emergency government for-
mula, many key Christian Democrats appear resigned to growing
cooperation with the Communists.
As Italian leaders sort out their options, they may
be probing for US reactions to the growing accommodation be-
tween the Christian Democrats and Communists. For example,
Moro's ideas on future developments have been conveyed by an
aide who knew the information would probably reach US circles.
A Christian Democratic undersecretary in Andreotti's govern-
ment, moreover, recently arranged for Luciano Lama, chief of
the Communist-dominated labor confederation, to be present at
a dinner to which the US labor attache was invited. Lama took
the opportunity to argue forcefully that the Communists pose
no threat to Italy's Western orientation or democratic tradi-
tions.
Some indication of how the current ferment will af-
fect Andreotti may come this week when he meets formally'with
the top leaders of the three major labor confederations. The
unions, which recently mounted a major strike in Rome to pro-
test government policies, are threatening a general strike if
Andreotti does not agree to ease up on economic austerity.
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PANAMA: Government Planned March
//A women's march planned for today into the
Canal Zone to support US ratification of the canal treaties
marks Chief of Government Torrijos' first effort, since Pan-
ama's October plebiscite approving the treaties, to move cau-
tiously beyond rhetoric in pressuring the US.//
//Torrijos originated the idea for the march,
It is being carried out by a
sporadically active women's front for a Marxist group that co-
operates closely with the government. Torrijos' sister has re-
portedly helped organize the effort.//
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Newspaper estimates of 5,000 marchers seem too opti-
mistic. The demonstration has already been postponed once be-
cause of apparent organizational problems. The planners hope
to take advantage of nationalist: sentiments on today's anniver-
sary of the 1947 rejection by Panama of a military base treaty
with the US. 25X1
CHINA-BURMA: Teng's Foreign Trip
I //Chinese Vice Premier Teng Hsiao-ping ap-
parentLy has accepted an invitation to visit Burma next month.
The visit will mark Teng's first foreign travel since he re-
turned to office last summer and indicates that Peking is in-
terested in further improving official relations with Rangoon.
The visit also underscores China's growin~ involvement in
Southeast Asian affairs.//
I //Contacts between the Chinese and Burmese have
increased since Mao's death. Ne Win traveled to China twice to
raise the question of Chinese support to the insurgents, long
the principal obstacle to better relations between the two
countries. Teng Ying-chao, Chou En-lai's widow, visited Ran-
goon last February and said that past strains in relations be-
tween the two sides were due to the influence of the gang of
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I //Chinese apparently have also accepted a Bur-
mese invitation to follow up Teng Hsiao-ping's visit with a
high-ranking Chinese military delegation to Rangoon. This is
additional evidence that Peking is anxious to demonstrate that
it places a higher value on official relations than on support
of the insurgents.//
/Other Southeast Asian capitals, where the com-
mon view has long been that China's connections with the Bur-
mese rebels are an example of Peking's subversive intentions
in the region, will watch Teng's visit carefully for signs of
improvement in Sino-Burmese relations.//
I //Teng's coming trip seems to be part of a
pattern of increased Chinese activity elsewhere in the region.
In recent weeks, the Chinese have received visiting Vietnamese
Premier Le Duan and Cambodian Prime Minister Pol Pot. Vietnam-
ese Vice Foreign Minister Phan Hien left Peking on Wednesday
after a lengthy visit. Chinese Politburo member Chen Yung-Kuei
is now in Cambodia, following a recent visit there by Burma's
Ne Win. Kriangsak Chamanan, Thailand's new Prime Minister,
plans to visit Peking next year.//
tivity results from Chinese initiatives, Peking clearly sees
it as the best opportunity since the end of the war in Indo-
china to increase its influence in the region./
USSR: Agricultural Specialists Shifted
This year's disappointing Soviet grain harvest--which
//While it is unclear how much of this ac-
at 194 million tons falls 19 million tons below plan--has caused
Soviet planners to grant new incentives to increase the number
of agricultural experts at the farm ZeveZ. The plan may, how-
ever, faZZ victim to administrative foot-dragging.
]A joint party-government decree provides for the
long-term transfer of more specialists into middle-level man-
agement on both collective and state farms. The decree states
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that efficient agricultural production requires working-level
leadership by qualified specialists who understand both the
technology and the economics of farming. The decree is aimed
at bringing a large pool of agricultural specialists--now iso-
lated in quasi-administrative positions--into direct responsi-
bility for farm production.
I To make the shift attractive, farms can guarantee
the specialists their current salaries for up to two years.
Other incentives include living quarters made available "on a
priority basis" and the opportunity to purchase cars and motor-
cycles. Income after two years, however, will depend on the
output achieved by individual production teams. The specialists
will, in turn, control the bonuses their team workers win for
successful fulfillment of production goals.
force, compared with less than 5 percent on US farms, but work-
Agriculture uses one quarter of the Soviet labor
ers trained in modern farming techniques are in short supply.
Professionally trained agricultural specialists prefer the se-
curity of administrative positions or, in some instances, work
outside the agricultural sector. They have resisted production-
oriented farm jobs because these meant lower prestige and un-
certain income.
The new policy may meet some resistance at the local
level because many of the specialists have only limited prac-
tical expertise and are likely to be resented by experienced
team members. Quality farming techniques will still require
coping with a shortage of skilled workers needed to operate
and maintain modern farm equipment. The success of the program
will also be hampered by the chronic shortage of essential ma-
terial--machinery, equipment, buildings, and chemicals. 25X1
INTERNATIONAL: Bauxite Pricing
The International Bauxite Association met in Jamaica
this week and adopted a pricing formula that will set the aver-
age delivered price of bauxite in the US and Canada next year
at a minimum of $24 per ton. The agreement, representing the
IBA's first concerted pricing action, could mean slightly higher
costs for alumina (refined bauxite) to US aluminum companies
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next year. The magnitude of the price rise will depend on how
Australia interprets the accord. Australia's bauxite prices to
non-US markets will almost certainly :rise in any case.
Although the accord does not cover alumina directly,
the IBA clearly hopes that it will induce Australia to boost
its alumina price substantially. Australia does not sell baux-
ite to the US because the transportation costs are too high.
The accord caps a four-year effort primarily by the
Caribbean producers to induce Australia to bring the price it
charges the US for alumina more nearly in line with their prices.
These countries, in individual tax actions, have more than
doubled their charges for bauxite and alumina since 1973. Other
producers, including Australia,, have increased prices more
gradually.
Australia now has 24 percent of the US market for
these commodities, compared to only 19 percent in 1973. Its
lower price for alumina--25 percent below that of Jamaica, the
other main US supplier--accounted for this increase. Conse-
quently, the Caribbean producers' share of the US market fell
from 70 percent in 1973 to 54 percent.
The present IBA pricing action is moderate, reflect-
ing a softening in the demand for aluminum because of lagging
economic recovery in the industrial nations. The US currently
is paying an average $30 per ton for imported bauxite. The mem-
bers apparently hope that the present agreement will set the
stage for further producer action when the aluminum market is
stronger.
Although IBA members control 75 percent of world
bauxite production, they are unlikely to undertake cartel-like
actions such as restricting supplies to raise prices. The IBA's
charter specifically prohibits such action. Moreover, these
countries' control of bauxite supplies is eroding as production
is developed in countries like Brazil that so far have been
unwilling to join.
Members voting on the price action were Australia,
the Dominican Republic, Ghana, Guinea, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica,
Sierra Leone, Surinam, and Yugoslavia. Indonesia did not attend.
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The Soyuz-26 spacecraft, piloted by Air Force Lt.
Col. Yuriy Romanenko and civilian flight engineer Georgiy
Grechko, successfully docked with the Salyut-6 space station
early yesterday. According to TASS, So uz-26 docked with the
station's "second docking assembly."
clude "maintenance, inspection, checking, and testing of the
other docking assembly. "
TASS reported that the Soyuz-26 mission would in-
was the Soviets' t it
manned space snot is year an second space launch in
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