NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010084-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 10, 2006
• Sequence Number: 84
• Publication Date: December 3, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

r
1
FROM: NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO, DATE
CIA-RDP79T00975AO30 WISRfet 1,11-9
(Security Classification)
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Saturday 3 December 1977 CG NIDC 77/280C
w
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
NAMEANAD DATE INITIALS
DIRECT REPLY
DISPATCH
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A -
0 'JAW AW AW "r AW AW AW AW AW
RECOMMENDATION
RETURN
SIGNATURE
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010084-1
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010084-1
 Approved For
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Saturday, 3 December 1977.
The NID Cable is for t e purpose o intorming
senior o icials.
CONTENTS
RHODESIA: Political Meetings
ZAIRE: Military Step-up Unlikely
NIGERIA: Constitutional Review
ALBANIA: Sharp Attack on China
CHINA: Emergency Food Reserves
SPAIN: Basque Autonomy Statute
ITALY: Communist Vote on NATO
BRIEFS:
USSR-Angola
USSR
Thailand-Vietnam
Page 3
Page 4
Page 5
Page 6
Page 7
Page 8
Page 9
Page 10
Approved ForiRelease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A039400010084-1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010084-1
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010084-1
 Approved For R4
RHODESIA: Political Meetings
//The Rhodesian nationalist Patriotic Front
a iance will begin another unity meeting in Maputo this week-
end, but ZittZe progress toward cooperation is ZikeZy between
the factions headed by Joshua Nkomo and Robert Mugabe. Rhodesian
Government representatives began settlement talks with moderate
nationalist leaders yesterday in Salisbury.//
//The Front leaders probably will discuss how
to respond to the government-sponsored settlement talks. At the
initial procedural session in Salisbury yesterday, several of
Smith's cabinet ministers met with the deputy leader of Nda-
baningi Sithole's nationalist faction and Chief Chirau, who
leads the government-sponsored Zimbabwe United People's Organi-
zation. Sithole is on a trip to the US and Europe, and probably
will join the negotiations when he returns to Rhodesia later
this month.//
//Bishop Muzorewa's African National Council
is boycotting the settlement talks during a week-long period of
mourning he declared in honor of those killed in the raids into
Mozambique. Muzorewa is likely to join the talks after the
mourning period end.
Approved Fair Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T0097514030400010084-1
 Approved For Ro
ZAIRE: Military Step-up Unlikely
It now appears that the National Front for the Libera-
tion of-the Congo will not step up its guerrilla activities
against Zaire soon, but we believe the exiles remain intent
on trying to re-enter Zaire and to cause the downfall of Zair-
ian President Mobutu. The exiles, who are in Angola, are out-
numbered by Zairian Army units in Shaba Region and are not re-
ceiving the aid they desire from Angola. The Front will prob-
ably continue small-scale attacks and may seek to exploit
Zaire's economic problems and worker unrest.
I I The Zairian military had expected the Front, led by
former gpndarmes from the old Katanga Province, to go on the
offensive after the onset of the rainy season in October in
Shaba Region. So far, however, there has been no discernible
increase in the Front's low-level, sporadic cross-border activ-
ity.
I The US Embassy in Zaire reports that Mobutu's army
has improved its preparedness in western Shaba, which the exiles
easily occupied last March prior to a Zairian-Moroccan counter-
offensive. The reorganized Zairian Army is maintaining an as-
sertive presence in the border area and is conducting regular
patrols and air reconnaissance. The Embassy also points out that
the relative strength of the two forces--about two to one against
the Front--and other factors suggest that the exiles are unlikely
to launch a major guerrilla offensive in the near future. The
Embassy also believes that the Zairian Army is now capable of
containing attacks by the Front.
I The Front also has problems in northeastern Angola.
It is burdened by the thousands of sympathetic refugees from
western Shaba, who fled to Angola to avoid the advancing Zair-
ian Army as members of the Front withdrew from the area last
spring. Competition for scarce food has led to incidents be-
tween the Front and refugees on the one hand, and Angolan Gov-
ernment and army authorities on the other.
I I Another problem for the Front in Angola is the pres-
ence o about 1,200 troops of the insurgent National Union for
the Total Independence of Angola. The UNITA troops have moved
into position to harass the Front; Mobutu has offered materiel
aid to UNITA in exchange.
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A03q400010084-1
 Approved Foti
The Zairian military believes that a joint Cuban-
Angolan offensive will soon be launched to clear the UNITA
troops from the border area. The Zairians expect the Angolans
to use the Front to try to prevent the UNITA troops from re-
treating to sanctuary in Zaire. The Front's participation in
such an operation would further delay its attempts to move
against the Mobutu government.
The Embassy's latest assessment is in line with the
conclusion drawn earlier by UNITA officials, who believed that
the exiles would be unable to mount an offensive during the
next several months.
NIGERIA: Constitutional Review
en
assembly is to begin a section-by-section examination of the
document. The assembly is scheduled to complete its review by
October 1978.
The review of Nigeria's new draft constitution
ters its second phase on Saturday when a 232-member civilian
The first phase of the review process, a general de-
bate, resulted in the identification of three major issues that
must be resolved. The first of these that will now be taken up
in committee is the provision in the draft constitution for a
strong president. The issue has proven less contentious than
some observers expected, and the provision seems likely to be
accepted. Opponents, some voicing fears that a strong president
would inevitably exercise dictatorial powers, appear to favor a
parliamentary government like the one the country had immediately
after independence, because they believe this would allow them
greater political opportunities.
I
The most emotional and divisive issue, however, is
_J
the draft constitution's provision for a federal Islamic court
of appeals. The proposal has stirred ethnic and regional sensi-
tivities; most non-Muslim southerners think it would give un-
warranted special privileges to the Muslim north. Unless a
25X1
Approved Fo Release 2007/03/07: CIA-RDP79T00975
 Approved For RO
compromise is reached, the assembly could be deadlocked and the
military forced to intervene even though it has promised civilian
rule in 1979. The civilian eagerness for power, however, may pro-
vide sufficient incentive to paper over differences.
The third unresolved issue surrounds the draft char-
ter's provision to expand press guarantees. Some assembly mem-
bers who are also journalists favor greater press freedoms.
No serious challenge to the draft provision for a
mixed economy has yet been mounted. Left-wing delegates would
like the new constitution to declare socialist economic goals
for Nigeria.
ALBANIA: Sharp Attack on China
The Albanian leadership has launched its most vit-
riolic attack to date on China. The attack was prompted in part
by China's recent establishment of party ties with Yugoslavia.
A major policy speech by Albanian Premier Shehu on
Tuesday contained an unusually strong personal attack on Yugo-
slav President Tito. The speech came one day after the publi-
cation in Peking of a Chinese telegram addressed to the Yugo-
slav party and government. The Albanian Premier described all
those who reconcile themselves with the Yugoslav leadership as
"revisionists." The Albanians have previously refrained from
labeling the Chinese revisionists.
Shehu also attacked the "three worlds" theory--China's
basic foreign policy tenet--as counterrevolutionary and having
originated with Trotskiy, Bukharin, and other outcasts of the
Communist world.
Shehu is the highest ranking Albanian official to at-
tack the Chinese line openly. His words probably reflect pol-
icies adopted at the last plenum of the Albanian Central Com-
mittee in November. The speeches delivered at the plenum, in-
cluding a report by party leader Enver Hoxha on the state of
the Marxist-Leninist movement, have yet to be published by the
Albanian media.
Approved For ReI4
 Approved For R4
I ome of Shehu's stronger words were directed against
the Chinese leadership's alleged support for the interests of
the US and Western Europe. At the same time, he pulled few
punches in castigating Soviet "social imperialism." The tone of
Shehu's remarks seemed to confirm Albania's continued opposi-
tion to establishing ties with the US or the USSR despite its
deteriorating relations with China.
Chinese officials, while admitting to ideological dif-
ficulties with the Albanians, have said that they will not let
such problems interfere with state-to-state relations. Peking's
treatment of the 33rd anniversary this week of the founding of
the present Albanian regime appears to be an effort to put the
best face on the deteriorating relationship and a demonstration
in propaganda jargon of the existence of tension between the
two countries.
Two high-ranking Chinese party officials attended an
Albanian Embassy reception in Peking celebrating the anniversary,
but Chinese party chairman Hua Kuo-feng sent a decidedly cool
greeting to Albanian party and government leaders. In its text
the message contained no mention of the leadership of Hoxha
and stressed Peking's continuing desire only to maintain
friendly relations between the Albanian and Chinese peoples--a
certain sign in Communist propaganda of strains.
The publication by Peking in early November of a
lengthy ideological defense of the "three worlds" concept also
suggests that Albanian criticism is being felt by the Chinese,
who still provide important economic assistance to Albania.
CHINA: Emergency Food Reserves
//Failure of the Chinese grain harvest to keep
pace with population growth in 1976 and probably also in 1977
appears to have affected China's goal for increasing food re-
serves. Since 1974, national emergency food reserves reportedly
have been increased by only 10 million tons, far short of the
rate required to achieve the planned 1980 goal.
gency food stores currently total 50 million tons, which is 20
million tons short of the amount China considers necessary in
case of war.//
Approved For
 Approved For ReI4
//The national food storage program was estab-
lished in 1969, when China's grain stocks had been depleted be-
cause of the Cultural Revolution and the reduced 1968 harvest.
A goal of 40 million tons for state grain reserves, the major
component of food reserves, was announced in 1970. The Chinese
asserted that this goal was achieved in 1974. As of 1974, Chi-
nese plans reportedly called for an 80-million-ton reserve to
be attained by 1980.//
//Grain reserves are stored by the state, the
communes, and the production brigades. Most of the grain re-
serves appear to be stored and maintained adequately in decen-
tralized and dispersed facilities. In addition, families in
agricultural areas reportedly are required to store 50 kilograms
of food per family for emergency use; the authorities stress
local self-sufficiency. Grain storage is dispersed over a wide
geographical area for "strategic reasons" and to minimize
transportation overloading during an emergency.//
Grain reserves apparently are stored for at least
one an possibly three years or more, whereas the small amount
of stored perishable foodstuffs is replaced more regularly.
Great emphasis is placed on drying grain to a safe 12- to 12.5-
percent moisture content and on treating it with pesticide.
These measures are effective against microbial spoilage and in-
sects.
SPAIN: Basque Autonomy Statute
I The draft statute, approved last weekend, to provide
provisional autonomy for the Basque provinces will make a sig-
nificant contribution toward stabilizing the political situa-
tion in Spain's troubled northern region. The statute, which
was hammered out by the government and a Basque negotiating
team, is likely to be promulgated by decree in the next few
days. Similar legislation for Catalonia was passed in October.
Autonomy will be largely symbolic in both the Basque
country and Catalonia until the powers that are to be trans-
ferred to the new regions are specified in the new national
constitution.
Approved For Rel
 Approved For
Several thorny problems on the Basque case remain. A
decision on including the province of Navarra in the Basque
ion will be left to the deeply divided population of that
re
g
province. The sensitive issue of the composition and super-
vision of local police forces was also postponed.
In Catalonia Josep Tarradellas, the president of the
recently reestablished regional government, will announce the
composition of his government today. Because of the strong show-
ing made by the Catalan branch of the Communist Party in the na-
tional parliamentary election last June, the regional govern-
ment may include at least one Communist--a test case for mili-
tar tolerance of Communist participation in local government.
I
ITALY: Communist Vote on NATO
The Italian Communist Party has formaZZy endorsed
Rome's membership in NATO in a Chamber of Deputies vote on
foreign policy. The Communists since 1972 have claimed to sup-
port NATO, but the vote marks the first time they have formaZZy
joined the traditional governing parties in expressing support
for Italian participation in the Atlantic Alliance. The reso-
lution will add to pressures for a larger, more direct Commu-
nist role in the governing process.
This is the second case in recent months of formal
agreement on foreign policy between the Communists and other
parties. In October, the Communists joined in a Senate resolu-
tion on foreign policy. It was far less detailed, however, and
avoided any specific reference to NATO. Moreover, only a hand-
ful of senators actually voted for that resolution; the latest
document was approved by about 80 percent of the deputies.
I The resolution, which cites the Atlantic Alliance
and the E as "the fundamental terms of reference of Italian
foreign policy," was passed after a speech by Foreign Minister
Forlani, in which he emphasized the importance of both NATO
and the EC to Italy. He called NATO the "heart of Italy's
foreign policy" and termed "irreversible" the country's mem-
bership in both NATO and the EC.
Approved For
 Approved For Rel
As with the earlier Senate resolution, the Communists
will point to the Chamber document as evidence that the govern-
ment program agreement negotiated last summer has been expanded
to include foreign policy. The Christian Democrats will have a
hard time refuting that claim because, unlike the Senate state-
ment, the Chamber resolution was formally approved in advance
by high-level leaders of the six parties involved in the nego-
tiations last summer.
Meanwhile, the resolution is likely to aggravate in-
ternal problems in both major parties. It will cause concern
among conservative Christian Democrats upset over the govern-
ment's apparent drift toward an accommodation with the Commu-
nists. The Communists' more orthodox supporters, on the other
hand, will see the resolution as another example of how the
current leadership is diluting the party's revolutionary
identity.
I uIn any event, the official reaction of most parties
has been positive. The official journal of the governing
Christian Democrats notes that the vote established a broad
consensus "bound to strengthen the position of Italy" in the
foreign policy field. Politicians on the left are likely to
agree with the Socialists, who are arguing that the vote re-
moves another barrier to the Communists' eventual participation
in the government.
USSR-Angola
A Soviet delegation led by Politburo member Kirilenko
arrives in Luanda today to attend the first national congress
of the ruling Popular Movement. It is unusual for the Soviet
party to send a Politburo member to party congresses outside
Eastern Europe. Sending Kirilenko, who is General Secretary
Brezhnev's chief deputy, is a significant indication of Mos-
cow's continued support for President Net). 25X1
Approved For RO
 Approved For ReI4
On the eve of the reconvening of the US-USSR Working
Group on the Indian Ocean, Pravda on Thursday called for de-
militarization in the Indian Ocean and establishment of a zone
of peace there. Last month the Soviets expressed support for a
UN General Assembly resolution on the creation of a zone of
peace and called for the elimination of all foreign military
bases in the Indian Ocean area.
The Pravda commentary was generally optimistic about
the prospects for an agreement on the reduction of US and Soviet
forces in the Indian Ocean and implied that such progress as
has been made is due to repeated Soviet prodding of the US. At
the same time, it repeated Moscow's assertion that the US fa-
cility at Diego Garcia continues to impede efforts to establish
a zone of peace.
The Soviets have long pushed these lines, but Moscow's
support for the UN action and the Pravda commentary closely
follow the loss of the Soviet base at Berbera and may well in-
dicate that the Soviets are concerned over their weakened po-
sition in the area and in their negotiations with the US.
Thailand has announced the "complete normalization"
of diplomatic relations with Vietnam. Relations were estab-
lished in August 1976, but former Prime Minister Thanin's anti-
Vietnamese stance embittered relations and prevented the open-
ing of embassies.
Approved For Rel
 V w
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
roved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010084-1
Top - -ecret
(Security Classification)
Top Secret
(Security plassi eationj elease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30400010084-1
Aw 'Aw
Air
J