NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010054-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 8, 2006
• Sequence Number: 54
• Publication Date: November 15, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE 0
Tuesday 15 November 1977 CG NIDC 77/265C
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 Approved Foti
25X1 National Intelligence Daily Cable for Tuesday, 15 November 1977.
T e NID Cable is for e purpose o informing
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
CHINA-US: Public Criticism
EGYPT-ISRAEL: Sadat is Willing
USSR: Western Communist Parties
NIGERIA-RHODESIA: Garba's Policy
WEST GERMANY: Nuclear Industry
ECUADOR: Elections Postponed
CUBA-FRANCE-MOROCCO: Warning
GUYANA: Sugar Strike Stalemate
USSR: Ultra High Voltage Lines
SOUTH KOREA: Prisoner Release
BRIEFS
South Africa
USSR
Afghanistan
Portugal
North Korea - Japan
Philippines
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CHINA-US: Public Criticism
The increase since August in criticism of the Carter
Administration in the Chinese media represents the most sus-
tained Chinese public complaining about the US since the end
of the Vietnam war.
trations over recent developments in us-soviet relations by
giving its propagandists license to be more open and personal
in their criticism of the Carter administration. Chinese prop-
agandists have refrained from criticizing President Carter and
other top administration officials by name, however, and in
this sense the recent criticism has not exceeded the level
of that directed against the previous administration.
For the most part, the criticism has focused on such
su sects as Presidential Review Memorandum-10, the joint US-
Soviet statement on the Middle East, and most particularly the
improvement in the atmosphere surrounding the Strategic Arms
Limitation Talks. The Chinese appear to see these developments
as part of a dangerous trend toward closer US-Soviet coopera-
tion.
_JPeking has signaled its unhappiness by broadcasting a
series o reports that juxtapose official US policy statements
with critical commentary from the Western press and from the
Carter administration's domestic critics. Last Wednesday, for
example, Chinese'radio broadcasts cast in an unfavorable light
State Department Special Adviser Marshall Shulman's testimony
to a Congressional subcommittee.
The broadcasts contrasted excerpts from Shulman's
testimony with tough anti-Soviet statements contained in a
paper delivered recently by former Under Secretary of State
Eugene Rostow. Chinese propagandists used the same technique
in their coverage of President Carter's address to the UN
General Assembly and his speech in Des Moines.
Peking appears to be taking out its rus-
Two recent reports in the Chinese media appear to go
beyond past practice. Last Wednesday, Peking broadcast a report
noting the cancellation of President Carter's planned trip
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abroad, and then gratuitously cited an editorial that appeared
in a West German newspaper giving an unfavorable review of the
President's first 10 months in office. This was the first Chi-
nese criticism not linked directly to US-Soviet dealings.
On 30 October the authoritative Chinese Communist Party
newspaper People's Daily printed an article that appears to be
directed personally at President Carter. The article discusses
the supposed tenets of "certain religious believers," observes
that "man's affairs are far more complex than the religious
dream world," and concludes with a diatribe against those who
attempt to "appease" ,the Soviets. The Chinese have been warning
about an alleged "trend of appeasement in the West" with in-
creased urgenc since the controversy over PRM-10 began in
early August. 25X1
EGYPT-ISRAEL: Sadat is Willing
Egyptian President Sadat's statement in a US teZe-
vision interview Zast night that he is willing to go to Jeru-
salem within a week adds substance to what may well have be-
gun as an exchange of rhetoric between Sadat and Israeli Prime
Minister Begin. Yesterday, Begin said he would issue an invita-
tion to Sadat through the US embassies in the two countries
and would cancel a trip to the UK next weekend in order to re-
ceive Sadat.
I Although both sides are now treating the prospect
of such an unprecedented visit more seriously, there is still
considerable posturing by both. It is possible that Sadat is
using the exchange with Begin as a way of pressing the Syrians
and Palestinians to be more flexible on procedural matters in
order to arrange terms for going to Geneva. Moreover, the
Egyptian press, attempting both to reassure other Arab countries
and to avoid any misunderstanding in Israel, has been emphasiz-
ing that, if any such visit takes place, Sadat will be speaking
for all Arabs and that no separate Israeli-Egyptian peace
settlement is possible. 25X1
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USSR: Western Communist Parties
25X1 the ceremonies commem-
orating the Futh annz e y er Revolution in Moscow
25X1 indicates that the gap between the Soviet par y and the Euro-
eommunists is not narrowing.
on 2 November supports the claim that little of substance was
changed. Berlinguer rejected the notion of "leading and led
parties," and said that the Italian Communists wanted to create
a society that would "guarantee all personal and collective
freedoms, the nonideological nature of the state, and the possi-
bility of the coexistence of different parties."
The published text of the speech Berlinguer delivered
I IThe Soviets presumably could have accepted Berlinguer's
defense o his party's independence, since they ritualistically
deny any claim to leadership over the international movement.
Berlinguer's support for "pluralism" and for a "nonideological
state," however,:. are clearly sensitive points for Soviet leaders,
whose power rests on a one-party dictatorship and who seem to
feel themselves beset by external and internal critics.
25X1
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I uIn spite of Brezhnev's vocal indignation, he could
hardly have been surprised by Berlinguer's failure to mention
these two Soviet shibboleths. The Italian party's efforts to
distance itself from both concepts are well established. Brezh-
nev's uncharacteristic stance may have had something to do with
the intricacies of Soviet politics and with the presence of
Suslov, the Soviet party's senior spokesman on questions of
ideology, who has publicly and privately maintained an uncom-
promising attitude toward the Western Communists.
I I In spite of this exchange, there is no sign that the
Soviets want to push the quarrel with the Italian Communists.
the Soviets considered Berlinguer to be a "good adversary"
and went on to wish the Italians luck in their efforts to gain
power. The Soviets presumably do not want to push the Italians
into the position of open hostility already occupied by the
Spanish Communists.
Berlinguer is benefiting domestically from his refusal
to budge on those points. In Italy, his speech is generally
viewed as a firmer and more credible statement of the party's
independence than similar speeches last year at the 25th Soviet
party congress and at the Conference of European Communist Par-
ties. Only one small party--the Republican--has cited Berlinguer's
statement as evidence,that the Communists should be admitted to
the government, but nearly all of the parties have commented
favorably on the speech. The Christian Democrats' official
journal, in fact, said that it seemed to "confirm the irrever-
sible" nature of the Communists' evolution away from Moscow.
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NIGERIA-RHODESIA: Garba's Policy
Nigerian Foreign Minister Garba strongly defended
his government's support for the Anglo-American proposals on
Rhodesia at a press conference last Friday before departing
for the UN. He was responding to recent criticism of the gov-
ernment's position by the Nigerian media and by members of the
civilian consitutent assembly who are using that body's debate
on Nigeria's draft constitution to speak out on other issues.
Garba decried what he called comments by the press
and so-called radicals" conveying the impression that Nigeria
has bent over backward to accept the UK-US proposals in total
and that Nigeria has now abandoned the armed struggle against
white minority rule. He reiterated that Nigeria backs the pro-
posals, despite reservations, as the basis for further negotia-
tions while continuing to support the nationalist struggle.
He wondered why Nigeria should be criticized when the proposals
have also been endorsed by the frontline states.
I I The criticism is a reminder that many influential
Nigerians, especially in press, academic, and intellectual
circles, still harbor strong suspicious of US and Western mo-
tives toward Nigeria and Africa. They are skeptical of closer
cooperation with the US, particularly with respect to US initia-
tives in southern Africa, and they fear Nigeria risks losing
influence in the region should these initiatives fail.
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Some members of the ruling Supreme Military Council
reportedly share these sentiments, and Garba may have been di-
recting his remarks in part at their behind-the-scenes criti-
cism. His press conference nonetheless would seem to indicate
that Head of State Obasanjo and a majority of the Council are
still squarely behind the UK-US proposals on Rhodesia. F_ I 25X1
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WEST GERMANY: Nuclear Industry
The outlook for West Germany's hard-pressed nuclear
energy 2ndustry, potentially the country's most important
growth industry, has recently brightened.
The Iranian Atomic Energy Organization last week
sent a letter of intent to purchase four more 1,200-MW nuclear
power plants from Kraftwerk Union, the leading producer of nu-
clear power plants in West Germany. The Iranian contract, with
an estimated value of around $5 billion, is the largest order
booked by the company since its controversial contract last
year with Brazil for the supply of a complete nuclear power
cycle.
New export orders are vital to ensure continued em-
ployment for the professional and technical staff at Kraftwerk
Union, because work on a number of its domestic nuclear power
projects has been interrupted and new domestic orders delayed
by court actions and citizens' initiatives. Even so, prospects
for breaking the stalemate on domestic nuclear power construc-
tion are improving.
Indications are that the Social Democratic Party, the
senior partner in the governing coalition, will adopt a moderate
line toward nuclear power plant construction. While liberals,
environmentalists, and youth in the party continue their strong
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opposition, the party leadership from Chancellor Schmidt on down
is firmly committed to a nuclear construction program. Fear of
rising unemployment if electric power supplies prove inadequate
in the future is also moving labor increasingly into the pro-
nuclear power camp.
Last week, the Free Democratic Party, the junior
partner in the coalition, rejected a nuclear moratorium and
endorsed a program calling for the construction of several nu-
clear power plants beginning next summer. Under this program,
building permits are to be issued if the federal government and
the lower house of parliament approve provisions for storing
and disposing of the radioactive waste. The Free Democrats con-
sider the conditions required for storage of the material ful-
filled by a recent report of the government nuclear safety
commission.
While political opposition to renewed nuclear power
L_ J
plant construction appears to be easing, the ultimate fate of
depends in part on the attitude of the courts.
25X1
ECUADOR: Elections Postponed
//The Ecuadorean military government's postpone-
ment of the presidential election scheduled for next spring
appears designed to thwart the front-running populist candidate,
Assad Bucaram. The postponement, announced Last Friday, was
supported by most of Ecuador's other political Leaders. Iron-
ically, it could provide an opening for a takeover by military
officers opposed to President Poveda's plan to return Ecuador
to civilian rule via a popular election.//
The postponement, decision suspends the electoral
provisions olf two constitutional drafts that are to be submitted
to a referendum on 15 January. Among the suspended provisions
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are those detailing presidential qualifications. //Two consti-
tutional commissions had earlier resisted requests by the mili-
tary to disqualify Bucaram as a candidate on such grounds as the
foreign birth of his parents or his lack of a university educa-
tion. New election guidelines will now have to be issued, and
these could disqualify Bucaram.//
CUBA-FRANCE-MOROCCO: Warning
//Cuba, in a move that signals its willingness
to risk a further deterioration in its relations with France
and Morocco, has strongly protested the recent French military
deployments in North Africa that followed the seizure of French
citizens by the PoZisario Front. Cuba appears genuinely con-
cerned that Morocco--with French support--might undertake mili-
tary strikes against Algeria. The Cubans probably view the
present situation as an ideal opportunity to strengthen ties
with Algeria in preparation for the 2979 nonaligned summit in
Havana.//
//Cuba's relations with France and Morocco de-
clined rapidly after those two countries helped thwart the
Cuban-aided invasion of Zaire's Shaba region last spring. Until
this month, however, Cuba had avoided provoking an open split
with either country. Now, after 10 days of alarmist reporting
in the Cuban press, the lead editorial in the 10 November edi-
tion of the Communist Party newspaper stressed Cuba's solidar-
ity with Algeria and the people of Western Sahara in the face
of threats of military action by France and Morocco.//
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//The editorial emphasized that France would
not be permitted to "exercise a role as gendarme in Africa with
impunity." A high-level Cuban official told US diplomats in
Havana, however, that the editorial was directed at Morocco
and was designed to underscore the seriousness of Cuba's com-
mitment to Algeria.//
//The Castro government values its relations
with range and would not jeopardize them lightly. Havana has
tried to smooth over difficulties that have arisen with Paris
in the past over such issues as Cuban contact with international
terrorists and Cuba's-military intervention in Angola.//
I /The Cubans clearly view the present imbroglio
between France and Algeria as an ideal opportunity to demon-
strate their solidarity with President Boumediene. As fellow
Third World radicals, Cuba and Algeria have sided together on
a range of issues, and Cuba considers Algeria its closest ally
in the Arab world. Nonetheless, President Castro has not been
able to develop the personal relationship with Boumediene that
he enjoyed with his predecessor, Ahmed Ben Bella.//
/We have no confirmation that any Cuban mili-
tary advisers are serving with the Polisario Front, the Alge-
rian-backed guerrilla movement that is seeking independence for
Western Sahara.. The Polisario presence in Havana apparentl
consists only of 20 students pursuing nonmilitary studies.t
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I The Algerian Charge in Havana--echoing his country's
longstanding policy--recently told US diplomats there that his
country wants only Cuba's political, not military, support.
GUYANA: Sugar Strike-Stalemate
//The sugar strike that the Guyanese Government
vowed to end several weeks ago is now over 80 days old. Prime
Minister Forbes Burnham has held to his no-compromise negoti-
ating position against the stiff demands of the opposition-Zed
Guyana Agriculture and General Workers' Union. His hard-line
strategy has not worked, increasing his fears that his ruling
People's National Congress will be defeated in approaching
parliamentary elections.//
The strike has become a bitter political showdown be-
tween urnham and his Marxist arch-rival, Cheddi Jagan, the
leader of the opposition People's Progressive Party. The gov-
ernment, moreover, can no longer hope to recover the heavy
economic losses from a 40-percent cutback in sugar production
during the strike.
//Burnham, who has been worried about his sag-
ging popularity for months, apparently hoped that a firm stand
against Jagan's strike would restore his political fortune.
His uncompromising stance and strong-arm tactics, however,
have increased tensions between the strikers and the government,
angered influential Guyanese church leaders, and won support
for the strike from unions in the UK and Trinidad.//
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USSR: Ultra High Voltage Lines
The cost of distributing electrical power in the
USSR may Increase as a result of regulations proposed in re-
sponse to growing concern over health hazards associated with
ultra-high-voltage power transmission lines. The proposal, now
under consideration by the Ministry of Power and Electrifica-
tion, would restrict Zand use by prohibiting the exposure of
unprotected civilians to the electric fields beneath and adja-
cent to such power lines. If adopted, the proposal would intro-
duce major problems in power Zine routing as well as increase
power distribution costs. The proposal seems overly restrictive,
and the Soviets may ultimately adopt a Zess stringent standard.
The concern stems from health problems reported by
agricultural workers tending fields under 765-kilovolt power
transmission lines. Since the lines. were first put into service
several years ago, Soviet farmers have reported headaches, fa-
tigue, unpleasant sensations from discharge currents encountered
when using ungrounded agricultural equipment, and shocks from
spark discharges.
izens to electric fields from transmission lines greater than
0.5 kilovolts per meter. The Soviets say this will in effect
prohibit access to areas within 20 meters of 330 kilovolt lines,
30 meters of 500 kilovolt lines, and 40 meters of 750 kilovolt
lines.
The proposal would prohibit exposing unprotected cit-
I of 1976, about 7 percent of the USSR's 638,000
kilometers of power transmission lines carried voltages of 330
kilovolts or higher. The proposed standard would restrict ac-
cess to roughly 3,000 square kilometers of land adjoining these
lines, much of which is in the most densely populated, European
part of the USSR. Recent rates of power line construction would
subject about 1,000 square kilometers of additional land to re-
stricted use every five years.
Preliminary scientific evidence suggests that the
proposed regulations may be overly strict. The group that drew
up the proposed regulations consistently has advocated the most
stringent safety standards in the USSR for the related area of
microwave radiation. Its recommended standards on exposure to
electric voltage probably represent the strongest restrictions
under consideration, and those eventually adopted may be less
strict. 25X1
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//Efforts by the South Korean Government to
work out a compromise with opposition leaders on release of
political prisoners have run into a snag.//
//The government's inclination to stiffen its
position is probably beinc reinforced by the recent flareup of
student demonstrations in Seoul, where additional demands for
reform have been aired. Tte demonstrations are not a serious
threat to President Pak, kut he may want to avoid making any
concessions now that might appear to be the direct resu1
pressures.
The main building of one of South Africa's oldest and
most prestigious Afrikaans primary schools was destroyed by
fire in downtown Cape Town on Sunday. The incident appears to
be the latest of a series of politically motivated arson attacks
on government buildings in Cape Province.
Several other schools, including one of the best known
high schools for coloreds (people of mixed race) and a black
primary school, have been burned down during the past month
by young black militants. These youths have also begun a cam-
paign of urban terrorim focused on black police, school prin-
cipals, and teachers whom students view as supporting the sys-
tem. More than half a dozen homes of black school officials
and police have been firebombed recently, and a young child
died last week in the burning house of a teacher who had argued
with students against school boycotts.
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Police have stepped up arrests throughout the province
in an effort to stam t h
o
de-
tained, which includes
severalachildren, ismsmallfinhcomparison
to the large number arrested last week for causing disturbances
in a black Pretori a }
L -' - .
owns
larize relations between young blacks and the authorities. po-
25X1
A regular session of the USSR S
upreme Soviet will con-
vene on 14 December to approve the economic plan and budget for
1978, according to an official announcement yesterday. The
session is also likely to elect a new USSR Supreme Court. The
five-year term of the 19-man court expired in September but
was extended until this Supreme Soviet session.
The Supreme Soviet normally meets twice a year--once
during the summer, and once in December or sometimes earlier
to consider the economic plan and budget for the coming year.
This year, it met in October for an extraordinary session to
approve the country's new constitution.
The coming session will probably be preceded by a one-
or two-day meeting of the party Central Committee. In past years
this Central Committee meeting has been the occasion for a major
report by General Secretary Brezhnev on economic and foreign
policy matters. Last year, a text of his speech was made public
for the first time, perhaps setting a precedent to be followed
this year.
A Central Committee plenum would also provide an oppor-
unity to make some changes in the top leadership. Since the
Central Committee met as recently as October and made some
changes at that ti ma h... - _
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Afghanistan
//Five or six members of the Afghan cabinet, in-
cluding the minister who handles foreign affairs, reportedly
have submitted their resignations to President Daoud. We do
not know whether they have been accepted. The US Embassy in
Kabul believes that the cause of the resignations is probably
political jealous over the recent appointment of four fellow
ministers to the newly created central council of Afghanistan's
only legal political party.//
Daoud is in complete control of the government, and the
repor e iscontent in the cabinet presents no immediate threat.
Membership on the party's central council carries little real
power, but prestige is involved and council membership also
could be important in the long run in determining who succeeds 25X1
the 68-year-old President. Under the constitution, the party--
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Portugal
I //The National Council of Portugal's Social
Democratic Party voiced "unanimous and massive support" for
former party chief Francisco Sa Carneiro at a special session
last Thursday. Sa Carneiro was magnanimous in victory, making no
mention of the differences that had brought on his resignation
earlier this week.//
//Sa Carneiro's return marks a toughening of
the party's position toward the Socialist minority government,
and it defeats a move-by the party's Political Committee toward
accommodation with the Socialists. The Social Democrats are now
less likely to back away from their insistence on a coalition
government with the Socialists, a proposition that Prime Minister
Soares has steadfastly resisted.
North Korea - Japan
North Korea's seizure last Thursday of a Japanese
fishing boat in the Sea of Japan is not likely to lead to any
serious repercussions in North Korean - Japanese relations. In
September, North Korea agreed on an interim basis to permit
Japanese fishermen to fish in its newly established 200-mile
economic zone off the east coast but refused to grant the
Japanese access to the security zone that extends some 50 to
60 miles out to sea.
25X1
Pyongyang
probably calculates that the seizure will serve to discourage
other Japanese fishing boats from drawing too close to the
security zone. 25X1
Philippines
/The capture last Thursday of Jose Maria Sison,
the chairman of the Maoist-oriented Communist Party of the
Philippines, is another major setback for the party's paramili-
tary arm, the New People's Army. The organization's top two
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military commanders had been captured by the government during
the past year. The group has somewhat more than 2,000 armed men
in widely separated units in Luzon and in the central and
southern islands.//
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