NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010012-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 8, 2006
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: October 20, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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Thursday 20 October 1977 CG NIDC 77/244C
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for 20 August 1977
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The NID Cable is for the purpose o informing
senior US officials.
POLAND: Themes for Carter Visit
NIGERIA: Economic Discussions
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Page 2
ISRAEL: Political Differences
Page
SOUTH AFRICA: Crackdown on Blacks
CANADA: Wage and Price Program
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VENEZUELA: War on Guerrillas
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POLAND: Themes for Carter Visit
I /Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko visited
Warsaw Tuesday, pro ably to discuss President Carter's comin
visit with Polish art Leader Gierek.
Poland is seeking a formal long-term grain agreement
that would commit it to buy at least 3 million tons annually
from the US through 1980. The agreement would supersede an in-
formal understanding negotiated with the US in 1975 in which
Poland expressed a "desire" to purchase 2 million to 3 million
tons of grain annually from the US through 1980.
1 1 Poland also has asked for a $500 million to $600 mil-
lion credit from the US to finance its agricultural purchases
in fiscal year 1978. In addition, it is seeking $400 million to
$500 million for several years thereafter for similar purchases.
The Poles want a seven-year repayment period on the credits,
with a three-year grace period. Such terms are highly unusual
on financing for agricultural purchases.
25X1 I uIn addition, Poland may advance new suggestions to
spur e establishment of joint commercial ventures between
Polish and US firms. It is not clear whether Warsaw will propose
the establishment with US firms of joint-equity ventures in Po-
land. Under recently revised investment laws, such ventures are
now permitted. To date, however, Poland has not negotiated any
such agreements with a Western firm. Warsaw also may express its
frustrations over US antidumping laws and other regulations
that it believes impede the growth of Polish exports to the US.
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Nigerian Head of State General Obasanjo has requested
that the US send a high-level economic delegation to Lagos in
early November for joint discussions in preparation for Presi-
dent Carter's visit. He reportedly wants the conferees to map
out economic subjects for his discussions with the President
and is said to believe that the meeting might lead to the for-
mation of a joint economic commission.
The Foreign Ministry's economic director has dis-
cussed Obasanjo's proposal with 'US Embassy officials. It was
tentatively agreed that the conference should stress "incen-
tives and barriers" to US trade and investment in Nigeria.
This would include policies that Nigeria is formulating to
discourage foreign firms, contractors, and investors in Nigeria
from dealing with South Africa.
The director thinks that the US delegation should in-
dude a legal expert who can explain legislation barring Ameri-
can firms from participating in an economic boycott. The Ni-
gerians may be considering regulations that would require for-
eign firms operating in both Nigeria and South Africa to boycott
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South Africa. Such regulations would result in sharply reduced
US exports to Nigeria and deny Nigeria access to business
relations with US firms vital to its own economic development.
The US is Nigeria's third-ranking source of imports and its
second largest source of investment.
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ISRAEL: Political Differences
The Israeli Government and YigaeZ Yadin's Democratic
Movement for Change appear to have overcome their differences
over the terms for the DMC to join the cabinet. According to
Jerusalem radio, Yadin and Prime Minister Begin conferred briefly
yesterday and will hold a "conclusive" meeting on the issue
today.
I IThe on-again, off-again talks seemed dead last week
when Begin indicated he would soon fill three cabinet posts--
Justice, Transportation, and Social Betterment--that had been
held open for Yadin's party. Although that may have been simply
a pressure tactic by Begin, enough progress apparently was made
in contacts with the Democratic Movement for Yadin to cut short
a visit to the US earlier this week to caucus other leaders of
the party on whether to resume formal talks. They voted 14 to
one yesterday to join the Begin government; the party's govern-
ing council is expected to ratify that decision today.
The Democratic Movement's objections to Begin's hard
line on peace issues and Yadin's desire for a strong voice in
foreign policy, which the Prime Minister prefers to reserve for
himself and Foreign Minister Dayan, have been particular problems.
In addition, the National Religious Party, Begin's key coalition
partner, has opposed the DMC's demand for a commitment on its
electoral reform proposal, fearing that the reform measure might
handicap it and other small parties.
Last weekend, however, Yadin expressed guarded support
for the government's acceptance of the US-Israeli working paper
as the "maximum that any Israeli Government could agree to."
Religious Party and Liberal members of the coalition, moreover,
have dropped hints in the press that they are optimistic about
overcoming differences on the electoral reform issue.
Begin would clearly like the DMC in the coalition,
so long as he does not have to make any major concessions. The
addition of the DMC's 15 seats would give the Likud-dominated
government a much more comfortable majority in the Knesset,
where its margin now hinges on four votes.
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is particularly anxious to include the DMC in the cabinet in
order to strengthen its voice in policy matters and to reduce
the coalition's heavy dependence on the religious parties. The
orthodox Aguda Israel Party, with four seats, has been threat-
ening to withdraw its support unless Begin lives up to his
controversial commitment to push for legislation amending the
Law of Return, which legally establishes who is a Jew. The
Liberals are opposed to any change in the law.
The somewhat more moderate Liberal faction of Likud
Yadin, who is relatively flexible on negotiating
issues, probably will not be able to exercise a significant
moderating influence on Begin, The degree of tactical flexi-
bility the Prime Minister is likely to demonstrate will depend
largely on what he and Dayan believe they can sell to hard-
liners in Likud and the National Religious Party. Many in Likud
believe Begin and Dayan have already gone too far in making
concessions and are unhappy over the acceptance of the working
paper.
The inclusion of the DMC, however, would strengthen
begin -s -J aim to represent a broad domestic consensus on
negotiating issues. He could then argue with Likud hardliners
that his flexibility had netted two important benefits for the
coalition: a strengthened ability to resist further US pressure
and the effective isolation of the o osition Labor Dart y.
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The~South African Government's countrywide crackdown
on the black consciousness movement yesterday was designed to
stamp out the sporadic violence that has been growing since the
death of black activist Steve Biko in prison Zast month. The
immediate result could be a period of calm while the black
community assesses its losses, but violence will reoccur.
The political campaign for the 30 November general
election to the all-white parliament opens today. The government
doubtless timed yesterday's extensive security raids to impress
the white electorate with its ability to control the internal
security situation, which has been deteriorating since the
riots in Soweto in June 1976.
In recent months, tensions have mounted as black
school boycotts spread to several sections of the country, in-
cluding the tribal "homelands." More recently, violence, often
sparked by protests over the still-unexplained death of Biko,
has erupted in various parts of the country. The government
delay in reporting the circumstances of Biko's death has been
loudly criticized by several newspapers, including The World,
the leading black paper edited by Percy Qobozo, who was arrested
yesterday. The World was one of the two black papers shut down.
I lso imprisoned were the president and several mem-
bers of the Black People's Convention, which was among 18 black
organizations outlawed. Several members of the Committee of Ten,
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the group of Soweto moderates who tried unsuccessfully to start
a dialogue with the government last summer in an attempt to
bring stability to the township, were also arrested as was the
top executive clergyman in the Roman Catholic Church.
Several white South Africans were served with banning
orders, which restrict them from speaking out. These include
Donald Woods, editor of an East London newspaper, a close
friend of Biko's and longstanding critic of apartheid.
I he crackdown yesterday was the most sweeping the
governmen has conducted since 1960, when it effectively
stifled black unrest by banning, imprisoning, or driving into
exile most of the black leaders. The result was 16 years of
quiescence.
The government is clearly hoping it can achieve the
same results now. It is unlikely, however, that the ferment
now evident among South African blacks can be extinguished by
this type of suppression: internal political forces and exter-
nal pressures working against apartheid in South Africa have
changed considerably in the past 17 years. The governmeent's
actions will result in an increased radicalization of politically
aware blacks and rising incidents of urban terrorism, all of
which will further undermine the white community's sense of
security. 125X1
CANADA: Wage and Price Program
/The Canadian Government will announce tonight
a tightening of its wage-price controls and some additional
measures aimed at reducing record unemployment. Because of
continuing concern over inflation, Ottawa will not opt for
major economic stimulation.//
//The government is likely to scrap its current
incomes formula and to impose an absolute ceiling on wage,
price, and dividend increases. Under present wage guidelines,
cost-of-living adjustments would permit higher wage settle-
ments next year than Ottawa is willing to accept. The fixed
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ceiling under the new formula will probably be 6 percent. As
a concession to labor, the announcement is likely also to in-
clude a date in early 1978 for beginning a gradual phase-out of
wage-price controls.//
//The existing wage-price controls are now enter-
ing eir zird year and a decision on phasing them out has
been repeatedly postponed since last July. At this stage, the
controls appear to be ineffectual. Inflation is running at an
annual rate of 8.4 percent--more than 2 percentage points above
the target rate for 1977.//
//Ottawa also intends to introduce some immediate
stimulative measures to reduce unemployment, which presently
exceeds 8 percent of the labor force. These will likely include
modest tax reductions and some selective make-work programs.
The government might also attempt to tie further tax reductions
to continued moderation in wage settlements.
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Although the insurgents apparently number no more than
150 to 200 men, they are highly mobile, operate from areas
where concealment is easy, and are capable of spectacular--if
isolated--acts of terrorism.//
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These have run
the gamut from robbery and extortion to the kidnaping of prom-
inent Venezuelan and US businessmen. Venezuelan officials are
concerned that the upcoming meeting of OPEC members in Caracas
on 20 December--the first time Caracas has hosted a meeting of
that organization--could provide an appropriate setting for a
hit and run attack by the guerrillas and their supporters.
The continued insurgency is undermining the conten-
tion of leaders of the ruling Democratic Action Party that
their party has brought internal security and tranquility to 25X1
the country. The falseness of this claim is underlined by al-
most daily reports of guerrilla activities in a number of states 25X1
in eastern Venezuela.
An even more important consideration for Perez may
be the possibility that the continuation of guerrilla activi-
ties could unsettle the delicate balance in civilian-military
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