NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030300010036-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 7, 2006
• Sequence Number: 36
• Publication Date: August 31, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

Pr AMW MW AW AW AW Aw -/
0
I~
Apprl@ FIB Release 2007/03/08
ec*
TO:
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INITIALS
1
2
3
4
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPAR
E REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOM
MENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETUR
N
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
REMARKS:
FROM:
NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO.
DATE
(Security Classification)
CONTROL NO. ----I
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
Wednesday August 31, 1977 CG NIDC 77-203C
w
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
State Dept. review completed
i.1
Top Secret
0 (Security Classification)
Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0303000100 -
CIA-RDP79T00975AO3030001 6-5
- p Secret
T
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30300010036-5
Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30300010036-5
 25X1
Approved Fob
25X1
National Intelli Daily Cable for Wednesday, 31 August 1977.
T e NID Cable is tor e purpose U1 L11LUL1
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
ROMANIA-ISRAEL: Results of Begin Visit
Page 2
SOUTH AFRICA: Tension in Schools
Page 3
CHINA-YUGOSLAVIA: Tito Visits Peking
Page 6
GUINEA:
ETHIOPIA:
BRIEFS:
Aftermath of Market Riots
Internal Reorganization
Page 7
Page 8
Page 9
Eastern Europe
25X1
Angola-Portuga
Portugal
Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO39300010036-5
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30300010036-5
Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30300010036-5
 Approved F
ROMANIA-ISRAEL: Results of Begin Visit
The predictable disagreements over Middle East issues
a mar ad Israeli Prime Minister Begin's five-day visit to
Romania, which ended yesterday, are unlikely to disturb the
close relations between the two countries.
Approved f{or Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T0097PA030300010036-5
 Approved F
Begin and his hosts in fact emphasized their mutual
desire to pursue closer economic ties, and the communique is-
sued at the end of the visit stated that differences over
Arab-Israeli questions would not be allowed to impair "the
friendly relations between their two peoples."
On Middle East issues, Begin adamantly rejected ap-
peals 5-y -President Ceausescu and Prime Minister Manescu that
Israel:
--Withdraw from all occupied Arab territories.
--Agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
--Agree to the participation of the Palestine Liberation
Organization in Geneva peace talks.
The Romanian position on the Arab-Israeli dispute is
we mown and could hardly have come as a surprise to Begin.
Begin probably welcomed the opportunity to air his contrasting
views, expecting that they will be passed along by the Roma-
nians to their Arab, East European, and Soviet friends.
The visit also had other positive features, the most
important of which was Ceausescu's reported agreement to "con-
sider in a positive spirit" Jewish applications for emigration
to Israel.
SOUTH AFRICA: Tension in Schools
The South African Government's takeover Zast week of
the school system in the black township of Soweto was designed
to overhaul the education system in the hope of satisfying
some of the demands of Soweto's militant youths, thereby less-
ening tension in the township. The government undoubtedly also
sees immediate and practical advantages in attempting to weaken
the cohesiveness of the militant black student leaders and im-
pede the outbreak of further violence.
I The government closed Soweto's 40 community high
schools last week and withheld funds from them. The 27,000
students who have been attending the schools--which were run
Approved F
I 25X1
 .Approved Fqr Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T00974AO30300010036-5
in a semiautonomous fashion by local school boards--must now
re-register before the schools are reopened under the control
of the Bantu Education Department.
classes and intimidating teachers, school board members, and
even black police as a protest against their education system,
which they feel should meet white standards. The government
believed the school takeover was necessary to curb the student
rebellion.
I I Recent police raids have discovered instructions on
e ac boards of several high schools for making dynamite
and gasoline bombs, and police have arrested' over 300 people,
including some teachers, during the past few weeks. Police
have learned of plans for a "Black September" uprising next
month and claim to have recently apprehended. 10 terrorists
armed with Soviet machine pistols.
I I Although the government is undoubtedly serious about
removing some of the inequities in the educational system, it
also sees the physical takeover of the schools as a way to
drive out or at least seriously weaken the leadership of the
militant students. Since last year, the government has system-
atically arrested the student leaders or forced them to flee
the country. The chairman of the student council sought refuge
in Botswana last week after being wounded in an altercation be-
tween police and students.
The closure of the schools is also a defeat for the
For over a month, students have been boycotting
Committee of Ten, the moderate group of Soweto residents who
joined together last month to try to bring some stability to
the township. The committee took on the task of halting the
student boycott, but its lack of success will now make it less
credible both to the government and to the people of Soweto.
Senior police officials in Soweto, who have shown
more moderation in their recent dealings with students than
they did during the riots last year, have urged the government
to adapt to changing conditions in urban black townships by ac-
cepting some of the realities of black politics. In order to
bring a peaceful end to Soweto's 14 months of turmoil, however,
the government would have to offer the students enough real and
immediate change to satisfy their demands. Concessions have been
given before, but they have always been too few and too late.
Approved F
 Approved F
25X1 I it is difficult to see how the government could now
move quic ly enough to work out a meaningful solution. Both
black and white South Africans look at Soweto as an indicator
of trends in the country, and renewed violence there could
again spread to other parts of urban black South Africa. I
Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T0097541030300010036-5
 Approved For
CHINA-YUGOSLAVIA: Tito Visits Peking
I IAt the beginning of Yugoslav President Tito's 10-day
state visit to China yesterday, the Chinese seemed eager to em-
phasize areas of common agreement and tone down anti-Soviet com-
ments in deference to Tito's sensitivity on the subject. Tito
was more willing to point out areas of disagreement with the
Chinese, apparently to allay Soviet suspicions about his trip
to China.
I I Tito received a massive welcome on his arrival. In
an exc ange of banquet toasts with Tito last night, Chairman
Hua Kuo-feng said China supports Yugoslavia's "just struggle
in defense! of independence and sovereignty against foreign ag-
gression and subversion"--code language for :Belgrade's resis-
tance to Soviet pressure. Hua called Tito's visit a "major
event in Sino-Yugoslav relations."
I I For his part, Tito carefully avoided any references
that the USSR might construe as signaling cooperation between
China and Yugoslavia against its interests. He made no mention
of "hegemonism"--Peking's implicitly anti-Soviet formulation--
although his Chinese host did. Tito spoke in positive terms of
the Helsinki accords and "the relaxation of international ten-
sions"--two issues that the Chinese dispute with the Soviets.
He also flatly contradicted the frequent Chinese theme of the
inevitability of war by saying that "war is not inevitable."
The toasts of the two leaders indicated that the Non-
aligned Movement and the Third World will figure prominently in
their discussions this week. In the past, Peking has attempted
to recruit less developed countries into its anti-Soviet cru-
sade, but Belgrade has maintained that the nonaligned states
should stay out of bilateral disputes.
Approved For Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T009715A030300010036-5
 Approved Fc
The activities of Tito's first day in Peking also
sugge Jere has been no progress toward restoring party-to-
party ties with the Chinese. Although Peking welcomed the purely
party figures who are accompanying Tito, it has avoided giving
any hint that the two sides can resolve their long-standing
ideological differences. Hua did not :reciprocate when Tito re-
ferred to him as "comrade" in his toast.
GUINEA: Aftermath of Market Riots
I Conakry remains quiet following the antigovernment
emons ra ions Last weekend over the Tours regime's economic
failings. Troops in reduced numbers still patrol key points.
The government radio has ignored the events so far, probably
because President Toure and his inner circle have not decided
how to play the embarrassing episode. The general feeling among
city residents, according to the US Charge, is that the pro-
testors were justified and that Toure has responded ineptly to
their grievances.
Disturbances also flared in several provincial towns,
and sporadic violence may be continuing in outlying localities.
Few casualties have been reported, although some deaths have
occurred in Conakry and elsewhere.
A senior government official has told the US Charge
that Toure is confident the situation is under control. Govern-
ment policy regarding the disturbances will be determined at a
meeting of the ruling party's central committee after investi-
gations now under way are completed. According to another Guin-
ean official, Toure will not condone a return to private com-
merce as sought by the demonstrators or let them go unpunished.
Toure reportedly sees "remnants of colonialism and
imperialism" behind the disorders and views the almost simul-
taneous outbursts in several population centers as a "counter-
revolutionary plot." He specifically suspects that unemployed
males, husbands of market women, e al traders and smug
glers incited the women to riot. Toure
is considering sending all such troublemakers to a arm ax
from Conakry.
Approved Fob- Release 2007/03/08 : CIA-RDP79T009754&030300010036-5
 Approved Fo4
ETHIOPIA: Internal Reorganization
established by decree on Saturday, is designed to enhance the
country's efforts over the long term to cope with its various
insurgencies and secessionist movements. The decree puts heavy
emphasis on cooperation between military authorities and local
civilian organizations, and it further diminishes the role as-
signed to Marxist civilian advisers.
Council, the new organization includes key members of the coun-
cil, senior members of the cabinet, commanders of the military
and police services, and representatives of the mass organiza-
tions for labor, women, and youth. The national operations com-
mand structure is to be paralleled at the regional, district,
and sub-district levels and in the city of Addis Ababa. These
organizations are charged with meeting the manpower and finan-
cial needs of the forces on the battlefronts and with assuring
public support for the government's efforts.
The national command is charged with assessing threats
to national sovereignty and issuing directives to the armed
forces, police, militia, regional commands, ministries, govern-
ment offices, and mass organizations concerning their partici-
pation in the defense of the country.
I In most respects, the new structure follows that of
the revolutionary and development committees set up in April.
Those committees were presented as a means of involving a broad
sector of the population in the implementation of government
policy. Unlike the new organization which replaces them, how-
ever, their structure provided for formal representation of
the civilian leftists.
Ethiopia's National Revolutionary operations Command,
Headed by Chairman Mengistu of the ruling Military
I We have very little information on how the network
o committees works or on how effective it has been. The rela-
tive speed and efficiency with which the people's militia is
being recruited and fielded is indirect testimony, however, to
the efficiency of some sort of local support mechanism.
Earlier this month, Mengistu appealed to the Ethio-
pian masses to mobilize to meet the military threat from So-
malia. In moving to establish the National Revolutionary Oper-
ations Command, he may be showing a willingness to try the
Approved
 Approved Foil
traditional Ethiopian way of responding to military crises--
tactical withdrawal until large ad hoc armies recruited under
local. leadership can be mobilized and sent to join the fight-
ing.
Unconfirmed reports 25X1
lindicate that Communist government and party c ie s will
mee Bulgaria in the next few days. We have no firm evidence
that such a meeting has been called or of its intended purpose.
Such high-level conclaves normally are not announced in advance.
I The Hungarians have reported that Premier Lazar will
make an o ficial visit to Bulgaria in early September. There
have also been announcements of a visit by Romanian President
Ceausescu to Sofia, reportedly to take place during the first
ten days of September. Bulgarian media yesterday reported the
arrival in Sofia of Mongolian party chief Tsedenbal for a
"brief, friendly visit." As of now, we have no reporting on
the travel plans of other Communist leaders for the coming
days.
Soviet President Brezhnev held separate meetings with
all Warsaw Pact party chiefs in July and early August at his
Crimean vacation retreat. Following his meeting in Moscow with
Yugoslav President Tito, he returned to the Crimea on 19 August
to continue his vacation.
Approved For
 Approved For
Angola-Portugal:
Angola and Portugal have agreed to :begin next week
to repatriate about 1,000 Angolans who fled to Portugal during
the 1975 Angolan civil war, according to Portuguese press re-
ports. The refugees will be flown to Angola on planes chartered
by both governments; efforts are also under way to secure the
assistance of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees in the re-
patriation effort. The repatriation program is part of Angola's
efforts to get experienced workers and technical help for its
ailing economy.
The Portuguese Ambassador to Angola predicts that
with UN aid, almost all of those wishing to return will be able
to do so by the end of the year. The Ambassador says that nego-
tiations have also gone well regarding the return to Portugal
of Portuguese nationals held in Angolan jails and that this
issue will probably be resolved in several weeks.
J Thirty people were injured and two arrested on Monday
when police clashed twice with Communist-led farm workers over
the implementation of agrarian reform near Evora in south-cen-
tral Portugal. These first serious incidents since passage of
the agrarian reform law over Communist opposition on 10 August
indicate that the Soares government is resolved to imnlement
the law.
Approved F4
 PV AW AW AV AV AV AIV AV AV AV AT
Approved For Release 2007/03/08 CIA-RDP79T00975AO30300010036-5
0 Top Secret
(Security Classification) 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
TopSnnenncretdd 0
(Security l;la~ ffl allOr5or Release 2007/03/08 CIA-RDP79T00975AO30300010036-5