NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030100010006-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 24, 2006
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: May 4, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Wednesday May 4, 1977 CG NIDC 77-103C
0
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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State Dept. review completed
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 Approved For Rel
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Wednesday. May 4. 1977.
a e is tor a purpose ot in orming
senior.US officials.
CONTENTS
ZAIRE: Situation Report
Page 1
SPAIN: Suarez Opens Campaign
USSR-ETHIOPIA: Mengistu Visit
SIERRA LEONE: Election Friday
CHINA: Crop Prospects Improved
Page 4
Page 6
Page 8
Page 11
Page 12
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ZAIRE: Situation Report
The Katangans now appear to be putting up
ests anee to southern Zaire and the Moroccans have taken
some r
part in fighting for the first time. Some Egyptian personnel
are now in Shaba.
The Zairian-Moroccan offensive in Shaba appears to
have stalled midway between Mutshatsha and Kasaji. The govern-
ment task force apparently ran out of fuel over the weekend 25X1
nna lead elements were ambushed Sunday by the Katangans.
both sides took casualties
during the five-hour ig .
I I Moroccan troops apparently played a major role in
driving back the Katangans and regaining the few kilometers
lost during the initial phase of the fight. The ambush was the
first action seen by the Moroccans since their arrival in south-
ern Zaire early last month. They apparently suffered about 20
casualties.
The ambush, the first major fighting to
take place since the government offensive began nearly two
weeks ago, may indicate that-the Katangans are preparing to de-
Zairian offensives along the other two axes appar-
ently are also stalled. Government units that were repulsed
last week by the Katangans in the areas of Kafakumba and Kapanga
reportedly have been ordered to hold their positions for the
time being.
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Part of the Egyptian contin
t
gen
promised by President
Sadat Sunday apparently has arriv
d i
e
n Zaire. Press reports in-
dicate that the group numbers about 50 and includes pilots,
maintenance crews, and a medical mission.
The Egyptian pilots and technici
i
ans w
ll be operat-
ing the Zairian air force's Mirage fighters, which have seen
only limited action during the two-month-old conflict. The Egyp-
tian role is likely to be largely symbolic. According to the US
embassy in Cairo, Egyptian pilots will take to the air primarily
to provide moral support for. the Moroccans rather than to under-
take combat missions.
4 In order to garner support from sympathetic regimes
roa , aire is continuing its efforts to dramatize the Shaba
incursion as an act of armed aggression supported by the Soviets
and their communist allies. Kinshasa "suspended" diplomatic re-
lations with East Germany earlier this week for its alleged in-
volvement as an arms supplier and may take the same step with
Moscow.
I Meanwhile, Iran has joined Western-oriented countries
in coming to Mobutu's aid. The Shah reportedly has quietly dis-
bursed $1 million as a grant to Zaire.
//China may be considering increasing its mili-
ary and economic programs in Zaire, once the Katangans are
forced from Shaba. The increase in military aid may take the
form of advising on the reorganization of the Zairian army,
perhaps accompanied by modest deliveries of military equipment.
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SPAIN: Suarez Opens Campaign
Spain's Prime Minister Adolfo Suarez ended specuZa-
Zon a out his role in next month's general election by announc-
ing his candidacy in a speech to the nation last night on radio
and television. He portrayed the election and his candidacy as
a commitment to the democratic processes he hopes to install.
J Declaring that he will run not as a party man but
rather in a center coalition, Suarez sought to maintain a non-
partisan stance while strongly calling for support of centrists.
In a campaign-like presentation, he stressed that the center
coalition will offer an alternative to conflict between the
right and the left and fill a vacuum in Spanish political life.
I Suarez noted that the views of the centrist Goali-
e similar to those that have guided his government. He
said that despite the approval of the government's reform pro-
gram in the referendum last December, he should present himself
to the voters for approval.
Calling moderation the guiding principle of the cen-
trist group in carrying out political reform, Suarez noted the
following goals for completion of Spain's political transition:
--Holding the general election.
--Undertaking constitutional reform.
--Launching reforms in the economic system and tax struc-
ture as a prelude to instituting social justice and regional
reforms.
I uIn an effort to allay criticism of his candidacy from
parries -40 the right and left, Suarez said he would refrain from
campaigning in order to avoid compromising the government's neu-
trality. He also said he would not resign, because he believes
that would create a political crisis. He noted that he is running
without support from the organs of government or from the crown,
which he said remains above politics.
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I I The Prime Minister also defended his action in legal-
izing a Spanish Communist Party, saying this was necessary to
ensure democracy. He acknowledged that the legalization had up-
set many Spaniards, but he justified the action as consistent
with political reform and noted that the party has changed in
recent months so that it is not now in violation of the law.
I I In fact, legalization of the Communist Party may have
been a ey factor in Suarez' decision to run. He reportedly
feared that distrust of Communists might swing too many votes
to the rightist Popular Alliance coalition dominated by five
former Francoist ministers.
Suarez added that he was concerned about the slowness
with w is center parties were organizing and thought they
needed the boost his candidacy will give. Although he did not
identify the center coalition he is supporting, his remarks
most probably refer to the Union of the Democratic Center, an
alliance of 15 parties announced yesterday by former minister
of public works Calvo Sotelo, who resigned last month to run
in the election and to conduct Suarez' campaign.
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USSR-ETHIOPIA: Mengistu Visit
//Mengistu has been anxious to visit the USSR
//Ethiopia's ruling military council Chairman
engzs u, w Fo begins his first state visit to the USSR today,
will probably seek increased Soviet political support and mil-
itary assistance. Despite the problems with the Somalis that
are likely to result, Moscow will probably give Mengistu at
least some additional help.//
early this year to cement his growing relations with Mos-
cow, but a planned trip was postponed after the power struggle
in the council in February. Mengistu's recent moves to reduce
the US presence in Ethiopia, while not taken primarily to please
the Soviets, may have been timed to create a favorable atmos-
phere for the visit.//
//Mengistu may again ask the Soviets to use
eir in uence to restrain Somalia from acting to seize parts
of Ethiopia it has long coveted.//
//Moscow apparently regards its prospects in
Ethiopia worth risking some loss of influence with Somalia and
probably will promise to do what it can. The Soviets have been
trying to arrange an Ethiopian-Somali rapprochement since at
least last November, but their efforts thus far have succeeded
only in angering the Somalis.//
//Moscow has not yet made any significant commit-
men s o economic aid to the Ethiopian government, and Mengistu
will probably also ask the Soviets tn?do more in this area.
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SIERRA LEONE: Election Friday
Sierra Leone's President Stevens and his ruling All
People's Congress Party are prepared for widespread violence
before the parliamentary election on Friday. Security forces,
including army troops heretofore confined to barracks, have
taken up positions in Freetown and other population centers.
Unrest is Likely to continue well after the election.
I I Last February, Stevens promised rioting students
unat ould hold a "fair and free" election. Strong-arm tac-
tics by his party, however, prevented the opposition from nomi-
nating candidates in many constituencies. Stevens also imposed
a state of emergency that was scheduled to expire last Saturday.
Although parliament, which is vested with the power to extend
it, was dissolved last month in preparation for the election,
the emergency still appears to be in effect.
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J Opposition to Stevens and his party has been loud
and persistent and has included calls for his resignation.
Continued student unrest and rumors of a general strike have
now raised tensions to the point that more violence seems cer-
tain.
The All People's Congress is virtually assured of
retaining its majority in parliament, and lawyers for the op-
position are already preparing postelection legal challenges.
These measures will combine with popular dissatisfaction to
keep Sierra Leone in turmoil-for the foreseeable future. F77
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THAILAND-LAOS-VIETNAM: Relations
I The 33rd session of the UN Economic and Social
Commission for Asia and the Pacific, which ended last week in
Bangkok, reflected both the basic tensions and the opportuni-
ties for cooperation between the communist Indochinese states
and noncommunist Thailand.
I I Lao delegates initially took a negative stance and
accuse ailand of sabotage and subversion against Laos by
organizing, arming, and training Lao resistance forces. The
Vietnamese, who met with the Lao delegation just prior to this
outburst, repeated similar charges of Thai interference in Laos.
i
1~ D esp
and Vietnamese delegations were willing to engage in productive
discussions with Thai officials. The head of the
i
ve
substant
Lao delegation, Deputy Foreign Minister Nouphan Sithpasai, and
Thai Foreign Minister Uppadit Pachariyangkun held private dis-
cussions. In a post-meeting press conference, both expressed
their desire for improved Thai-Lao relations. They noted agree-
ment to speed up implementation of the long-delayed joint avia-
tion agreement and to exchange ambassadors but cautioned that
such an exchange may be months away.
//Although the Vietnamese took a more restrained
posi Laos on improving relations with Thailand, they
did agree to discuss outstanding bilateral issues in Vientiane.
Anxious to obtain funds to develop the power and irrigation po-
tential of the lower Mekong River basin, the Vietnamese also
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't such sharp propaganda attacks, both the Lao
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agreed to participate more actively in the UN-sponsored Mekong
Development Committee, along with Thailand and Laos. Cambodia
has
h
s
own no hus far to participate.//
I
I JScattered rainfall in April has improved the outlook
or tna s summer-harvested crops. Winter wheat output, how-
ever, will be down at least 10 percent from the record 50 miZ-
lion tons last year.
Total winter wheat output in Honan and Shantung prov-
inces, w ich together account for nearly one half of China's
winter wheat, is sure to be down from the excellent harvest of
last year despite reported light to moderate rainfall during
the last week in April. The New China News Agency announced on
April 13 that China hoped to salvage most of the wheat in Shan-
tung and 60 percent of the crop in Honan. About 40 percent of
the cultivated area in these provinces is irrigated.
Reporting from the two provinces states that an ad-
ditional 20 percent is being watered, mostly by hand with buck-
ets. Hand-carrying of water occurs somewhere in these provinces
nearly every year--often with the help of army troops. Though
the manpower mobilization is impressive, hand watering can do
no more than stave off disaster.
I Hopeh Province, which grows roughly 15 percent of
ina s winter wheat, continues to be dry. There has been no
reporting from Hopeh for over six weeks, probably a sign that
things have turned for the worse. As of mid-March, about one
third of the wheat had been watered.
I I Shansi, Shensi, and Kansu provinces, which collec-
ive y account for 20 percent of the winter wheat acreage, are
also quite dry. Kansu and Shensi have not been reporting on the
crop, but a steady stream of reports from Shansi beginning in
March indicates a possibility of recovery there.
I The northern halves of Anhwei and Kiangsu provinces,
WIIJLcn r_ together account for the remaining 15 percent of the win-
ter wheat acreage, have received enough rainfall to ensure
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CHINA: Crop Prospects Improved
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recovery of most of their crop. Improvements there, however,
will not offset the losses likely in the northern half of the
North China Plain.
The record winter wheat crop last year received a
boost from exceptionally high precipitation in February, which
encouraged early greening. This year, February precipitation
was at near-record lows, and a relatively dry March affected
the crop in April. With the exception of irrigated areas--and
even some of these lack adequate stored water this year--yields
are certain to be down.
In the southern rice-growing provinces of Fukien and
Kwangtung, where drought has been reported this year, the out-
look is mixed. Fukien received enough rain during March and the
first 10 days of April to alleviate drought in the key coastal
growing areas.
In Kwangtung, rainfall continues to be inadequate in
the key areas near Swatow and the Pearl River Delta. Although
reports indicate some delay in transplanting because of water
shortages, conditions are still better than last year, when too
much rain severely retarded the early rice crop. More rain is
needed to avoid losses in this important province.
The effect of the drought on grains now being planted
for harvest in the fall is of particular importance. If low
soil moisture and insufficient rainfall persist this month, corn,
sorghum, and millet in North China may germinate poorly. Should
this occur in tandem with a reduced late rice crop in the south,
China will be forced to consider additional grain purchases in
the third quarter of 1977.
I I China's widely publicized drought, coupled with a
purchase of 100,000 tons of Argentine wheat in mid-April, stim-
ulated offers of grain by international traders. Most of these
firms either own stocks of Argentine or Canadian grain or hold
contracts for future delivery.
I China will, however, probably elect to monitor the
crop a little longer before considering purchases, in addition
to the 5.2 million tons of wheat already purchased for deliver
in 1977. F7
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