NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030000010018-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 16, 2006
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: April 11, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Monday April 11, 1977
DIA review(s) completed.
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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F National Intelligence Daily Cable for Mond: 11, 11 1977.
T e a e is tor e
senior US o icials.
CONTENTS
ISRAEL: Peres Endorsement
PAKISTAN: Anti-government Violence
YUGOSLAVIA: Nuclear Energy Cooperation
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USSR: Protein Synthesis
Communist Party
CHINA: Grain Imports
INTERNATIONAL: Genetic Engineering Research
ZAIRE: Military Aid
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Following the Israeli Labor Party's endorsement yes-
er ay o Defense Minister Peres as its candidate for prime
minister, party leaders are trying to achieve some measure of
unity between Peres and those groups within the coalition La-
bor Alignment that have Zong opposed him. The party is working
under great pressure because its final Zist of parliamentary
nominees must be presented by tomorrow.
I IPeres reportedly has offered Foreign Minister Allon
the secon spot on the party's parliamentary list and assured
him the defense portfolio, the government's second most power-
ul position. This appears to be a move designed to placate
Allon's left-wing faction and to mollify disgruntled supporters
of former prime minister Rabin, who favored Allon over Peres
for the party's top spot. In a further gesture to the party's
powerful old-guard leadership, Rabin himself will apparently
be given a "safe" place on Labor's electoral list.
I lFormer foreign minister Eban, a well-known member of
Lae s left-wing but a political ally of Peres, reportedly
has been offered his old portfolio. Peres probably hopes that
this, combined with his offer to Allan, will help win over the
support of the party's left wing and, even more important, Ma-
pam, Labor's long-time partner in the Alignment.
I IDespite Peres' efforts, Mapam's intentions remain the
biggest question mark. It has long opposed Peres because of his
hawkish stance on negotiations with the Arabs, especially over
the West Bank. At its party convention earlier this year, Ma-
pam went on record as favoring withdrawal from the Alignment
if Peres gained the Labor Party nomination.
To preserve its option to run independently in the
May national election, over the weekend Mapam secured the ap-
proval of the parliament's election committee to be recognized
as a separate party. Mapam leaders reportedly will meet today
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PAKISTAN: Anti-government Violence
I The violence in Pakistan that began this weekend in
the po t ically volatile city of Lahore, capital of Punjab
Province, has been the bloodiest since the opposition's cam-
paign to force the resignation of Prime Minister Bhutto was
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launched nearly a month ago. The immediate cause of the demon-
strations was the convening of the recently elected Punjabi
provincial assembly. Demonstrations also occurred over the
weekend in other cities and several smaller towns in the Pun-
jab, in Karachi, and in other cities in the southern part of
the country.
I IThe opposition is demonstrating its ability to keep
the anti-Bhutto campaign going--and is even gathering momentum--
despite the arrest of most of its leaders and many hundreds of
its supporters. Bhutto remains unable to cajole the opposition
into a dialogue. The renewed violence and the participation in
the demonstrations by a widening spectrum of Pakistanis will
encourage the opposition and probably strengthen its determina-
tion not to compromise with the government.
I A critical factor in the present test of strength re-
mains the position of the army and the security services. T.'aus
far, Bhutto has called on the army for only limited assistance
to the hard-pressed police, primarily in enforcing a curfew in
Karachi following unrest in that city late last month. The army
was not used in maintaining order in Lahore this weekend. 25X1
I If Bhutto is forced to use the armed forces to main-
tain his rule, the danger of a move against him by his military
commanders will increase proportionately.
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YUGOSLAVIA: Nuclear Energy Cooperation
I//Yugoslavia has proposed that the nonaligned
(?;,un ries cooperate in the development of nuclear energy by
pooling their material and fini'-"zl resources.//
I IYugoslavia raised the.matter during the current meet-
ing of the nonaligned coordinating council in New Delhi, accord-
ing to a report from an Indian news agency. The Yugoslavs sug-
gested forming a group of experts to draw up a draft "action
program" so that the nonaligned can "emancipate" themselves
quickly from their reliance on the developed West for nuclear
technology.
J In Yugoslavia's view, such cooperation might involve
prospecting for and creating reserves of nuclear materials,
training personnel, building nuclear power stations, establish-
ing national industries for the production of nuclear-related
equipment, and conductina joint research in nuclear science.
25X1 Yugoslavia--like a number of other nonaligned states--
has long maintained that all developing countries have the
right of unhampered access to sophisticated technology. It seems
unlikely that a cooperative program would be effective, although
there will probably be little opposition to Belgrade's general
proposal. Among the nonaligned, only India has a significant
25X1 nuclear energy program, and the others have very little to con-
tribute.
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USSR: Protein Synthesis
I Ione of the major obstacles to increasing livestock
product-ion in the USSR is a general shortage of feeds, particu-
larly concentrated protein supplements. Because planned expan-
sion in conventional agricultural practices is unlikely to aZ-
leviate this shortage and the Soviets want to avoid increased
imports, they are increasing the production of synthetic pro-
tein from yeast grown on petroleum hydrocarbons. Extensive So-
viet studies of this protein show that it can replace high-
protein supplements such as soybean and fish meal in Livestock
feed, particularly that for swine and poultry.
The USSR has committed substantial resources to syn-
thetic protein production and is rapidly expanding its protein
synthesis technology. The Soviets already have research and
development facilities to study hydrocarbon-based yeast pro-
duction, and eight large production plants are in operation or
under construction.
I The eight production facilities are scheduled to be
in u production by 1980 with a combined annual capacity of
between 860,000 and 1 million metric tons. The Soviets say
that the four plants already partially operational can produce
300,000 metric tons of protein annually, but
the plants are operating well be ow rated c -
city.
The Soviets apparently are having difficulties with
producing the necessary 99-percent pure hydrocarbon growing
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medium as well as with purifying the final product. They are
negotiating for Western technology to help solve some of these
and other technical problems.
I I Production of synthetic protein will give the Soviets
a re i e supply of high-quality protein without burdening
agricultural resources, such as land, fertilizer, and equip-
ment. Annual production of 1 million metric tons of synthetic
protein would be equivalent to about 30 percent of current So-
viet production of oilseed meals now used as protein supple-
ments. To produce a quantity of oilseed meal equivalent to 1
million tons of synthetic protein, the Soviets would have to
devote approximately 2 million additional hectares to the grow-
ing of sunflowers or 1.26 million hectares to the growing of
cotton.
The Soviet livestock industry probably could use
about 3 million metric tons per year of synthetic protein for
feed in addition to conventional feedstuffs. If the Soviets
can produce about 1 million tons of synthetic protein from
yeast grown on hydrocarbon and expand production of synthesized
protein from other sources, they should be able to produce
about 2 million tons of protein annually by 1980.
I IThe Soviets produce substantial amounts of the type
o petro eum required for growing the yeast, and if current
ventures succeed they probably could double the amount of pro-
tein derived from this growing medium over the next ten years.
Their capacity for continued expansion will depend on various
factors:
--Competing demands for the petroleum.
--Improvements in technology for producing yeast on other
media.
--Successful development of an efficient process for pro-
ducing other proteins, such as growing bacteria in natu-
ral gas.
--The cost effectiveness of producing protein compared
with other sources of protein feed.
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SPAIN: Communist Party
25X1 The Spanish government's legalization of the Communist
ar y on Saturday reflects King Juan Carlos' and Prime Minis-
ter Suarez' commitment to completing the dismantling of the
Francoist political structure with a free parliamentary elec-
tion this summer. The timing of the move over the Easter holi-
day seems designed to reduce the chances of a violent reaction
from the still-potent right wing.
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The legislation will also reduce tensions between the
government and the opposition parties, whose leaders have been
insisting that the Communist Party be legalized. The party's
legal status will diminish the Communists' aura of martydom
and, by forcing them to compete openly, will reveal their ac-
tual electoral weakness. Government leaders believe the Commu-
nists will win no more than 8 percent of the vote.
The government had been unsuccessful in getting the
supreme Court to rule on the Communist Party issue. During the
past month, increasing numbers of Spaniards have apparently be-
gun to expect the legalization of the party before the election.
This changing mood may have impressed senior military officers,
who moved from outright opposition to legalization last fall to
an acceptance of the decision in February to let the Supreme
Court make a ruling. When the Supreme Court disqualified it-
self, Suarez undoubtedly consulted the military again and ob-
tained its agreement not to interfere.
I The government explained the legalization by comment-
ing a he doubt or presumption of illegality which had caused
it to refer the Communist question to the Supreme Court had
disappeared with the court's refusal to rule, and the govern-
ment had proceeded to register the party.
The initial reaction by the press and politicians has
been pre ictable, ranging from approval by Communists, through
satisfaction by the traditional opposition and centrist groups
close to the government, to sharp disapproval by the right.
I The government, having now legalized over 100 parties,
un o e y hopes that the necessity of organizing for the pro- 25X1
raised summer election will channel the activities of those who
disapprove of legalizing the Communist Party away from violent
protests.
CHINA: Grain Imports
I The drought threatening China's summer wheat harvest
an a por ion of the early rice crop may force additional grain
imports this year. Part of the 5.1 million tons of grain already
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purchased may have been a hedge against the prospect of a re-
duced summer wheat harvest. Only a highly unlikely combination
of poor summer and fall harvests would result in a need for
such large purchases that Peking would have to buy US grain,
and then only late in the year.
China's summer harvest--mostly winter wheat and early
rice--accounts for 35 to 40 percent of annual grain output.
Although less important than the fall harvest--which provides
most of the balance--it must bridge the gap between major crops
each year.
I I The poor harvest last fall, coupled with efforts to
conserve-foreign exchange last year, resulted in a tight grain
supply situation, which induced the new regime to step up grain
buying for 1977 delivery. This year's summer harvest will be
important in determining whether the Chinese will need to im-
port additional grain in 1977.
I Substantial rainfall is needed before mid-April in
the North China Plain to prevent heavy losses of winter wheat,
only about 40 percent of which is irrigated. Thus far, problems
with early rice are less severe than those of 1976, when too
much rain and too low temperatures forced repeated replanting
of seedlings. Rain usually begins in April in the affected
areas.
The precise amount of grain imports in 1977 will de-
pend on a crops now growing and yet to be planted and on the
amount of belt-tightening the new regime is willing to enforce
through rationing.
If the drought breaks by mid-April, winter wheat and
early rice output could be close to last year's excellent crops.
The currently programmed wheat imports would then be adequate,
and some could even be rescheduled for 1978, depending on the
size of this year's fall harvest.
if the drought continues, however, and output of sum-
mer grains and early rice falls about 10 percent below last
year's level, the already difficult grain supply and distribu-
tion problem would worsen. China would then have to accelerate
deliveries on contracts, and it might purchase additional grain.
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I IBoth Canada and Australia could speed deliveries,
and Canada could supply still more grain. Since China has been
reluctant over the past two years to conclude new contracts
for US grain, it is likely to turn to the US only if it decided
to buy for immediate delivery more than 1 million tons beyond
the 5 million tons already contracted.
It is unlikely that China would have poor summer and
a harvests in the same year. China uses multiple cropping,
and the weather rarely produces a poor harvest in both northern
and southern China in the same year.
I IGiven another poor fall harvest, however, China would
have to take delivery of all grain currently scheduled and seek
an additional 2 million to 3 million tons for delivery during
the second half of this year, for a total of 7 million to 8 mil-
lion tons for the year. Most of China's increased needs still
could be met with Canadian and Australian wheat. Barring unfore-
seen logistic problems or a deterioration in crop prospects in
those countries, China would probably not have to consider US
grain until very late in the year, if at all.
I Whatever China's grain import needs may be, foreign
exchange does not appear to be a major problem. China's trade
showed a surplus last year, easing pressure on the balance of
payments. With the usual 12- to 18-month credits, payments for
this year's grain imports would be spread into 1979. Signifi-
cantly increased grain imports, of course, might move Peking
to delay new purchases of Western technology.
INTERNATIONAL: Genetic Engineering Research
I IRecombinant DNA technology--which permits molecular
biology researchers to transplant functional genetic character-
istics from one species of living organism to another in a con-
trolled manner--is being studied by many governments with an
eye toward regulating future research. Some international or-
ganizations are attempting to help standardize these national
policies, but research regulation will probably remain a na-
tional matter. It will probably be years before legally binding
regulations are adopted in most countries.
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The formulation and implementation of regulations are
likely to 'proceed unevenly in various countries. Once adopted,
the regulations could:
--Influence the rate at which national research programs
progress relative to one another.
--Cause strained relations between countries that adopt
greatly dissimilar research regulations.
--Lead to the relocation of scientific talent to countries
with better facilities or the most permissive regulations.
The UK, which has extended existing health safety
legislation to cover genetic engineering, is the only nation
that has formally adopted a legal mechanism for controlling
such research. Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Israel, and most
West European countries are attempting to devise regulations,
and some have already created oversight committees or estab-
lished research guidelines. Their actions have been patterned
after guidelines established by the US National Institutes of
Health and the regulations adopted by the UK.
The USSR established a commission to draft research
guidelines in late 1976 and appointed a leading Soviet genetic
engineer, A. Bayev, as chairman. Bayev says the commission will
first draft a set of preliminary guidelines based largely on
those drawn up in the US. Soviet researchers have only limited
experience in genetic engineering, according to Bayev, but once
they are more familiar with the technology, the guidelines will
be revised and made final.
I IOnce the Soviet guidelines are officially adopted, by
action the minister of health, they will govern all civilian
scientific, industrial, and health research organizations; the
military will be excluded. The Soviet guidelines will regulate
recombinant DNA techniques only, while existing regulations
dealing with pathogens will be used to govern other aspects of
genetic engineering.
I The European Community is currently attempting to co-
ordinate the regulatory activities and decisions of its members
and most likely will adopt guidelines seeking the reporting of
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all genetic engineering research to the relevant national com-
mittee. The World Health Organization and the International
Council of Scientific Unions--a prestigious private organiza-
tion with no legal powers--are planning to hold formal discus-
sions on the issue of genetic engineering research guidelines
in the near future.
The possibility exists that recombinant DNA tech-
niques could be used to develop new organisms for biological
warfare. CIA considers it unlikely, although DIA disagrees,
that this technology can create biological warfare agents that
are dramatically more effective than those now known.
This could become a matter for international concern,
nowever, if some nation were to initiate an active biological
warfare program based on genetic engineering. The threat of
such weapons itself could prove an effective psychological
weapon.
I The fact that many countries are engaged in establish-
ing gui e ines for recombinant DNA research makes it clear that
such research efforts will continue and probably intensify in
the near future. Laboratory accidents causing significant bio-
logical damage are unlikely, but the newness of the techniques, 25X1
combined with the enormous complexity and relatively incomplete
knowledge of the molecular mechanisms of genetic communication
make it difficult to assess the actual risks and benefits.
I I
ZAIRE: Military Aid
//The French announced yesterday that they are fZy-
zng Moroccan military aid to Zaire. According to a spokesman in
French President Giscard's office, France is responding to a re-
quest from both Morocco and Zaire to facilitate the movement of
Moroccan troops and equipment to Shaba Region in Zaire. According
to press reports, France will make available 11 transports and
their crews for at least two days.//
/Franceohas been providing support to Zaire since
the invasion of Shaba began. In addition to munitions and mili-
tary equipment, France reportedly has also sent military ad-
visers.//
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Morocco announced Friday that it had begun sending mil-
itary units to Zaire. The number of military personnel that
Rabat intends to send is not known, but the Moroccans might
provide from several hundred to 1,500 men.
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Top Secret
(Security Classification)
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