NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030000010012-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 25, 2006
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: April 7, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

_
'
_Approv_e~(~T~#ease
2007/03/13 : CI
TO:
NAME AN DURESS
DATE
INITIALS
1
e
2
._?
3
4
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPARE REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOMMENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFDRMATION
SIGNATURE
REMARKS:
FROM:
NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO.
DATE
(Security Classification)
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
Thursday April 7, 1977 CG NIDC 77-080C
NATIONAL SECURITY INF
Unauthorized D'osclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
v
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
X17
25X1
1Securlty Classification)
Approved For Release 2007/03/13 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030000010012 4 25X1
~' ~ ~ ,
 25X1 gpproved For Release 2007/03/13 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030000010012-4
Approved For Release 2007/03/13 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030000010012-4
 Approved For Relea
National Intelligence Daily Cable for April 7, 1977.
The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing senior
US officials.
. Beginning April 7, NID cable articles will have a lead,
summary paragraph to assist the reader in scanning the cable.
CONTENTS
LEBANON: Situation Report
Page 1
25X1
25X1
MOZAMBIQUE - SOUTH AFRICA: Electricity
TURKEY: Parliamentary Election Date
OECD: Nuclear Export Policies
UK: Foreign Currency Bond Issue
Page 3
Page 4
Page 5
Page 7
Approved For Release 2007/03/13: CIA-RDP79T00975A030Q00010012-4
 Approved For
LEBANON: Situation Report
//Fighting apparently sZaelcened somewhat in southern
Lebanon yesterday, but both sides may be preparing for further
military activity.
(Yesterday's fighting was apparently at a reduced
eve 25X1
UN o servers note some exc anges o ar i ery, mac
gun, and mortar fire.
25X1
According to the US embassy in Beirut, it now
appears a artillery support for the Palestinian-leftist
forces in their counteroffensive against the Christians was
provided by the Syrian-controlled Saiqa organization, and not
by Syrian regulars. //Israeli Chief of Staff Gur on Tuesday
repeated earlier Israeli assertions that Israel had no evidence
of direct participation by the Syrian army in the fighting.//
Earlier this week, members of Fatah--the largest and
mos mo erate of the fedayeen organizations--were heavily in-
volved in the fighting for the first time. Fear that establish-
ment of a Christian buffer along the entire border with Israel
would eliminate any option for operations against Israel may
account for their participation.
//The Christians may also be preparing for
25X1
Approved For lease 2007/03/13: CIA-RDP79T00975 30000010012-4
 Approved Fob- Release 2007/03/13: CIA-RDP79T009751p030000010012-4
Ambassador Parker met with Phalangist leader Pierre Jumayyil
yesterday, however, and noted no signs of a mobilization.//
Approved) For Release 2007/03/13: CIA-RDP79T00975A03000001001 ~-4 25X1,
 Approved For Relea~
MOZAMBIQUE - SOUTH AFRICA: Electricity
Commercial sales of electricity generated by the Cabora-
Bassa power pro~jeet in Mozambique began Zate Zast month
most aZZ of the power is being sold to South Africa.
Initially three generating units with a capacity of
a ou , 0 megawatts will feed a new high voltage powerline
linking the dam with the South African power grid. The sched-
uled addition of two more units and another transmission line
early next year will bring total capacity to 2,000 megawatts,
roughly equivalent to that of Egypt's Aswan Dam.
The project was designed by Portugal to provide in-
,
expensive electricity to Mozambique and South Africa. The
planners hoped that it would eventually become the cornerstone
of the agricultural, mineral, and industrial development of
Mozambique's Zambezi Basin.
Despite Mozambique's harsh rhetoric against South
rica bite minority government, practical considerations
continue to prevail in such important economic relations as
the sale of electricity. Mozambique would like to reduce its
dependence on South Africa, but no other neighboring country
can use the large amount of power generated by the project.
/South Africa will probably continue to purchase
e ectrici y rom Mozambique as long as the price is favorable.
It also hopes to recover its investment of more than $30 mil-
lion in the project. Cabora-Bassa could provide up to 10 per-
cent of South Africa's electricity by 1980. South Africa, how-
ever, is likely to maintain a domestic reserve generating ca-
pacity equal to the amount it imports to guard against power
interruptions.//
25X1
Approved For Rele se 2007/03/13: CIA-RDP79T00975A030000 10012-4
 Approved Fo
Mozambique must export electricity in order to pay
or a oreign financing used in constructing the project; it
will receive only a small amount of the much-needed foreign ex-
change from the sale of electricity until the loans are repaid.
The potential agricultural and industrial benefits
o a ora-Bassa probably will not be realized in the near fu-
ture. Mozambique lacks the managerial, technical, and finan-
cial resources to develop the surrounding rP_c7inr~_
TURKEY: Parliamentary Election Date
An early parZiamentarz~ election designed to end the para-
lyzing divisions ra-ithin Turkez~~s our- arty coalition has been
officially scheduled for June ~.
Both Prime Minister Demirel's Justice Party and op-
pose ion Bader Ecevit's Republican Peoples Party hope to gain
enough votes to reduce the role of Deputy Prime Minister Er-
bakan's National Salvation Party, which has been obstruc-ting
progress on key domestic and foreign policy issues. Although
neither of Turkey's major parties is likely to win a clear ma-
jority, a newly elected government might have a freer hand to
tackle Turkey's problems when parliament reconvenes next fall.
In the meantime, no hard policy decisions are likely to be
made .
Erbakan, who opposes an early election because his
par y may lose votes, has announced that he will appeal the
election decision to the constitutional court. The court is
likely to reject the appeal.
In accordance with constitutional requirements, the
minis ers of interior, justice, and communications must be re-
placed by independents within five days of the announcement
that an election is to be held. Civil servants who wish to run
for office must resign their positions within a week. Candi-
dates for the 450 assembly seats and the 50 senatorial posts
must be selected by April 24.
Approved Igor Release 2007/03/13: CIA-RDP79T00~75A030000010012-4
 Approved For Relea
This short time period gives a distinct advantage to
incumbents and party regulars; this argument apparently was
used by the two major parties t~ et reluctant de uties to
back the early election proposal.
OECD: Nuclear Export Policies
//Nuclear export policies of the major countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development vary
zu2deZy depending on government views about the future role of
nuclear energy and the importance of the nuclear manufacturing
industry to the domestic economy. West Germany, France, Canada,
the UK, and Japan aZZ have large nuclear industries, but only
West Germany and France have significant export eapaeit?~.~
//France and West Germany are the most active
oreign exporters of nuclear equipment. In both countries, the
export drive is fueled by a mixture of economic and political
pressures; national pride also plays an important role.//
//A key issue is jobs. With the slowdown in their
omes is nuclear power programs, these countries see multi-
billion-dollar exports of reactors and other equipment and
services as the only way to maintain employment in the nuclear
industry. The West Germans, in particular, believe that the
nuclear power field is one of the industrial growth areas in
which their international competitiveness is strong. They think
reactor sales would suffer if they could not offer the complete
fuel cycle.//
//In contrast, the UK and Japan do not have the
in or range of nuclear products foreign buyers want, and
thus the value of their exports is relatively small. Both coun-
tries are willing to support US nonproliferation efforts but
are concerned that the US might eventually push for an inter-
national moratorium similar to that which they expect the US
to impose on its own reprocessing activities.//
//For London, a moratorium would eliminate a siz-
a e por ion of its potential foreign exchange earnings from
reprocessing and leave a major investment project practically
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Rele se 2007/03/13: CIA-RDP79T00975A0300 0010012-4
 Approved ~
worthless. Tokyo would view a moratorium as a major impediment
to achieving greater energy independence through development
of a nationally controlled nuclear fuel cycle.//
//Canada has been making a major effort to impose
s ric er sa eguards on its nuclear exports, but buyer resistance
to these safeguards may severely limit future foreign sales of
Canadian reactors. Canada also is under pressure to tighten
regulation of its domestic nuclear program.//
//While Canada now has the capability to export
for about every 18 months, additional export ca-
pacity could become available if, as seems likely, the govern-
ment adopts US-type safety features and licensing procedures
that would greatly slow the domestic nuclear construction pro-
gram.//
/These five countries, and the US and the USSR,
are c ar er members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, which has
adopted guidelines for nuclear exports. This group grew out of
a US initiative following the 1974 test of an Indian nuclear
device. In January 1976, it was expanded to include Czechoslo-
vakia, East Germany, Sweden, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands,
and Italy.//
//The group's guidelines require the imposition of
sa eguar s y the International Atomic Energy Agency on both the
facilities and materials actually exported, and on any facilities
built by the recipient country the designs of which could have
.been copied from the imported equipment. The IAEA, however, has
never safeguarded a reprocessing plant, nor can it impose any
sanctions against offenders.//
/Both West Germany and France have complied with
t e gui e Ines in their respective sales to Brazil and Pakistan.
Having cooperated to this extent, the two countries believe the
US has little justification for calling into question deals they
have already signed.
Approved For Release 2007/03/13: CIA-RDP79T009~5A030000010012-4
 Approved For Releas
UK: Foreign Currency Bond Issue
//The British government is trying to reduce potentially de-
stabilizing sterling balances outstanding by offering to ex-
change foreign currency bonds for sterling baZanees nox~ held by
about 25 overnments. These baZanees currently total roughly $4
biZ Zion.
//The major overseas sterling holders can choose
e ween ollar bonds with maturities of five, seven, or ten
years, and seven-year bonds denominated in West German marks,
Swiss francs, or Japanese yen. The bonds yield a slightly
higher rate than can currently be obtained on comparable Euro-
market debt and will be negotiable though not fully marketable.//
Approved For Release 2007/03/13: CIA-RDP79T00975A03Q000010012-4
 Approved Fob- Release 2007/03/13: CIA-RDP79T009~5A030000010012-4
//The bond issues are likely to have only limited
success, in part because sterling securities still carry rela-
tively high yields with minimal depreciation risk. Members of
the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which still
hold the bulk of overseas sterling, are not likely to convert
much of their sterling balances into long-term debt.//
Approved Ford Release 2007/03/13: CIA-RDP79T0097~A030000010012-4
 ~//~~ii 1
pproved For Release 2007/03/13 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030000010012-4
Top ecret
(Security Classification)
1
1
1
1
r
i
1
Top Secret
(Securit~srs~Y~a'[ib~'J' Release 2007/03/13 :CIA-RDP79T00975A030000010012-4