VALIDITY OF ESTIMATES ON SOVIET TACTICAL AIRCRAFT STRENGTHS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R00967A000900020027-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 3, 2006
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: April 28, 1964
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2006/08/09: CIA-RDP79R00967A000900020027-2
EG' ZET.
28 April 1964
R : Dr. Victor Heyman
Office of the Assistant Secretary of
` Defence (Comptroller)
Validity of Estimates on Soviet
Tactical Aircraft Strengths
1. In a reeceut conversation with representatives of this
office and of CIA/OR , you requested our written comments an
the reasons for revisions in National intelligence :.stinnitees of
the strength of Soviet Tactical Aviation in recent years, as well
as the reasons underlying current estimates of future trends in
Tactical Aviation. As we were all aware at the time of our
conversation, recent estimates have contiaed upward revisions
in estimated Soviet tactical air strength at present and over the
past several years.* The most recent estimate for the future
predicts a decline in total strength., but this decline is more
gradual than that predicted or implied in earlier estimates.
modernisation of the force through the introduction of current
and advanced model &Ircraft and the retirement of older model
aircraft Is predicted.
2. The national estimates of 1960 and 1961 were heavil
influence
that the U embarked on a major military reorganization
and force reduction, which was to include sharp cuts In theater
force manpower and obsolescent equipment. - hilee it still seen s
clear that the Soviets iaa needed to carry out substantial reductions,
we have found In retrospect that the cuts in Tactical Aviation were
Seea the detaile4 review of pertinent estimates since 1959,
provided to you by CIA/O.ORR. in h4arch 1964.
,MORI/CDF,
dr~l
Approved For Release 2006/08/09: CIA-RDP79R00967A000900020027-2
 Approved For Release 2006/08/09: CIA-RDP79R00967A000900020027-2
SECRET,
*cipitous or
l loved to
s the contributors to national
prepared. ak-arTAO
reductions rather than car
and military roan sons.
The notional estimate
1 aircraft h
ce redoeti ns
#.
bore at tacti+ air bases. Ado the
craft, is not fly understood, we
that they are active and not m+ balled.
re.
tbuaed retention of older nio atrcra t
production and delivery of newer model
.
The eattviate of *arty 196
aaaastl estate dealing speeci#lt*ll
Aviation, w W and as you know, it super
this estimate predicts a draddnsl declin
five years or so. a c
recent
Tactical
eahna
aircraft will be phased + bac
eleaaecea does not suggest that the production
A will be stopped up to rates comparable
. Newer model tactical aircraft are
more complicated than their pred.cessors,
Lug requirements are greater.
?tons, the improved performance as arena cent
ewa missile defene
forces.
round forces
mcertataty
ctical
Aviation, especially in light of the changes in the Diet progr
Factors which might influence the i3.. to maintain a larger
force of tactical atrc-raft than we have estimated include: a
has account of the avat
ty of Communist China; low Soviet confidence in
surface-to-air missile systuns to provide
grouse forces. the other 3eered, the
+er a very sharp cut to tactical air
tee
cause them to r
they instituted to I'
ors and reduced international tensions
tat eUigeaacs estimates hold
is likely to he decisive. Thvio
invited warfare with the West; significant
make seer toes preparations for the contingency
'T forces in Zurope greater Soviet concern
forces are like
M
various factors
conclude that changes In
be grradosl rather than drastic.
/S/
LN "NI
ssistas.t Director
National Lsttmate1
Approved For Release 2006/08/09: CIA-RDP79R00967AO00900020027-2
ore* r