EL SALVADOR: THE INSURGENTS' OFFENSIVE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP84B00049R001202920027-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 6, 2006
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: October 23, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2006/05/25 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001202920027-2
TeV Secret
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Special Analysis
SALVAV0R: The Insurgents' Offensive
The guerrillas' latest offensive is primarily aimed at enhanc-
ing their prospects in negotiations. The attacks, which generally
have been against highly vulnerable military and economic targets,
are intended to demonstrate a 'continuing ability to inflict losses
on government forces and to disrupt the economy. The insurgents
have not scored any major successes, however and thus are not
likely to force a dialogue on their terms. 25X1
The offensive appears to be nearing an end, although
-sabotage o erations and small-scale harassing actions
continue.
The government still has not used
battalions to retake lost territory. The Army
anticipates another major insurgent attack and
hold its elite units in reserve. As a result,
gents apparently have been able to consolidate
and seize several additional towns in northern
and Morazan Departments.
reportedly
wants to
the insur-
their gains
Chalatenango
Secret
23 October 1982
Approved For Release 2006/05/25 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001202920027-2
 Approved For Release 2006/05/25 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001202920027-2
Secret
Mixed Results
This strategy has been only partially successful.
The insurgents have overrun several small towns in
Chalatenango and Morazan and captured or killed over 100
government troops, but they have not seized large popula-
tion centers or trapped key Army units. Although their
sabotage campaign has disrupted the transportation, com-
munication, and electrical power systems in various re-
gions, it has not caused any serious damage to the
infrastructure.
The insurgents nevertheless have displayed close
coordination among their several factions, which they
have not been able to do in the past. They also have
shown that, despite the successful elections in March
and the several subsequent military campaigns against
them, they can still carry out disruptive actions. In
addition, their ability to launch another offensive
indicates they continue. to receive arms from Nicaragua.
Outlook
It is as yet unclear what impact the offensive will
have on existing political strains in the government
and military. Defense Minister Garcia already is under
attack from rightwing backers of Assembly President
D'Aubuisson for his support of political and economic
reforms and for his alleged poor handling of the war
effort. Although the Army's failure to launch an im-
mediate counteroffensive may have been good tactics, it
probably will im rove the position of those seeking to
replace Garcia.
The offensive also may have strengthened the hand
of those who oppose negotiations. They can now argue
that this is no time to talk.
.Tep Secret
Approved For Release 2006/05/25: CIA-RDP84B00049R001202920027-2
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Treng- Secret
President Magana's plan to form a peace commission
to engage leftist political leaders in a dialogue prob-
ably will be delayed.further. His objective is to split
the leftist political leaders from insurgent militants
and bring them into the electoral process before the
scheduled elections in March 1984.
Although the offensive is likely to cause new prob-
lems for the government, it has not changed the basic
military balance in the guerrillas' favor. Nonetheless,
the continued military stalemate will not help the gov-
ernment's worsening political and economic problems.
D
!'ep. Secret
a
Approved For Release 2006/05/25: CIA-RDP84B00049R001202920027-2
 25X1 Approved For Release 2006/05/25 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001202920027-2
Approved For Release 2006/05/25 : CIA-RDP84B00049R001202920027-2