NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029700010014-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 7, 2004
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: January 10, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

Pr AW AW AW AW
AW AW AV AW AAV Ar.
~ppr pC a ease 2004/12/2 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0297000f001 JeCret
NAME AND DRESS DATE INITIALS
(Security Classification)
0
25X1
PREPARE REPLY
RECOMMENDATION
RETURN
SIGNATURE
CONTROL NO.
25X1
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
Monday January 10, 1977 CG NIDC 77-007C
25X1
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
0
0
0
0
Top Secret_ 0
(Security Classification)
Approved For Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO2970001 014-7
 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29700010014-7
Approved For Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29700010014-7
 Approved For Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975429700010014-7 25X1
25X1
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Monday, January 10, 1976,
11 1
The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
CHINA: Continuing Political Divisions
World Coffee: No Relief in Sight
USSR: Oil Recovery
Page 1
Page 2
Page 3
25X1
BOTSWANA-RHODESIA: Political Refugees
Page 7
25X1
Approved For 4elease 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0 9700010014-7
 Approved For Rele$se 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A029V00010014-7 25X1
25X1 .
CHINA: Continuing Political Divisions
I lActivities in China observing the first anniversary
of the death of Chou En-lai reflect a continuing division among
China's leaders over the future of former vice premier Teng
Hsiao-ping. Wall posters appearing in Peking
called tor Teng's return and criticized Politburo
member Wu Te, who may have had a hand in events leading to Teng's
ouster last spring.
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Wu, who also serves as the party leader of Peking
municipality, last April urged crowds to disperse during the
rioting in Peking that led to Teng's fall. The rioting grew out
of removal of wreaths honoring Chou. Wu is now charged with
suppressing those expressions of grief for Chou and for char-
acterizing the riots as counter-revolutionary.//
urge publicly the continued criticism of Teng. Rumors that Wu
is in political difficulty have been circulating in China since
his call in November to denounce Teng.//
In addition, Wu is the last Politburo member to
//A poster implicating Peking Military Region com-
mander and Politburo member Chen Hsi-lien in suppressing the
riots in April also has been reported in a Western press account
of memorial activities. If substantiated, this would be the first
public criticism of Chen in some time. Chen's role in the re-
moval of Teng and his position on Teng's rehabilitation, how-
ever, are not clear. According to some accounts, Chen persuaded
Teng to accept quietly Hua Kuo-feng's promotion to acting pre-
mier last January.//
the leadership since the leftist Politburo members were purged
in October. The "gang of four" were chiefly responsible for
Teng's ouster but could not have accomplished it without the
support of other Politburo members. The posters in Peking are
the most obvious signs to date of an attempt to pressure those
who may have opposed Teng last year and continue to block his
return.//
//The issue of Teng's rehabilitation has occupied
25X1 he posters calling for Teng's return and criticizing
Wu and Chen appeared with many others praising Chou or attack-
ing the "gang of four." Authorities in Peking have made no
25X1
Approved For 4elease 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0297 0010014-7
 Approved For Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975AI029700010014-7 25X1
apparent effort to remove the politically sensitive posters--
although some have been damaged--or to disperse crowds reading
them. No posters critical of Hua have been observed; some
posters quoted in Western accounts were careful to treat the
party chairman with proper respect.
No high-ranking leader in Peking has been associated
with the memorial activities, which evidently have been carried
out in an almost holiday-like atmosphere. Some foreigners thought
that they had been invited to a memorial ceremony on Saturday
which the leadership would attend. Such a gathering, however,
has not been reported.
World Coffee: No Relief in Sight
World green coffee prices, which increased by 20 per-
cent in December and more than tripled over the past 18 months,
may rise even further this year because of reduced production,
strong demand, and low stock levels. Retail prices, which lag
behind green coffee prices by about six months, will continue
their steep rise as higher priced coffee moves onto the market.
World coffee production for the current marketing
year is expected to be 25 percent below normal levels; world
stocks have already fallen to the lowest level since the early
1950s. Brazil's production, which normally accounts for about
one third of world output, fell from 1.7 million tons in 1975
to less than 600,000 tons in 1976 because of a freeze that
reportedly damaged 75 percent of its coffee trees. Earlier
this week, Brazilian officials predicated that the 1977 crop
will reach only about 780,000 to 840,000 tons, down from the
previous projection of 900,000 tons.
Declining stocks in producer countries such as Brazil,
Colombia, and Ivory Coast are a major concern in the world cof-
fee market. The Executive Board of the International Coffee
organization will meet later this month to determine the exact
size of producers' stocks.
I Brazil announced its stocks were down to 1.2 million
tons on January 1 and will decline to 900,000 tons by the end
of the year. Brazil raised coffee export taxes and minimum ex-
port prices sharply to conserve stocks, raising world prices.
Approved For R4
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Rel+ase 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A029V700010014-7 25X1
Traders are contracting for even larger amounts of coffee, ex-
pecting that prices will be raised again and that Brazil's
foreign sales may be halted until the July frost season has
passed.
Even with its poor 1976 crop, Brazil exported 936,000
tons ot coffee in 1976, 7 percent more than in 1975. Higher
prices resulted in a doubling of foreign exchange earnings
from coffee. Earnings, in 1977 will increase substantially over
the 1976 level, even if exports are held to 720,000 tons as
Brazil now plans.
USSR: Oil Recovery
Because of the high cost of developing oil reserves
in remote regions, the USSR is planning a high priority pro-
gram to recover an additional 10 percent of their known oil
reserves through intensive use of enhanced recovery techniques.
The Committee on Science and Technology of the Council of Min-
isters is coordinating the new plan, which calls for:
--Timetables for adopting new recovery methods throughout
the USSR.
--Creation of a special. association within the Ministry
of Petroleum to develop and introduce advanced methods
of oil recovery.
--A special fund to reimburse oil production enterprises
for the higher costs of the new technologies.
--Construction of new plants to produce special chemicals
in quantity.
--Mass production of specialized equipment, and training
workers in the new equipment and technology.
The USSR already uses waterflooding in about 85 per-
cent of its total oil production. Waterflooding is commonly
used in other countries as a secondary recovery method, but
the Soviets use it to maintain pressure soon after oil produc-
tion begins. They inject large volumes of water at high pres-
sures which often causes damage to the reservoirs and subse-
quent loss of recoverable oil.
Approved For
25X1
 Approved For R$
The Soviets have only limited experience with most
other enhanced recovery techniques, although they have tried
every major secondary and tertiary recovery technique on an
experimental or pilot basis at at least one oil field.
I Two areas in which the Soviets have considerable ex-
pertise are nuclear stimulation, in which an atomic blast is
used to crack the rock making it easier for the oil to collect
in the reservoir, and the recovery of very heavy oils. The So-
viets have relied extensively on thermal recovery methods for
heavy oils.
Steam injection has been employed in fields at Okha,
Boryslav, and Baku. Internal combustion, in which oil at the
periphery of the deposit is set on fire to heat the rest of
the oil making it flow easier, has been used in Baku and in
other regions with heavy oils. The usual practice is to lower
an electric heater into the wells to ignite the oil.
I Hot water injection methods have been used in regions
where ig paraffin content causes the oils to flow poorly at
temperatures below 30 degrees centigrade. in other cases, ex-
tremely viscous oils have been recovered by using a combination
of underground mining with steam and combustion techniques.
I I The research and test programs needed to support the
latest en anced recovery program will be conducted by ten re-
gional oil field research laboratories under the direction of
the All Union Oil and Gas Research Institute in Moscow. Each
regional laboratory will focus on techniques having direct ap-
plication to oil fields within its region. The older oil fields
near Baku have apparently been selected as the major testing
ground for many of the techniques to be developed.
I IThe Soviets have set an ambitious goal in the pres-
ent ive-year plan to increase crude oil production, including
gas condensate, from about 491 million tons in 1975 to 640 mil-
lion tons in 1980. The annual 30-million-ton increase needed
to meet this goal is unlikely to be attained.
I Reserves in the older producing regions are being
depleted and new discovery has not kept pace with the rate of
increase in production. The drilling alone that would be re-
quired to provide 530 to 540 million tons of new production
25X1
Approved For R$Iease 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0129700010014-7
 25X1
25X1
Approved For
29700010014-7
capacity--including at least 390 million tons to offset deple-
tion of old fields--is an overwhelming task.
The enhanced recovery program with its goals of a
10- to 12-percent increase in recovered oil is at best a long-
term prospect--even if the Soviets decide to import chemicals,
equipment, and technology from the West.
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Rp'
 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29700010014-7
Approved For Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29700010014-7
 Approved For Rilease 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975~029700010014-7 25X1
25X1
BOTSWANA-RHODESIA: Political Refugees
I otswana's refugee problem, termed critical in mid-
December by the acting foreign minister, is being aggravated by
a large influx of black Rhodesians.
According to a high cabinet official, the number of
Rhodesians in Francistown near the border is now over 850; 300
arrived on Thursday. He said the latest arrivals were nearly
all young followers of Joshua Nkomo's black nationalist group.
They asserted they were fleeing "voluntary" military service
with the white regime.
Many of the refugees were being flown out, with
Nkomo's group paying the costs. They presumably eventually will
provide much-needed manpower for the Rhodesian guerrillas op-
erating out of Zambia. Nkomo's faction has been trying to in-
crease its military activity across the Zambia-Rhodesia border,
but its guerrilla force is much smaller than the rival nationalist
faction which operates out of Mozambique.
I otswana fears that the presence of these refugees
wi prov, e the Rhodesian security forces with a pretext for
further raids across the border, which Botswana's mobile police
is unable to guard.
Approved For
 AW Approved For Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29700010014-7
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
Top Secret
-- ftproved for Release 2004/12/21 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29700010014-7
(Security Classification)
i