NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010008-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 1, 2008
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: November 4, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Thursday November 4, 1976
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Thursday November 4, 1976.
LEBANON: Situation Report
ANGOLA: Party Decisions
IRAQ-SYRIA: Increasing Tension
ALBANIA: Party Line Toward China
USSR: Barents Sea Dispute
ITALY: Concessions to Communists
PORTUGAL: Conflict in Socialist Party
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LEBANON: Situation Report
Lebanese President Sarkis is in the final stage of
reviewing a plan for implementing the cease-fire agreement and
is expected to unveil and explain it before the end of the week.
According to the original timetable established at the Riyadh
summit, an expanded Arab League peace-keeping force was supposed
to be assembled in Lebanon by tomorrow; the drawn out negotia-
tions over how the forces should be deployed and the slow dis-
patch of additional peace-keeping troops will cause some delay,
however.
Troop movements from Syria to Lebanon early this week
apparently involved Syrian forces only. The Saudi and Sudanese
contributions to the force have apparently not yet arrived.
An independent Beirut newspaper said yesterday that
arcis as told his advisers he will not begin implementing the
peace plan with only Syrian troops but will wait for the arri-
val of other Arab forces.
Neither Sarkis nor any of the Arab League mediators
has made further comments on a plan to incorporate soldiers
from the regular Lebanese army in the League force.
Unusually optimistic statements yesterday from Chris-
tian leaders Pierre Jumayyil and Camille Shamun on the prospects
for peace suggest that some such plan has been adopted. In an
about face, the two leaders are now publicly praising the ef-
forts of League negotiators and the "new" understanding among
other Arab leaders of "realities" in Lebanon.
Leftist leader Kamal Jumblatt has reacted to Christian
optimism with suspicion and yesterday raised new conditions for
his compliance with the Riyadh agreement. Among those that will
be totally unacceptable to other parties to the dispute are his
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demands that Egypt contribute troops to the League force and
that 8,000-10,000 peace-keeping troops be used in the first
phase of implementing the cease-fire. Egypt has repeatedly said
that it will not participate directly in the peace-keeping op-
eration.
//A senior Syrian military officer in an unusually
frank exchange with a US official yesterday acknowledged that
some Palestinians were moving back into the Arqub region and
southern Lebanon, and that more would be going to these areas.
Although the Syrian officer did not confirm that the Syrians
were encouraging this movement, as other sources have suggested,
he implied as much.//
//The Syrian officer emphasized that the Cairo ac-
cords guaranteed the Palestinians the right to operate from the
Arqub and that Damascus, in turn, endorsed the Cairo accords.
He also stressed that as a result of the fall of Tall Zatar and
other Palestinian camps, many had no other place to go except
the south.//
//The Syrians have heretofore avoided discussing
issues involving the return of Palestinians to these areas be-
cause of Israel's repeated warnings that it will not tolerate
a resumption of Palestinian cross-border raids and other anti-
Israeli activity. The Syrian officer's remarks, however, should
not be taken as an indication that Damascus plans to encourage
fedayeen operations against Israel or that Syria has abandoned
its principal goal of reining in the Palestinians in areas
where they can be brought under effective Syrian military con-
trol.//
There is as yet no evidence that large numbers of
Palestinians are moving southward. Some units of the Palestine
Liberation Army, which are thought to be under Syria's control,
recently returned to southern Lebanon, and it is possible that
Syria intends to use these and its other Palestinian assets to
help control the activity of militant groups.
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ANGOLA: Party Decisions
Angolan President Agostinho Neto is assuming the
functions of prime minister, thereby becoming head of government
as well as chief of state and party leader of the Popular Move-
ment. This announcement was included in a lengthy statement
issued after a recently concluded Central Committee plenary
session. No new position has been announced for former prime
minister Nascimento.
The statement also sets forth a broad-ranging program
for Angola's political and economic development that carries a
strong Marxist thrust, calling for goals to be pursued in the
context of "scientific socialism." This follows Neto's signature
in Moscow last month of a Soviet-Angola "friendship treaty" and
a party-to-party agreement.
The new program and Neto's becoming Angola's paramount
political figure may have constituted a package put together to
accommodate factional differences within the Popular Movement.
Some elements of the program differ considerably from policies
that Neto earlier espoused.
Heretofore, Neto has been identified with efforts to
broaden Angola's economic and political ties with the West and
to follow a policy of nonalignment. The statement includes ref-
erences to such policies, but places heavy stress on Angola's
special relations with the USSR and Cuba.
In the economic sector, the new program calls for
strong state control over the economy through nationalization
and centralized planning. Provision is made for a private sec-
tor, but it is to be subjected to strict controls. Until now,
the Angolan government has appeared anxious to maintain Angola's
access to Western markets and technology.
The Popular Movement is charged with a major role in
mobilizing popular support for the regime. It will have direct
authority over all mass organizations and will assume the func-
tions of the information ministry, which is to be abolished
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The Central Committee also approved a five-year plan
for reorganizing and upgrading the country's armed forces. This
will undoubtedly be carried out under Soviet and Cuban direc-
tion.
he Central Committee's announcement is
not likely to -sit well with some of Angola's neighbors, who
were upset by the Angolan-Soviet friendship treaty.
The announcement is also likely to be viewed by Zair-
is a Soviet client.
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IRAQ-SYRIA: Increasing Tension
Iraq's closure of its border with Syria on Tuesday and
the withdrawal of the Iraqi ambassador from Syria yesterday are
the latest expressions of Baghdad's frustration over the Cairo
summit's legitimization of Syria's role in Lebanon. The Baghdad
press left no doubt as to Iraq's motive for recalling its am-
bassador, assailing Damascus' intervention in Lebanon.
The timing of the Iraqi military activity near the
border could be a signal that Baghdad is still not prepared to
accept, as have most other Arabs, Syria's dominant role in Leba-
non. A test of air raid sirens and a blackout drill scheduled
for next Monday in Baghdad is unusual and may be part of Iraq's
campaign of nerves intended to create more tension in its rela-
tions with Damascus and build up anti-Syrian opinion.
There are signs, however, that the Iraqis are becoming 25X1
uncomfortable with their isolated stance on Lebanon, one that
puts them in the exposed position of being opposed to Cairo
summit resolutions aimed at ending the fighting in Lebanon. An
Iraqi broadcast on Tuesday reporting a visit by an emissary of
Lebanese President Sarkis, stressed that Iraq would work to re-
store peace in Lebanon and implied that it would contribute
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ALBANIA: Party Line Toward China
Party chief Hoxha's line toward China at the Albanian
party congress this week was more guarded than at the Albanian
congress in 1971, but it was not as negative as has been por-
trayed in the press. Relations with China have cooled some what
since 1971, and the uncertainties of dealing with the new Chi-
nese leadership apparently prompted some Albanian reserve.
Hoxha gave priority to China, however, in the foreign
policy section of his speech. He praised Chinese economic and
material assistance, although he told his audience that self-
reliance was the watchword for the Albanian people.
Hoxha lauded Mao Tse-tung and noted the "counterrevo-
lutionary plots" of Lin Piao and Teng Hsiao-ping. He made no
reference, however, to the new Chinese leaders, nor did he men-
tion the recent purge of Chinese leftists. One of the ousted
Chinese radicals, Politburo member and propagandist Yao Wen-yuan,
had received an enthusiastic welcome in late 1974 on a visit to
Tirana.
Informed diplomats in Tirana have reported a cooling
in relations between China and Albania. After a recent visit to
the Albanian capital, a French commercial delegation emphasized,
however, that China remains Albania's leading trade partner with
about 50 percent of the country's trade.
The French believe that the Albanians are not satisfied
with their trade with Eastern Europe and are very cautiously
thinking of enlarging economic contacts with the West.
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This is a course that has been urged by the Chinese for
some time. Hoxha devoted a large part of his foreign policy com-
ments to the need for maintaining ideological defenses, but at
the same time pursuing economic and trade relations with the
outside world.
USSR: Barents Sea Dispute
The Soviets fired three ICBMs into a disputed area
of the Barents Sea on Tuesday.
The USSR and Norway have been negotiating over
the continental shelf boundary in the Barents Sea for more than
two years. //Norway speculates that the missile firings may be
intended to strengthen the Soviet position in the negotia-
tions.// The Soviets apparently are concerned that economic
development of the area by Norway might restrict their use of
the passage between Svalbard and the Norwegian mainland.
In addition to the possible influence on negotia-
tions with Norway, however, these missile launches may serve
other purposes. The Soviets are dismantling their SS-7 launchers
to conform to requirements of the interim agreement on strategic
offensive arms, and the firings are an expeditious means of
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Italian Prime Minister Andreotti has moved to com-
promise with the Communists on the formulation of economic
policy by agreeing to bilateral consultations with them and the
leaders of other parties on further economic austerity measures.
The concession by Andreotti prompted the postponement
of the cabinet meeting that had been slated to discuss the eco-
nomic program prior to the parliamentary debate next week.
Communist Party chief Berlinguer had proposed last
week that- the government meet in a conference with all non-
government parties, except the neo-fascists, to discuss the
proposed austerity program, which Berlinguer termed inadequate.
The Christian Democrats rejected Berlinguer's formula--which
would have been a long step toward the Communists' demand for
an "emergency government"--but the Prime Minister has sought
to soften his party's action by offering to meet formally with
the Communists.
The arrangement allows the Communists to present a
victory of sorts to their rank and file, who continue to question
whether the party is getting enough in return for its present
cooperation with the government. This concession is not likely
to satisfy the Communist leaders for long, however, and further
demands for tangible evidence of their influence on the govern-
ment are almost certain.
The parliamentary debate on the austerity measures,
which wi begin next Wednesday, could be stormy. Two parties
are already preparing to challenge the economic program. The
Socialists, feeling themselves badly outmaneuvered by the Com-
munists, reportedly are preparing to submit their own alterna-
tive austerity program during the debate. The fiscally con-
servative Republicans apparently plan to offer suggestions
designed to frustrate Andreotti's efforts to tread a fine line
between the demands of the unions and those of the non-communist
parties which continue to support his government through their
abstentions.
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PORTUGAL: Conflict in Socialist Party
The resignation yesterday of Portuguese Agriculture
Minister Lopes Cardoso, one of two left-wing Socialists in the
cabinet, points up the continuing strains within the ruling
Socialist Party.
The strains between the Marxist left wing and the so-
cial democratic faction were also evident at the party congress
last weekend. The two factions avoided an open split, but Prime
Minister Soares and his more conservative wing failed to get
leftist support for a single slate of candidates for the party's
national committee. The leftists, led by Lopes Cardoso, presented
a rival slate and eventually secured a third of the national com-
mittee seats.
The reasons for Lopes Cardoso's apparently voluntary
resignation two days after the congress are not known, but the
militant Conservative Farmers Confederation has been pressing
for his removal for the past year. Lopes Cardoso has won the sup-
port of the Communists and other leftists with his backing of
the agrarian reform legislation formulated under the pro-Commu-
nist Goncalves regime, which was strongly criticized by Prime
Minister Soares at the recent party congress.
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~Eanes apparently believes that the removal of the
leftists will make the cabinet more decisive. His hopes are
likely to be disappointed, however, and before long Soares is
likely to come under pressure from the President for further
action to improve the government's performance.
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