NEW NIC CHAIRMAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-01137R000100080001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 14, 2005
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 6, 1981
• Content Type: REPORT

STAT Approved For Release 2006/01/03 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100080001-0
Approved For Release 2006/01/03 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000100080001-0
 .`_.,,,. pproved For Release 2006/01/03 : CIA-RDP90-01137
WASHINGTON POST
_rl . 30 November 1985
Science Adviser Keyworth
To Leave White House Job
By Philip J. Hilts
W;uhinRmn Poa[ Staff Writer
White House science adviser
George A. Keyworth II, one of the
administration's chief promoters of
President Reagan's Strategic De-
fense Initiative, said yesterday that
he will resign and form a company
to help corporations build up intel-
ligence-gathering systems.
Keyworth said he has done what
he could in four years and thought it
wise to leave the job at "a happy
point."
He said he believes that the mis-
sile defense research program is
well under way, that science fund-
ing has been boosted and that co-
operation between industry and uni-
versities has been pushed along.
Keyworth said he was not leaving
because of any conflict in the ad-
ministration.
Asked why he wanted to leave
when things were going well, he
said, "I have been here pushing five
years now. I think the president
needs some fresh blood. When I
walk into a room everybody knows
what I'm going to say.
"Also, I simply want to leave," he
said. "I am beginning to be envious.
The real action is out there in in-
dustries that are trying to find a
new competitive spirit, motivated
by the hot breath of competition on
their necks. That's very exciting."
He said he reads with envy of the
corporate battles of such companies
as IBM against foreign challenges.
"I want some," he said.
~Ke worth said he plans to start a
new business with Herbert Meyer
.
former special assistant to Central
Intelligence Agency Director Wil-
liam . Casey, and now vice chair-
man of the National Intelligence
Coui jl. The council drafts-ititelli
gence estimates from data devel-
a a dozen agencies.
Keyworth's new business will of-
fer to set up intelligence-gathering
systems for companies to gather
information about potential mar-
kets. The company will not gather
intelligence, but will show clients
how to find and analyze political,
DR. GEORGE A. KEYWORTH II
... a leading "Star Wars" advocate
economic, cultural and other infor-
mation for use in foreign markets.
The accomplishments Keyworth,
46, said he was proudest of are his
work for the "Star Wars" research
program, his work to bring greater
cooperation between industry and
universities and his role in building
science budgets.
Perhaps-the two most controver-
sial aspects of Keyworth's tenure
have been his strong advocacy of
the strategic defense initiative and
his reversal of the historical role of
the president's science adviser.
From the day he took the job, Key-
worth said he would not be a con-
duit into the White House for
American science as previous ad-
visers have.
Instead, he would be part of the
White House "team." He also set up
the White House Science Council, a
low-profile body of scientists offer-
ing information to the administra-
tion. It was not a forum for debate
like the previous body, the Science
Advisory Committee.
Keyworth said he did not tell any-
one in government of his leaving until
Wednesday, when he informed White
House chief of staff Donald T. Regan.
He will leave office by Dec. 31.
"He is going to be missed," said
William Carey, executive officer of
the American Association for the
Advancement of Science, largest
scientific body in the United States.
"Keyworth has developed over his
five years in the job into an effective
and sometimes aggressive advocate
of fundamental research."
Other leaders in science have
said Keyworth's ability to keep sci-
ence funding high while other bud-
gets were being cut was his chief
accomplishment.
But Carey said Keyworth has re-
cently expressed apprehension
about the proapects for keeping up
government support for science.
"He has been trying to warn the
scientific community that there are
dark days ahead," Carey said. "I
can't look into his mind, but I think
he saw a period of budgetary siege
approaching and that he might not
be able to see effectively to protec-
tion of research.
"Perhaps we could have been
helped if Keyworth stayed on," Car-
ey said. He noted that it will be a
difficult time for a successor now,
just before budget deficits lead to
cutting of "discretionary" budgets
such as those for basic research. .
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WASHINGTON TD ES
21 September 1984
CIA gays novae
t er ail "hasu-f-%
By Michael J. Bonafield
7HE WASHINGTON TIMES
The Soviet Union is "the world's
last em ire,"which "after 67 years
of communism ... has entered its
terminal phase" an analysis pre-
pare for the CIA says.
The ocur=t. written for CIA__
Director William Casey in late June
bvHerbert E. Meyer, vice chairman
of the National Intelligence Coun-
cil, describes the Soviet Union as a
termtn`ally -ill `giant th1 t eft tr o its
own devices will collapse unless
sweeping reforms are instituted.
The National Intelligence Coun-
cillapart of the CIA, is made up of
individuals who are experts in a
variety of fields. NIC coordinates
its research for dissemination to
the CIA director and o t h e r key 1 ~ o v -
e r n m e n t officials. Mr. Mere s ana-
lvsis was marked"unclassi_ted
Citing studies by Marshall
Goldman of Harvard University's
Russian Research Center,-the`ana-
lysis reports "that food is in short
supply outside the Moscow-
Leningrad area, and that rationing
has been imposed in 12 cities." The
document does not name the cities.
"According'to recent issues of
published Soviet medical litera
ture;' Mr. Meyer writes, "five of
seven key communicable diseases
are now out of control: polio, diph-
theria, scarlet fever, whooping
cough, measles"
Mr. Meyer cites Georgetown Uni-
versity demographer Murray
Feshbach, as reporting that "so
high is the incidence of measles
that it now stands fractionally
below the level at which epidemi-
ologists attribute the problem to.
mass malnutrition:'
Infant mortality in the U.S.S.R.,
Mr. Meyer says, "is rising and life
expectancy is falling."
The analysis describes a deep
sense of pessimism that "has taken
hold among the Soviet people," a
reflection of which is the abortion
rate.
Mr. Meyer says the nation's abor-
tion rate "as a whole is between 60
percent and 70 percent, and ... for
Slavs and Balts is 75 percent to 80
percent."
"We simply cannot attribute
these staggering rates entirely to
the low quality of available birth-
control products and to decisions
by sensible, practical parents to
limit the size of their families," he
writes. "Rather, we must view these
rates, at least partly, as an indica-
tion of the average couple's judg-
ment of life in the Soviet Union."
Referring to. remarks by Frank
Shakespeare, who supervises
Radio Free Europe and Radio
Liberty, Mr. Meyer says, "These
abortion rates reflect a vision of the
future that is bleak and despairing,
almost to the point of national sui-
cide."
The CIA report calls the U.S.S.R.
"a demographic basket case.
Citing the declining birthrate
among Russians, the pre-eminent
ethnic group in the country, Mr.
Meyer says, "In the coming years,
the able-bodied working-age pop-
ulation of the Russian Republic,
which contains roughly two-thirds
of the Soviet Union's total industrial
production capacity, will actually
decline"
That means, he says, "High birth
rates in the Moslem republics have
begun to soak up vast amounts of
investment for schools, hospitals,
roads_ and so forth."
As a result, Mr. Meyer adds,
"Fewer and fewer Russians must
work harder and harder to support
more and more non-Russians."
Only about half the population, he
says, can speak Russian.
The Soviet Union is composed of
15 autonomous republics, of which
the Russian Soviet Federated
Socialist Republic is the largest
and, traditionally, the pool from
which the leadership is drawn.
"After 67 years of communist
rule;' the document says, "the
Soviet Union remains a 19th
century-style empire, comprised
of more than 100 nationality groups
and dominated by the Russians.
There is not one major nationality
group that is content with the
present, Russian-controlled
Approved Fosrl leasen2ot /O3tMtARD
yearn for its political and economic
freedom"
Arguing that the imperial system
itself is fatally flawed, the analysis
asserts that, "At long last, history
seems to be catching up with the
world's last surviving empire."
Citing the Kremlin's "over-
emphasis" on military production,
Mr. Meyer charges that this has
"wrecked the country's civilian
industrial and technological base."
"The Soviets have failed miser-
ably to generate the kinds of inno-
vations on which modern
technologies are increasingly
dependent: robotics, micro-
electronics, computerized commu-
nications and information-
processing systems," Mr. Meyer
says.
The U.S.S.R. now can produce lit-
tle but weapons, the intelligence
report says. As a result, the econ-
omy "has become stagnant and may
even be starting to shrink- a trend
that already has begun to, make
even production of weapons more
costly and inefficient"
The Kremlin leadership under-
stands these problems and has
begun to realize "that something
has gone hideously wrong," Mr.
Meyer says.
He suggests that the Politburo,
which includes the nation's top
leaders and wields autocratic
power, faces one of three courses:
make fundamental reforms, fail to
correct the "downward spiral," or
choose a high-risk course "to
change the correlation of forces"--.
military jargon for initiating war
with.the United States.
The CIA document outlines
options for the United States during
this period. It urges Washington
"-D 1 o.po out of our Nvav to prop up_
the faltering Soviet regime" vet
says the United States and its allies
can nudge the Soviet leaders to
"turn their considerable skills and.
energies t0 rr r- th ir cos--
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PORTLAND PRESS HERALD (ME)
7 September 19814
alotrylcalledCIACIIIIM"
By CLARK T. IRWIN JR the National Intelligence Coun- "I refused to do it, so he finally had the thing re-
Staff Writer ciI_ The council's members rep- written over my dead body, so to speak," at which
resent the CIA, the State point Horton resigned.
American policy in Central Department, the Defense Intelli- That experience, he added, is not typical of the
America is being decided in an gence Agency and the armed estimating process, which he believes is producing
atmosphere where White House forces, more and better readings than during the Carter
ad- "zealotry" and 'very strong ide- As chairman of the team ministration,
ological . clamps" prevent full doing Latin American estimates, The more general concern, he said, is that incom-
discussion of options, a former Horton gave Casey an estimate plete discussion of options for carrying out policy
Central Intelligence Agency offi- on the political, economic, mili- could lead to decisions that will eventually harm the
cer said Thursday in Portland, tary and diplomatic strength and country's intelligence services.
In his first interview since re- capabilities of a major Latin For example, he said, "It's no secret" that Cuba
signing as Latin- American spe- American country important to and Nicaragua are supplying arms, communications
cialist on the National U.S. policy concerns. assistance and espionage data to the leftist rebels in
Intelligence Council in May, El Salvador.
John R. Horton told the Press But the CIA director "wanted -S ce "Interdiction (military attempts to cut sup-
Herald that "Where there's a the estimate to come out a cer- port) 't worked and can't work," and since no
strong political feeling in the ad- tain way" to strengthen the case one is seriously proposing to remove the Sandinista
ministration, there's pressure to for administration policy, regime in Nicaragua, forcibly, Horton argued, it
skew intelligence estimates." Horton said, "and kept constant might be prudent to discuss offering Nicaragua a
Horton was interviewed at the pressure on me to redo it." deal of reduced pressure if they stop supporting the
home of his son, lawyer Mark Salvadoran revolutionaries.
Horton, before a talk for the But Casey's final vote at National Foreign Intelli.
World Affairs Council of Maine. gence Board meetings -- this being a group which
Despite his resignation, reviews the National Intelligence Council's esti-
Horton said he has no policy mates - and "constant crunching back and forth"
fight with the current adminis- between the administration and "pragmatic people"
tration. at the State Department tends to suppress such dis-
"I think our broad policy- in cussion, Horton said.
Central America is completely On. the administration side, he said, there is a
correct," be said, describing that group of `very bright people" including U.N. Am.
policy as supporting a restora- bassador Jean Kirkpatrick, Casey and Undersecre.
tion of democracy and civilian tary of Defense Fred Ikle, "who are either against
government in El Salvador, re- any type of compromise with the -Sandinistas, or if
sisting rebels supported by Nic- not against it, suspicious that State can't handle it,
aragua and Cuba and "opposing "There's a real distrust of the State Department,"
the attempt of the Sandinistas Horton said, "this feeling in the administration that
(the Nicaraguan revolutionary 'State's soft "'
junta) to close their society up Aside from the risk of the country's being given
completely." flawed policy decisions because of unexamined op-
His objection, he ex lained is tions, Horton said, there's the "institutional risk"
to Po pressures or ante i that the CIA will be left holding the bag.
ence o icers to massa a their "At some point," he continued, -Reagan . and
"national ante ligence estimates" Casey are going to be in some other world or retired
tb canforno pcTrfi___goTs and from public life. If any cans get hung around any-
the
erior quality of dis- one's neck for Central America, it won't be Reagan's
the "inferior i quality rorn a or Casey's - it's going to be the CIA's."
squelching _of some points of That could lead to a repeat of the posit-Watergate,
view- post-Vietnam backlash against the agency and again
CIA^Directar William Cased impair the country's ability to supply its decision-
called Horton out of eight years . makers with the best intelligence information and
of retirement last year appraisals to help analysis possible, Horton fears.
prepare intelligence appaisals A registered Democrat, Horton also said, "I want
of Latin American countries for me fair about this thing.:.. It's not just this ad
ministration." STAT
When the Sandinistas seized power in Nicaragua
in 1979, he said, President Carter's National Securi-
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 Oli PAGE 4I ~Y ,,LLLL -4-70-t
Moynihan calls
Managua arms
role unproven
A roved For Release 2jq Qjffl CSIRDP90-011
From wire Sa 1crs
WASHINGTON The Senate
Intelligence Committee never has
been given "conclusive informa-
tion" to back up administration's
;charge that Nicaragua is sending
arms to El Salvador, committee
vice chairman Daniel Patrick
Moynihan (D, N.Y.) said yesterday.
Mr. Moynihan also disclosed
that the committee had reached
written, formal agreement with the
Central Intelligence Agency about
when and how the CIA is to notify
Congress about covert-operations.
He said the agency has asked that
the agreement be kept secret, but
he spoke about its major points.
The existence of an ongoing
cross-border flow of arms has been
the major justification for the ad-
-mini tration's highly controversial
three-year-old "secret war"
against the Nicaraguan govern-
ment.
The issue was raised again this
week when a former CIA analyst,
David MacMichael, said such
claims are based on outdated infor-
mation, and that administration of-
ficials are misleading Congress.
Mr. MacMichael, 56, worked on
intelligence estimates on Central
America for the CIA's National In-
telligence CounclT-under a two-year
contract through March, 1983.
State Department and CIA offi-
cials have rejected Mr. NiacMi-
chael's claims but have not re-
leased evidence that arms flows
are continuing.
Secretary of State George P.
Shultz angrily said, "It is i-nconceiv-
ablethat an informed, honest per-
son" could deny the arms supply
from Nicaragua to the Salvadoran
guerrillas.
"The evidence is everywhere:'
I've looked at a lot of it and I think
it is totally and absolutely convinc-
ing that the direction and the sup=
ply of the guerrillas in El Salvador
comes from Nicaragua:"
CIA Director William' J. ? Casey
said Mr. MacMichael's charges
were "just one man's opinion."
Mr.. Moynihan said his. commit,
tee, which oversees intelligence
operations, "has not been presented
with any conclusive information"
to document the arms flow.
Mr. Moynihan, a consistent sup-
porter of aid to the anti-Sandinista
rebels, predicted that disclosures
challenging the administration's
I think it is totally
and absolutely
convincing that the
direction and the
supply of the guerrillas'_
in El Salvador comes _
from Nicaragua.." -?
GEORGE P.SHULTZ
repeated assertions that Nicaragua
is "exporting revolution" will
prompt Congress to halt aid to the
"contra" guerrillas,
Senate and House leaders have-
been trying to work out a compro-
mise on funding that will at least
give $6 million to $8 million more
to the contras to help them wind
down their operations. But House
leaders have said that recent dis-
closures about the lack of proof
about Nicaraguan involvement in
the Salvadoran civil war mean no
new aid will be voted by the Demo-
cratic-controlled chamber.
The Senate and House intelli-
gence committees monitor the ac-
tivities of the country's intelligence
agencies. Moynihan almost re-
signed his vice chairmanship over
a flap with the CIA last April, when
he accused agency officials of with-
'holding - information about their
role in the mining of Nicaragua's
harbors.
That incident led to a new over-
sight agreement that be said was
signed last Thursday by Mr. Casey,
committee Chairman Barry Gold-
water (R, Ariz) and Mr. Moynihan.
The new secrecy agreement re-
quires that Congress be informed of
"significant anticipated activity"
in spy operations, Mr. Moynihan
said.
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FAR.EASTEPN ECONOMIC REVIEW
21 June 1984
Haw Britain fell for the
Peking game-plan
By Derek'Davles In Hongkong
The most recent of many Western Plenty of material for China to work
at emnts to- ana yse mese ar- on here with the British. ranging from
gaining techniques is a confidential
s u ro uce or the United States
ationa Intel Intelligence Council by te
Ran orp. It is based on t he experi-
ence of senior US officials who
negotiated with the Chinese through-
out the 1970s in an effort to normalise
Sino-US relations. The paper, pri-
vately circulated 1 t year, was written
by is ar olomon, a China s ecia -
ist-ttnvu yT~in ne `oia lolls -with Pe-
kin between 1971 and 19-b
mem er o e atonal ty
Council and who today head's
research ra ramme on international
security pa i_c es.
Among its main points:
^ Chinese officials are single-minded
and disciplined in pursuit of Chinese
interests, but distrustful of imper-
sonal, legalistic negotiations. They al-
ways attempt to cultivate foreign offi-
cials sympathetic to their cause, man-
ipulating personal relationships
(guanxi) and feelings of friendship, ob-
ligation or guilt in an interplay be-
tween superior and dependent.
Approved
Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's
initial legalistic approach - based on
the '.'unequal treaties" -- to the natural
desire of British Embassy officials to
boost Sino-British relations, plus guilt
about the past, in particular the Opium
Wars, which led to the foundation of
Hongkong.
^ The Chinese always seek to establish
their own ground rules by pressing
their foreign counterparts to agree to
certain general "principles," which are
later constantly invoked. Such princi-
ples, however, can be set aside in order
to reach a desired agreement --- which
may in fact clearly contravene the
principles earlier insisted on.
After the agreement with Thatcher
in September 1982 to open the talks, no
progress whatsoever was made until
the British had accepted two "princi-
ples." The first was that sovereignty
over Hongkong would revert to Peking
on 1 July 1997 (a concession made -
conditional to the conclusion of a satis-
factory agreement - in a letter from
Thatcher to Chinese Premier Zhao
Ziyang in spring 1983). The second was
that responsibility for the administra-
tion of Hongkong would also revert
(this, was also conditionally conceded,
in another Thatcher message to Zhao
in the autumn of 1983). The British
have yet to push hard enough to ascer-
th
tions of his wife, Jiang Qing, by telling
Kissinger that China's women were too
numerous and caused "disasters."
Obviously, the terms under which
China recovers part of its territory
from colonial rule is a highly sensitive
issue on which those wishing to com-
promise for China's economic benefit
are vulnerable to dogmatists and
nationalistic elements within the
party. In June 1983, elder statesman
Deng Xiaoping appeared to have reas-
serted himself against elements which
opposed his pragmatic line. However,
little or no progress was reportedly
made at the most recent session - the
15th - of the Sino-British talks, held
shortly after Deng had brusquely con-
tradicted assurances on Hongkong
given by fellow Chinese leaders, in-
cluding a formerdefence minister. This
occurred during a session of the Na-
tional People's Congress at which
Hongkong evidently became a bone of
contention between elements of the
party and the army-
The Chinese prefer to negotiate on
their own territory for being at home
aids internal communications, deci-
sion-making and their orchestration of
the ambience of negotiations - from
banquet toasts to the manipulation of
the press.
The 1997 talks are being held in Pe-
king, where the British bravely claim
that there is no significance in the
changes in the relatively lowly venues
allocated for the meetings. While the
British remain stiffly uncommunica-
tivetothe press (in line with the,'-confi-
dentiality" imposed by Thatcher), the
Chinese give press conferences and
briefings and arrange leaks - all gob-
bled up by the Hongkong media-
P. The Chinese often use a trusted in-
termediary to convey their pre-
negotiating position to a foreign gov-
ernment in a deniable or face-saving
manner in order to "load" the agenda
of their foreign counterpart. Thus they
used the Pakistani Government in
1971 to communicate their stance to
the Nixon administration prior to Kis-
singer's secret visit.
Peking evidently used former Bri-
tain whether these "principles" are
flexible or non-negotiable.
^ Peking's negotiating positions are
highly sensitive to the play of China's
own political factionalism: a strong
leader can promote a policy which a
collective leadership would be unable
to support, or a negotiating position
may be withdrawn or hardened as a re-
sult of factional conflict. The more
rigid and posturing a negotiator, or the
more "irrational" the posture, the
more internal factional pressures are
influencing the negotiations.
In this context, Solomon notes the
Chinese use of symbols (from ping-
pong to pandas) and oblique hints. In
1971, during Henry Kissinger's secret
trip to Peking to arrange former US
.president Richard Nixon's 1972 visit,
the late Chinese premier Zhou Enlai
hinted at conflict with the Chinese
leadership by omitting the name of
then defence minister Lin Biao from an
official list. In 1973, the late chairman
Mao Zedonc indicated to US visitors
 Approved For Release 200690 lb( D 90-01137R0 0100080001-0
ARTICLE. APPEARED
Qw PACE o 6 DEcENIDER 1982
WASHINGTON TALK
Briefifig
Opening at State
designation of Paul D. Wolfo-
witz as Assistant Secretary of
State for East Asian and Pacific
Affairs has touched off a lively compe-
tition for his old post, director of the
-department's policy planning staff.
Henry S. Rowen, a ranking official of
the Central Intelligence Agency, is
one of the leading candidates, Admin-
istration officials report.
The C.I.A. man, a former president
of the Rand Corporation, is backed by
conservative foreign policy special-
ists in the Administration, but some
influential,State, Department leaders
say that -the-post should go to a For-
eign Service officer. Their candidate
is understood to he Stephen W. Bos-
worth,, Depary Assistant Secretary of
State for Inter-American Affairs and
a former Ambassador to Tunisia.
Mr. Rower was president of Rand,
the national security planning group,
from 1966 . to 1971, resigning in part
over Government dissatisfaction with
Rand security arrangements mvoly-
ing thepentagon papers. For the past
18 months, he has headed the National
intelligence Council at the C.IA, a
new unit organized to improve the
speed and reliability of national intel-
ligenceestimates.
Phil
valley
Warren Weaver Jr.
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ARTICLE APPEARED
ON PAGE I
SHULTZ DISCUSSES.
POLICY ON SOVIET
WITH KEY EXPERTS
LONG-TERM PLANS STUDIED
Secretary Said to Stress Need
to Review Political, Arms
and Economic Issues
By BERNARD GWERTZMAN
Sj*c 1 to The xew Ymknmes
WASHINGTON, Aug. 21 - Secretary
of State George P. Shultz held an all-
day meeting today with experts on
Soviet affairs and senior Reagan Ad=
ministration officials to discuss United
States policy toward the Soviet Union.
With the crisis in west Beirut appar-
ently ending, Mr. Shultz has decided it
is time to pay more attention to interna-
tional issues other than the Middle
East, his aides said, and has given pri-
ority to a review of long-term political,
economic and military policy toward
the Russians. - .
- Mr. Shultz, who has noparticular ex-
.pettise m- Soviet affairs, patterned
today's session after an all-day meeting
he had with former Secretary of State
Henry A. Kissinger and others on Mid-
dle East policy on July 17, the day after
he was sworn in as Secretary.
Brezhnev's Ill Health Cited
According to State Department offi-
cials there is a need for a fresh look at
policy toward the Soviet Union, given
major developments already apparent.
They said that in view of the precarious
state of Leonid I. Brezhnev's health
there is always a chance of a shift in the
Soviet leadership, which would necessi-
tate a careful handling of relations dur-
ingthe initial post-Brezhnev period.
In the economic field, the Adminis-
tration has become involved in a seri-
ous dispute with its Western European
allies over sanctions against the Soviet
Union as a result of the imposition of
Approved
THE NEW YORK TIMES
22 August 1982
martial law in Poland. The Europeans
have refused to'go along with President
Reagan's efforts to prevent organiza-
tions with licenses from American com-
panies from producing components for
a natural gas pipeline from Siberia to
Western Europe. The Administration is
considering what steps to take against
companies that defy tha American
sanction.
Moreover, the Administration, in
deference .to pressure from the farm
belt, has allowed sales of grain to the
Soviet Union to continue, at the same
time that it is trying to curb the transfer.
.of technology. This has prompted addi-
tional criticism from Europeans who
have charged Washington with trying to
limit their trade with Moscow ? while
continuing its own agricultural trade-
"Relations between the Reagan Ad-
ministration and the Soviet Union have
been strained, but the two Governments
have begun separate negotiations on
limiting medium-range nuclear mis-
siles in Europe and on seeking reduce i
tions in each side's strategic nuclear
weapons. No progress has been re-
ported from either set of negotiations. .
Haig Stressed Contacts
Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig
Jr. had stressed the importance of
maintaining contact with the Russians,'
and at one point even seemed to advo-
cate an early meeting between Mr.
Reagan and Mr. Breznnev, an idea that
seems to have been put aside by the
White House.
Mr. Haig held three rounds of meet-
ings with Foreign Minister Andrei A.
Gromyko of the Soviet Union, the last
on June 18 and 19, in New York, just a
week before Mr. Haig resigned. Mr-
Shultz is planning to attend the regular
United Nations General Assembly ses-
'sign in New York next month and would
normally meet with Mr. Gromyko
there, but no firm plans have been set.
Several of the outside experts who
took part in today's session with Mr.
Shultz, served as senior officials in =
previous administrations and Mr.
Shultz knows some of them from his
days as Treasury Secretary for Presi-
dent Nixon from 1972-to 1974.
Former Kissinger Aides Present
They included William G. Hyland and
Helmut Sonnenfeldt, who were Mr. Kis-
singer's chief Soviet affairs advisers,
and Brent Scowcroft, who served as Mr.
Kissinger's deputy on the National Se-
curity Council and later became na-
tional security adviser to President
Ford.
Also participating were Donald
Rumsfeld, who was Mr. Ford's Defense
Secretary, and Harold Brown, who was .
President Carter's Defense Secretary,
as well as the present Defense Secre.
tart', Caspar W. Weinberger.
Mr. Shultz's willingness to consult
with Mr. Kissinger has aroused consid-
erable attention, since many of Mr.
Reagan's supporters have been critical j
of Mr. Kissinger's policies. At his news.
conference on Friday Mr. Shultz was
asked about the. increased attention
being given to Mr. Kissinger and his
former aides, and whether it was true
that Mr. Kissinger was now becoming
"the primary foreign policy adviser of
this Administration."
. Praise for Ea-Secretary
In response Mr. Shultz said that he
himself was the principal foreign policy
adviser. But he then went out of his way
to praise Mr. Kissinger.
"Dr. Kissinger is a wonderful person
and a great friend, a person who has
tremendous knowledge and comprehen-
sion of what is going on," he said. "I .
have enjoyed the benefit of his friend-
ship and his ideas over many years, and
I expect to continue to have that."
"I'll continue to benefit from his ad.
vice," he said. "But it's my job to be the
principal foreign policy adviser to the
President."
Peter G. Peterson, who as Mr. Nix-
on's Commerce Secretary, negotiated .
the trade package with the Soviet Union
that was signed in 1972, also attended
the meeting. That trade package
marked the high point of what became
known as detente but was renounced by
the Russians in 1974 when Congress
linked credits and tariff reductions to
the rate of'Jewish emigration from the
.Soviet Union.
W. Allen Wallis, who has been desig-
nated as the Under Secretary of State
for Economic Affairs, was another who
took part in today's session, along with
Walter J. Stoessel Jr., the outgoing
Deputy Secretary.
Norman Podhoretz, the editor of
Commentary magazine, and a leading
neo-conservative critic of the Reagan
Administration's foreign policy for not
being consistently firm enough against
the Russians, was another participant.
Others from the Administration who
took part included: Henry Owen,
Hof the National Intelligence oun-
cil of the Central me t ence en
,
which deals with
ucm estimates
onother countries; Robert C. McFar-
lane, deputy director of the National Se-
curity Council staff; James Buckley,
counselor-designate of the State De-
partment; Richard Burt.. Assistant Sec-
retary of State-designate for European
affairs; Jonathan Howe, director of
political-military affairs at the depart-
ment, and Paul D. Wolfowitz, director
se 7nnc/n4'/n'2 . rin ononn n., 4,27onnnQAASA ent's Policy Planning I
F
R
l
or
e
ea
 Approved For Release 2006101103 -CIA-RRP90-01137
4 OCTOBER 1981
The Re.-aga-h Cor0`11ary
By William Safire
WASHINGTON -= In the acronym
ridden lingo of the national security
types, a Special National Intelligence
Estimate - SNIE - is pronounced
"steel"
When a high Government official or'.
intelligence officer believes that dan-
gerous trends are showing up in a for-
eiga country, he demands an analysis
from Henry Rower's shop at the C.IA.
This column draws on that 12-page.
"snee" on north Yemen, - "parallel
documents" and inter views. = =-,_ ----
Six weeks ago, it became apparent
that new trouble was taking place in
north Yemen, the official name of
which is Yemen, but is referred to here
as "north Yemen" to differentiate it
from Southern Yemen, its Communist
neighbor mainly to the?vvest. (That's
right, to the west; they call it"South-
ern"toconfuseus.)
:Trouble -In--north -Yemen -sets _off
alarms at C.IAi because that imnov-:
Accordingly,- a "National Demo- Gulf. To answer what he- sees as an ex-
_cratic, Front" was set. up,.in ,north::, pensive-hardware threat; Mr. Reagan;
,Yemen a.nd-supplied with._arms.:The offers our expensive-hardware an
'-Saudi princes could notdecldewhether.- -;: swer,^ :=A`.
to supportthe GoveminentofAh Saleh= ,.';.But the.threat-than=1yi developing
'
.in north Yemen strongly=: they wor y_from mi}lionsof htmgz3rrarigryr'Yeme..
cried ithe became too strong;he might:.. , nis, nowworking irrtheSaudroUfields.
merge-with at
go for the oil-up, north. So the~udls:_ _ _home
helped a little, Ali Saleh, the Sihanouk - ? -.. ?
of the Middle East, got aid froth,the , r;Russian militarystrategistsrnustbe
' Russians as well, but is-now turning ;-sm~limg at the debate raging here over,
.
again to us:" ' the Awacs~ he-troops, that may.ulti-
mately moveoi lHe.$audis viiil be'on-
This `.,.
summer, after a visit to Adenv tr~icks.'horses"and even tarriels;' Frll
Southern Yemen's capital, by Soviet'=r..
movtng at farIess:thau 96 miles per
generals, downtown Yemen signed a hour: And the million-man force'that
treaty with Cuban-run Ethiopia and will form the fifth column is already in !!!
Libya. Cal. Qad'afff appeared in South:
place inside the Saudi k gdom.
ern. Yemen, and a Soviet-naval task
force called; now the combined Com-- Lets come downtoearth. ittJ,5Reea
monists, are building, military facW_ gan.Corollary is tobe-carried-out, *e i
ties on nearby Perim=Island., blocking will have to' come to grips with the at-
the'RedSea.-; tempted Communist:: subversion of
At the same time, t north Yemen, or later to organize Jar-
he Communist-
sponsored v National---- Democratic danian and. Egyptian foot soldiers to
In the repel a-seizuze of the oilflelds.
Front got busy in north Yemeri
.
erished:nation of five- or six million City of?Ibb, a Government-force?was;
Arabs ison-theborderof Saudi Arabia. athbushed?,vi Saleh,'Pretending nol
Under the Reagan Corollary to the - challengewasunderway, ran "train
Carter Doctrine; the U.S. has guaran-- ing flights" of his American and Rio.
teed both the territorial lntty, and-., - s
sjets to bombard strafe the insur-d
internal stability of Saudi Arabia- Th
most direct threats come from pot in ?` d his De werets .of. U.S. aid office
d to get ready to
tial subversion by the million Yemeni crals n Ibb.were tol
who now work In the world's oil center, ? wathdraw.
? That
and from the strong Communist army; at is when-the ' snee was or-,
. dared, Our intelligence reported that
nowin Sourhern.Yemen.. . the N.D.F. had significantly improved
Three years ago, the Soviet cilnntsin its position; that it was gaining consid-
Southern-Yemen attacked the' 5audi'I '-,erable!rpoliticaf- support^ among did
client in north Yemen, which beat off ! Yemenis; that there. was reason for
the attack -until the -Arab_ league - { concern about All Saleh moving closer
called arhalt. The Communists-learned' to the Russians; and that "a lack of in-. -
alessanethesmarteetwaytotak cee- terna1 cohesion-.ensures regirlag-up-
-trol -of uptown Yeme -was-not: by_tu-1,; _ heavals _>' n-,
rect attack; but by wooing dissident That means-that a half-.l illiorrdol-
tribes andspnr:soring civil war.., lars worth of U.S. planes, tanks and
= others military.?.baxdware; sh Ipped tv
Yemen by P residen$ Carter. using' ' -
an emergency arms.controI loophole
-is iu jeopoardy,,, of takeover by local
Comm..,or by Sautpern.Yeriien's
`= = Moir Limportant;- _ the-' growing
~r strength- of-?t the' Coiamunist force' In,
north Yemen poses+a;direct threat to
i< the Saudis:'ihatwasoneof the reasons I.
.prepared an
answet~to a-news conference question
-r that watt soon to establish the Reagan
Corollary nobody isgoing to grab the
_oil fr0m theRoyal Family;`+`, `::; `'mot
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ARTICLE APPE.'y' ED
ON PAGE
By Robert Morton
NEWS'.VO'LOS7AFr
The controversy surrounding
CIA Director William Casey inten-
sified yesterday when anotherof his
high-level. appointees became the
object of critical questioning.
On-July 7, the administration
announced that Henry S. Rowen had
been chosen to head the National
.Intelligence Council -a group
responsible for preparing national
intelligence estimates for the CIA.
Rowen resigned under pressure as
president of the Rand Corp- in 1971,
reportedly because he collaborated
with Daniel Ellsberg in the release
of the "Pentagon Papers."
. Casey yesterday refused to com-
ment about the selection of Rowen
and a. spokeswoman told The.News
World that Casey was "unwilling to
make any statements about why he
appointed him to that position."
Admiral Bobby R. Inman, CIA
deputy director, also declined com-
ment.
`Lax about security' -_
"I think that the biggest worry is
that here is a man who is pretty tax
.about security.- sufficiently. lax
that he lost his job at Rand;'-said
retired Lt. Gen, Daniel O_ Graham,
former -director of- the Defense
Intelligence Agency.,
.,As the boss out thereat Rand, he
was ultimately responsible for the
safeguarding of classified papers;'
Graham said in a telephone inter-
view from his office at the
American Security Council in
Washington-
"I do recall that he testified essen-
tiaDy forEllsberg at the trial. That's
a very strangebackgound fora guy
THE NEWS ? I ORLD (liY
23 JULY 1981
11h t:% LUCIL 4JS13LQ11L ACI;.l'~LQi'y V1
defense for international security
affairs, and two of his top assistants,
Leslie Gelb and Morton Halperin..
Halperin is now director of the
Center for National Security Stud-
ies which was foundedin 1974by the
radical left-wing- think 'tank, `the.
Institute for Policy Studies.
The CNSS publishes the Covert -'~
Action Information Bulletin which
exposes the activities ofAmerican intelligence agencies and special-
izes in identifying agents by name-
William J. Casey ~ Warnke headed the Arms Con-
- . trol and Disarmament Agency
to get the job that he's getting' ? ? under the Carter administration.
Last week Max Hugel, Casey's - Both he and Gelb, now a New York -
deputy in charge of CIA's covert Times reporter, are known as advo-
operation section, resigned as a cafes of a weakened U.S. strategic
result of what he called-unfounded. and military posture.
unproven, and untrue" allegations "For along time, Rand was turn-
in a Washington Post article that he ing out papers on strategy and mili- ..
had engaged in "improper" stock to matters in supPort of olicies-
1
r
market practices in the 1970s.
Intelligence sources said Hugel'
was the victim of either a personal
vendetta from his two former bust-
ness associates (one of whom
Samuel McNeil -- isreported miss-.
ing).or of "an inside hatchet job at
the company" -
,
Although President Reagan has . Rowen,whohadworked wittiEll-
defended Casey, some intelligence
sberg in Rand's economic, division
specialists are more alarmed by the, as early as 19
59 . criticized his
CIA director's appointment of
Rowen than by the apparent short-
comings of the background investi- ?
gation that preceded Hugel's
appointment.
A White. House spokesman
declined comment on Rowen's
selection, saying only that Casey
I'-vas responsible for the
appointment and that "there is no
change in this administration's sup-
port of Casey."
Y -
?
that are from our point of view fail--
ures," Gen. Graham said.
"Unless hlr. Bowen has changed
his mind, and according to some of. i,
his statements about the unduly
optimistic estimates by the CIA, he
mat-have changed his stripes; that
worries mea little bit
"headded
,
friend's disclosure of the Pentagon
Papers.. Nevertheless his resigna-
tion from Rand-in 1971 apparently
resulted from a breakdown in trust
between Rowen. and-the Depart-
ment of Defense.
Pentagon officials reportedly
feared that he was attracting people
to his staff who were antirnilitary. -
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Daniel Ellsberg, resigned his posi- .
 Approved For Release 2006/01/03 : CIA-RDP90-01137R00010QJ86661 -6
ARTICLE APRFLqZ~
O> PAGE
THE WASHINGTON POST
9 July 1981
A GUMMSE"S GUMSHOE .... Henry S. Rowen, former pres-
ident of the. Rthid Corp, research center? who quit in the. wake of the
Pentagon Papecontroversy,. has been named chairman of a new Na-?-
tional Intelligerce, ,Co thd1 at the CIA:.--She CIA didn't elaborate on his
duties,,but, repert y,-. be= will'coordinata: CIA agents! .reports,an and help,
prepare nations intelligence analyses for, the White House. =
Rowen; depot defense secretary --for- national- security, affairs under.-
-Robert S.MF iamaiea in the early,1960s, left Rand in 1971, after
Daniel' Ellsberg; . another:. Rand official, .leaked the documents that
became known 4s4 a Pentagon Papers.:-He has taught public manage
went at Stan fort}lrUniversity and kept. his hand in defense matters, re
Gently serving orjzatt IN?X-review pane ,,-_ - _- ?
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 Approved For Release 2006/01/03 : CIA-RDP90-01137R000
NNtjo i and I ter at on iJ e s? in
Internationai
THE -CLADE ti Pi;TE _I icitUIRt P
9 July 1981
,. ".- A US. group is ordered tp close
office in Panama,-_ti ;
:_-- Sixteen Auiericansr who , Word` far;"i
'. the Sinmmmer, Institute of Iangulstics
?were'ordered yesterday`to leave the =$I
t country for"possessing. un egistered }'
eommunica~ions equipment; and te`.
=organization-was told to close?its o
fice on the qutsl$irt ,af.l?enz~uia City; F
_~'Po]ice said they. found' radio trans-.
Gritting equipment,'-!a?.-.Teletype ma;
aching and a telephone.switchboard,..,.
all "unregistered??The ' institute,,:`-.
Which translat the Bib]e into tribal-.
=dialects, gainedd.iztternational atteri-t?
"non in, March when one of.it$ teach
ers ChesterBittermalt of iaticaster,=.
=.P ,toes kidnapped and killed by.left-
ist'guerriltas: in' Colombia;- The ab-
ductors acoused :the`instUuIY of .be ;
~~', ng a fist n i i S entral lxitfelli>ii
Bence Aezicy., ?.s -? -,:; ~~ - t
The CIA, creates a'council to assess'
foreign developments: -.. s
with Henry ^S' -.Rowers?~ a former
-president of Rand Corp at'its helm,
the- National Intelligence ? Council'
was created by CIA director `Villiant
Casey to-pull together a dozen offi-:
vials specializing in particular Bea :
graphic..ateas. to draft government'-(:.
wide assessments of foreign-
develop-ments- Casey's: predecessor,-;:5tans,
field Turner,'put- the officials into
the same structure as the CIA's Intel
ligence. analysts: Turners move was
criticized by conservatives, wha said
it resulted in less attention paid to.
views which dissented from CIA post
tions. The' new .council will :report..
directly td Casey. ;
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ARTICLE APPEAF-ED
ON PAGir _3_____?
LOS ANGELES TIMES
9 July 1981
O.
~J_4
;fUPIPHemy"S: e&. ormer,
president of the Rand Cory *ho; resigned- during the
Pentagon Papers contrvvery Jcas _been, appointed
ch
'
airman o# the CiA
s new Natianal:ThtelLgence Cou _
Virzi the agency-said:Wedriesda -' r ` : ' 1
_l ow~ert' ii[-report directly~ta_CIA dire tnr rz7dliari -J
4kF
. Casey- and deputy-d1 ectorBobbyRay iniatr?
~,?.: The aganc~jr gav no detail:i6t_-Raweizscda es, but
;was'tmderstood thathe-will'cdoidmate 3t workVE.
of c l? uja? ly the, preparatiari of c tica1natiorlal
~zanteltFgance=e rimates_far-Ole Wi #t
,l';Bowencwan president af:Kand ['oYrp;;a'detetse a--:
search,,center at.Sant Monica, _Ealif' frvtir 195Z:to'197
when be resigiiea during ' the~ccntroversyayer:pubhca<
gtionofthk"WetnarWar's-Peiifagaapapez
The secret'documents,=copies of whicl uteraiii*
Rand filee:.were given to
.theiimfia:b Daniel Ellslaerp
'then an of al at Rand. Botlx Rowex;=arid Rand clizEC~
Mors denied.aiiy-r_ :on5Roweir' -part Qr..
}releaser:f,`r r-rYSYI_:y:
. i ~: ?=mot: k., .~~ ~' V:',. a_ y'`",i
xu Frarr~;1972~imtii .recerttIy:`RowerrYtatlgat. graduate'
: co s in=public management at.:Stariford ~3ni e sity ;
During that peiiod; be also was a me~ri of the Penta=,
gair"s L ferise Science Board He-ieeei tigse vei3arn
reviewpa~el.oixthe~niah_ilemssil~==f"'`fir'
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ARTICLE APPEf
Oil PAGE 8 BUY 1981
andPres, ent
'To n1l"TeV, d New CLA. Panell,
By JUDITH MILLER --
speaal m;nex-.ray cttmea
WASHINGTON, July 7-The Reagan
Administration has selected Henry S.
Rowen to head a newly created National
Intelligence Council at the Central Intel-
ligence Agency, Administration offi-
cials said today.
Mr. Rowen, a former. president of the
Rand Corporation who resigned in 1971,
partly because of Pentagon dissatisfac-
tion with Rands security arrangements
for the Pentagon papers, has until re-
cently been a professor at Stanford Uni-
versity's Graduate School of Business.
He has already begun working at the
C.I.A., but his appointment has not been
announced.
According to Administration officials,
William J. Casey, the Director of Cen-
tral Intelligence, chose W. Rowers for
the post and decided to create the coun-
cil to upgrade the system under which
national intelligence estimates are
produced.
Preparation of national intelligence
estimate, which are supposed to be
comprehensive studies of an issue or
subject that reflect the views of the en-
tire intelligence apparatus, has been a
source of bitterness with intelligence of-
ficials for nearly eight years. Mr. Casey
recently told C.I.A officials in an
agency newsletter that the system had
become "slow, cumbersome and incon-
sistent with providing the policy maker
with a timely, crisp forecast that incor-
porates clearly defined ? alternative
views."
Critics of the process have also
charged that the estimates have pre-
dominantly reflected C.I.A?: views, with
important dissents from other intelli-
gence agencies relegated to footnotes.
cr-f;ol.i Tni-nor T]ir,Ctnr of Central
Intelligence.in the Carter Admuustra-
tion, was accused by some intelligence
officials of distorting estimates to make
them dovetail with the Carter Adminis-
tration's foreign policy, an allegation
that Mr. Turner denied, although he ac-
knowledged that he had personally re-
written estimate papers. Mr. Rowen hilmself has been a vocal
critic of the, intelligence estimates sys-
tem, especially of what he has charac-
terized as the C.I.A_'s optimistic assess-
ments of Soviet military strength in the
past. - Mr. Rowen, an Oxford-trained
economist, served as Deputy Assistant
Secretary of Defense under Robert S.
McNamara. from 1961, to 1965, and be-
came president of Rand in 1966.
Separate Views Encouraged
Under the new system, the council
will be composed of those national intel-
ligence officers charged with producing
the estimates. They will report directly
to Mr. Casey and to Bobby R. Inman,
the C.I_A.'s Deputy Director....
Senate critics of the agency, such as
Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Democrat of
New York, and Malcolm Wallop, Repub-
lican of Wyoming, have urged Mr.
Casey to, encourage the intelligence
agencies to offer separate views and
estimates. Several officials who follow
intelligence matters, closely said that
they doubted that the new council would
lead to such a debate about the esti-
mates.
"I fear that this means business as
usual," one Administration official ob-
served.....-
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 liICEFor Release ,1 sCJ*FRR9P-j0L1rr00
ON PAGE ~777_ 8 J1JLY 1931
Ex-Rand Coro. Chief
To Heald- CIA Paned.
The Reagan administration has se-
lected Henry S. Rowen to head a new-,
ly created National Intelligence-
Council at the Central Intelligence'
Agency, - administration officials.
said yesterday:..
Rowen, a former president of the
Rand Corp. ' who' resigned in 1971,
partly because: of. Pentagon, dissatis-
faction with- Rand's security-'ar-
rangements%for the Pentagon pa-
pers,-, has until 'recently - been a
professor. at Stanford: University's.
Graduate-School of Business..He has.
already- begun, working, of the CIA,
but his appointment has?not been an-
nounced. -
According to administration offi-
cials-William J.-Casey, the.director
of central intelligence; cho
se Rowen
for the post and decid
reate the
council.to u i
s '
em
under-
which ' inte}Ii
pates-Are produced.
nce esti;
Aew,Yor$ T tvfee ?.:.~ ..:: ~' ';
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 NEW YORK TIMES
7 July 1981
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Z -7
;7 7
rw~
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ARTICLE APPEARED
ON PAGE
By George Lardner Jr:;
The C?A has decided to go under
ground again. - :"
It is- no longer riec ssary,'CIA I i=
rector William. J. Casey annouiicecl~
in a `newsletter circulated in -Jlia 1
agency .,fist week, fo: spend much
time j .stifying the agency's ?activities~
or defending the-quality- of ats, workrj
In his view, "the difficulties_ofthe
past decade are behind us.! !4 -:As a result, contacts with the press
?and public, which have already been:
. -tut- back; w~I be reduced still fur=
thsr, .The CIA's office o;Pub lic af-
r. faun will be-closed and its wo{{rk as-.,
__
o
that
r,1dw:
. i. 1 . _ _ n _
w
Li
n
w
: ;,
take over le illative liaison
Both assignments have high=
level status since _ liselosures;of; CIA
domestic, spying-and other misdeeds
prompted ?