NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029300010012-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 11, 2006
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: September 8, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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CIA-RDP79T00975A02930 f0-10G Jret 233
(Security Classification)
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
L
Wednesday September 8, 1976 CI NIDC 76-211C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Top Secret
State Aep~rove rWMW4 D07/03/07: CIA-RDP79T00975A029SW#r J ication
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 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29300010012-3
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Intelligence Daily Cable for Wednesday September 8, 1976
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a e is purpose i
senior o icials.
LEBANON: Situation Report
OPEC: End of Economic Boom
ANGOLA-PORTUGAL: Relations
MEXICO: Prisoner Exchange Proposal
ROMANIA-YUGOSLAVIA: Ceausescu Visit
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LEBANON: Situation Report
I A high-level delegation of Lebanese Christian Phalan-
gists e by Pierre Jumayyil met with Syrian President Asad on
Monday, and extremist Christian leader Camille Shamun is sched-
uled to be in Damascus for consultations today, as the Syrians
continue their preparations to ensure a smooth transfer of power
to Lebanese president-elect Sarkis.
The leftists' radio in Beirut said yesterday that
Asad and Jumayyil had discussed the possibility of Syrian mili-
tary action before Sarkis' inauguration. The problems of re-
building the Lebanese army and choosing a new prime minister,
and cabinet after Sarkis takes over were reportedly also dis-
cussed. The leftists' radio contended that the Syrians are
urging that the swearing-in ceremony for Sarkis be held at Sha-
turah, a Lebanese town well within Syrian-controlled territory.
//When Shamun talks to Asad today, he is ex-
pecte to press his standard
demand a e a es inians e -coraiiy disarmed before any fur-
ther negotiations are held. Shamun remains skeptical about the
prospects for peace and would clearly prefer to resume the
Christians' offensive operations.//
I I Palestine Liberation organization leader Yasir Arafat
an e anese leftist leader Kamal Jumblatt met with other Pales-
tinians and leftists in Beirut on Monday to discuss a "new Syr-
ian peace plan" brought back by Arafat's envoys from Damascus
over the weekend. The group rejected the Syrian plan for a tri-
partite meeting of Syria, the Palestinians, and "legitimate Leb-
anese authorities" as an old proposal.
The Lebanese leftist radio reported that Arafat and
Ju att also discussed the "ramifications" of the Arab League's
decision to postpone its summit conference on Lebanon until late
October. The two leaders are undoubtedly unhappy with the post-
ponement.
The Christians continue their heavy shelling of Pales-
tinian- eld villages in the Mount Lebanon area and, after a
period of relative calm, shelling has increased in Beirut. Fight-
ing elsewhere remains at a generally low level.
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The period of explosive import growth has ended for
most OPEC countries. OPEC merchandise imports totaled $15.9
billion in the second quarter of 1976--up only moderately from
the $14.5 billion in the previous quarter.
I The $1.4-billion overall growth in the second quar-
ter mas s quite divergent trends within OPEC. Saudi Arabia
alone accounted for more than half of the growth of OPEC im-
ports. Saudi purchases rose from $2 billion the first quarter
to $2.8 billion in the second. Import growth was sluggish in
most other OPEC countries and actually declined in Iraq.
With the exception of the Arabian peninsula pro-
ducers--Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and
Qatar--the value of imports in each OPEC country in the first
two quarters was below past quarterly peak levels. Import
volume was also down in six of the OPEC producers--Algeria,
Iran, Iraq, Libya, Venezuela, and Nigeria.
Import volume reached new quarterly highs in Indonesia
and Ecuador, but spending was down marginally because import
prices still had not regained former levels.
Prices paid by OPEC countries for imports peaked in
the first quarter of 1975 and declined at a 9-percent annual
rate before turning around in the fourth quarter. Since then
they have been rising at a 5-percent annual rate.
Oil prices increased less than
import prices from
the beginning of 1974 until October 1975,
but
last autumn's
10-percent price hike in oil
made
up most
of
the difference.
From
the beginning of 1974 to
June
1976,
OPEC
import prices
rose
OPEC
18.5 percent, while the
crude rose 15.5 percent.
price
of an average barrel of
The OPEC countries have a very different impression
of price trends of the foreign goods they purchase. Any price
data they have would reflect the heavy transportation and in-
surance charges that result from long waiting times at their
clogged ports, but few OPEC countries have even these figures.
They probably rely on general impressions gained from the
final cost of imported goods.
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These final prices have risen explosively since
early 1974 because of wastage--running as high as 50 percent
for some goods at ports in Africa and the Middle East--and the
large markups added by wholesalers and retailers.
Portuguese Prime Minister Soares has told US Ambassa-
dor Car ucci that Angolan leaders indicated a "strong desire"
to re-establish diplomatic relations with Portugal in talks
last week with a visiting Portuguese Socialist Party delegation.
I IRelations between the two countries were broken off
as' pri amid charges by Angola that Portugal was supporting
opponents of the Popular Movement.
The Angolans, according to Soares, indicated they
e t they had been pushed into too close a relationship with
the USSR and now wanted to develop a more independent position.
Scares said the Angolans even spoke of a possible
'privi eged relationship" for Portugal. They apparently are in
need of technical assistance and are anticipating the return of
Portuguese technicians. The Angolans also made the point that
Portugal could help them establish links with Europe and con-
tacts that would facilitate Angola's admission to the UN.
I There are nevertheless still a number of issues stand-
ing in e way of improved relations between Angola and Portu-
gal. The Angolan government is detaining a number of Portuguese
citizens on charges of political and economic sabotage and has
confiscated numerous Portuguese properties in Angola.
The exchange of views last week was on a party-to-
party basis rather than between officials of both governments.
Nevertheless, both sides publicly proposed re-establishing dip-
lomatic relations following the talks, and government-level ex-
changes can be expected in the near future.
The Angolans' eagerness to restore relations with
ortuga appears motivated by a growing sense of isolation from
the West. They probably regard ties with Portugal as the best
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means to end that isolation and hope that European support
will balance Angola's close ties with Moscow and Havana and
overcome US objections to admission to the UN.
The minority Socialist government in Lisbon has prom-
ise to cultivate close ties with all Portuguese-speaking na-
tions, and the restoration of relations with Angola will give
it a needed foreign policy success. The Portuguese also proba-
bly hope to alleviate the economic strain caused by the influx
of more than 600,000 refugees from the territories by sending
some of them back to Angola.
MEXICO: Prisoner Exchange Proposal
I Mexican President Echeverria's proposed legislation
to allow foreigners to serve jail terms in their own countries
is designed in part to put pressure on the US to speed nego-
tiations for a prisoner exchange.
//The Mexicans first proposed such an exchange to
o icia s some months ago, and it has been rumored among US
prisoners in Mexico for some time. The development of the leg-
islation was doubtless hastened by a hunger strike by US pris-
oners that began yesterday.//
//Slightly over 600 US citizens are in Mexican
jails, most of them charged with drug use or trafficking. The
prisoners called the hunger strike to protest what they felt
was a reluctance on the part of both countries to negotiate an
exchange agreement and to protest prison conditions and mis-
treatment by Mexican prison authorities and police.//
//The proposed legislation, which was sent to the
Mexican congress on Monday, would give the President the power
to sign treaties with other nations to allow a transfer of
sanctions under which prisoner exchanges could be carried out.
Although the legislation is certain to be passed by the con-
gress, the Mexicans are no doubt aware that major changes in
US law would be required before the Mexican initiative could
be accepted.//
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Romanian President Ceausescu arrives in Belgrade to-
day, both sides having apparently set aside the problems that
reportedly forced several postponements of the four-day visit.
Arrangements--including the resolution of protocol
difficulties--were probably made in Belgrade in late August,
when Romanian party secretary Stefan Andrei met with Stane
Dolanc, the number-two man in the Yugoslav party.
Ceausescu and Tito will probably coordinate their
strategies on:
--Implementing the Helsinki agreements and preparing for
the Belgrade follow-on conference in 1977.
--Developments in the European communist movement, and
especially the role of the independent parties.
--Balkan cooperation, and the latest Greek initiative on
this issue.
--Romania's future within the nonaligned movement.
I The two leaders will probably also discuss Romania's
current tempts to play up to the Soviets, and Ceausescu will
seek to reassure Tito that Bucharest has not fundamentally
altered its independent stance.
Despite their differences, both sides have presumably
conducted that it is in their best interest to act jointly to
forestall Soviet meddling. The Yugoslav press was accordingly
depicting a united front on the eve of the visit.
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On Monday, an authoritative commentator noted that
"there is not a single unresolved problem" that could hamper
the talks, and major newspapers proclaimed that Yugoslavia and
Romania share "identical or similar views" on all interna-
tional issues.
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GREECE-TURKEY: Sismik
arently decided once again not to inter-
has a
pp
I (Greece
fere with the research activities of the Turkish ship Sismik I
in contested waters of the Aegean.
Athens protested the Turkish move in a demarche to the
,
US but did not request any new action by Washington.
In a speech in Thessaloniki, Prime Minister Caramanlis
hinted at despite the sensitivity of the present area of re-
search of the Turkish ship, Greece would be ready to resume a
dialogue with Ankara when the ship completed its mission. His
conciliatory approach has been criticized in some quarters, and
Caramanlis sought to assure his audience that he would defend
the country's interests and honor should the occasion arise.
I Radical leftist leader Andreas Papandreou is the only
major Greek politician to take public exception to Caramanlis'
handling of the latest Turkish move in the Aegean.
The Turkish government has evidently prevailed on the
domestic press to play down news of Sismik's activities. The
Demirel government apparently believes its approach so far has
rendered ineffective opposition charges that it lacks resolve,
and it also seemed confident even before Caramanlis' speech
that the Greek leader would back off from a confrontation.
Prime Minister Demirel may still try to exploit the
Sismik's activities to improve his position vis-a-vis his po-
litical opponents and to try to coerce Caramanlis into agreeing
to bilateral negotiations.
The Sismik is expected to complete its current opera-
tions on September 25.
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