EAST ASIA BIWEEKLY REVIEW

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00912A002200010022-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 21, 2005
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: June 13, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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oreign
Assessment
Center
East Asia
Biweekly Review
Secret
RP E; IbR 78-012
13 June 1978
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13 June 1978
CONTENTS
Japan - Southeast Asia: Few Gifts to Offer . . . . . 1
Minister of International Trade and
Industry Komoto's trip through Southeast
Asia produced little in the way of new
Japanese aid and investment commitments
for Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia.
Korea: Crop Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Severe drought conditions have ad-
versely affected the South Korean
winter barley crop and threaten
summer rice.
North Korea: Chronology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
This publication is prepared for regional specialists in the Washington community by
the East Asia/Pacific Division, Office of Regional and Political Analysis, with
occasional contributions from other offices within the National Foreign Assessment
Center. Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to the authors
of the individual articles.
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Japan Southeast Asia: Few Gifts to Offer
Minister of International Trade and Industry
Komoto's trip through Southeast Asia last month pro-
duced little in the way of new Japanese aid and i vest-
ment commitments for Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia.
Komoto's visit underscored, however, Tokyo's continued
high-level interest in the Association for Southeast:.
Asian Nations (ASEAN) since Prime Minister Fukuda's
swing through the region last year--an objective that
is also the focus of Foreign Minister Sonoda's talks
with his Southeast Asian counterparts at ASEAN's an-
nual ministerial meeting this week.
Indonesia
In Jakarta, Komoto pledged to maintain Japan's
level of oil imports from Indonesia, indicated that
governmental and private assistance for doubling the
capacity of the East Kalimantan liquefied natural gas
(LNG) plant would be forthcoming, and reiterated Japan's
commitment to see the Asahan aluminum project through
to completion. In general, however, Komoto's remarks
remained well within the bounds of Tokyo's prior com-
mitments. Japanese officials, for instance, noted
that Komoto's statement on Indonesian oil imports did
not constitute a long-term guarantee; they also indi-
cated that official assistance for the Indonesian LNG
project may be forthcoming only after Japanese companies
participating in the production of the LNG plant deter-
mine that the size of reserves are adequate.
Komoto also held the line in his discussions with
President Suharto. At Indonesia's request, the Japanese
agreed to send a private team to undertake an informal
feasibility study for a new truck diesel engine factory.
Otherwise, Komoto gave only generalized assurances that
Tokyo would provide greater access for Indonesian exports
to the Japanese market.
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Singapore
Komoto likewise sidestepped new initiatives in
Singapore. Although he affirmed that the joint Singapore-
Japan petrochemical complex will be completed "on schedule"
at the end of 1981, Komoto hedged on the actual date of
operation for the complex. The Japanese may drag their
feet on the completion of the plant if it becomes ap-
parent that there will be no market for its output.
The minister also evaded the question of preferential
access to the Japanese market for the plant's output,
suggesting instead that the developers would have four
years to consider marketing arrangements.
With Japan on record as supporting Singapore's diesel
engine plant, Komoto was compelled to defend his commit-
ment to conduct a feasibility study for a similar factory
in Indonesia.
Malaysia
The Malaysians were apparently the most disappointed
of all Komoto's hosts. Indeed, Komoto finessed virtually
every request they advanced. In responding to a Malay-
sian suggestion that Japan restructure its lumber tariffs
to encourage lumber processing in supplier countries,
Komoto replied that such a step could create severe dif-
ficulties for Japanese industry. He also turned down a
Malaysian request to reduce the Japanese tariff on palm
oil--Komoto said the product was already competing very
effectively in the Japanese market--and deflected the
idea that Japan reduce its domestic urea production to
open the way for more imports from urea plants in Indo-
nesia and Malaysia. In so doing, Japanese officials pri-
vately noted that the government had managed to get re-
luctant domestic producers to agree to earlier cutbacks
only by considerable armtwisting.
Since the Malaysians prefer that the Japanese ex-
port their labor-intensive and low-technology industries,
Komoto urged the Malaysian Government to improve the
local investment climate in order to attract Japanese
firms. In an unprecedented move, the minister also
raised this issue publicly in order to register Japan's
concern over Malaysian actions that inhibit Japanese in-
vestors.
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On the subject of aid, Komoto announced that Tokyo
and Kuala Lumpur are close to agreement on projects to
be financed under the fourth yen credit of $85 million
and would shortly begin negotiations on a fifth yen credit
for the same amount. These credits were agreed to pre-
viously, however, and none of this aid is new.
Komoto also sidestepped Malaysia's request for a
commitment to an export earnings stabilization agreement
between Japan and ASEAN by suggesting that talks be
held at the working level before the next ASEAN meeting.
certainly be raised with Sonoda this week.
Since these talks, originally set for 29-30 May, have
now been indefinitely postponed because of schedule
conflicts in the ASEAN countries, the issue will almost
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Kore,-: Cr__Conditions
Severe drought conditions--similar to those in North
China--have adversely affected the South Korean winter
barley crop and threaten summer rice. These crops ac-
count respectively for 20 and 65 percent of the nation's
food grain production.
Below normal precipitation since last fall and
negligible amounts this spring will reduce winter barley
yields and may damage the recently transplanted summer
rice crop. Field observations in the major barley-
producing area in late May indicate that most of the bar-
ley crop, normally harvested in early June, had ripened
prematurely, many grain heads had not fully developed,
and plants were stunted. The relatively small amount
of barley that had not ripened, however, was in better
condition, and near normal yields are expected. Farmers
interviewed estimated that their losses would range from
20 to 80 percent, but Korean farmers traditionally under-
estimate their production levels in order to avoid full
taxation. Nonetheless, it was evident that the most
severe losses will be in unirrigated upland fields. The
government has estimated these losses at 10 to 30 per-
cent, but this may be low to conceal buying intentions
in foreign grain markets.
Unless there is adequate precipitation soon to re-
plenish irrigation water supplies, serious losses in this
year's rice crop are likely. The upper air flow over
northern China and the Korean peflinsula s holding a
band of dry clear air between 34 and 38 latitude and
is forecast to remain static, with no significant relief
anticipated until at least late June.
The summer rice crop was observed in varying stages
of growth, ranging from newly planted seedbeds to fully
transplanted fields, throughout the major rice growing
areas. Numerous seedbeds lacked water, the soil was
drying and beginning to crack in some areas, and reser-
voirs and ponds in several areas were very low or dry.
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An extensive labor mobilization campaign, and strict
water rationing underscore government concern over the
widespread lack of irrigation water in South Korea. Mil-
itary personnel, local militia, and school children have
been sent to the more seriously affected areas to form
bucket brigades to irrigate the more remote rice seed-
beds. Furthermore, Minister of Agriculture and Fish-
eries Chang Tok-chin, announced on 28 May that free
fuel would be provided to farmers for the operation of
their irrigation pumps. Chang also reported that his
ministry "plans to supply unlimited amounts of govern-
ment-held rice" to offset any shortfall in production
in 1978.
A rice shortfall would have no serious effect on
the nation's food supply, but would be a setback to
South Korea's recently attained self-sufficiency in rice.
Production since 1974 has reached bumper levels, and
stocks amounted to 1.7 million tons in November 1977.
According to government estimates stocks were projected
to reach 2.4 million tons in November 1978. South Korea
harvested a record 6 million tons of rice in 1977, and
yields were reported to be the highest in the world.
Historically a major rice importer, South Korea achieved
self-sufficiency in rice in 1976 allowing Seoul to lift
restrictions on domestic rice consumption and sell 70,000
tons of rice to Indonesia on a deferred payment basis.
The barley situation is not nearly as favorable be-
cause of the lack of adequate reserves. After achieving
self-sufficiency in 1975, the 1977 crop was reduced by
more than 50 percent by cold, dry weather, and imports
of approximately 400,000 tons were required. Seoul an-
ticipated no rice or barley imports this year, but will
probably have to import significant quantities of barley
again to meet shortfalls.
In contrast to the situation in the South, crop con-
ditions appear generally favorable in North Korea. Pre-
cipitation was near normal from last September through
April, but May has been dry with no significant precipi-
tation anywhere on the peninsula. Nevertheless, water
for irrigation appears plentiful in North Korea.
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North Korea: Chronology
China and North Korea sign 1978 trade
protocol in Pyongyang. (U)
Choe Chong-kun, formerly vice minister
of foreign trade, is identified for the
first time as Foreign Trade Minister.
Choe assumes the title from Vice Pre-
mier Kye Ung-tae, who has taken on
added responsibilities since he was
moved up in the leadership hierarchy
last November. (U)
Hua Kuo-feng, Chinese party chairman
and Premier, makes an official friend-
ship visit to North Korea. There is
no joint communique issued following
the visit. (U)
11 May
13 May
The Military Armistice Commission holds
its 386th meeting at the request of the
UN Command. The UNC side protests in-
trusion of an armed North Korean es-
pionage boat into South Korean waters
on 28 April. (U)
Pyongyang radio reports without com-
ment the Chinese Foreign ministry pro-
test of 11 May concerning the Soviet
border intrusion in northeast China
on 9 May. The incident occurred while
Chinese leader Hua Kuo-feng was in
North Korea. (U)
Kim Il-song tells visiting Japan
Socialist Party chairman Asukata that
North Korea is prepared to extend the
private fisheries agreement that per-
mits Japanese fishing inside North
Korea's 200-mile economic zone in the
Sea of Japan. (U)
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15 May So Yun--sok is identified for the first
time as chief secretary of the Pyong-
yang city party committee, replacing
Kang Hyon-su. So was named an alter-
nate member of the party Central Com-
mittee in 1970, but he has not made
any public appearances in recent years.
(U)
15-20 May The Coordinating Bureau of the non-
aligned movement meets in Havana. The
final communique issued on 22 May in-
cludes a paragraph on Korea supporting
North Korea's longstanding demand for
the dissolution of the UN Command, the
withdrawal of US troops, and the re-
placement of the armistice agreement
with a peace agreement. (U)
19 May South Korean patrol boats sink a North
Korean boat off the east coast a short
distance south of the seaward extension
of the Military Demarcation Line and
pick up eight survivors. Seoul asserts
it was an espionage boat, but Pyongyang
says it was a fishing boat that had
drifted off course. (U)
20-23 May Romanian President Ceausescu visits
North Korea between visits to China and
Indochina. North Korea and Romania is-
sue a joint statement reaffirming their
close bilateral relation. (U)
27 May
The Military Armistice Commission
holds its 387th meeting at the request
of the UN Command. Originally called
to make further protests about the 28
April incident on the south coast, the
meeting is used by the two sides to
publicize their contrasting accounts of
the 19 May incident off the east coast.
(U)
29 May Vice Foreign Minister Yi Chong-mok at-
tends a meeting of nonaligned foreign
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29 May
30 May
31 May
ministers at UN headquarters. On 31
May he makes a courtesy call on UN
Secretary General Waldheim. (U)
Kim Tok-Chun, chairman of the organiz-
ing committee for the 35th world table
tennis championship matches scheduled
for Pyongyang in the spring of 1979,
hosts a dinner for Roy Evans, president
of the International Table Tennis Federa-
tion. (U)
An editorial in the party daily calls
for a 11100-day battle" to celebrate the
national day (9 September) by fulfilling
the industrial production goal (unspeci-
fied) one month ahead of schedule. (U)
Chen Chien-wu, Chinese member of the
Military Armistice Commission, departs
for China at the end of his assignment.
Chen was assigned to the commission in
December 1973. (U)
The Military Armistice Commission holds
its 388th meeting at the request of North
Korea. The UN Command announces that
South Korea will release the eight North
Korean survivors from the 19 May inci-
dent. (U)
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